Expansion Is league in western sydney really that strong

[Professor Knowall]

Sydney is an extremely difficult city to get around. Melbourne is not. The only city where you can make fair comparisons is in Brisbane where both the AFL and the NRL only have one team in the city.

I don't think there is a ground in Sydney that was more difficult to get to than Waverley (VFL) Park - stuck way out in the remote outer suburbs and with virtually no public transport at all. Getting there and back was an all day expedition, yet it still drew huge crowds.

But even if we ignore all the other evidence of Australian Football's crowd pulling culture (Subiaco, SANFL, Vic country footy) that extend well beyond Melbourne, and just use your Brisbane comparison, Lions crowds compared to Broncos, it still stands up well, with very healthy Lions attendances, given that we're talking about a rugby league heartland area.

And relating this back to West Sydney, well as I said, I'm not expecting any sort of overnight success - it'll take a generation to build that culture. As I said a few posts back - "once started up there, it might take 20 years to really grow strong roots and be self sustaining, but given sufficient financial support for a number of years, and also investment in grassroots participation in our game, it should eventually have a firm place in the Western suburbs sporting landscape. Just don't expect it to happen overnight. As the old saying goes - "Rome wasn't built in a day".

 

[Professor Knowall]

Y ... Remember thatn 99 out of 100 games at the MCG aren't even half capacity ...

Ahem - correction for the sake of accuracy. Since Rd 1 2007, 1,179,508 supporters have watched the Pies at the 'G -at an average of 62,079. That average includes lower drawing games against interstate clubs such as Port and Fremantle (twice). And that average is certain to increase this year - e.g. next weeks Collingwood crowd could well exceed 80,000, and after that comes the ANZAC day sell-out.

So it's nothing even remotely like "99 out of 100" less than half capacity. In Collingwoods case, its very rare not to exceed that mark

 

[genghiskhan]

And relating this back to West Sydney, well as I said, I'm not expecting any sort of overnight success - it'll take a generation to build that culture. As I said a few posts back - "once started up there, it might take 20 years to really grow strong roots and be self sustaining, but given sufficient financial support for a number of years, and also investment in grassroots participation in our game, it should eventually have a firm place in the Western suburbs sporting landscape. Just don't expect it to happen overnight. As the old saying goes - "Rome wasn't built in a day".

As far as I can gather, AFL fans think a west Sydney team would be successful because Australian rules is a superior game to all others. They sort of believe that once league, soccer, basketball, union fans see a game at its best, then they will cast aside their second rate sports and jump on board.

I've always been cynical to this perspective because league, soccer, basketball and union fans have tended to think the same way of their sport. They think if they put a team in melbourne, eventually it will take over. Things don't seem to pan out that way though. Fans see the other sport and say its shit.

I am not going to say that the task is impossible, and a west Sydney team has no chance of doing any better than the Kangaroos. I just don't have faith in the marketing ability of the AFL. I don't doubt their ability to negotiate TV contracts, or sponsorship deals, but I do doubt their ability to package their product in a way that appeals to rugby league fans in western Sydney. I've just seen so much stupidity over the last 20 years. First Swans, then Kangaroos, then Eddie McGuire in his Mexican hat. They are a bit like you. They always think that you just need to get the media on board and then the mindless sheep of Sydney will follow.

 

[cos789]

Yeah all true, but you still need a suitably located central venue with public transport access for the masses to allow the culture of mass attendance to flourish. Sydney does not have that and never will.

Hello , hello , hello ,
Anybody home ?

Homebush is the geographical centre of Sydney .
It is well served by public transport .
It is not ideal like the MCG , but is is better than every other major
football stadium stadium in Australia .
It doesn't stop the Sydney Swans fans from attending games .


.

 

[cos789]

As far as I can gather, AFL fans think a west Sydney team would be successful because Australian rules is a superior game to all others.

Yes , that is only natural .
Sports fans usually say their sport is best .

They sort of believe that once league, soccer, basketball, union fans see a game at its best, then they will cast aside their second rate sports and jump on board.

