Opinion Is father-son access going to heavily dictate the next decade of premiers?

[Red Black and Blue]

The trouble is, what you think is fair, someone else will say it's not fair.

Take academies for instance, you may think it's not fair some have them and others don't, but then you have others that think they equalise in other ways, you just need to look on threads about them to see both sides of the arguments.

Like distributions of funds, some people are ok with it, but some think if clubs can't fund themselves should be culled.

Some people like the idea of F/S's, whether they are fair or not, there is an argument that they are just random and all clubs can get them.

We could go on all day about things that are not fair.

Yes, the whole point of the argument is to create enough pressure that the AFL starts seeing the world like me. I couldn't care what others "view" as fair. I'm yet to see many others who are soon to benefit from academies like my team, advocate against them, so I'll take their self serving perspective with a grain of salt.

The randomness of F/S is irrelevant. For the duration of their careers at their respective club that team has an undeserved advantage over the rest. A team could go decades without a significant one and they are up against it for no other reason than an ex player didn't root the right genetic match. That is peoples whole careers gone to waste over a rule the rest of the world has rightly observed as stupidity. It's perverse.

I'd also advocate for interstate teams to play at the G more, to rotate the grand final and for Victorian teams to travel more, but still none of those are as detrimental to teams being able to rebuild as limiting elite talent acquisition.

Anyone who advocates for culling clubs is a psychopath and should be shunned from polite society.

 

[GC2015]

Not quite. Rance was an end of first round priority pick (pick 18) for a long-term underperforming team. An equalisation measure.

Both Ashcrofts are F-S gifts to finals/premiership Brisbane who would otherwise have been snapped up in the top 5 by underperforming teams as an equalisation measure.

See the difference?

Don't forget, Alex Rance was F/S eligible for West Coast up until a few years before his draft year when the AFL changed the criteria from 50 to 100 AFL games. Rance still experienced all the junior benefits that come with growing up as the son of an AFL legend in Perth and Richmond reaped the rewards through the open draft. It'd be like the AFL changing the F/S rules a few years ago and Richmond being in line to draft Levi Ashcroft with pick 1 this year, despite his obvious connections to Brisbane.

 

[BF Tiger]

Don't forget, Alex Rance was F/S eligible for West Coast up until a few years before his draft year when the AFL changed the criteria from 50 to 100 AFL games. Rance still experienced all the junior benefits that come with growing up as the son of an AFL legend in Perth and Richmond reaped the rewards through the open draft. It'd be like the AFL changing the F/S rules a few years ago and Richmond being in line to draft Levi Ashcroft with pick 1 this year, despite his obvious connections to Brisbane.

Murray Rance, AFL legend? He played 40 games for Footscray and 57 games for West Coast. In short, he didn't play enough games for Alex Rance to qualify as a F-S, with that number being quite arbitrary really. Likewise, 140 WAFL games for Swan Districts meant Alex was not a F-S option for Fremantle.

There have been scores of players who have not qualified for F-S because their dad didn't play enough, while others have been picked up because their dad just fell over the line (e.g. Jonathon Brown, who qualified for Brisbane because his dad managed 51 games in six seasons at Fitzroy).

 

[The Punter]

Well this is just blatantly false.

What's do you have currently that's being taken away from you to get Levi Ashcroft? Adding Levi will only be additive, there will be no subtraction in order to acquire him, so there is no cost. If you want Ashcroft, IMO Brisbane should have to give up something of value to get him, and they should be giving that something to Richmond who are being robbed of the first pick their ladder position qualifies them for.

