Analysis If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest player of all time?

[Corn Cobbers]

Daisy Pearce...not bad. Matthews has gone with Buddy and then GAJ and Pendlebury for players this century. No Martin mention:

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/leigh-matthews-says-buddy-franklin-is-player-of-the-century/news-story/f661d7494773b57eca96d20e9daa3f18

“He’s been the common denominator of this century. I think longevity of elite performance is what you’re looking at. He’s played for 19 seasons, so he’s had the longevity, 350 games, 1000+ goals.

Players can have great games and great seasons, we’re talking about a great career.

We can forget about how dominant Gary Ablett Jr. was for his seven or eight years or a decade or so. He won that Player’s Association award about five years in a row.

It just happens that Buddy’s probably going to be in his last year but you can look back on just the statistical — 1000+ goals in an era where goals are probably twice as valuable in the previous eras. He’s averaged three goals a game not playing as a Lockett, Hudson, Dunstall-type full forward, just as a running forward half player.”

The GOAT says longevity is very important in these discussions, more than one off games/seasons. He particularly likes near 20 years with more than half of them uber elite. Interesting.

This should be pinned. Discussion over!

 

[AstuteTiger]

This should be pinned. Discussion over!

Indeed it should discussion over when Matthews himself who most say is the greatest of all, said, "only one player can be compared to him" and that is DUSTIN MARTIN.

 

[STRONGandBALD]

I really shouldn't have to help you like this, but if you did want a Geelong player who played something closer the Martin role of splitting midfield time with the odd stint of 1v1 deep forward (but with far less minutes doing the latter), it would be Jimmy Bartel, not GAJ. Or from the reverse angle, someone like SJ or Chapman who played and did most damage deep forward but then could also push up the ground and generally kept very busy disposals wise. But they weren't necessarily 1v1 exploitation players and there were two of them to share the role - i.e 2 goals 2 assists each might not look impressive but if you have a duo landing 4 goals 4 assists between them, it does a fair job.

For Richmond, a swarming midfield/rebound defence plan with bodies around the ball and space up the field for a 1v1 with Martin or JRoo made more sense. The Cats it was about feeding as many forwards as possible but I have no doubt the main guys at stoppage GAJ and Bartel's SI numbers would've been insane during our peak.

Well then, we’ll never know since you want to take into account minutes mid/fwd and whatever. From my eye test anyway and the way commentators, coaches and players react when when Dusty is one out near the goals is that more often than not he will win it which makes him extremely dangerous. Didn’t feel that with any other player since 2017.

They literally had to have 2 taggers planned for when Dusty went he went forward or mid.

 

[Mr Meow]

Indeed it should discussion over when Matthews himself who most say is the greatest of all, said, "only one player can be compared to him" and that is DUSTIN MARTIN.

View attachment 1724591

"Only player who my hybrid mid/forward role resembles"

He just weeks ago had a chance to pick his three from this century. Martin's name didn't come up once.

 

[Mr Meow]

Well then, we’ll never know since you want to take into account minutes mid/fwd and whatever. From my eye test anyway and the way commentators, coaches and players react when when Dusty is one out near the goals is that more often than not he will win it which makes him extremely dangerous. Didn’t feel that with any other player since 2017.

Agree with this, moreso 2017-2020 - in particular those last two years he really was toying with whichever good honest trier attempted to stick with him. But yeah it's not a stick to bash other players with. The brief times Jimmy Bartel did go forward he was a difference maker - pack marks, crumbing snaps - you name it. Ablett's role was just never like that. Like I said, minus the marking, Chapman was more of a similar role type to Martin. We just spread the load between two of them, including SJ, because we had the depth of players forward of centre to do it. All 4 (Chapman, SJ, Ablett, Bartel) were champion finals players.

 

[STRONGandBALD]

Daisy Pearce...not bad. Matthews has gone with Buddy and then GAJ and Pendlebury for players this century. No Martin mention:

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/leigh-matthews-says-buddy-franklin-is-player-of-the-century/news-story/f661d7494773b57eca96d20e9daa3f18

“He’s been the common denominator of this century. I think longevity of elite performance is what you’re looking at. He’s played for 19 seasons, so he’s had the longevity, 350 games, 1000+ goals.

