Jacinta Allan - Leading a zombie government

[The Punter]

It took her a year, but she's seemed to finally get her act together politically. Yesterday was classic wedge politics from the ALP and it worked fantastically. The YIMBY group inside the Liberal Party, mostly young and of significant numbers, are furious with how yesterday's announcement was reacted to by the Parliamentary Liberal Party.

 

[Saint]

Labor being on the nose has nothing to do with what's been brought up in here. It's all COL related issues. Just like it is Federally. Imagine if they did their research like alot of posters here and got all the facts of whats really going on. I'm a Labor voter BTW and even I'm totally disengaged with what there doing. Arrogant pig headedness in particular around the SRL is the nail in the coffin and a completely wasted opportunity to fix other pressing issues around the state and it will cost them government. The problem I see is that the Libs will have a honeymoon period till basically the next election to use the " Fixing the mess we inherited" rhetoric and there won't be much of anything getting done by than either. It's a tricky spot were in right now as Victorians. Labor's only hope to get reelected next time around is for people to see the benefits of the MRT once it's up and running and the EWL as well. Can see the Libs taking credit for it which they do quite often.

You're right. By the next election, the WGTP will be complete and so will Melbourne Metro, coinciding with increasing return of working in the office.

The problem is that the completion of those projects is going to coincide with a downturn in the construction market. There's no new projects for the workers from WGTP and Melbourne Metro to move onto. There'll be significant redundancies (Or contracts expire without renewal for the contract workers). There's already redundancies in the design houses of those projects.

I wouldn't even be surprised to see a Victoria-specific jump in unemployment over the next 12 months, as the Govt is shedding jobs and workers, and so will their mega-projects soon.

 

[Saint]

It took her a year, but she's seemed to finally get her act together politically. Yesterday was classic wedge politics from the ALP and it worked fantastically. The YIMBY group inside the Liberal Party, mostly young and of significant numbers, are furious with how yesterday's announcement was reacted to by the Parliamentary Liberal Party.

It must be like shelling peas, announcing progressive policies (which are really only a bunch of relatively minor re-zoning - most of the activity centres already had zoning for dense development), which brings out the white-haired NIMBY brigade complaining that the multi-million dollar home they inherited won't appreciate as quickly if the middle-class people are allowed to live in apartments near them.

Just to remind everyone who and what the LNP stands for when it's not fighting amongst itself.

 

[The Punter]

It must be like shelling peas, announcing progressive policies (which are really only a bunch of relatively minor re-zoning - most of the activity centres already had zoning for dense development), which brings out the white-haired NIMBY brigade complaining that the multi-million dollar home they inherited won't appreciate as quickly if the middle-class people are allowed to live in apartments near them.

Just to remind everyone who and what the LNP stands for when it's not fighting amongst itself.

I think there was a time when your last sentence would have been spot on. But the issue here is this policy is going to precipitate the Liberals (this doesn't affect the Nats) fighting among themselves: you have someone like Newbury in one corner and Evan Mulholland in the other. Also, at a time when the Liberals are struggling to hold onto seats close to cities they've always held, it calls into question the commitment to courting votes outside of those areas at the expense of wealthy inner city votes. Newbury's stance on this IMO is entirely based on personal electoral survival (he holds Brighton by 5.1%, not as comfortable as it once was), but people in the outer suburbs want to see more housing anywhere to ease the pressure everywhere.

The Liberals in Victoria have tried a different path to population growth before: in 2018 they strongly advocated for growth outside of Melbourne rather than inside it, and were comprehensively rebuffed. A cogent and internally well-supported policy direction on this issue inside the party is a very narrow needle to thread, and Jacinta Allan knows this and acted accordingly this weekend. For the first time in some time Labor have the Liberals on the back foot (rather than it being self-inflicted as per the Deeming business).

 

[Saint]

I think there was a time when your last sentence would have been spot on. But the issue here is this policy is going to precipitate the Liberals (this doesn't affect the Nats) fighting among themselves: you have someone like Newbury in one corner and Evan Mulholland in the other. Also, at a time when the Liberals are struggling to hold onto seats close to cities they've always held, it calls into question the commitment to courting votes outside of those areas at the expense of wealthy inner city votes. Newbury's stance on this IMO is entirely based on personal electoral survival (he holds Brighton by 5.1%, not as comfortable as it once was), but people in the outer suburbs want to see more housing anywhere to ease the pressure everywhere.

