Mid East Israel declare war after Hamas attack III

[Geelong_Sicko]

ABC News saying an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon may only be hours away from starting.

If that is their future course may Lebanon be littered with Israeli dead. Happy hunting to the resistance forces!

 

[Ghost Patrol]

This says a lot

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

This says a lot

It makes perfect sense, from Netanyahu's point of view. When your people are so utterly reviled because of the actions of a cancerous few, when they start to feel unsafe wherever they go, then they will all need the protective embrace of their own, in the one place they are ensconced.

The Jewish people are not monsters, they are a people and a faith just like any other. The virulent strain of cancer that is the leadership of Israel however, they only do their people the gravest of disservice. They have renounced their collective humanity much like Nazi Germany did, and they fully intend dragging as many of their own into the mire as they can.

The Israeli leadership, both political and military, needs to be liquidated. FOR the good of the Jewish People.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

 

[rdhopkins2]

ABC News reporting the invasion of Lebanon by Israeli forces. Let’s hope this doesn’t lead to a bigger global conflict.

Iran aren’t far off having viable nuclear weapons so this could be catastrophic.

 

[Saint]

Oh, so they're starting a war so that they're safe?

Since everyone knows that this invasion will be met with a generations-long violent response, what do people think is the real reason? Just outright murder?

The longer Israel occupies Lebanon, the less safe anyone in northern Israel will be for decades.

 

[treeebeard]

With billions in US funding, Israel can pretty much fo what they want to their weaker neighbours. I can't see any genuine resistance to them forming in the near future

 

[Saint]

With billions in US funding, Israel can pretty much fo what they want to their weaker neighbours. I can't see any genuine resistance to them forming in the near future

Sure, militarily they can attack and move into territory. But it's the occupation they can't sustain. The iron dome doesn't move out of Israel, so all their forces in Lebanon become easy targets in known territory. Sure, Israel will kill 10-1 civilians to military, and 10-1 Hezbollah fighters to Israeli fighters will die.

But Hezbollah won't give up. The greatest risk of the Israeli invasion is that the Lebanese Govt collapses and the Hezbollah-aligned parties take over, change the constitution to drive out the maronites (christians) and anyone else who usually sides with Israel.

Then instead of fighting a militia, they're fighting a country. Instead of occupying the Beqaa valley, they have to occupy the whole country.

Netanyahu's hubris is going to peak soon, and he wont' stop until he's stopped in blood.

 

[JayJ20]

That's a great post and obviously the complexities of differences of religion and monarchies is easy to skip over.

But MBS has made a point recently that he's worried for his life. He does have a huge security apparatus and imprisons dissenters. But he knows supporting Israel's invasion of Lebanon puts a target on his head with all the groups who usually support him. The Wahhabi religious leaders are at odds with the (current) royal family over how western and modern the country should be and how much they should be in cahoots with the west.

Sure, they hate the Iranians too, but the Wahhabis who bombed the trade centre exist within the upper echelons of Saudi society. Plus, the thing about a monarchy is that a current prince who might be 7th in line can kill a handful of people and suddenly they go from multi-millionaire to multi-billionaire. If the Saudi royal family is seen as supporting the west against Wahhabi interests, they'll kill MBS and his closest family members and become instantly the richest people on the planet.

The more Israel invades with Saudi support, the more likely MBS is to be assassinated. And he knows this. It's the reason all these philandering billionaires pretend to be pious and devout muslims, it's what sustains their support. WIthout the clerics on-board they're just philandering billionaires.

Yep you've mentioned a really important point. MBS is distancing himself from Wahhabi leaders by making Saudi more western which obviously caused internal tensions. Saudi wants to be the new UAE and wants to compete against them to attract international investors. The royal family have immense control over Saudi so going against them would quite literally be a death sentence for Wahhabi leaders. I say that loosely because the royal family are generally still Wahhabi in ideology from everything that's apparent despite the recent changes.

It would be incredibly difficult for them to assassinate MBS regardless of what he does, especially as long as his father is alive, but I doubt MBS would be stupid enough to support the Israelis outside of taking out the Houthis in Yemen. Though I doubt Saudi would actively support the Israelis, I do believe they'll continue their current stance of not interfering. Also, the number of people willing to go against his father is very small as they consider him to have more traditional values compared to MBS.

I would say you're underestimating just how many so-called Wahhabi Sheikhs are on their payroll to spread propaganda in favour of the Royal family. They issue so-called Fatwas pretending to be Scholars when they're not. Some of them even criticised Muslims who were boycotting Starbucks and McDonalds and told them to follow the "leaders who know what's good for you". Basically ordering them to stop boycotting. Many of them only hold the position of Sheikhs or Imams for the purpose of money and not because they truly care about adhering to Islamic Laws.

Even if they're actually concerned about the direction MBS is taking Saudi, Wahhabi leaders know that they will be served the death penalty if they publicly criticise or go against MBS. If it's not the threat of losing their wealth, then it's the threat of death that'll keep them from revolting or even speaking out (at least as long as his father is alive).

When MBS first took control, he locked up a bunch of Wahhabi so-called Sheikhs and even members within the royal family. IIRC, he locked up the former crown prince (the son of his uncle who is twice the age of MBS) after the current king (MBS's father) removed his nephew (former king and brother's child) as the Crown Prince. This rubbed many the wrong way, but it also was a power play by MBS to forcibly attain loyalty to him via the threat of punishment.

Regarding MBS's future as a king, I think the damage is already done irrespective of what happens with Saudi-Israeli relations. MBS's father being the King is what's keeping the peace IMO. If his father dies within the next couple of years before MBS has cemented the "new era", I think there'll be a real possibility that the whole Saudi state will fall within 10-20 years. I don't see them accepting him as the king without a fight.

As for their relations with the Israelis, MBS is all in when it comes to the 2030 vision. There are a lot of projects they have lined up that require international investors as well as more revenue through tourism. MBS has recognised that relying on oil is unsustainable. I doubt they're willing to risk all of their projects failing by directly opposing the Israelis (and therefore the US) unless they have a guarantee. Possibly BRICS? I'm not sure.

I could be wrong and things may become different, but as it stands, I don't expect the Saudis to do anything at all. They'll make a couple of statements condemning the actions of the Israelis, but I doubt they do anything to jeopardise their vision. They're too focused on Iran, rebranding and diversifying their economy. They're very disconnected from the Muslim and Arab world.