Sports achieve their own markets .
There is only a small amount of crossover for long term fans .
Soccer hasn't affected the contact sports .
Despite great gains by the AFL in NSW and QLD , rl is still unchanged .
RU hasn't had an impact on other codes crowds .

 

[Professor Knowall]

... I am not going to say that the task is impossible, and a west Sydney team has no chance of doing any better than the Kangaroos. I just don't have faith in the marketing ability of the AFL. I don't doubt their ability to negotiate TV contracts, or sponsorship deals, but I do doubt their ability to package their product in a way that appeals to rugby league fans in western Sydney. I've just seen so much stupidity over the last 20 years. First Swans, then Kangaroos, then Eddie McGuire in his Mexican hat. They are a bit like you. They always think that you just need to get the media on board and then the mindless sheep of Sydney will follow.

There's a massive difference between having a club based 100% in the heart of West Sydney, and the Kangaroos stupid plan to fly in and out of Sydney 11 times a year.

As for your last sentence, well only you mentioned the media in this thread, I didn't once. Instead, I'm talking about the impact of a local AFL club for West Sydney combined with "... investment in grassroots participation in our game ..." (just check my second last post), over the course of a generation. Thats a long way from just expecting it to happen.

Your last sentence sounds a bit xenophobic, as if you really don't want it to happen.

 

[cos789]

Remember thatn 99 out of 100 games at the MCG aren't even half capacity and nobody suggests the MCG is too big or unjustified.

That's because your statement is simply untrue .

 

[cos789]

They always think that you just need to get the media on board and then the mindless sheep of Sydney will follow.

Well I see it's worked wonders for the nrl .

.

 

[littleduck]

That's because your statement is simply untrue .

95 out of every 100 games then???

 

[genghiskhan]

There's a massive difference between having a club based 100% in the heart of West Sydney, and the Kangaroos stupid plan to fly in and out of Sydney 11 times a year.

As for your last sentence, well only you mentioned the media in this thread, I didn't once. Instead, I'm talking about the impact of a local AFL club for West Sydney combined with "... investment in grassroots participation in our game ..." (just check my second last post), over the course of a generation. Thats a long way from just expecting it to happen.

Your last sentence sounds a bit xenophobic, as if you really don't want it to happen.

My apologies. I had you confused with another poster who believed the media is the key to everything.

Not sure why you think the last line is xenophobic. What has questioning the media's power to influence the masses got to do with xenophobia?

But since you are asking me my attitude towards that, I'd have to say yes, I prefer a world that is not full of mindless sheep that do what they are told my journalists. I prefer social change to come from the bottom up, not top down. I also think that is the only way change can occur. Relating this back to football, the AFL's strategy in Sydney has traditionally been top-down, and it has not been successful. Yes, it is now investing in grassroots participation and that is a step in the right direction, but there are many other steps relating to branding and marketing that also need to be taken. I am not convinced they will take these steps. It wouldn't surprise me if they even tried to relocate a Melbourne club again some time.

 

[littleduck]

My apologies. I had you confused with another poster who believed the media is the key to everything.

Anybody who argues the media sustains Rugby League need only consider that the media has only been a major player in sport for the past 15-20 years and for the first 80-85 of the game in Australia it dominated hansomely without the current media spotlight.

 

[genghiskhan]

Anybody who argues the media sustains Rugby League need only consider that the media has only been a major player in sport for the past 15-20 years and for the first 80-85 of the game in Australia it dominated hansomely without the current media spotlight.

In any case, the internet gives you choice. If you don't like what Sydney jounrnalists are writing in the newspapers, you get online and read Melbourne journalists. It just so happens, most Sydney residents prefer to read what Sydney journalists write instead of what Melbourne journalists write. Perfectly logical if you think about it.

 

[cos789]

Anybody who argues the media sustains Rugby League need only consider that the media has only been a major player in sport for the past 15-20 years .

So you like living in the past ?

15~20 years is not a serious amount of time in your opinion ?

