Analysis If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest player of all time?

[Meteoric Rise]

I was going to ignore this. But I just couldn’t.

The games were won in the middle. The work up the field is what won the game. That’s the “masterpiece” if we stretch the definition a lot.

Dusty’s performance is the equivalent of putting a fancy frame on a painting. The painting was the hard work.

Holy hell have Dusty’s performances become something else in tigers supporters eyes.

If Dustin Martin was little more than some sort of fancy example of style over substance, or someone who needed things put on a platter for him, he would not have been made the biggest offer in the history of the competition BEFORE all his finals heroics and he would not be on the biggest average contract even now, 6 years after signing it. The clubs and list managers will know better than anyone the relative value of players. They knew Dusty was the most valuable player in the game before the 2017 finals.

It is no good intimating Richmond supporters are the only people to recognise the level of Martin's finals performances. They are officially recognised by the industry and nobody has come close to achieving similar recognition for their finals performances.

 

[Mr Meow]

Why did he mention Pendles and Ablett but not Rhys Palmer?

To reiterate, according to Lethal, this century, its:

1. Franklin
2. Pendlebury
3. Ablett

Daylight to whoever might be fourth... Fyfe? Danger?

To be fair the article writer makes the implication about order of Pendlebury and Ablett, the actual quotes don't put one above the other - they just have Franklin ahead of both and no other players in the conversation. My taking of the quotes is his praise for GAJ was greater but I'm really not insecure enough to care - it's a great compliment for all 3 players.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

To be fair the article writer makes the implication about order of Pendlebury and Ablett, the actual quotes don't put one above the other - they just have Franklin ahead of both and no other players in the conversation. My taking of the quotes is his praise for GAJ was greater but I'm really not insecure enough to care - it's a great compliment for all 3 players.

Yeah I agree after another read

So it's:

1. Franklin
2. Ablett
3. Pendlebury

The Big Three of the 21st century!

 

[Mr Meow]

Bahahaha … ok, so let me review what you’ve done here … keeping in mind Martin’s numbers are STILL superior even though :

1. You’ve taken out Chapman’s injured game but
left in Martin’s 2018PF when injured.

2. You’ve thrown in Martin’s 2022 EF game when coming back after a 10-week hamstring injury. But then for some weird reason haven’t included Chappy’s 2012 EF performance (19 touches with zero goals and zero goal assists - gee, I wonder why that little game was ‘forgotten’ despite being immediately after 2011, but Dusty’s game 2-years later after 10-weeks out was thrown in.. nice work!)

3. You’ve not added 25% for the 4 x 2020 finals. Of course there has to be some consideration to shortened game time, to say there shouldn’t be is just deliberately fudging reality.

So let’s see Chappy 2007-2011 taking out his injured game, versus Martin 2017-20 taking out his injured game, and add 25% for the 4 x 2020 finals. Let’s see how those numbers look if we want your assessment to resemble something close to being fair.



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Chappy was working against better defenders, midfields and coaches by and large too. NS and late match winning goal in a very very tight GF his side trailed most of the day (man, you want team lifting, look at that performance in a wet scrap) in is icing.

 

[STRONGandBALD]

Why did he mention Pendles and Ablett but not Rhys Palmer?

To reiterate, according to Lethal, this century, its:

1. Franklin
2. Pendlebury
3. Ablett

Daylight to whoever might be fourth... Fyfe? Danger?

I don’t even know who Rhys Palmer is. So there is your answer.

If you think he rates Pendles over players like Judd, GAJ your dreaming.

 

[STRONGandBALD]

To be fair the article writer makes the implication about order of Pendlebury and Ablett, the actual quotes don't put one above the other - they just have Franklin ahead of both and no other players in the conversation. My taking of the quotes is his praise for GAJ was greater but I'm really not insecure enough to care - it's a great compliment for all 3 players.

Told you earlier about being mates with Pies supporters. They will double cross you first chance they get. Pendles over GAJ

 

[Mr Meow]

Yeah I agree after another read

So it's:

1. Franklin
2. Ablett
3. Pendlebury

The Big Three of the 21st century!

