Roast St Kilda in no mans land

[Sentinel]

St Kilda have more members than North/Bulldogs. The interesting one for me is the Bulldogs - they've won a premiership in the last 10 years and yet they trail behind St Kilda in membership, and have only a few thousand members more than North.

You have to wonder what their crowds and membership could dip to if they went through an unsuccessful period.

This is not a comment on which club is bigger than another, of which I have no idea, but just wanted to say that you can read two fifths of **** all into member numbers given the way they're tallied from club to club.

In 2023:

• Western Bulldogs had 56,302 members and a reported membership revenue of $9.4mil.
• North Melbourne had 51,084 members and reported membership revenue of $6.9mil.
• St Kilda had 60,239 members and a reported membership and reserved seats revenue of $9.8mil.

Not exactly sure if the revenue figures are comparing apples with apples given the description in the St Kilda financial report was "membership and reserved seats" compared to just "membership" for the others, so they may or may not have included that reserved seat figure here also or perhaps otherwise in gate receipts? What does seem clear is North's membership revenue is significantly lower than the other two clubs.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think they should look to relocate again, probably to Frankston, as their best bet would be to attempt to do what Geelong has been able to do on the other side of the bay. It’s a decades-long project but one that would be worth it if done right. Find the cheapest and easiest way to get Frankston Park to 15k and host two games there against small interstate sides. Take it from there. The outer south-east and the peninsula is an enormous area.

Surely the Seaford debacle means they've burned a lot of bridges in that area already.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

St Kilda has a lot of "dormant" supporters so to speak. A lot of people who are St Kilda supporters but don't engage much with the team.

The lack of success is basically reason why they don't.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

This is not a comment on which club is bigger than another, of which I have no idea, but just wanted to say that you can read two fifths of **** all into member numbers given the way they're tallied from club to club.

In 2023:

• Western Bulldogs had 56,302 members and a reported membership revenue of $9.4mil.
• North Melbourne had 51,084 members and reported membership revenue of $6.9mil.
• St Kilda had 60,239 members and a reported membership and reserved seats revenue of $9.8mil.

Not exactly sure if the revenue figures are comparing apples with apples given the description in the St Kilda financial report was "membership and reserved seats" compared to just "membership" for the others, so they may or may not have included that reserved seat figure here also or perhaps otherwise in gate receipts? What does seem clear is North's membership revenue is significantly lower than the other two clubs.

That's not the full story either though. Against that revenue the three clubs reported the following expenses in 2023:

• Dogs - $5.8M
• Roos - $2.8M
• Saints - $3.4M (again including reserved seats)

So the profit for each club:

• Dogs - $3.6M
• Roos - $4.1M
• Saints - $6.4M (including reserved seats, whatever that actually means)

I assume Dogs members get better swag, wouldn't be hard to beat a $20 Roo Shop voucher or whatever it is we get post-Covid, which I never actually use.

 

[Sentinel]

That's not the full story either though. Against that revenue the three clubs reported the following expenses in 2023:

• Dogs - $5.8M
• Roos - $2.8M
• Saints - $3.4M (again including reserved seats)

So the profit for each club:

• Dogs - $3.6M
• Roos - $4.1M
• Saints - $6.4M (including reserved seats, whatever that actually means)

I assume Dogs members get better swag, wouldn't be hard to beat a $20 Roo Shop voucher or whatever it is we get post-Covid, which I never actually use.

Agree, which goes towards my first point about comparing membership numbers being a bit of a mugs game. From the revenue and expense figures, I'd guess maybe North's numbers are affected by 4 game Tassie members which are cheaper for both the member and the club, and perhaps North is able to somehow get more value out of Melbourne based members compared to the Bulldogs? Impossible to know without more detail, and then you look at the Saints figure which is also reported differently.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

But the small clubs have grown over decades and decades - they just grow at a far lower rate than the historically big clubs.

Hawthorn grew signficantly in the outer eastern suburbs in the 90s when they made a real point of embracing Waverley, whereas every other club (incl co-tenant St Kilda) didn’t want a bar of the place.

If you play on their doorstep and embrace it then people go. And the kids start to support them. It takes a generation for them to grow up.

Kick it off with a couple of games, set some reasonable KPIs and give it a shot. It’s worth trying compared to being just another CBD club playing in front of small Docklands crowds.

 

[glengowan]

In terms of importance to the suits at AFL House, ranked from most to least important.