Do you know just when newspapers were invented and just
how long they've been carrying sports news ?

 

[Professor Knowall]

95 out of every 100 games then???

OK, I'll repeat - Since Rd 1 2007, 1,179,508 supporters have watched the Pies at the 'G -at an average of 62,079. That average includes lower drawing games against interstate clubs such as Port and Fremantle (twice). And that average is certain to increase this year - e.g. next weeks Collingwood crowd could well exceed 80,000, and after that comes the ANZAC day sell-out.

So it's nothing even remotely like "99 out of 100" or "95 out of 100". In fact, it happens at least once on most weekends from Round 1 to the Grand final. In Collingwoods case, its very rare not to exceed that mark

 

[Professor Knowall]

... But since you are asking me my attitude towards that, I'd have to say yes, I prefer a world that is not full of mindless sheep that do what they are told my journalists. I prefer social change to come from the bottom up, not top down. I also think that is the only way change can occur.

OK - Not the only way, but I agree to it being the preferred way for change to occur.

... Relating this back to football, the AFL's strategy in Sydney has traditionally been top-down, and it has not been successful. Yes, it is now investing in grassroots participation and that is a step in the right direction, but there are many other steps relating to branding and marketing that also need to be taken. I am not convinced they will take these steps. It wouldn't surprise me if they even tried to relocate a Melbourne club again some time.

Don't disagree (mostly), particularly to past history, but perhaps you have underestimated the amounts invested in grassroots participation over the last 5-6 years, which has seen a huge increase in participation and new junior clubs formed. But it became ever more apparent that the Sydney Swans related far better to the (generally more affluent) Eastern and Northern suburbs, but not the greater west - hardly surprising given the SCG location, and the price of admittance to the SCG.

For all the grass-roots investment in the greater West, it is obvious that a club of their own is also needed there to give the locals a local team that they can relate to and aspire to, as the Swans are just a bit too remote (which also ties in with your points about Sydney's transport).

As for relocation, well only time will tell, but after all that has happened, I no longer see this as at all likely - not to Sydney or Gold Coast, anyway.

 

[littleduck]

OK, I'll repeat - Since Rd 1 2007, 1,179,508 supporters have watched the Pies at the 'G -at an average of 62,079. That average includes lower drawing games against interstate clubs such as Port and Fremantle (twice). And that average is certain to increase this year - e.g. next weeks Collingwood crowd could well exceed 80,000, and after that comes the ANZAC day sell-out.

So it's nothing even remotely like "99 out of 100" or "95 out of 100". In fact, it happens at least once on most weekends from Round 1 to the Grand final. In Collingwoods case, its very rare not to exceed that mark

I said 95 out of every 100 AFL games @ MCG are less than half-full but nobody (rightly) suggests that the 100,000 capacity is not warranted.

 

[Shinboner Schem]

Although they never said they would be moving, they did change their name from the Nth Melbourne Kangaroos to the Northern Kangaroos and then the Kangaroos. A contract was signed with Stadium Australia and I remember reading on the AFL website that they would be relocating within 5-10 years.

As for losing money, Nth lost nothing, but the AFL lost money. I'd say the Swans lost as well. The football climate pre-Kangaroos was far more prosperous than post-Kangaroos.

At times, AFL people seem to think that exposure will always lead to an increase in popularity. I don't agree with that perspective. It seemed the long the Kangaroos stayed in Sydney, the less fans were there to watch.

The club only went from North Melbourne to "The Kangaroos" in 1998, there was no in-between. A contract to play games may have been struck but relocation was only speculation from the media.

I am pretty sure the Kangaroos had a commitment to relocate. They just had two main issues to address. The first one was that their Sydney membership was only a couple of thousand or so, and not able to financially support them. The second one was that they had 15,000 or so Melbourne members that were supporting them. They were not able to fully embrace Sydney and do what needed to be done because they had to keep the Melbournians happy. Their plan was to build their Sydney membership up over the years and when it was at a similar level to the Melbourne membership they would relocate.