One last spot on Rushmore for players starting their career in the 21st century!

There's a lot of good options. Martin, Judd, Goodes, N.Riewoldt, Pavlich, Hodge, Dangerfield, Fyfe?

 

[Noidnadroj]

Martin played 76% game time, he was lower than that a few times that season - found 18 possessions. Danger and Selwood had less game time in finals last year.

Chapman's 53% was in the lowest few in his entire Geelong career - 7 touches, limited game time with a torn hammy.

Fair enough if you think this is the same situation.

Oh and the rest of the caveats are coming for Martin now regarding 2022. Chapman had 13 games from 2007-2011, Martin had 12. Where do I find the 13th, the 2015 EF?

And my wish came true about the adding 25% argument, something I have never applied when using players numbers from that season including Ablett. Shorten the games and you throw out normal structures. Like how players at half time can have 24 touches but not go onto 48. It's an unknown. Go with what you have. That was the season we had. A weird, quirky one I am still happy to recognise unlike a lot of neutrals. No need to stat pad.

Their numbers are remarkably similar for "undisputed finals GOAT" vs "handy forward flanker of a champion team". Especially when we had a clone on the other flank sharing half of those "end of the chain destroyer" duties.

Just admit you massaged the numbers to suit Chappy and concede you don’t want to provide any semblance of reality.

And if you’re using averages why does it matter if it’s 13 v 12 finals? Aren’t you trying to compare the finals performances of similar players during their respective dynasty periods for their teams?

And their injury situation wasn’t identical, but yeah, let’s take out Chappy’s 53% game time when injured and leave in Martin’s game time when injured as it was 76% and not 53%.

And yeah, let’s not make any allowance at all for games running 25% shorter - even though those games had 25% less goals, 25% less disposals, 25% less GA’s … basically 25% less everything. But nah, doesn’t make sense to consider that when trying to compare like for like.

FMD


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[Mr Meow]

Told you earlier about being mates with Pies supporters. They will double cross you first chance they get. Pendles over GAJ

Pendles is a champ. I obviously have GAJ ahead as his peak was also incredibly long but just a step higher. But I don't find it disrespectful as a comparison and I've no real issue with Matthews or others choosing Franklin either. There's just happened to be a fair bit of Ablett diminishing going on from those who would love to put Dusty ahead, that's all.

 

[Mr Meow]

Just admit you massaged the numbers to suit Chappy and concede you don’t want to provide any semblance of reality.

And if you’re using averages why does it matter if it’s 13 v 12 finals? Aren’t you trying to compare the finals performances of similar players during their respective dynasty periods for their teams?

And their injury situation wasn’t identical, but yeah, let’s take out Chappy’s 53% game time when injured and leave in Martin’s game time when injured as it was 76% and not 53%.

And yeah, let’s not make any allowance at all for games running 25% shorter - even though those games had 25% less goals, 25% less disposals, 25% less GA’s … basically 25% less everything. But nah, doesn’t make sense to consider that when trying to compare like for like.

FMD


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I mean I would've thought a player going from average 21 disposals down to 7 rather than 24 down to 18 showed who was impeded more, and 50ish % game time or less quite obviously shows the minutes were massively down too. You're just being a cry baby about it. I wonder if 85 down to 76 is closer to "normal" game time than it is down to 53%. Low 40 minutes vs just over 60.

The tantrum about the shortened matches in 2020 is entertaining but unfortunately something you're going to have to live with. It's a wonder afl.com.au didn't just apply a multiplier on their stats page. Or in shorter Test matches due to weather disruptions they apply a multiplier (as a batsman may have got out sooner playing a rash shot against the clock, than if he had a full match).

The numbers are remarkably close.

 

[Mr Meow]

Just admit you massaged the numbers to suit Chappy and concede you don’t want to provide any semblance of reality.

And if you’re using averages why does it matter if it’s 13 v 12 finals? Aren’t you trying to compare the finals performances of similar players during their respective dynasty periods for their teams?