 

[Tom14]

A short list of F/S or other draft/FA/List management rorts affecting recent flags:

2024 Lions - Ashcroft, Fletcher, Hipwood (1st round academy). Andrews and Payne were later Academy picks (though Harris was a second round bid under the old 2014 system)

2023 Pies - Darcy Moore

30

Darcy Moore

Age

28

Ht

203cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

169.1

3star

D

13.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

0.7

1star

MG

182.0

3star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

87.4

2star

, Daicos x2, Quaynor, Pendles (the priority pick in 2010 was Dale Thomas - but the 'extra' pick was pendles)

2022 Cats - Hawkins F/S under old F/S rules

2021 Dees - Tanking scandal, priority picks, AFL fudging of the FA compo formula to let them get Brayshaw from Frawley leaving, Viney F/S

2019-2020 Tiges - could argue getting Lynch as FA when you were the minor premier isn't exactly doing it the hard way, but legitimate enough under the rules, so maybe no asterisk? 2020 flag a mickey mouse one under COVID conditions.

2018 West Coast - Shuey a priority end of round 1 selection in 2008

2017 Tiges - Rance a priority end of round 1 selection in 07

2016 Dogs - F/Ss everywhere.

2013-15 Hawks - how many priority picks can one team benefit from?

2012 Swans - COLA

2011 Cats - lots of F/S with Scarlett, Hawk, etc

2010 Pies - Pendles - Dale Thomas was the priority pick, but Pendles was the 'extra' pick (as they would have had pick 2 in a system with no priority picks). Also special shout out to the Saints with Riewoldt as a priority pick after the AFL changed the Brisbane zone the year before to just exclude the gold coast.

2009 Cats - as above

2008 Hawks - as above

2007 Cats - as above

2006 Eagles - Judd was the priority pick, but Sampi the extra pick.

2005 Swans - COLA

2004 Port - concessions for establishment in the comp.

01-03 Lions - retention allowance, getting Voss, Acker and others as QLD zone selections, Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson

Age

48

Ht

180cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.7

4star

K

8.6

3star

HB

5.1

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

9.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

from the fitzroy merger.

 

[iBeng]

What's do you have currently that's being taken away from you to get Levi Ashcroft? Adding Levi will only be additive, there will be no subtraction in order to acquire him, so there is no cost. If you want Ashcroft, IMO Brisbane should have to give up something of value to get him, and they should be giving that something to Richmond who are being robbed of the first pick their ladder position qualifies them for.

This and our next draft are essentially nuked in terms of being able to trade or draft anyone outside of two players.

Is that not a price to pay at all? Or should we be punished because one of our previous players chose to have sons 2 years apart?

 

[The Punter]

This and our next draft are essentially nuked in terms of being able to trade or draft anyone outside of two players.

Is that not a price to pay at all? Or should we be punished because one of our previous players chose to have sons 2 years apart?

Brisbane are not being punished in any way, shape or form. You are drafting an academy kid as well this year, so let's not go crazy on your draft hand being "nuked". You'll get two players before pick 18 in all likelihood - players your ladder position does not entitle you to draft.

What would it take Richmond to trade the #1 pick? That's the fair price for Ashcroft. If Levi was playing at Richmond next season, your enjoyment of your team would remain exactly the same.

And we wonder why teams cannot climb off the bottom of the ladder...

 

[iBeng]

Brisbane are not being punished in any way, shape or form. You are drafting an academy kid as well this year, so let's not go crazy on your draft hand being "nuked". You'll get two players before pick 18 in all likelihood - players your ladder position does not entitle you to draft.

What would it take Richmond to trade the #1 pick? That's the fair price for Ashcroft. If Levi was playing at Richmond next season, your enjoyment of your team would remain exactly the same.

And we wonder why teams cannot climb off the bottom of the ladder...

And what would your attitude be if Richmond did take Ashcroft at 1, we were blocked from bidding entirely, and in 2 years he refuses to sign a contract and asks to be traded to Brisbane to play with his brother and his fathers club? Would Richmond then demand pick 1 in return?

 

[The Punter]

And what would your attitude be if Richmond did take Ashcroft at 1, we were blocked from bidding entirely, and in 2 years he refuses to sign a contract and asks to be traded to Brisbane to play with his brother and his fathers club? Would Richmond then demand pick 1 in return?

My attitude would be "this is how the system should work". North Melbourne were compensated for Jason Horne-Francis. What a fair trade would look like to Richmond in this hypothetical would be up to them.