I don't think it was half hearted. It was well-funded and contracts were signed. The problem was the strategy was flawed. It was a classic example of why compromise is never an acceptable solution. A compromise is lose lose for both sides. It was bad for the Kangaroos marketability in Melbourne, and bad for its marketability in Sydney and led to a total loss all round. It was never going to work.

North Melbourne has never had less than 20k members in the past 10 years, so i don't know where you're getting your info from, but it is clearly false

95 out of every 100 games then???

How about 4 out of the past 7 games
http://www.austadiums.com/stadiums/stadiums_crowds.php?id=71

If i really wanted to be nasty, i could have said 4 out of the past 10 games (includes finals though)
Average crowd for the MCG over the past year is over half...
http://afl.allthestats.com/statistics/gnds.php?yrfm=2007&yrto=2008
ANZ Stadium is 63k for AFL!

 

[genghiskhan]

OK - Not the only way, but I agree to it being the preferred way for change to occur.

Don't disagree (mostly), particularly to past history, but perhaps you have underestimated the amounts invested in grassroots participation over the last 5-6 years, which has seen a huge increase in participation and new junior clubs formed. But it became ever more apparent that the Sydney Swans related far better to the (generally more affluent) Eastern and Northern suburbs, but not the greater west - hardly surprising given the SCG location, and the price of admittance to the SCG.

For all the grass-roots investment in the greater West, it is obvious that a club of their own is also needed there to give the locals a local team that they can relate to and aspire to, as the Swans are just a bit too remote (which also ties in with your points about Sydney's transport).

As for relocation, well only time will tell, but after all that has happened, I no longer see this as at all likely - not to Sydney or Gold Coast, anyway.

I agreed with you that junior development has been a step in the right direction. But as basketball and soccer have long shown, you need more than just lots of juniours to build a football club. Image and branding are very important.

As for the Swans and their ticket prices, you shouldn't underestimate the purchasing power of bogans, and tradesmen. A lot of people living in the city and eastern suburbs don't have much money. After they have spent money on rent, hair-care products and clothes, not much is left over. It is also quite a transient population. I think I remember seeing that the average residency in the inner city is only around 3 years. (Although it might be 7. I can't remember exactly.)

On the other hand, places like Stathfield are very high-income areas. Pennant Hills way is prosperous. Lots of tradesmen who have made their money through hard work. Also, being less transient means you have stronger local cultures that are more difficult to break into.

 

[Professor Knowall]

Yes, fair comments. Its true that good tradesmen can make very serious coin these days - and I've no doubt that in all those Western suburbs, there are some very wealthy areas. That said, with my own personal observations of, and interactions with, Swans supporters, I would generalise them (allowing for exceptions of course) as middle class and annoyingly polite even during the game (a complete contrast to what I'm used too!). They just aren't the bogan or tradesmen type.

Here's some snippets from todays press relevant to this discussion.

First, on the chances of relocation -
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,23503473-19742,00.html

"... Demetriou said the 17th and 18th licences were inevitable, with 2011 the start point for the Gold Coast club and possible beginning for the western Sydney outfit. "I have got no doubt whatsoever that there will be 17 and 18 teams, we like 17 and 18 teams," Demetriou said. "The fact of the matter is no (current) club wants to relocate. "No club wants to merge. ..."

And on support in West Sydney (note the comments in bold about participation numbers and it being a long term process) -
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23503280-5012432,00.html

"... Demetriou also said early research had shown there was more interest in the AFL in western Sydney than had been anticipated. "We see it in participation numbers and the attendances at ANZ Stadium," he said. "We sold 8000 three game passes (to Swans matches) last year, and we have sold nearly 9000 this year." More than 40,000 tickets have already been sold to this Saturday night's game between Sydney and West Coast at ANZ Stadium, and research has shown many of the people attending the Olympic Park venue are from Sydney's west. "There are all sorts of indicators and all very promising," Demetriou said.