And their injury situation wasn’t identical, but yeah, let’s take out Chappy’s 53% game time when injured and leave in Martin’s game time when injured as it was 76% and not 53%.

And yeah, let’s not make any allowance at all for games running 25% shorter - even though those games had 25% less goals, 25% less disposals, 25% less GA’s … basically 25% less everything. But nah, doesn’t make sense to consider that when trying to compare like for like.

FMD


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Richmond supporters will do anything to strip Martin's finals career down to 4 years, and add disclaimers for the one game he worked through a niggle. 2008 and 2010 Geelong had a handful working through similar.

2022 Richmond were Stewart's bump and ARC away from landing a 4th flag. It's a fair data point. Martin was still only what, 30 or 31 years old?

I'm not even arguing Chapman was better. Just noting the hype machine compared to a no frills forward/mid, a very good finals player from a slightly earlier era. We don't have many players who had the roaming forward destroyer role - Geelong between SJ and Chapman split it, Martin did it for Richmond, Hawthorn didn't have one unless you count Buddy I guess - which is probably fair as a hybrid forward who pushed up the ground.

 

[H00t]

If Dustin Martin was little more than some sort of fancy example of style over substance, or someone who needed things put on a platter for him, he would not have been made the biggest offer in the history of the competition BEFORE all his finals heroics and he would not be on the biggest average contract even now, 6 years after signing it. The clubs and list managers will know better than anyone the relative value of players. They knew Dusty was the most valuable player in the game before the 2017 finals.

It is no good intimating Richmond supporters are the only people to recognise the level of Martin's finals performances. They are officially recognised by the industry and nobody has come close to achieving similar recognition for their finals performances.

So now what contract you are on determines how good you are?

But I also wasn’t saying that he was style over substance. Just that the game winning was done up in the ground in the middle and that while Dusty put in a very nice performances it only added to the win and was not the reason for the win itself.

And no one says Martin finals performances aren’t good. Just they aren’t above what has been done in the past. And certainly not to a level that puts him in any GOAT discussion whatsoever.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

One last spot on Rushmore for players starting their career in the 21st century!

There's a lot of good options. Martin, Judd, Goodes, N.Riewoldt, Pavlich, Hodge, Dangerfield, Fyfe?

Nick Daicos

 

[Meteoric Rise]

There are more ways to get involved in a game than one on one contests. Especially when they are fairly rare across a game.

It was a spelling mistake about scoring with Martin instead of without.

The tigers set up in 2017-2020 had Martin not doing any defence work purely so he could get involved in an as many scores as possible.

Yet plenty of other players from both Richmond and other teams in grand finals from both wins and losses got more score involvements than Dusty. By my quick count over 10 people have had 10 or more score involvements. Including totals of 15, 14, 14 and 13.

So these other players are doing more work being involved in scoring chains just not as the last or second last player. Brings down Dusty’s goals and goal assists in my eyes a little.

I honestly though it would be a lot higher.

Thank you I can see the points you are making more clearly now.

There are obvious errors in your position. "Martin not doing any defensive work" is simply not true. He applied pressure, layed tackles, etc. His main focus was on winning the ball and getting the team goals, this is true. Lots of players in history including recent times have had that as their main focus. None of them have done it anywhere near as well as Dusty in big games. The reason the team assigns him to the role of that being his main focus is because he is so reliably good at it, especially on the biggest stage.

Dusty's role is not to purely get involved in as many scores as possible. If you watch him play, he is relatively rarely a mere link in a scoring chain. Plenty of other players have tried to play Dusty's role that way and that is why they don't do it so well in finals. The easy possessions standing on your own are harder to find in finals. Occasionally you will get a Bayley Fritsch 2021 GF 6 goals and an assist from 5 contested possessions, but this is not reliable. It required opponents dropping uncontested marks into his lap etc.