 

[Mofra]

Murray Rance, AFL legend? He played 40 games for Footscray and 57 games for West Coast. In short, he didn't play enough games for Alex Rance to qualify as a F-S, with that number being quite arbitrary really. Likewise, 140 WAFL games for Swan Districts meant Alex was not a F-S option for Fremantle.

There have been scores of players who have not qualified for F-S because their dad didn't play enough, while others have been picked up because their dad just fell over the line (e.g. Jonathon Brown, who qualified for Brisbane because his dad managed 51 games in six seasons at Fitzroy).

The "old" rules were 50 games though.
The Bulldogs thought they were getting Sam and Ben Reid until the 100 game rule came into effect.

 

[PhatBoy]

You get good players for performing badly.

That’s the core principal of the draft.

Yes I get the whole idea that it’s supposed to provide a level playing field, that obviously isn’t lost on me, but that in itself is ensuring some inequality in recruiting players from the beginning.

I don’t think any sides deliberately go out to be shit anymore a la Melbourne but as long as you have any system that rewards teams who don’t prioritise winning it will never be properly fair anyway. All other aspects of it are just additional inequalities heaped on top of it

 

[Obeanie1]

You get good players for performing badly.

That’s the core principal of the draft.

Yes I get the whole idea that it’s supposed to provide a level playing field, that obviously isn’t lost on me, but that in itself is ensuring some inequality in recruiting players from the beginning.

I don’t think any sides deliberately go out to be shit anymore a la Melbourne but as long as you have any system that rewards teams who don’t prioritise winning it will never be properly fair anyway. All other aspects of it are just additional inequalities heaped on top of it

You get better picks if you arent as good as other teams.

Um. How else can you run a draft to support equalisation if the team finishing last doesnt get the 1st pick?

Yes there are lotteries but the last team has significantly more chance ro land the 1st pick.

 

[PhatBoy]

You get better picks if you arent as good as other teams.

Um. How else can you run a draft to support equalisation if the team finishing last doesnt get the 1st pick?

Yes there are lotteries but the last team has significantly more chance ro land the 1st pick.

That’s my point. I don’t know that I even support the draft in principal full stop.

The immediate comparison when this topic gets brought up ALWAYS gets brought back to the EPL where the same teams have dominated for 100 years either in the EPL or division 1 before it.

But it’s not the same thing, really.

The better comparison is the NRL.

And right at this exactly moment it’s probably not a great one because only 3 teams regardless of Sunday’s grand final outcome will have won the last 7 premierships.

But every team in the competition has made a grand final in the last 20 years aside from the Knight, Titans and the Dolphins - the latter of which only just joined the competition and the Titans who have only joined in that time, and who have made a prelim in that time. The Knights have been pretty regular finalists.

The Cowboys, Broncos, Tigers, Bunnies, Dragons, Eagles, Roosters, Panthers, Storm, Sharks have all won comps in that time, the Raiders and Eels have come close in GFs, the Dogs have made a GF and so too the Warriors.

They don’t have a draft.

The current Penrith team is, to me, the best team since St George won 11 comps in a row, and that side played under rugby union rules, where there were unlimited tackles so the entire concept of the game was completely different so this team is something else altogether and they’ve done it not because of the recruiting constraints but in spite of them. They have lost Matt Burton (rep player), Steven Crichton (rep player), Api Koroisau (rep player), Spencer Leniu (rep player), Villiame Kikau (rep player) - and that’s just the top tier players they’ve lost from their premiership teams, there’s others as well, and they’re still about to play their fifth straight grand final. They’re about to lose two more internationals as well in Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris.

It’s not from recruiting other players, it’s just sustained excellence at development and bringing players through their own system and looking in other catchment areas.

Regardless, the fact is that they built that all without a draft, they just developed it.

The Roosters are often derided as having a bottomless checkbook but they don’t have a junior goldmine like Penrith but have continually found 17-18 year olds from all over the place: western Sydney, the central coast, Queensland, the pacific islands, New Zealand, and while they do raid the odd team for a gun player, they too have put together a gun side for much of that time without the need for a draft.