Players can have great games and great seasons, we’re talking about a great career.

We can forget about how dominant Gary Ablett Jr. was for his seven or eight years or a decade or so. He won that Player’s Association award about five years in a row.

It just happens that Buddy’s probably going to be in his last year but you can look back on just the statistical — 1000+ goals in an era where goals are probably twice as valuable in the previous eras. He’s averaged three goals a game not playing as a Lockett, Hudson, Dunstall-type full forward, just as a running forward half player.”

The GOAT says longevity is very important in these discussions, more than one off games/seasons. He particularly likes near 20 years with more than half of them uber elite. Interesting.

He’s basing it of games played if you listen closely. Hence this comment was made regarding Buddy’s 350th.

And I’m pretty sure you don’t even agree with him about Buddy being better than GAJ.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Indeed it should discussion over when Matthews himself who most say is the greatest of all, said, "only one player can be compared to him" and that is DUSTIN MARTIN.

View attachment 1724591

When was that exactly? The day after a grand final?

Lethal clearly states, just 2 weeks ago, that the top 3 this century, in order, are Franklin, Pendles and Ablett.

Case closed!!

 

[AstuteTiger]

"Only player who my hybrid mid/forward role resembles"

He just weeks ago had a chance to pick his three from this century. Martin's name didn't come up once.

Are you really going down this path? Did you not read what came out of Matthews's mouth? He said it, and theirs no greater compliment that one can make, and he did by comparing Martin to himself and many say Matthews is the greatest.

 

[Noidnadroj]

It's just a weird way to describe it. He was your only, and best, 50/50 midfielder forward. He didn't split the atom and make two Martin's. If the point was that if you take him out Richmond would lose both the midfield battle AND the forward battle i.e he completely carried both groups of players across 12 finals, I still don't agree. The disposal numbers are great and even this year he racks them up across the half forward line in the same way. When the midfield unit are functioning well he looks something like his old self; otherwise fairly average.

I do agree that most players don't have the skill set to play that role as effectively, likewise that no team has ever been drilled to exploit that as well. But sure it did require those functioning parts operating at basically full capacity. Otherwise he's been good but not amazing in finals. It would be the same this year if Richmond made it. If they got back to 2017-2020 levels I have no doubt his numbers and impact could be great again. Otherwise probably not.

With constant reference to ‘got going when the team started dominating all over the field’ shows a lack of understanding of modern footy.

We often see teams with a fairly equal number of forward 50 entries in a game. Or in games where I50 entries are fairly level, sometimes a team loses by 10-goals. Or a team with more midfield possession and more I50 entries and more clearances etc… loses and it looks like they’ve been completely outplayed. How can that be?

Being a successful team consistently is based on your ability to convert I50 entries into goals. The best way to do this is by winning contests forward of the ball, and then when you’ve won that contest converting your chances with goals and not points or OOF.

We’ve seen Carlton dominate many games this season in respect to I50 dominance via midfield ascendancy … but they lose because they can’t win contests up forward, or on the rare occasions they do they don’t convert.

Or the 2019 QF … Lions absolutely dominated the first 20-minutes … but Cameron couldn’t win a contest v Grimes and when anyone did get an opportunity to score they kept kicking points. Martin won multiple contests (beat Rich in a 1v1, roved a ruck contest for a goal, beat Hodge in a 1v1, dribbled a goal from a contest from 45m etc….) and kicked 6-straight. If Cameron wins his contests as Martin did and kicks straight Lions win and Richmond aren’t Premiers.

And this is what set Martin apart - he wins contests more than any other player, and when he does he converted with goals. Of course his teammates are getting the ball down there … which happens approx 50-55 times every single game for every single team, win/lose or draw…. but his teammates are not winning the contest and kicking the ball through the big sticks for him. See that’s the hard part of football and if you can’t execute this well you can’t win finals.

So the notion of ‘being on the end of the good work from up the field’ in highly contested finals games shows a lack of understanding of how hard it is to win contests and convert those into goals.


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[Mr Meow]

He’s basing it of games played if you listen closely. Hence this comment was made regarding Buddy’s 350th.

