Analysis Inexperience watch

Remove this Banner Ad

Reader mode
Last of the Roys said:
Well for the only two times this year we have had an experience advantage we have played pretty atrociously. The less said about the Melbourne game the better - bloody torture!

Coming off that it is hard to get too excited about playing the most experienced team in the competition, even if it is at home.

Round 17 - Lions vs. Roos at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Roos 1)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 5 vs. Roos 3
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Roos 1
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. Roos 5
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 8 vs. Roos 9
  • 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Roos 4
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 76.3 vs. Roos 136.1 (= -59.8)
  • (Back in round 2 average games player - Lions 65.1 vs. Roos 129.4 [= -64.2])
  • Average age - Lions 23 vs. Roos 25.7 (rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 188.4cm vs. Roos 187.7cm
  • Average weight - Lions 87.1kg vs. Roos 87kg
So we have 9 players with less than 50 games experience to their 4. At the other end they have 4 players with more than 200 games experience to our zero (soon to be one with Adcock playing 200).

Still it is the second most experienced side we have put on the park all year, and we have slightly reduced the average games played gap compared to the round 2 game (although it is still the fourth worst gap we have faced for the year).

We are not without a chance at home if we turn up with the right attitude and can get some semblance of structure / gameplan to click, but you would hardly be counting on that to occur after last week.
Click to expand...

Updates in red with the late changes.
 
CK6eEM9UEAAnn8G.png:large


That's not even including Beams & Hanley. :eek:
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Better late than never:

Round 18 - Lions vs. Cats at Simonds Stadium
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Cats 2)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 5 vs. Cats 5
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Cats 2
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. Cats 5
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 8 vs. Cats 5
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Cats 5
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 78.8 vs. Cats 117.4 (= -38.6)
  • Average age - Lions 23 vs. Cats 24.6 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 188.4cm vs. Cats 189.5cm
  • Average weight - Lions 87.4kg vs. Cats 88.9kg
The sides actually don't look that difference experience wise except for all of the Geelong veterans in the 200+ category.

If we were playing well and at home that would usually mean that we would be in with a reasonable chance. However, this year with our form and lack of structure it doesn't seem to mean much at all.
 
Round 19 - Lions vs. Suns at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 4 vs. Suns 0)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Suns 5
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Suns 4
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. Suns 10
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 8 vs. Suns 3
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Suns 0
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 73.6 vs. Suns 65.9 (= +7.7)
  • Average age - Lions 22.2 vs. Suns 22.2 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 187.7cm vs. Suns 187.2cm
  • Average weight - Lions 86.5kg vs. Suns 84.9kg
This year we have been humiliated in both games we have gone into with a more experienced side in terms of average games played (vs. Gold Coast and Melbourne). So having that advantage once again will be interesting. However the problem this time around is that we have 4 players in our side that have played 10 games or less, whereas the Gold Coast have none. On the other hand, we obviously have more very experienced players that have played more than 100 games.

That experience doesn't seem to mean much when you have no structure to kick goals and no great form / continuity. However, it wouldn't surprise me at all if we won this game. It would also hardly be a shock if we were well beaten given our 10 losses in a row (although it would be pretty bloody disappointing).

By the way, McStay is playing his 25th game this week, so he will move up a category next week. Mayes his playing his 49th game, so he will move up in a couple of weeks time.
 
Here we go, the match-up the world has been waiting for:

Round 20 - Lions vs. Blues at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 4 vs. Blues 4)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Blues 8
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Blues 3
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 4 vs. Blues 3
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 7 vs. Blues 6
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Blues 2
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 72.2 vs. Blues 80.5 (= -8.3)
  • Average age - Lions 22.2 vs. Blues 23.9 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 188.1cm vs. Blues 187.6cm
  • Average weight - Lions 87kg vs. Blues 86.8kg
I think experience wise overall it is roughly even. The Blues obviously average slightly more games played, but that is down to having 4 players over 170 games to our 2. But they also have 2 more inexperienced players in the 0-24 game category.

Any way you look at it, it seems pretty even - now all we have to do is wait for the battle of the century!
 
