Jacinta Allan - Leading a zombie government

[Sttew]

The ‘taking all the infrastructure money’ argument? It’s happening now and NEL, metro western connector is being built

Is the argument really true? Or just like all the skyrail opposition

Oh forgot all the remaining LXR going on

But boo hoo my airport rail. Isn’t coming

Standard & Poors and Moody’s have both said it is really true. Thoughts on that?

 

[QuietB]

Yeah cos that’s its only use

Saving anyone travelling from east to west from spending 30 minutes every day looking at Royal park would be good…

Would have stopped the massive bottlenecks on Alexandra Parade 7 days a week.

But anyone who’s never been stuck there apparently think it never happens and only people going to the airport

Well what is its use? As Peetoo says most traffic on the eastern is commuter traffic entering the city. All that still clogs up Fitzroy and Carlton even with a tunnel.

Anyone past chandler highway will use the NEL to get to the airport. And everyone else is close enough to the Monash.

So if most people on the eastern are going to the city, what is the point of the EW tunnel?

Standard & Poors and Moody’s have both said it is really true. Thoughts on that?

What the **** do ratings agencies know about infrastructure?

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Yeah cos that’s its only use

Saving anyone travelling from east to west from spending 30 minutes every day looking at Royal park would be good…

Would have stopped the massive bottlenecks on Alexandra Parade 7 days a week.

But anyone who’s never been stuck there apparently think it never happens and only people going to the airport

EWL wouldn't have solved the traffic jams.

Most people on the Eastern want the city. Between Hoddle Street and the Tulla there was exactly zero exits from the tunnel.

 

[Sttew]

What the **** do ratings agencies know about infrastructure?

Showing your naivety. They do not need to know anything about infrastructure to be able to say the state cannot afford the debt associated with SRL. The agencies have warned if the government proceeds with SRL the state will take a credit rating hit and do I need to explain what that will mean?

Point worth noting. The agencies are apolitical.

 

[eddiesmith]

Well what is its use? As Peetoo says most traffic on the eastern is commuter traffic entering the city. All that still clogs up Fitzroy and Carlton even with a tunnel.

Anyone past chandler highway will use the NEL to get to the airport. And everyone else is close enough to the Monash.

So if most people on the eastern are going to the city, what is the point of the EW tunnel?

What the **** do ratings agencies know about infrastructure?

Wrong, most of the traffic along Alexandra parade are heading to the other side of the city, I’d know having done the trip hundreds of times and the traffic all keeps going through the choke points past the zoo.

NEL is a joke of an option, went the shortest, cheapest option that funnels all that extra traffic on to what is already the biggest traffic jam on the Eastern at Bulleen Rd…

 

[peetoo]

Standard & Poors and Moody’s have both said it is really true. Thoughts on that?

I remember a fancy consultant saying hawthorn had no choice but to merge. Then a real businessman Ian Dicker came in and proved them wrong

 

[peetoo]

Wrong, most of the traffic along Alexandra parade are heading to the other side of the city, I’d know having done the trip hundreds of times and the traffic all keeps going through the choke points past the zoo.

NEL is a joke of an option, went the shortest, cheapest option that funnels all that extra traffic on to what is already the biggest traffic jam on the Eastern at Bulleen Rd…

There are reports which say the opposite. Anyway the plan was to join the tulla at a different point to the other part of the link.
An already choked tollway with east to west traffic merging in and then leaving

NEL basically follows the path hundreds of trucks take now.

Everyone forgets trucks

 

[QuietB]

There are reports which say the opposite. Anyway the plan was to join the tulla at a different point to the other part of the link.
An already choked tollway with east to west traffic merging in and then leaving

NEL basically follows the path hundreds of trucks take now.

Everyone forgets trucks

The real priority is people getting to the airport from Kew

 

[Sttew]

I remember a fancy consultant saying hawthorn had no choice but to merge. Then a real businessman Ian Dicker came in and proved them wrong

That’s interesting. Relevance?

 

[peetoo]

That’s interesting. Relevance?