And I’m pretty sure you don’t even agree with him about Buddy being better than GAJ.

Bit strange that he didn't mention 435 gamer Boomer Harvey or 407 gamer Shaun Burgoyne then. Or Fletcher, Robert Harvey, Madden, Mundy, Bradley, Goodes or Johnson.

 

[AstuteTiger]

When was that exactly? The day after a grand final?

Lethal clearly states, just 2 weeks ago, that the top 3 this century, in order, are Franklin, Pendles and Ablett.

Case closed!!

Oh dear....Does it matter when it was said Matthews said it. Are you seriously questioning Matthews? So what are you trying to say he didn't mean what he said Turn it up.

 

[STRONGandBALD]

Daisy Pearce...not bad. Matthews has gone with Buddy and then GAJ and Pendlebury for players this century. No Martin mention:

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/leigh-matthews-says-buddy-franklin-is-player-of-the-century/news-story/f661d7494773b57eca96d20e9daa3f18

“He’s been the common denominator of this century. I think longevity of elite performance is what you’re looking at. He’s played for 19 seasons, so he’s had the longevity, 350 games, 1000+ goals.

Players can have great games and great seasons, we’re talking about a great career.

We can forget about how dominant Gary Ablett Jr. was for his seven or eight years or a decade or so. He won that Player’s Association award about five years in a row.

It just happens that Buddy’s probably going to be in his last year but you can look back on just the statistical — 1000+ goals in an era where goals are probably twice as valuable in the previous eras. He’s averaged three goals a game not playing as a Lockett, Hudson, Dunstall-type full forward, just as a running forward half player.”

The GOAT says longevity is very important in these discussions, more than one off games/seasons. He particularly likes near 20 years with more than half of them uber elite. Interesting.

Also see why he says about Pendles. Exactly the same as what I’m saying. He’s never really been remarkable just very good for a long time.

 

[STRONGandBALD]

Bit strange that he didn't mention 435 gamer Boomer Harvey or 407 gamer Shaun Burgoyne then. Or Fletcher, Robert Harvey, Madden, Mundy, Bradley, Goodes or Johnson.

Cause they’ve never been the best player in a single season.

Maybe I should’ve said “mostly” games played.

 

[STRONGandBALD]

When was that exactly? The day after a grand final?

Lethal clearly states, just 2 weeks ago, that the top 3 this century, in order, are Franklin, Pendles and Ablett.

Case closed!!

He literally just said Pendles has really never been remarkable.

 

[Mr Meow]

With constant reference to ‘got going when the team started dominating all over the field’ shows a lack of understanding of modern footy.

We often see teams with a fairly equal number of forward 50 entries in a game. Or in games where I50 entries are fairly level, sometimes a team loses by 10-goals. Or a team with more midfield possession and more I50 entries and more clearances etc… loses and it looks like they’ve been completely outplayed. How can that be?

Being a successful team consistently is based on your ability to convert I50 entries into goals. The best way to do this is by winning contests forward of the ball, and then when you’ve won that contest converting your chances with goals and not points or OOF.

We’ve seen Carlton dominate many games this season in respect to I50 dominance via midfield ascendancy … but they lose because they can’t win contests up forward, or on the rare occasions they do they don’t convert.

Or the 2019 QF … Lions absolutely dominated the first 20-minutes … but Cameron couldn’t win a contest v Grimes and when anyone did get an opportunity to score they kept kicking points. Martin won multiple contests (beat Rich in a 1v1, roved a ruck contest for a goal, beat Hodge in a 1v1, dribbled a goal from a contest from 45m etc….) and kicked 6-straight. If Cameron wins his contests as Martin did and kicks straight Lions win and Richmond aren’t Premiers.

And this is what set Martin apart - he wins contests more than any other player, and when he does he converted with goals. Of course his teammates are getting the ball down there … which happens approx 50-55 times every single game for every single team, win/lose or draw…. but his teammates are not winning the contest and kicking the ball through the big sticks for him. See that’s the hard part of football and if you can’t execute this well you can’t win finals.

So the notion of ‘being on the end of the good work from up the field’ in highly contested finals games shows a lack of understanding of how hard it is to win contests and convert those into goals.