Richmond plays a system that requires all of its parts functioning well in order for them to dominate good teams, like they did in many finals 2017-20. Richmond like all other strong teams had many top players and many excellent role players. If any of them don't do their job the team won't function as well. Some of those players were just elite players, like Rance, Riewoldt, Cotchin. Others had some elite traits like Edwards, Lambert, Vlastuin for eg. Other great finals teams tend to have some sort of comparable version of these players. What none of them have or did have was the hardest one to replicate. The guy who can play as an elite midfielder in big games then go and spend 1/3rd of his time forward in those games and outplay any forward this century in finals, certainly on a per minute spent forward basis, and that is not even close. And the reason he can do that is because you can't stop him simply by manning him up, he wins too many contests.

So if you watch Richmond's Grand Finals you will see the team still scores all the chain type scores that their opponents do. Dusty is not involved in too many of those because it is not his job to fall out of a contest and try to be the guy the ball gets popped over the top to. Other players can do that, every team has guys that can do it. Dusty wins contests and turns that into goals, in finals he has done this astonishingly well. If any other modern player could do it as well they would have done it. Many have had the opportunity. Dustin Martin's ability to win contests forward of the ball and convert that into goals has been a luxury that Richmond alone have had in the modern era, certainly this century. This is a huge part how Richmond could employ a system that saw 3 Grand Final opponents score 18 goals between them. 6 goals each on average. Because several of our other forwards could focus mainly on defence, trusting that Dusty will get enough out of his contests forward of the ball to put a clear margin on the opposition.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So now what contract you are on determines how good you are?

But I also wasn’t saying that he was style over substance. Just that the game winning was done up in the ground in the middle and that while Dusty put in a very nice performances it only added to the win and was not the reason for the win itself.

And no one says Martin finals performances aren’t good. Just they aren’t above what has been done in the past. And certainly not to a level that puts him in any GOAT discussion whatsoever.

Clubs sometimes make mistakes with their contracts, so of course they are not the sole determinant of how good a player is. But nobody is going to argue the offers made to Dustin Martin were mistakes. And it should not pass without comment his contract remains 6 years later the highest average paid to a player in history, and that he was made(and rejected) another offer about 30% higher than that.

For you to argue any other Richmond player did more to win those finals and grand finals than Dustin Martin would be foolish. If you are arguing that the 21 other Richmond players in combination did more to win those games than Dustin Martin, then LOL, yes. You are definitely onto something the H00t.

I think you might want to consider the coaches votes in those games. If the Richmond coaches thought other players were more effective than Martin then I somehow don't think he polls 28 of 30 coaches votes in 3 Grand Finals and 72 of a possible 90 coaches votes in the 9 winning finals leading to the 3 Premierships. Do you think that is wrong?

 

[Mr Meow]

Fine, let's just do all finals until Chapman was at the same age Martin was in his last final (31 years old). The first half Chapman hammy game can be included (it does induce a hefty hit you're right as he barely touched the ball) but his cameo as a sub in the Freo '13 final would be taking it to absurd levels.

Finals
Chapman finals (2004-2013 inclusive - 10 year period): 18 games at 20.0 disposals, 1.8 goals and 0.6 goal assists (2.4 goal contributions) per game

Martin finals (2013-2022 inclusive - 10 year period): 16 games at 21.9 disposals, 1.7 goals and 1.1 goal assists (2.8 goal contributions) per game

Overall (H&A + finals)
2007-2011 Chapman: 24.3 disposals, 1.4 goals and 0.8 goal assists (2.2 goal contributions) per game
2017-2021 Martin: 25.2 disposals, 1.3 goals and 1.0 goal assists (2.3 goal contributions) per game

If Martin plays another final this year we can use it and Chapman's 2014.

Martin's main point of difference seems to be finals assists, but he did mostly have J.Riewoldt and T.Lynch in their prime. Chapman for tall timber had Mooney, baby Hawkins and Podsiadly. And you had assist machine SJ on the other flank dishing them out like a machine gun.

 

[Noidnadroj]

I mean I would've thought a player going from average 21 disposals down to 7 rather than 24 down to 18 showed who was impeded more, and 50ish % game time or less quite obviously shows the minutes were massively down too. You're just being a cry baby about it. I wonder if 85 down to 76 is closer to "normal" game time than it is down to 53%. Low 40 minutes vs just over 60.