‘Experts’. They’d prprbaly tell you to not spend on your infrastructure…just invest it so other places can use the $$$ to spend on their infrastructure

 

[Sttew]

‘Experts’. They’d prprbaly tell you to not spend on your infrastructure…just invest it so other places can use the $$$ to spend on their infrastructure

Nothing to do with “experts”. Victoria has been on credit watch for a couple of years and has warned Tim Pallas. Remember he flew to NYC a month or so ago to plead with them not to downgrade the credit rating. S&P doesn’t give a shit what the money is to be spent on; all they care about is Victoria’s ability to service the debt.

 

[peetoo]

Nothing to do with “experts”. Victoria has been on credit watch for a couple of years and has warned Tim Pallas. Remember he flew to NYC a month or so ago to plead with them not to downgrade the credit rating. S&P doesn’t give a shit what the money is to be spent on; all they care about is Victoria’s ability to service the debt.

Then why are the commenting on what its being spent on?

 

[Sttew]

Then why are the commenting on what its being spent on?

Exactly what have they said? “There is no business case for SRL”? No. All they’ve said is if the government proceeds to commit to a $36B project it will have ramifications on the credit rating

 

[peetoo]

Exactly what have they said? “There is no business case for SRL”? No. All they’ve said is if the government proceeds to commit to a $36B project it will have ramifications on the credit rating

A project with a timeframe in decades? There’ll be plenty of interest rate cycles in that time

 

[QuietB]

Nothing to do with “experts”. Victoria has been on credit watch for a couple of years and has warned Tim Pallas. Remember he flew to NYC a month or so ago to plead with them not to downgrade the credit rating. S&P doesn’t give a shit what the money is to be spent on; all they care about is Victoria’s ability to service the debt.

Absolutely you can make a case that Victoria - and in particular Andrews - have been on an unchecked and possibly irresponsible spending spree.

However - I would much rather the Victorian spending spree by Labor where we can see what they have actually done as opposed to the federal spending spree under the Liberals where there is little evidence or what the hell they spent the money on.

It is also worth noting that NSW has the exact same debt as Victoria. And they get much better treatment by the feds.

 

[Saint]

You're only saying that because nothing of yours is getting affected.

Essentially you're saying, "Hell with your vibrant and functional area of greenery, trees and sporting areas so that the community can benefit from, we need a useless train depot which will be a noisy nuisance and an eyesore."

Also I bet if it was the Libs doing it you'd be protesting like crazy.

Have you looked at a map of anywhere else in Melbourne?

The fact that people in this very green area are complaining that they're running out of green space because the old quarry/dump is being turned into a rail depot is laughable NIMBYism.

Oh where oh where will they find somewhere to walk their dogs? Maybe the park immediately to the north?




I'm being pretty clear that I'm against this project very strongly. To say I'm being very partisan pro-ALP about it is nonsense.

 

[Saint]

A project with a timeframe in decades? There’ll be plenty of interest rate cycles in that time

It's different if you start a mega-project from a strong financial position.

Victoria's financial position is deteriorating (it's still pretty good, let's not go overboard), but the ratings agencies are telling the Govt that if they spend this $40bn now, they'll be possibly adding risk beyond the current credit rating.

The real question is "will the SRL stimulate the additional residential and job investment in those urban centres to warrant the price tag?"

If you use Docklands as the example, it really struggled to attract the jobs they thought it would.

Will the quadrupling of jobs around Monash-Clayton actually happen?

We know from Fishermans Bend that it will struggle without transport. But Monash already has great transport links via the Freeway. Since 90% of employees in the area drive to work, I doubt the whopping PT job is going to attract 4x as many workers (without destroying the freeway along the way).

 

[peetoo]

It's different if you start a mega-project from a strong financial position.

Victoria's financial position is deteriorating (it's still pretty good, let's not go overboard), but the ratings agencies are telling the Govt that if they spend this $40bn now, they'll be possibly adding risk beyond the current credit rating.

The real question is "will the SRL stimulate the additional residential and job investment in those urban centres to warrant the price tag?"