- NSW and QLD clubs.

gap

- Big 4 VIC clubs (Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond).

gap

- Mid tier VIC clubs (Geelong, Hawthorn, Melbourne).

gap

- Small VIC clubs (North, Bulldogs, St Kilda).

daylight

- Tasmania

more daylight

- WA and SA clubs.

Spot on!

 

[Freshwater]

In terms of importance to the suits at AFL House, ranked from most to least important.

- NSW and QLD clubs.

gap

- Big 4 VIC clubs (Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond).

gap

- Mid tier VIC clubs (Geelong, Hawthorn, Melbourne).

gap

- Small VIC clubs (North, Bulldogs, St Kilda).

daylight

- Tasmania

more daylight

- WA and SA clubs.

Melbourne are not ‘mid-tier’ they have very similar supporter base to Saints, Dogs, Kangas but all are still massive on Australian and world level.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Surely the Seaford debacle means they've burned a lot of bridges in that area already.

What happened with Seaford?
I remember reading that some of it was due to player dissatisfaction with having to travel there, but I find it hard to believe major infrastructure decisions are based on temporary player complaints

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

Is this from that Roy Morgan poll that routinely reports Sydney has a billion supporters?

A billion and a half. You forgot to count China

 

[PerthBoy86]

Happy to be corrected by someone familiar with Melbourne demographics, but I thought the Bulldogs were in a locality with lot of migrants, and hence this presented an opportunity for us to spread our code to new converts? Also Bulldogs have Ballarat as their secondary market, and all parties seem happy with that arrangement?

The western suburbs were and might still be the fastest growing region in Australia. Huge potential for the Bulldogs to expand, and they are growing, but I feel if they'd managed to sustain their success from 2016 they'd start to overtake North and St Kilda, while they're on the same level.

 

[Jane Doe]

What happened with Seaford?
I remember reading that some of it was due to player dissatisfaction with having to travel there, but I find it hard to believe major infrastructure decisions are based on temporary player complaints

Never embraced the area. Players and staff didn't hide there distain for the place

 

[PerthBoy86]

Happy to be corrected by someone familiar with Melbourne demographics, but I thought the Bulldogs were in a locality with lot of migrants, and hence this presented an opportunity for us to spread our code to new converts? Also Bulldogs have Ballarat as their secondary market, and all parties seem happy with that arrangement?

Yeah the western suburbs of Melbourne is a huge area and growing fast. Many kids of migrants who don't have a family team will choose the Dogs. It will definitely help compared to St Kilda and North. Having lived in Footscray, the Bulldogs imo are the last Melbourne club that feels really tied to an area, it's part of the identity of Footscray and the inner west in particular. After the 2016 gf they painted everything red white and blue, a lot of street art etc.

 

[SaintSlayer]

The sooner the Saints face reality and invest in an Internal Review the better for all. There’s been ongoing criticism of players in these forums, however the real criticism should be levelled at the top.

Why is our game plan so negative, why has our midfield gone backwards, especially more so this year, etc.

Our players have become target practice week in week out by supporters, when they been attempting to carry out the plans instigated by our coaches and strategists.

We have a situation now where rumours are players want out and players don’t want to join the Saints. Why would they???

“The fish rots from the head”, and initiate and conduct an Internal Review now.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Demographics of Melbourne - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Considering this map, I thought it would be fun to correlate/estimate the top 3 clubs for each nationality (by ancestry) in Melbourne. Of course there may be other factors involved, so it might be a bit off, but I'm interested to see how this lines up with anecdotal observations etc. Like, of course amongst all of these groups there's a great diversity in who they support, but considering the largest they probably support.

Anglo-Celtic Australian: of course the majority of fans of any club, I would guess the clubs with the LOWEST percentage of non-Anglo supporters would be:

St. Kilda, Melbourne, Richmond/Hawthorn. The bayside suburbs are pretty 'Anglo' comparatively speaking. Like the bay, the inner southeast, Melbourne's 'heartland', is quite well-off with a lot of older supporters. The eastern suburbs do have a lot of Asians, but many are recent arrivals who aren't as into football.

Italians: Concentrated mostly North of the Yarra, it's quite clear Carlton, Essendon, and to a lesser extent Collingwood are associated with Italian Australians, with many great players of Italian-descent having played for all 3, the first 2 in particular. Carlton of course being known as 'Little Italy.'

Greeks: Greeks have a greater presence in parts in the southeast, unlike Italians, but are still mostly found in the northern suburbs, including the northeast. I would guess Carlton/Collingwood then maybe Richmond? Like Italians there were once quite a few in Footscray/Yarraville but not as much nowadays.