The tantrum about the shortened matches in 2020 is entertaining but unfortunately something you're going to have to live with. It's a wonder afl.com.au didn't just apply a multiplier on their stats page. Or in shorter Test matches due to weather disruptions they apply a multiplier (as a batsman may have got out sooner playing a rash shot against the clock, than if he had a full match).

The numbers are remarkably close.

So you spend copious amounts of time accusing us of comparing apples with oranges in respect to Martin’s 1v1 % v key forwards. And waxing lyrical about all the other elements that should be taken into account to assess the real data behind those numbers.

But when there’s an opportunity to provide an adjustment for games that ran 25% less time, there’s no ‘apples and oranges’ any more, it’s just ‘bad luck, get over it’.

Include Martin’s injured game, include a final 2-years after the Premiership era but not one of Chapman’s finals 1-year after Geelong’s era, and don’t include any adjustment for 2020 shorter games…. and despite all this massaging and selective ‘editing’ Martin’s finals record is STILL superior .

So yeah … close with Meow fairy dust on the stats , but not really that close at all. But don’t worry, many in this thread will slurp up your numbers without proper analysis.


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[Noidnadroj]

So now what contract you are on determines how good you are?

But I also wasn’t saying that he was style over substance. Just that the game winning was done up in the ground in the middle and that while Dusty put in a very nice performances it only added to the win and was not the reason for the win itself.

And no one says Martin finals performances aren’t good. Just they aren’t above what has been done in the past. And certainly not to a level that puts him in any GOAT discussion whatsoever.

Let’s see 2 x lists:

List 1: your list of players to have dominated 3 x finals series from start to finish culminating in 3 x flags.

List 2: a player who has been their teams best forward AND best midfielder across 3 x finals series.

I’ll wait.


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[Mr Meow]

So you spend copious amounts of time accusing us of comparing apples with oranges in respect to Martin’s 1v1 % v key forwards. And waxing lyrical about all the other elements that should be taken into account to assess the real data behind those numbers.

But when there’s an opportunity to provide an adjustment for games that ran 25% less time, there’s no ‘apples and oranges’ any more, it’s just ‘bad luck, get over it’.

Include Martin’s injured game, include a final 2-years after the Premiership era but not one of Chapman’s finals 1-year after Geelong’s era, and don’t include any adjustment for 2020 shorter games…. and despite all this massaging and selective ‘editing’ Martin’s finals record is STILL superior .

So yeah … close with Meow fairy dust on the stats , but not really that close at all. But don’t worry, many in this thread will slurp up your numbers without proper analysis.


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He could barely move (ever tried playing footy with a grade 1 hammy tear?), hence getting one of the lowest possession counts of his career. But given you found it incredibly important let's just throw it in.

Your 25% multiplier you can sit there in maniacal laughter at what the numbers could have been in a real game of footy. So take the numbers or we accept they weren't real games and so strip them from the record. Oh - didn't think so.

Still the numbers are remarkably close given Chappy had a clone on the other flank with maybe more impressive numbers (certainly over his career, I haven't looked at finals only). And still you will protest again under the guise of enjoying yourself.

 

[Mr Meow]

Let’s see 2 x lists:

List 1: your list of players to have dominated 3 x finals series from start to finish culminating in 3 x flags.

List 2: a player who has been their teams best forward AND best midfielder across 3 x finals series.

I’ll wait.


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I added the adjusted list to cover 10 years of finals at the same age to give a second angle. 13 games across 5 different seasons was pretty fair though for each, yes.

You now want a list of me actually assessing Chapman's finals performances? He was usually named in the best players in a truly stacked team. Ablett overall would be our best finals player of the time - Bartel, Chapman, Scarlett and Johnson probably a tiny fraction behind.

Martin being ahead of Prestia, JRoo, Houli, Cotchin and Edwards by a bigger distance doesn't automatically mean in absolute terms his finals performances were way above those. We just shared the "final links in the chain" duties between two superstar roaming forwards/mids, not one. And the numbers and performances to the naked eye held up very well.