If you use Docklands as the example, it really struggled to attract the jobs they thought it would.

Will the quadrupling of jobs around Monash-Clayton actually happen?

We know from Fishermans Bend that it will struggle without transport. But Monash already has great transport links via the Freeway. Since 90% of employees in the area drive to work, I doubt the whopping PT job is going to attract 4x as many workers (without destroying the freeway along the way).

If it’s managed as badly as docklands, it’s farked.

But suppose it’s management standard is similar to LXR NEL or metro? Might be OK

 

[Saint]

If it’s managed as badly as docklands, it’s farked.

But suppose it’s management standard is similar to LXR NEL or metro? Might be OK

That's for delivery of the project. What about delivery of the planning and approvals spread out across Councils, Environment, Planning, Transport, plus the private investors who would be funding it.

Is the project anticipating a level of commercial investment at a time when commercial real estate isn't doing too well?


For a project which will be relying on commercial real estate (offices) to underpin the whole thing, this isn't a great time to be making that investment decision. Just the idea that they're investing $30+bn making a bet on more bricks and mortar (retail and office) just isn't a great idea. Only industrial is still in positive territory. Who's to say the office drops (WFH etc) won't continue on, negating the need to travel between job centres?

 

[peetoo]

That's for delivery of the project. What about delivery of the planning and approvals spread out across Councils, Environment, Planning, Transport, plus the private investors who would be funding it.

Is the project anticipating a level of commercial investment at a time when commercial real estate isn't doing too well?
View attachment 2126745

For a project which will be relying on commercial real estate (offices) to underpin the whole thing, this isn't a great time to be making that investment decision. Just the idea that they're investing $30+bn making a bet on more bricks and mortar (retail and office) just isn't a great idea. Only industrial is still in positive territory. Who's to say the office drops (WFH etc) won't continue on, negating the need to travel between job centres?

All these things indicate the anticipated population increase can be accommodated in a similar metro area footprint

There will be teething issues. But the things you say absolutely have to go better than 90% optimal

 

[Xtreme]

Jacinta telling the police to arrest protesters...

They might follow your wishes if you paid them you silly sausage.

 

[kalex6251]

expect allen strategy team prepping for a new opposition leader - likely brad battin

which raises the question ..... how do you prepare to challenge a full blown Qooker

 

[Sttew]

The lies continue. Minister for Housing, Harriet Shing, is now denying the Andrews or Allen governments ever pledged to build 80,000 new homes per annum over the next 10 years. She says it was just a "commitment for approvals".

Meanwhile a survey by the Property Council of Australia reveals industry confidence in Victoria is the lowest in the country. Why? Because the tax regime is crippling.

 

[wannabewinner]

Don’t let silly words fool you.

Check stats yourself here.

Jan - Aug 2023 - approvals 21335 in Victoria for all dwelling units.

Jan- Aug 2024 approvals 22685

A growth of 1.6%...

Jan to Aug 2002… yes, 2002. Approvals were 24243. More than 22 years ago.

Cherry picking absolutely. I just picked a random year. 2001 was lower.

Jan 2001 to Aug 2024, the monthly average is 2853. The Jan 2024 to Aug 2024 average is 2836. So just long term average.

Private home approvals were 55,073 vs 55,360 total approvals between Jan 2023 and Aug 2024. So about 287 builds approved outside the private sector….

Building Approvals, Australia, August 2024

Provides the number of dwelling units and value of buildings approved

www.abs.gov.au

 

[Saint]

All these things indicate the anticipated population increase can be accommodated in a similar metro area footprint

There will be teething issues. But the things you say absolutely have to go better than 90% optimal

Yes, the population could be accommodated in a metro area by condensing people into these new urban centres. But does anyone actually want to move there in the numbers they're suggesting?

Considering how Docklands is going, I'm not sure.

People have been talking about reducing urban sprawl since the 60's. The Freeway plans of the 70's were also predicated on creating a multi-centric city, and it didn't happen. What makes anyone think this $30bn investment will make it happen?