Melbourne have made an art form out of using bits and pieces players from elsewhere that aren’t used properly combined with talent ID programs in Queensland.

All around that, teams have their junior clubs that they develop through and they all have talent scouts all over the place bringing players into their Harold Matts and SG Ball sides.

Just because American sports have drafts, and the biggest world sports outside of there don’t, doesn’t mean it is the inherently perfect model to go off.

 

[garlic munchers]

View attachment 2129888


A short list of F/S or other draft/FA/List management rorts affecting recent flags:

2024 Lions - Ashcroft, Fletcher, Hipwood (1st round academy). Andrews and Payne were later Academy picks (though Harris was a second round bid under the old 2014 system)

2023 Pies - Darcy Moore, Daicos x2, Quaynor, Pendles (the priority pick in 2010 was Dale Thomas - but the 'extra' pick was pendles)

2022 Cats - Hawkins F/S under old F/S rules

2021 Dees - Tanking scandal, priority picks, AFL fudging of the FA compo formula to let them get Brayshaw from Frawley leaving, Viney F/S

2019-2020 Tiges - could argue getting Lynch as FA when you were the minor premier isn't exactly doing it the hard way, but legitimate enough under the rules, so maybe no asterisk? 2020 flag a mickey mouse one under COVID conditions.

2018 West Coast - Shuey a priority end of round 1 selection in 2008

2017 Tiges - Rance a priority end of round 1 selection in 07

2016 Dogs - F/Ss everywhere.

2013-15 Hawks - how many priority picks can one team benefit from?

2012 Swans - COLA

2011 Cats - lots of F/S with Scarlett, Hawk, etc

2010 Pies - Pendles - Dale Thomas was the priority pick, but Pendles was the 'extra' pick (as they would have had pick 2 in a system with no priority picks). Also special shout out to the Saints with Riewoldt as a priority pick after the AFL changed the Brisbane zone the year before to just exclude the gold coast.

2009 Cats - as above

2008 Hawks - as above

2007 Cats - as above

2006 Eagles - Judd was the priority pick, but Sampi the extra pick.

2005 Swans - COLA

2004 Port - concessions for establishment in the comp.

01-03 Lions - retention allowance, getting Voss, Acker and others as QLD zone selections, Chris Johnson from the fitzroy merger.

Looks super damning, but really need to analyze the competition wide advantages in each year as pretty much every club has something from the AFL magic chest.

WC 2018 with an end of 1st rd Shuey (close to being the most least assisted club in 2018, but for the Carlton 'thanks for coming JK' leg up), faced off against the Pies who were more stacked with 'rorts'.

2012 GF - now there's a complete shiteshow of assistance for both sides.

Then AFL got rid of COLA & I suspect most were happy with father son & PP's as an odd helping hand.

Then the AFL in its wisdom climbed the 10m diving board and went full on triple, somersault with pike into the cesspool of Northern academies.

 

[Tom14]

Looks super damning, but really need to analyze the competition wide advantages in each year as pretty much every club has something from the AFL magic chest.

WC 2018 with an end of 1st rd Shuey (close to being the most least assisted club in 2018, but for the Carlton 'thanks for coming JK' leg up), faced off against the Pies who were more stacked with 'rorts'.

2012 GF - now there's a complete shiteshow of assistance for both sides.

Then AFL got rid of COLA & I suspect most were happy with father son & PP's as an odd helping hand.

Then the AFL in its wisdom climbed the 10m diving board and went full on triple, somersault with pike into the cesspool of Northern academies.

Putting aside draft concessions - the fixture is totally unequal, both from a travel sense and from a who gets marquee games sense.

Access to assistant coaches is unequal. The draft pool is unequal given majority is still from Victoria. The draw is stuffed because you don’t and can’t play each team twice home and away.

Marvel tenant clubs are disadvantaged because they have the least home ground advantage in the comp.

It will never be an equal competition - Q is whether the settings are appropriate given that.

I think pretty clearly the changes to draft bidding for 2025 are a step in the right direction but time will tell if they are correct.