I can't be bothered finding more examples from other teams but the more niche mid/forward position doesn't give as many options especially when all stats were available.

Sorry if this upsets you.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Fine, let's just do all finals until Chapman was at the same age Martin was in his last final (31 years old). The first half Chapman hammy game can be included (it does induce a hefty hit you're right as he barely touched the ball) but his cameo as a sub in the Freo '13 final would be taking it to absurd levels.

Finals
Chapman finals (2004-2013 inclusive - 10 year period): 18 games at 20.0 disposals, 1.8 goals and 0.6 goal assists (2.4 goal contributions) per game

Martin finals (2013-2022 inclusive - 10 year period): 16 games at 21.9 disposals, 1.7 goals and 1.1 goal assists (2.8 goal contributions) per game

Overall (H&A + finals)
2007-2011 Chapman: 24.3 disposals, 1.4 goals and 0.8 goal assists (2.2 goal contributions) per game
2017-2021 Martin: 25.2 disposals, 1.3 goals and 1.0 goal assists (2.3 goal contributions) per game

If Martin plays another final this year we can use it and Chapman's 2014.

Martin's main point of difference seems to be finals assists, but he did mostly have J.Riewoldt and T.Lynch in their prime. Chapman for tall timber had Mooney, baby Hawkins and Podsiadly. And you had assist machine SJ on the other flank dishing them out like a machine gun.

Ok … I don’t quite trust your stats, so here they are. For the sake of fairness I’ve completely removed Chapman’s injury affected game and I’ve left Martin’s in. I’ve also completely removed Chapman’s game when he was sub. And I’ve increased Martin’s 2020 numbers by 25%.

ALL FINALS played by Chapman for Geelong (minus injury game and sub game). ALL FINALS played by Martin including injury game. And I’ve added some stats as we know Martin played a lot more midfield than Chappy:

Disposals:
Martin 23.1
Chapman 20.1

Inside 50’s:
Martin 5.1
Chapman 4.4

Clearances:
Martin 3.9
Chapman 2.3

Contested possessions:
Martin 12.2
Chapman 6.8

Contested Marks:
Martin 0.75
Chapman 0.5

Goals:
Martin 1.7
Chapman 1.8

Goal Assists
Martin 1.2
Chapman 0.6

So from the stats it’s pretty obvious Martin had a greater time spent in midfield. And Chappy was clearly a much more uncontested player. But Martin still managed to have more impact on the scoreboard than Chapman (Geelong was also a team who played a game style involving loads more possessions and played in a higher scoring era but we won’t account for that)….

Here are their finals from 2007-2011 for Chappy and 2017-20 for Martin. Both at their peak and in their dynasty period:

Disposals:
Martin 23.8
Chapman 21.8

Inside 50’s:
Martin 5.5
Chapman 4.4

Clearances:
Martin 4.7
Chapman 2.2

CP:
Martin 13.6
Chapman 7.1

Contested marks:
Martin : 1.0
Chapman : 0.6

Goals:
Martin : 2.2
Chapman: 1.8

Goal Assist:
Martin 1.3
Chapman : 0.8


So across both sets of stats Martin easily out points Chappy in midfield related stats … CP’s, I50’s, disposals and clearances.

And despite all this, he still easily had more scoreboard impact.

And as mentioned, I kindly removed Chappy’s injured game and sub game.

So you said it’s unbelievably close …
if you massage numbers and leave out midfield related impact it is …. but when presented the entire picture it isn’t really all that close.

Having said that, Chappy was an excellent finals player, it’s just that Martin was next level.




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[Meteoric Rise]

Ok … I don’t quite trust your stats, so here they are. For the sake of fairness I’ve completely removed Chapman’s injury affected game and I’ve left Martin’s in. I’ve also completely removed Chapman’s game when he was sub. And I’ve increased Martin’s 2020 numbers by 25%.