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Carlton don't have the players, gameplan or tactician that Richmond had. I went into every Richmond final I watched (not just Geelong games) knowing the defensive brick wall, pressure all over the ground and swarming counter attacks or stoppage bursts would overwhelm sides - especially second halves. But I guess because you could give praise to Cotch, Prestia, Edwards and throw a blanket over most of the defenders you can't really nail it down to an individual as easily. Martin with the icing on the end, Chief Destroyer and a great one at that, lots of scores from half forward of course that catches the eye. I just didn't see them as "carrying" type performances in general. Maybe the last two 2020 games. But in reality the PF was one of those nailbiters where the team with slightly more know how edged it, the GF was Geelong being bullied and outclassed again pillar to post as it went on.

I do respect the fact that Martin consistently outfoxed his opponents, played very well and was the pick of the Richmond players overall those years. But did I think the performances as a whole were massively beyond someone like Chapman at Geelong? Not at all. Martin has the hype behind him but numbers wise and from the eye test they were not far apart at all. Geelong just had a few more players neutrals were ready to accept as stars, rightly or wrongly.

 

[Mr Meow]

He literally just said Pendles has really never been remarkable.

"don’t know whether he’s done the remarkable that often. He hasn’t done the spectacular as much as Buddy would have."

He doesn't have the same highlight reel as Franklin. Let's be carefully how we use the word literally, because it's almost the easiest way to self diagnose as a fool.

This was a pretty good litmus test to be honest. He lists his best 3 players of the century and people are explaining that's not what he meant.

 

[Mr Meow]

Also see why he says about Pendles. Exactly the same as what I’m saying. He’s never really been remarkable just very good for a long time.

Not remarkable as often (as Buddy). Still no mention of Martin in the article. Longevity of being truly elite the test. I'm assuming he only thinks Martin was for 3-4 years (the years he was happy to be compared for player type).

 

[STRONGandBALD]

Not remarkable as often (as Buddy). Still no mention of Martin in the article. Longevity of being truly elite the test. I'm assuming he only thinks Martin was for 3-4 years (the years he was happy to be compared for player type).

The remarkable part was in general. The spectacular part was specifically in regards to Buddy. Hence the full stop instead of remarkable AND spectacular as Buddy.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Oh dear....Does it matter when it was said Matthews said it. Are you seriously questioning Matthews? So what are you trying to say he didn't mean what he said Turn it up.

Of course it bloody matters when he said it!! The day after a GF you're gushing. But now he's had time to think about it... well it's Buddy, Pendles and Ablett, no mention of Dusty, sorry mate!

 

[Mr Meow]

The remarkable part was in general. The spectacular part was specifically in regards to Buddy.

Why would he bother putting him in his top 3 players this century then? Does he just not really have an idea about the greatest players?

 

[Noidnadroj]

If anything, especially 2019-2020 and moreso come finals, his role felt more like Chapman than GAJ. I take it Martin was more hybrid mid/forward 2021 than 2016 if we want the best 5 year comparison in the role:

2007-2011 Chapman: 24.3 disposals, 1.4 goals and 0.8 goal assists (2.2 goal contributions) per game
2017-2021 Martin: 25.2 disposals, 1.3 goals and 1.0 goal assists (2.3 goal contributions) per game

2007-2011 Chapman finals only (minus St Kilda QF first quarter injured): 13 games at 21.8 disposals, 1.9 goals and 0.8 goal assists (2.7 goal contributions) per game
2017-2022 Martin finals only: 13 games at 21.7 disposals, 2 goals and 1.2 goals (3.2 goal contributions) per game

Martin edges it, moreso in finals with a solid gap in goal assists. Enough to account for a higher proportion of closer or losing finals, and stronger opposition? Not sure. Geelong did spread the goals around immaculately. But it's closer than you'd probably assume. Chappy was a little champ, no doubt, so it's hardly an insult. If we didn't happen to have the best midfielder of his generation playing though, maybe this "he was our best forward AND midfielder" argument could fly, too.

Bonus points if I trigger the rant about shorter games in 2020.