Jewish: Not one nationality of course, but I remember an article saying Jewish Australians had a long associated with Carlton, as Carlton originally had quite a few Jewish migrants. Nowadays I think St. Kilda would be the largest as the largest community is around St. Kilda/Caulfield area, then Melbourne and maybe Carlton.

Chinese: Chinese Australians are scattered throughout the metro area, but are especially found in the eastern/southeastern suburbs, from about Hawthorn to Ringwood, Doncaster down to Glen Waverley. Most are recent immigrants, and even many born here aren't that into AFL (not to say many aren't too). I would guess Hawthorn would be first, with their VFL side based in Box Hill too, and Richmond would be no 2, not sure about the third.

Indian: Now our largest migrant group I believe, they're also widely dispersed, but especially in the North, West and far Southeast. I have no idea, but for some reason I think Essendon is well-supported. Bulldogs probably a lot of potential to grow in the West.

Vietnamese: Mostly in the western suburbs with a smaller enclave in the southeast around Springvale area, almost every Vietnamese Australian I've personally met has gone for the Bulldogs, but that's also because they were from the West. But definitely Bulldogs and then I'm not sure.

Maltese: Mostly in the Northwest, so I'd guess Essendon, then the Bulldogs, maybe Carlton and Collingwood.

Other Europeans: Probably a fair mix, I imagine Essendon, Carlton, St. Kilda, Collingwood all well supported.

Turkish: I think Broadmeadows is mostly Essendon/Carlton traditionally, as is most of the northern suburbs.

Lebanese: Similar to Turkish

Filipino: Bulldogs

Malaysian/Singaporean/Indonesian: Probably similar to Chinese

Ethiopian/Sudanese/Somali: Mostly in the West, and I've seen a few wearing Bulldogs gear. North Melbourne would probably have some support, as quite a few live in the Flemington/North Melbourne area. Majak Daw

28

Majak Daw

Age

33

Ht

195cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

D/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.9

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.2

2star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

playing for North probably attracted a few South Sudanese supporters.

New Zealand: For those who are open to Aussie rules...probably no real discernable pattern. Same with the UK born.

Pacific Islanders: same as above, but i think most live in the west

Add any others if you feel like it.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Albanian = Melbourne FC.

Carlton still have a fairly large Jewish supporter base (as well as obviously St. Kilda).

 

[threesixpio]

A fair few assumptions - do you have the actual LGA make up of supporters ? If you cross referenced that Id possibly give this a gander but otherwise poor demography

 

[Lingsface]

Honestly, why would the Saints trade their 23-24 yo key forward for a 31 yo forward, who if you give any credence to his social media posting, is very happy at the Cattery.

Even more odd, as most comments on this thread suggest Saints should bottom out, not go all in. Cameron, in the very low chance he'd want out, would be only wanted by a team going for a cup in the next 1-2 years.

My take

For me - it feels like Saints have already tried the idea of topping up & pushing via trade, but they just didn't have the right cattle to make a concerted finals push. It's probably not a bad idea to top up on the high end of the draft for a few and restock. Good year this year as well for midfielders - which is precisely what they need.

They have some good young talent (despite some patchy form from Pou and Caminiti - but Owens is super exciting), and as long as they keep a few seasoned heads, should avoid the complete ass falling out like North. They just desperately need to rejeuvanate that midfield, it feels very one-dimensional and slow.

Maybe they could look to trade one or two valuable older heads to top up hard - but I'd personally hate to see them lose Sinc or Marshall, as they are fabric of the club players and genuinely compete hard.

Yes, I agree with you that Geelong would probably be the winner of that one. St Kilda need to address similar positions to Geelong in the future.

 

[Gavin Excell]

A fair few assumptions - do you have the actual LGA make up of supporters ? If you cross referenced that Id possibly give this a gander but otherwise poor demography

With ABS SA4 defined zones

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Maybe we should force out our two most expensive players and pay some of the future salaries while we are at it, that will help our rebuild.

You need to be cautious about paying future salaries. You need to make sure it's for players of good character who will stay at the club and the deal needs to be long enough / they're young enough that they are still playing well by the time you start to get a discount from them.

You don't want to end up with someone like Dylan Shiel on your list who you've paid millions to and has contributed nothing.

 

[Red Bull]

The sooner the Saints face reality and invest in an Internal Review the better for all. There’s been ongoing criticism of players in these forums, however the real criticism should be levelled at the top.

Why is our game plan so negative, why has our midfield gone backwards, especially more so this year, etc.