ALL FINALS played by Chapman for Geelong (minus injury game and sub game). ALL FINALS played by Martin including injury game. And I’ve added some stats as we know Martin played a lot more midfield than Chappy:

Disposals:
Martin 23.1
Chapman 20.1

Inside 50’s:
Martin 5.1
Chapman 4.4

Clearances:
Martin 3.9
Chapman 2.3

Contested possessions:
Martin 12.2
Chapman 6.8

Contested Marks:
Martin 0.75
Chapman 0.5

Goals:
Martin 1.7
Chapman 1.8

Goal Assists
Martin 1.2
Chapman 0.6

So from the stats it’s pretty obvious Martin had a greater time spent in midfield. And Chappy was clearly a much more uncontested player. But Martin still managed to have more impact on the scoreboard than Chapman (Geelong was also a team who played a game style involving loads more possessions and played in a higher scoring era but we won’t account for that)….

Here are their finals from 2007-2011 for Chappy and 2017-20 for Martin. Both at their peak and in their dynasty period:

Disposals:
Martin 23.8
Chapman 21.8

Inside 50’s:
Martin 5.5
Chapman 4.4

Clearances:
Martin 4.7
Chapman 2.2

CP:
Martin 13.6
Chapman 7.1

Contested marks:
Martin : 1.0
Chapman : 0.6

Goals:
Martin : 2.2
Chapman: 1.8

Goal Assist:
Martin 1.3
Chapman : 0.8


So across both sets of stats Martin easily out points Chappy in midfield related stats … CP’s, I50’s, disposals and clearances.

And despite all this, he still easily had more scoreboard impact.

And as mentioned, I kindly removed Chappy’s injured game and sub game.

So you said it’s unbelievably close …
if you massage numbers and leave out midfield related impact it is …. but when presented the entire picture it isn’t really all that close.

Having said that, Chappy was an excellent finals player, it’s just that Martin was next level.




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Another excellent post. Following are Chapman's finals highlights.

In this video you can see around 80% of his finals goals were outside receives with no traffic. This is not to denigrate Chapman, most players would be similar and he nailed plenty of terrific shots. But this does not in any way match what Dusty did in his dominant finals run. Chapman is normally getting the ball with a clear path to goal. Dusty's goals normally entail winning the ball under immediate pressure and having to beat players just to get a shot off. Most of Chapman's goals rely on exactly what people are falsely saying about Martin's, the ball being won and play broken up against an outnumber upfield to allow the ball to be given to him. Martin's just rely on something that is much easier for any team to produce, just moving the ball into his area in any way you can.

 

[Mr Meow]

Ok … I don’t quite trust your stats, so here they are. For the sake of fairness I’ve completely removed Chapman’s injury affected game and I’ve left Martin’s in. I’ve also completely removed Chapman’s game when he was sub. And I’ve increased Martin’s 2020 numbers by 25%.

ALL FINALS played by Chapman for Geelong (minus injury game and sub game). ALL FINALS played by Martin including injury game. And I’ve added some stats as we know Martin played a lot more midfield than Chappy:

Disposals:
Martin 23.1
Chapman 20.1

Inside 50’s:
Martin 5.1
Chapman 4.4

Clearances:
Martin 3.9
Chapman 2.3

Contested possessions:
Martin 12.2
Chapman 6.8

Contested Marks:
Martin 0.75
Chapman 0.5

Goals:
Martin 1.7
Chapman 1.8

Goal Assists
Martin 1.2
Chapman 0.6

So from the stats it’s pretty obvious Martin had a greater time spent in midfield. And Chappy was clearly a much more uncontested player. But Martin still managed to have more impact on the scoreboard than Chapman (Geelong was also a team who played a game style involving loads more possessions and played in a higher scoring era but we won’t account for that)….