Bahahaha … ok, so let me review what you’ve done here … keeping in mind Martin’s numbers are STILL superior even though :

1. You’ve taken out Chapman’s injured game but
left in Martin’s 2018PF when injured.

2. You’ve thrown in Martin’s 2022 EF game when coming back after a 10-week hamstring injury. But then for some weird reason haven’t included Chappy’s 2012 EF performance (19 touches with zero goals and zero goal assists - gee, I wonder why that little game was ‘forgotten’ despite being immediately after 2011, but Dusty’s game 2-years later after 10-weeks out was thrown in.. nice work!)

3. You’ve not added 25% for the 4 x 2020 finals. Of course there has to be some consideration to shortened game time, to say there shouldn’t be is just deliberately fudging reality.

So let’s see Chappy 2007-2011 taking out his injured game, versus Martin 2017-20 taking out his injured game, and add 25% for the 4 x 2020 finals. Let’s see how those numbers look if we want your assessment to resemble something close to being fair.



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[STRONGandBALD]

Why would he bother putting him in his top 3 players this century then? Does he just not really have an idea about the greatest players?

He didn’t if you read carefully. He used Pendles as a comparison for longevity as he as been one of the best at it but didn’t say he was top 3.

You think he would’ve said Pendles hasn’t been remarkable that often but still put him 3rd?

 

[Corn Cobbers]

He didn’t if you read carefully. He used Pendles as a comparison for longevity as he as been one of the best at it but didn’t say he was top 3.

You think he would’ve said Pendles hasn’t been remarkable that often but still put him 3rd?

Why did he mention Pendles and Ablett but not Rhys Palmer?

To reiterate, according to Lethal, this century, its:

1. Franklin
2. Pendlebury
3. Ablett

Daylight to whoever might be fourth... Fyfe? Danger?

 

[Mr Meow]

Bahahaha … ok, so let me review what you’ve done here … keeping in mind Martin’s numbers are STILL superior even though :

1. You’ve taken out Chapman’s injured game but
left in Martin’s 2018PF when injured.

2. You’ve thrown in Martin’s 2022 EF game when coming back after a 10-week hamstring injury. But then for some weird reason haven’t included Chappy’s 2012 EF performance (19 touches with zero goals and zero goal assists - gee, I wonder why that little game was ‘forgotten’ despite being immediately after 2011, but Dusty’s game 2-years later after 10-weeks out was thrown in.. nice work!)

3. You’ve not added 25% for the 4 x 2020 finals. Of course there has to be some consideration to shortened game time, to say there shouldn’t be is just deliberately fudging reality.

So let’s see Chappy 2007-2011 taking out his injured game, versus Martin 2017-20 taking out his injured game, and add 25% for the 4 x 2020 finals. Let’s see how those numbers look if we want your assessment to resemble something close to being fair.



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Martin played 76% game time, he was lower than that a few times that season - found 18 possessions. Danger and Selwood had less game time in finals last year.

Chapman's 53% was in the lowest few in his entire Geelong career - 7 touches, limited game time with a torn hammy.

Fair enough if you think this is the same situation.

Oh and the rest of the caveats are coming for Martin now regarding 2022. Chapman had 13 games from 2007-2011, Martin had 12. Where do I find the 13th, the 2015 EF?

And my wish came true about the adding 25% argument, something I have never applied when using players numbers from that season including Ablett. Shorten the games and you throw out normal structures. Like how players at half time can have 24 touches but not go onto 48. It's an unknown. Go with what you have. That was the season we had. A weird, quirky one I am still happy to recognise unlike a lot of neutrals. No need to stat pad.

Their numbers are remarkably similar for "undisputed finals GOAT" vs "handy forward flanker of a champion team". Especially when we had a clone on the other flank sharing half of those "end of the chain destroyer" duties.

 

[Mr Meow]

He didn’t if you read carefully. He used Pendles as a comparison for longevity as he as been one of the best at it but didn’t say he was top 3.

You think he would’ve said Pendles hasn’t been remarkable that often but still put him 3rd?

There's enough doubt for a reasonable Martin vs Pendelbury debate to be had. I think Matthews thoughts on Franklin and GAJ meanwhile were abundantly clear. If you can't concede that then I know you're simply doubling down on a position irrespective of facts, so can't take the Pendlebury comments seriously either.