Analysis Inexperience watch

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Matt_BL said:
That score is not ideal for us today :/
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We had 170 games played average, scored 170 points, and in general there is a big correlation between games played and points scored. Realistically looking at our experience we should get hammered today. If we manage to be at all competitive then that's a pretty good sign that in a few years time we should be a force in the comp
 
Annoyingly Brad Scott has made a couple of late changes that probably were always on the cards (Hansen for Thompson and Jacobs for Turner). Anyway, changes in blue below (unbelievably it makes North slightly more experienced than before):

Last of the Roys said:
Round 2, 2016 - Lions vs. North at the Gabba
(or the Young Guns vs. Dad's Army)
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 1 vs. North 0)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 3 vs. North 1
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. North 2
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 9 vs. North 4
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. North 9
  • 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. North 6
Extra stats:
  • Average games played - Lions 68.4 vs. North 152 (= -83.6)!!!
  • Average age - Lions 24.2 vs. North 27.8
  • Average height - Lions 186.5cm vs. North 188.4cm
  • Average weight - Lions 88.3kg vs. North 88.5kg
Wow! I think North this week might be the most experienced / oldest team I have looked at on this thread (I am just guessing though, because I can't be bothered checking). An average of over 150 games each, WTF??? I had to check that a few times to be sure. Of course they have Harvey on over 400 games, but also Dal Santo on just over 300, Petrie on close to 300 and three more (Wells, Waite and Firrito) over 200 games each.

The difference in average games played to us is enormous (one of the biggest I have seen, if not the biggest). Although in a way some of the other stats are not too different to last week. We have 8 players who have played less than 50 games to their 3. We only have 5 players with more than 100 games experience to North's 15.

So it is going to be bloody tough to win, but at home and against a team that is very old, we are not without a chance. In fact North's side definitely looks too old. They have surely gone past the ideal experience range. That doesn't make it much easier for us given we are clearly much less experienced than we need to be to be consistently competitive.

Still, there is hope. Time to see if we can turn this experience caper on its head!
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I hope more people on this board see this thread, it's a great indication of where we are at and what to expect.

Especially when you are going up against aging lists like North and peaking lists like the Eagles.
 
BeamStar17 said:
I hope more people on this board see this thread, it's a great indication of where we are at and what to expect.

Especially when you are going up against aging lists like North and peaking lists like the Eagles.
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Yep, I love this thread. Thanks for all the good work Last of the Roys
 
BeamStar17 said:
I hope more people on this board see this thread, it's a great indication of where we are at and what to expect.

Especially when you are going up against aging lists like North and peaking lists like the Eagles.
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All very true, although it becomes quite disheartening to think that our inexperience has not improved at all in recent years, and in fact, continues to regress.
 
Dylan12 said:
All very true, although it becomes quite disheartening to think that our inexperience has not improved at all in recent years, and in fact, continues to regress.
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Because players like Black, Brown, Moloney, McGrath, Staker, Maguire, McGuane, Adcock have moved on. The only one left that won't be there in 2019 is Merrett. We've bottomed out, and we can't help but get more experienced from now on.
 
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Dylan12 said:
All very true, although it becomes quite disheartening to think that our inexperience has not improved at all in recent years, and in fact, continues to regress.
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I haven't got the numbers but the cleanout under Leppa is very extensive.

Simply put, we didn't have the cattle that was going to take us to a premiership - getting games into the likes of O'Brien, Polkinghorne, Golby, McKeever etc was futile and whilst it's set us back age/game experience, it's better for the long run.
 
cautionary note- with the bulldogs, giants and suns being only slightly more advanced than us in terms of age and experience profiles, the big question is.

have we got the list "potential" to compete with these 3 teams and others currently unkonwn for flags in the next 2/6 years?

IMO probably not, but that can change rapidly with player development, drafting and trades.
 
Keays2myBeamas said:
Because players like Black, Brown, Moloney, McGrath, Staker, Maguire, McGuane, Adcock have moved on. The only one left that won't be there in 2019 is Merrett. We've bottomed out, and we can't help but get more experienced from now on.
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Certainly appreciative of the above and to be honest that was always going to be a given, it is more the fact that we have bottomed out for many years with barely an inch in improvement and in all likelihood, will remain to be rooted in the bottom four. And as is being discussed in the reserves threads, whatever we have waiting in the wings is even less likely to push the club further up the ladder any time soon.
 
Dylan12 said:
Certainly appreciative of the above and to be honest that was always going to be a given, it is more the fact that we have bottomed out for many years with barely an inch in improvement and in all likelihood, will remain to be rooted in the bottom four. And as is being discussed in the reserves threads, whatever we have waiting in the wings is even less likely to push the club further up the ladder any time soon.
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Perfect storm of bad recruiting, bad welfare and a few compromised drafts.

Some issues explainable by lack of funds too, I'd say.

I hope we're on the up now - it certainly feels as though it's real this time.
 
By the way, I have done the initial calculations on the experience and age of all clubs lists across the AFL. I will post about it in more detail when I get time. But as expected we definitely have the least experienced and youngest list in the AFL, regardless of how you cut it.