Last of the Roys said:
Here we go, the match-up the world has been waiting for:

Round 20 - Lions vs. Blues at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 4 vs. Blues 4)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Blues 8
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Blues 3
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 4 vs. Blues 3
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 7 vs. Blues 6
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Blues 2
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 72.2 vs. Blues 80.5 (= -8.3)
  • Average age - Lions 22.2 vs. Blues 23.9 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 188.1cm vs. Blues 187.6cm
  • Average weight - Lions 87kg vs. Blues 86.8kg
I think experience wise overall it is roughly even. The Blues obviously average slightly more games played, but that is down to having 4 players over 170 games to our 2. But they also have 2 more inexperienced players in the 0-24 game category.

Any way you look at it, it seems pretty even - now all we have to do is wait for the battle of the century!
Click to expand...


Great job as always.

They will talk about this game far into the future - and make documentaries about it - When We Were Kings.
 
Getting later and later with my posts as the season drags on:

Round 20 - Lions vs. Crows at Adelaide Oval
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Crows 2)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Crows 6
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Crows 1
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Crows 7
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Crows 6
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Crows 2
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 70.8 vs. Crows 90.0 (= -19.2)
  • Average age - Lions 22.1 vs. Crows 23.7 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 187.8cm vs. Crows 186.5cm
  • Average weight - Lions 86.9kg vs. Crows 85.7kg
So the Crows have a clear experience advantage of almost 20 games per player. Although the only clear difference is that they have 1 more 200+ game player and 1 more player in the 50-99 range, whereas we have 2 more players than them in the 25-49 game bracket. So the make-up of the teams looks fairly similar on paper - you could say we are a season or so behind them.

Hard to know how we will play today - we have been pretty good the last couple of weeks at home, but can we maintain that away in a hostile venue? Also hard to know how the Crows will play - they seem up and down at the moment.
 
It is a real horror movie this week:

Round 22 - Lions vs. Hawks in Launceston
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 4 vs. Hawks 1)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Hawks 2
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Hawks 1
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Hawks 4
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Hawks 8
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Hawks 7
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 70.7 vs. Hawks 142.7!!! (= -72.2, so more than double!!!)
  • Average age - Lions 21.6 vs. Hawks 25.7 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 187.7cm vs. Hawks 187.5cm
  • Average weight - Lions 86.9kg vs. Hawks 87.6kg
So we go into the game with the biggest experience deficit of the year - up against the back-to-back premiers who are more than twice as experienced than we are in terms of games played and clearly the most experienced team we have played all year.

We have 9 players with less than 50 games experience to their 3. At the experienced end they have a staggering 15 of their 22 players with more than 100 games experience, including 7 with over 200 games experience - we have just 7 players with more than 100 games experience.

This one may get really ugly.
 
Late change for the Hawks - Mitchell out (280 games), Howe in (2 games) - changes in red below:

Last of the Roys said:
It is a real horror movie this week:

Round 22 - Lions vs. Hawks in Launceston
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 4 vs. Hawks 2)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Hawks 3
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Hawks 1
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Hawks 4
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Hawks 8
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Hawks 6
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 70.7 vs. Hawks 130.1!!! (= -59.4)
  • Average age - Lions 21.6 vs. Hawks 25.1 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 187.7cm vs. Hawks 188cm
  • Average weight - Lions 86.9kg vs. Hawks 87.6kg
So we go into the game with one of the biggest experience deficit of the year - up against the back-to-back premiers who are almost more than twice as experienced than we are in terms of games played and clearly the most experienced team we have played all year.

We have 9 players with less than 50 games experience to their 4. At the experienced end they have a staggering 14 of their 22 players with more than 100 games experience, including 6 with over 200 games experience - we have just 7 players with more than 100 games experience.

This one may get really ugly.
Click to expand...
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Last round of the year for us, and the Bulldogs show how much respect they have for us by taking a massive gamble in resting their 3 most experienced players:

Round 23 - Lions vs. Bulldogs at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Dogs 4)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 5 vs. Dogs 9
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Dogs 4
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Dogs 8
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Dogs 1
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Dogs 0
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 76.9 vs. Dogs 47.0!!! (= +29.9, almost unbelievable, I hope I didn't make a huge mistake)
  • Average age - Lions 22.0 vs. Dogs 22.4 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 187.5cm vs. Hawks 186.9cm
  • Average weight - Lions 87.1kg vs. Dogs 84.4kg

The Bulldogs need to win this game in order to ensure a Melbourne final in week 1. If they lose and Adelaide beat the Cats, then the Dogs will have to travel to Adelaide in the first week of the finals.