Our players have become target practice week in week out by supporters, when they been attempting to carry out the plans instigated by our coaches and strategists.

We have a situation now where rumours are players want out and players don’t want to join the Saints. Why would they???

“The fish rots from the head”, and initiate and conduct an Internal Review now.

Can’t see this happening.
The president is all in on Ross who has in turn surrounded himself with his mates.
Handing over the keys to the club is very risky business …

 

[Johnny Bananas]

What happened with Seaford?
I remember reading that some of it was due to player dissatisfaction with having to travel there, but I find it hard to believe major infrastructure decisions are based on temporary player complaints

St Kilda were brawling with Kingston Council over Moorabbin, so they signed a deal with Frankston Council for a 50 year lease at Seaford for negligible rent. Within 8 years they moved back to Moorabbin because the players and staff didn't like travelling that far, but also because the locals who used to watch them train stopped turning up, and the media never turned up out there either. Perhaps the player complaints were temporary, but it coincided with an unravelling of their grand final side, a cultural decline and a big increase in debt. So you could say they went back to Moorabbin in an attempt to fix their culture and engage with their fanbase better.

Traumatic toll: Why St Kilda’s Seaford folly is akin to Dons, Blues sagas

One could argue that the relocation to an unloved and soulless venue inflicted just as much damage on the Saints as Carlton’s draft penalties or the Essendon drug saga did to those more powerful clubs.

www.theage.com.au

(From the outside, it feels like their culture hasn't improved much at all, given Max King's body language, but I haven't been around the club to say that with any real evidence.)

Perhaps the lesson there is that it's hard to make a move unless you're significantly cashed up and you can withstand the cultural shift. Hawthorn's move to Dingley may or may not have the same issues, who knows, but at least they're not struggling financially the way St Kilda were at the time.

And speaking of financial struggles, Frankston Council got screwed big time in their attempt to do something useful with the Seaford site. The deal they signed with St Kilda was very unfavourable for them because it doesn't sound like they had a condition for the lease to be terminated or the rent to increase if St Kilda ever moved their training base somewhere else. So St Kilda were still renting the ground for sweet Fanny Adams.

https://baysidenews.com.au/2022/07/18/budget-blowout-at-saints-former-seaford-site/tml

It looks like they renegotiated the lease in 2023 to fairer terms and it's now the Healthy Futures Hub, still managed by St Kilda.

Healthy Futures Hub (Linen House Centre) | Austadiums

Information about Healthy Futures Hub (Linen House Centre) in Melbourne including venue layout, history, records, events, map, tickets, directions and accommodation.

www.austadiums.com

But I can't imagine this has left a good taste in the mouth of Frankston Council after St Kilda screwed them over and cost them millions to redevelop the place. I wouldn't blame them for wanting nothing to do with St Kilda once their renegotiated lease ar Seaford expires, and certainly not trusting them with moving their home ground to Frankston.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

It was relevant in the old days when clubs represented specific suburbs or areas.

They don’t any more - all nine clubs play in the CBD so there is no reason for a newcomer to footy to follow one over the other.

Carlton definitely captured many Italian migrants when they arrived, purely because they settled in Carlton and that was the club and the games right in front of them.

The Vietnamese settled in Footscray and Springvale but, for whatever reason, didn’t really take to Australian football as the previous waves of European migrants did. Otherwise I’m sure the Dogs would’ve benefitted from it.

Migrants landing in the last 30 years have no footy on their doorstep - they’re settling in the outer suburbs due to the price of housing, and all the footy is played in the CBD.

 

[threesixpio]

With ABS SA4 defined zones

Obviously we need to add in football club to the census.

Would you believe I have some family connections in this area? But I suspect that said person will laugh at me and said person is a dirty swans supporter anyway so said person would likely cheat the stats just like they cheat the cap and steal Buddy from me

 

[fake tyrone]

Honestly, the only anecdotal evidence I can put forward is that Carlton seems to have a fair number of supporters of Italian ancestry and that it Collingwood attracts its fair share of supporters of Greek ancestry. I personally haven't met many fans of Asian ancestry and the ones I have met have barracked for Geelong, Essendon, West Coast, Adelaide, and Hawthorn. I don't think the demographics of certain suburbs mean a whole lot. I'm of European origin and despite never having lived in or near Richmond, I barrack for the Tigers. My dad, who was from Ireland, never lived in Geelong after coming here but for whatever reason chose to barrack for the Cats. I'm not sure that other demographics would therefore make a choice based on the suburb they live in (none of the Asian supporters I've been mates with chose a team related to their geographic location).