Our senior list had an average games played after round 1 of just over 49 games per player. I think the next lowest is Melbourne with around 56 games per player (I think GWS, the Bulldogs and Gold Coast are not that much above that mark as well). We are also the youngest senior list with an average age of just over 23.

The oldest senior list is Freo (close to 26 average I think), while the most experienced is North's with an average of 94 or so (I don't have the averages with me so I am just going on what I can remember when I looked at them on the weekend).
 
(assuming no late changes)

Round 3, 2016 - Lions vs. Cats at Simonds Stadium
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 1 vs. Cats 2)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 3 vs. Cats 6
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Cats 0
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 9 vs. Cats 6
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Cats 6
  • 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Cats 4
Extra stats:
  • Average games played - Lions 69.5 vs. Cats 113.1 (= -43.6 games on average)
  • Average age - Lions 24.3 vs. Cats 26.2
  • Average height - Lions 186.5cm vs. Cats 190.7!!! (=-4.2cm on average)
  • Average weight - Lions 88.3kg vs. Cats 90.3kg
It still doesn't get much easier on the experience front this week with the third deficit in a row of more than 40 games experience per player. At least Geelong have quite a few young players in the 0-24 game range = 6 to our 3, which might normally give us some hope. But we still have 8 players to their 6 with less than 50 games experience, and more importantly only 5 players with more than 100 games experience to their 10 (including 4 with more than 200 games each).

What is a little bizarre is that we going in to another match relatively short in height at 186.5cm average, while Geelong look too tall on paper averaging a massive 190.7cm. That is a huge difference (assuming the height stats are somewhat accurate, at least when averaged out).

Regardless, it is hard to see us being competitive down in Geelong given most of our recent history against them (excluding 2013). Still, we need to keep showing fighting efforts and eventually we will meet a side that is not that far away in terms of experience and give them a real crack (in fact I am hoping that will be in round 4).
 
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Updated stats with the late changes in red (Rich out and Evans in for the Lions; Lonergan out and Cockatoo in for the Cats).

Last of the Roys said:
Round 3, 2016 - Lions vs. Cats at Simonds Stadium
  • (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Cats 2)
  • 0 to 24 games - Lions 4 vs. Cats 7
  • 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Cats 0
  • 50 to 99 games - Lions 9 vs. Cats 6
  • 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. Cats 5
  • 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Cats 4
Extra stats:
  • Average games played - Lions 64.1 vs. Cats 106.0 (= -41.9 games on average)
  • Average age - Lions 24.0 vs. Cats 25.6
  • Average height - Lions 186.7cm vs. Cats 190.2!!! (=-3.5cm on average)
  • Average weight - Lions 88.4kg vs. Cats 89.7kg
It still doesn't get much easier on the experience front this week with the third deficit in a row of more than 40 games experience per player. At least Geelong have quite a few young players in the 0-24 game range =7 to our 4, which might normally give us some hope. But we still have 9 players to their 7 with less than 50 games experience, and more importantly only 4 players with more than 100 games experience to their 9 (including 4 with more than 200 games each).

What is a little bizarre is that we going in to another match relatively short in height at 186.7cm average, while Geelong look too tall on paper averaging a massive 190.2cm. That is a huge difference (assuming the height stats are somewhat accurate, at least when averaged out).

Regardless, it is hard to see us being competitive down in Geelong given most of our recent history against them (excluding 2013). Still, we need to keep showing fighting efforts and eventually we will meet a side that is not that far away in terms of experience and give them a real crack (in fact I am hoping that will be in round 4).
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What I find particularly scary out of the Geelong game is that we really don't have many experienced players that weren't in the side on Sunday. Although, you can make the case that our best three players weren't playing, which would hurt any side:
  • Dayne Beams on 126 games experience
  • Rich on 124
  • Rocky on 119
But beyond that, the next most experienced players on our list not in the side were:
  • West, 66 games - and will only play if Martin gets injured due to team balance
  • Clarke on 56 games - who has retired obviously
  • and Paparone on 46 games (who would help, but is hardly considered experienced)
So if we included Dayne Beams, Rich, Rocky and Paparone in our side for arguments sake at the expense of our four least experienced players on Sunday (Schache 3 games, Evans 6 games, Cutler 21 games and Andrews 22 games) we would only get to a maximum average per player in our team of 80.5 games.

Obviously those changes are not going to happen. A more realistic best case scenario would be Evans 6 games, Gardiner 27 games, and a couple of others from Harwood 62 games, Mayes 56 games, Lester 64 games or Claye Beams 39 games making way. Lets assume it is Mayes and Lester in addition to Evans and Gardiner, then that would give a top 22 average of just 73.9 games per player.

So a best case scenario at some stage of probably getting to around 74 games per player shows how bleak our experience outlook is. Especially when you compare us to the averages of our opponents in the first three rounds (WC 105.4, North 152, and Cats 106).

Round 4 should be temporarily better, but it is going to be a long year by the looks of things.
 
Yep its a year for the draft enthusiasts out there thats for sure. Hopefully from next season onwards we'll be well over the 80 average, hopefully closer to 90, although Merrett retiring or reducing the number of games he plays may have an impact.
 
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Analysis Inexperience watch

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