Given that, I think they have taken a huge risk by resting their three most experienced players. It has had a massive impact on their experience profile. We now go into the game with a very large experience advantage (the type we have generally been on the opposite end of most of the year). True we haven't won the two games against Gold Coast where we had an experienced advantage this year - but this is on another level altogether.

The dogs will have 13 players with less than 50 games experience to our 8. At the other end, we will have 7 players with more than 100 games experience to their 1.

Yep there are still a heap of reasons why the Bulldogs should win:
- they have a home final to play for
- they have been awesome all year
- they have a great game plan that will run us off our feet
- their young players are playing brilliantly
- we as a Club are in a huge crisis, with a whole list of players rumoured to wanting to leave
- we haven't really played any consistent footy all year
- our game style (if it is what we are intending) is often slow and renders us even less competitive

But **** it, I think we can win and I am going to tip us. It is backs against the wall time, we are farewelling Adcock and Staker, and we have a massive experience advantage for a home game being played in the middle of the day.

If the playing group has managed to use the crisis to galvanise itself for this game then the Dogs are in for a shock. (Of course it could also all turn to crap and we will then never speak of this post again).

Right at this point in time I don't even care if we lose the first draft pick. We just need some ****ing hope - for the players, the coaches, the admin, and most of all for the supporters. Pick one or two is really a flip of a coin anyway.
 
Makes our "inexperience" excuse look a bit hollow. What a great season the dogs have had, all credit to them.
 
WhiteLionFeva said:
Makes our "inexperience" excuse look a bit hollow. What a great season the dogs have had, all credit to them.
Click to expand...

They've been amazing. They've completely redefined what the expectations should be for a young team.

I really do think we're a chance today, but...

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=6147

Last week the Dogs had played 65 games fewer per player on average than the Kangaroos, were almost three years younger on average, had ten players with <50 games experience to their opponent's two, and just four players with 100+ games compared to sixteen (sixteen!). They won by four goals, and that margin probably doesn't do them justice.

They repeatedly defy well-founded principles about the advantages of experience. On the flip side, they have dropped the occasional game they should win, and their interstate record has been mixed.
 
Last of the Roys said:
Last round of the year for us, and the Bulldogs show how much respect they have for us by taking a massive gamble in resting their 3 most experienced players:

Round 23 - Lions vs. Bulldogs at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Dogs 4)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 5 vs. Dogs 9
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Dogs 4
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Dogs 8
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Dogs 1
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Dogs 0
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 76.9 vs. Dogs 47.0!!! (= +29.9, almost unbelievable, I hope I didn't make a huge mistake)
  • Average age - Lions 22.0 vs. Dogs 22.4 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 187.5cm vs. Hawks 186.9cm
  • Average weight - Lions 87.1kg vs. Dogs 84.4kg

The Bulldogs need to win this game in order to ensure a Melbourne final in week 1. If they lose and Adelaide beat the Cats, then the Dogs will have to travel to Adelaide in the first week of the finals.

Given that, I think they have taken a huge risk by resting their three most experienced players. It has had a massive impact on their experience profile. We now go into the game with a very large experience advantage (the type we have generally been on the opposite end of most of the year). True we haven't won the two games against Gold Coast where we had an experienced advantage this year - but this is on another level altogether.

The dogs will have 13 players with less than 50 games experience to our 8. At the other end, we will have 7 players with more than 100 games experience to their 1.

Yep there are still a heap of reasons why the Bulldogs should win:
- they have a home final to play for
- they have been awesome all year
- they have a great game plan that will run us off our feet
- their young players are playing brilliantly
- we as a Club are in a huge crisis, with a whole list of players rumoured to wanting to leave
- we haven't really played any consistent footy all year
- our game style (if it is what we are intending) is often slow and renders us even less competitive

But **** it, I think we can win and I am going to tip us. It is backs against the wall time, we are farewelling Adcock and Staker, and we have a massive experience advantage for a home game being played in the middle of the day.

If the playing group has managed to use the crisis to galvanise itself for this game then the Dogs are in for a shock. (Of course it could also all turn to crap and we will then never speak of this post again).