... Demetriou said the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions were two AFL clubs up against 23 other elite sporting teams in NSW and Queensland and the AFL needed more of a presence. He said the AFL was "cashed up and has a golden opportunity" but it was not about a battle with the other football codes. "People talk about a war in Sydney but I have never used those words. I concentrate on what we can control," Demetriou said.

A project team of half a dozen people will soon be appointed to work with the general manager of the NSW AFL, Dale Holmes, to analyse whether 2011 is an achievable time frame. The Sydney Swans would be consulted and informed at every step, Demetriou promised. He acknowledges it will require a leap of faith to start an AFL team in Sydney by 2011 but said the 16 existing clubs were supportive.

"The challenge that we all asked ourselves was would we be bold enough - we know 2011 is the right time for the Gold Coast - would we consider western Sydney at the same time or shortly thereafter, not two or three years after, and that is the work we are doing in the next six months," Demetriou said. "There are a lot of people who are very bullish but let's do the work first."

Demetriou is well aware it would be a long process requiring considerable time and money. "We would accept that it is a less mature market for a number of reasons, particularly in terms of participation, talent, fan interest," he said. "The question is, would we be bold enough to take the punt?"

Talking about developing local talent Demetriou said: "We may have to do something a bit more radical and a bit more innovative now we are thinking of fast tracking the western Sydney team. ..."

 

[cos789]

Pennant Hills way is prosperous. Lots of tradesmen who have made their money through hard work. Also, being less transient means you have stronger local cultures that are more difficult to break into.

Don't know quite what you're trying to say ,
but Australian football is strong out pennat Hills way ,
especially in the juniors .

.

 

[Ancient and Loyal]

Pennant Hills isn't the Western Suburbs. It's the Upper North Shore...

 

[genghiskhan]

Yes, fair comments. Its true that good tradesmen can make very serious coin these days - and I've no doubt that in all those Western suburbs, there are some very wealthy areas. That said, with my own personal observations of, and interactions with, Swans supporters, I would generalise them (allowing for exceptions of course) as middle class and annoyingly polite even during the game (a complete contrast to what I'm used too!). They just aren't the bogan or tradesmen type.

Yeah, I'm not too fond of the type of people who follow the Swans either. They don't really have any cultural credibility either. If you look at advertisements on TV, you see it is the bogan, the ocker, the tradesman telling you what car to buy, or paint to use for your house. (Women for all family stuff.) Even the AFL used Bill Hunter in their latest commericial. I was visited Melbourne last summer and saw him in a cafe at about 11am with a can of VB and pack of cigarettes. It was a good look.

The people in Sydney that really matter are those bogan alpha males. You might have five impressionable kids who read positive news about the new team and get all excited by it. However, all that bogan needs to do is say AFL is shit and there excitement will get deflated very quickly.

I've been told it was bogans that decided the last federal election, and I have no doubt that it will be the bogans who determine how well the AFL goes in Sydney.

 

[genghiskhan]

Pennant Hills isn't the Western Suburbs. It's the Upper North Shore...

Sort of. It is quite west, and the people out there think very differently to north shore people. I was more referring to a place where you have tradesman and a lot of money.

I can't really imagine a better target market than tradesman. They meet a lot of people. Have an air of authority, money and strong social networks.

 

[ssfc0203]

Sort of. It is quite west, and the people out there think very differently to north shore people. I was more referring to a place where you have tradesman and a lot of money.

I can't really imagine a better target market than tradesman. They meet a lot of people. Have an air of authority, money and strong social networks.

Pennant Hills is about 15-20 km west of Parramatta, about 6 or 7 km from Blacktown. Really, I think they are better off putting a team in the Hills areas, where there are no clear cut lines on what people support, and a burgeoning economy of young families lives.

 

[Rob]

I said 95 out of every 100 AFL games @ MCG are less than half-full but nobody (rightly) suggests that the 100,000 capacity is not warranted.

Stop embarrassing yourself ld. The average attendance for all AFL matches at the MCG last year was 50,719, more than half the capacity. That's the *average*.