Here are their finals from 2007-2011 for Chappy and 2017-20 for Martin. Both at their peak and in their dynasty period:

Disposals:
Martin 23.8
Chapman 21.8

Inside 50’s:
Martin 5.5
Chapman 4.4

Clearances:
Martin 4.7
Chapman 2.2

CP:
Martin 13.6
Chapman 7.1

Contested marks:
Martin : 1.0
Chapman : 0.6

Goals:
Martin : 2.2
Chapman: 1.8

Goal Assist:
Martin 1.3
Chapman : 0.8


So across both sets of stats Martin easily out points Chappy in midfield related stats … CP’s, I50’s, disposals and clearances.

And despite all this, he still easily had more scoreboard impact.

And as mentioned, I kindly removed Chappy’s injured game and sub game.

So you said it’s unbelievably close …
if you massage numbers and leave out midfield related impact it is …. but when presented the entire picture it isn’t really all that close.

Having said that, Chappy was an excellent finals player, it’s just that Martin was next level.




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Nope, sorry. I did a 10 year period of 16 and 18 finals respectively each, only excluding Chapman's sub final from 2004-2013 inclusive. If Martin plays a final this year then Chapman's 2014 final at the same age can be used. Because it's very likely for Martin it will be another '22 EF rather than a '17 masterpiece.

Only Richmond supporters accept the 25% rule so your analysis is valid on the Richmond board. As is I'm assuming including Chapman's sub final.

Add whatever other stats you need to in diminishing the central ones you are feeling insecure about. It's smoke and mirrors. Cherry picking hilarious ones like contested marks "cause he spent more time in midfield ' doesn't make sense, and Chappy wasn't a contested mark specialist. We're talking about a roaming forward here who links up with primary stoppage midfielders.

You're now hilariously trying to cherry pick a smaller group of finals after complaining about for instance me including a 13th final (the 2022 one) for Martin in the original post, or excluding Chapman's 7 touch torn hammy final.

It's clear that you obviously are annoyed by the comparison, where the numbers interestingly her closer the more data points there are (finals or career totals).

The numbers indeed are remarkably similar, albeit Chapman sharing the role with SJ and the level of opponents a step up. Especially once it includes the triple flag Lions and 4 flag Hawks.

Can DM you my workings out for every single input if you are still struggling.

 

[Mr Meow]

Since you enjoyed the analysis I can provide a Steve Johnson one next at your request.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Nope, sorry. I did a 10 year period of 16 and 18 finals respectively each, only excluding Chapman's sub final from 2004-2013 inclusive. If Martin plays a final this year then Chapman's 2014 final at the same age can be used. Because it's very likely for Martin it will be another '22 EF rather than a '17 masterpiece.

Only Richmond supporters accept the 25% rule so your analysis is valid on the Richmond board. As is I'm assuming including Chapman's sub final.

Add whatever other stats you need to in diminishing the central ones you are feeling insecure about. It's smoke and mirrors. Cherry picking hilarious ones like contested marks "cause he spent more time in midfield ' doesn't make sense, and Chappy wasn't a contested mark specialist. We're talking about a roaming forward here who links up with primary stoppage midfielders.

You're now hilariously trying to cherry pick a smaller group of finals after complaining about for instance me including a 13th final (the 2022 one) for Martin in the original post, or excluding Chapman's 7 touch torn hammy final.

It's clear that you obviously are annoyed by the comparison, where the numbers interestingly her closer the more data points there are (finals or career totals).

The numbers indeed are remarkably similar, albeit Chapman sharing the role with SJ and the level of opponents a step up. Especially once it includes the triple flag Lions and 4 flag Hawks.

Can DM you my workings out for every single input if you are still struggling.

Do you actually even believe what you write?

My first lot of stats included EVERY SINGLE FINAL both of them played (for Cats). AND I removed Chapman’s injury affected game where he played 53% of game time, and left in Martin’s injury affected PF. AND I took out Chapman’s final where he was the sub.

You mention cherry picking stats … you had disposals, goals and goal assists … that’s it. Hardly fair on the bloke spending loads more time midfield. So I added contested possessions, inside 50’s and clearances … you know, those pesky midfield stats.

How do you think the stats for EVERY single final they’ve played compare, considering I’ve kindly removed a couple that would greatly bring down Chappy’s averages?



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