Right at this point in time I don't even care if we lose the first draft pick. We just need some ******* hope - for the players, the coaches, the admin, and most of all for the supporters. Pick one or two is really a flip of a coin anyway.
Click to expand...
I have seen the doggies win at the G and three times at Etihad this year and am a fan...however, I think they may be in strife today. They got away with their ruck tactic last week,but Teams will be onto it now. Most important , Murphy, and Boyd are crucial in setting up and leadership and will be missed bigtime. Previously only one of the two has been rested at the same time. I would say this is line ball.
 
Len S said:
I have seen the doggies win at the G and three times at Etihad this year and am a fan...however, I think they may be in strife today. They got away with their ruck tactic last week,but Teams will be onto it now. Most important , Murphy, and Boyd are crucial in setting up and leadership and will be missed bigtime. Previously only one of the two has been rested at the same time. I would say this is line ball.
Click to expand...

Murphy is almost like their bail out guy. When they get into trouble they kick it to murph and he sorts it out.
 
For the sake of accuracy - the late change with Staker out (160 games), O'Brien in (12 games) - changes in red below:

Last of the Roys said:
Last round of the year for us, and the Bulldogs show how much respect they have for us by taking a massive gamble in resting their 3 most experienced players:

Round 23 - Lions vs. Bulldogs at the Gabba
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Dogs 4)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Dogs 9
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Dogs 4
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Dogs 8
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Dogs 1
  • 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Dogs 0
Some extra stats from the lists I set up at the start of the year:
  • Average games played - Lions 70.2 vs. Dogs 47.0!!! (= +23.2, almost unbelievable, I hope I didn't make a huge mistake)
  • Average age - Lions 21.7 vs. Dogs 22.4 (very rough estimates not updated since Jan)
  • Average height - Lions 186.9cm vs. Hawks 186.9cm
  • Average weight - Lions 85.4kg vs. Dogs 84.4kg

The Bulldogs need to win this game in order to ensure a Melbourne final in week 1. If they lose and Adelaide beat the Cats, then the Dogs will have to travel to Adelaide in the first week of the finals.

Given that, I think they have taken a huge risk by resting their three most experienced players. It has had a massive impact on their experience profile. We now go into the game with a very large experience advantage (the type we have generally been on the opposite end of most of the year). True we haven't won the two games against Gold Coast where we had an experienced advantage this year - but this is on another level altogether.

The dogs will have 13 players with less than 50 games experience to our 9. At the other end, we will have 6 players with more than 100 games experience to their 1.

Yep there are still a heap of reasons why the Bulldogs should win:
- they have a home final to play for
- they have been awesome all year
- they have a great game plan that will run us off our feet
- their young players are playing brilliantly
- we as a Club are in a huge crisis, with a whole list of players rumoured to wanting to leave
- we haven't really played any consistent footy all year
- our game style (if it is what we are intending) is often slow and renders us even less competitive

But **** it, I think we can win and I am going to tip us. It is backs against the wall time, we are farewelling Adcock and Staker, and we have a massive experience advantage for a home game being played in the middle of the day.

If the playing group has managed to use the crisis to galvanise itself for this game then the Dogs are in for a shock. (Of course it could also all turn to crap and we will then never speak of this post again).

Right at this point in time I don't even care if we lose the first draft pick. We just need some ******* hope - for the players, the coaches, the admin, and most of all for the supporters. Pick one or two is really a flip of a coin anyway.
Click to expand...
 
Last of the Roys said:
But **** it, I think we can win and I am going to tip us. It is backs against the wall time, we are farewelling Adcock and Staker, and we have a massive experience advantage for a home game being played in the middle of the day.

If the playing group has managed to use the crisis to galvanise itself for this game then the Dogs are in for a shock. (Of course it could also all turn to crap and we will then never speak of this post again).

Right at this point in time I don't even care if we lose the first draft pick. We just need some ******* hope - for the players, the coaches, the admin, and most of all for the supporters. Pick one or two is really a flip of a coin anyway.
Click to expand...

Give this man a cigar!!

Brilliant synopsis and forecast:thumbsu:
 
Reader mode

Remove this Banner Ad

Analysis Inexperience watch

Similar threads

DERRINALPHIL
Watch This Space
Replies
2
Views
328
Nunez
Nunez
MSB ROYS
  • Poll
2024 GF - how many times have you watched?
2 3 4
Replies
78
Views
3K
Nunez
Nunez
S
  • Locked
Unofficial Preview Prelim discussion v Demons/Blues / Gunston watch.
15 16 17 18 19
Replies
466
Views
20K
dlanod
dlanod

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top