The Liberals in Victoria have tried a different path to population growth before: in 2018 they strongly advocated for growth outside of Melbourne rather than inside it, and were comprehensively rebuffed. A cogent and internally well-supported policy direction on this issue inside the party is a very narrow needle to thread, and Jacinta Allan knows this and acted accordingly this weekend. For the first time in some time Labor have the Liberals on the back foot (rather than it being self-inflicted as per the Deeming business).

Do the Libs think the outer-suburban voters they're courting support Allan's policy?

I think outer-suburban LNP voters are the ones who prefer Urban sprawl. I think very few Lib voters (inner or outer) think that middle-suburban apartment living is something they would consider.

 

[kalex6251]

yesterdays scenes in brighton were laughable (and not in a good way) ...... expect prayer room boy is in 'high level discussions' with rebecca judd to ramp up her unique nimby-styled scare campaign

[edit] or they could wheel out wendy lovell to do her 'thang'

Victorian Liberal MP Wendy Lovell chastised for saying children in social housing ‘cannot mix’ in wealthy areas

Former housing minister accused of ‘postcode snobbery’ after saying there is ‘no point’ putting disadvantaged families in ‘best street in Brighton’

www.theguardian.com

 

[The Punter]

Do the Libs think the outer-suburban voters they're courting support Allan's policy?

I think outer-suburban LNP voters are the ones who prefer Urban sprawl. I think very few Lib voters (inner or outer) think that middle-suburban apartment living is something they would consider.

I was thinking more courting voters (those who haven't voted Liberal in 2022 or 2018) who are under housing stress - those who don't own valuable properties close to the city. From the vision I saw from Brighton yesterday, it was the property owners in that area (predominately older) who were doing the protesting.

Younger people who hope to own their own home (of whatever size or type) in the future would be supportive of more medium density housing closer to the city, and opposing the plan announced yesterday would work in opposite to moves around housing aimed to gain greater levels of support among those younger people.

We have lost the last two state elections with 2PPs at 45% or below. Clearly we need to move people from other columns into our column. That includes courting younger people, and I struggle to see how opposing this plan from the Allan Government is going to do that.

 

[Saint]

I was thinking more courting voters (those who haven't voted Liberal in 2022 or 2018) who are under housing stress - those who don't own valuable properties close to the city. From the vision I saw from Brighton yesterday, it was the property owners in that area (predominately older) who were doing the protesting.

Younger people who hope to own their own home (of whatever size or type) in the future would be supportive of more medium density housing closer to the city, and opposing the plan announced yesterday would work in opposite to moves around housing aimed to gain greater levels of support among those younger people.

We have lost the last two state elections with 2PPs at 45% or below. Clearly we need to move people from other columns into our column. That includes courting younger people, and I struggle to see how opposing this plan from the Allan Government is going to do that.

I think the people who might swing Lib are not the ones who care one way or another about apartments. I think aspirational young Lib voters are more likely to be the ones clinging to the dream of a house with a backyard.

Perhaps there's a cohort of DINK couples who might be aspirational Libs looking for affordable inner-city living. But from what I've seen of the Libs campaigns in outer suburbs is that it's focused on families Howard-battler style. Scare-crime-campaigns and anti-woke and anti-renewables etc.

 

[The Punter]

I think the people who might swing Lib are not the ones who care one way or another about apartments. I think aspirational young Lib voters are more likely to be the ones clinging to the dream of a house with a backyard.

Perhaps there's a cohort of DINK couples who might be aspirational Libs looking for affordable inner-city living. But from what I've seen of the Libs campaigns in outer suburbs is that it's focused on families Howard-battler style. Scare-crime-campaigns and anti-woke and anti-renewables etc.

I wouldn't confuse how Dutton is going to run in the next six months and what the state Libs might do (well, at least until this weekend). I also think you might not think there is a 50%+1 vote population willing to vote LNP in Victoria under any circumstance, which is a mindset the Libs simply cannot accept if they are to win. Among YIMBY elements inside the Liberal Party (and they are considerable - not an opinion, I'm reporting) the Conservatives in Canada and how they've been able to increase their support among young people through strong advocacy for housing is seen as the way to move forward. As I have said earlier, these elements are not happy with the reaction of the parliamentary party yesterday. They have some allies inside the parliamentary party.

This isn't specifically about people thinking they can live in an apartment in a 10 storey complex next to Camberwell station. This is about housing affordability more generally.

 

[Saint]

I wouldn't confuse how Dutton is going to run in the next six months and what the state Libs might do (well, at least until this weekend). I also think you might not think there is a 50%+1 vote population willing to vote LNP in Victoria under any circumstance, which is a mindset the Libs simply cannot accept if they are to win. Among YIMBY elements inside the Liberal Party (and they are considerable - not an opinion, I'm reporting) the Conservatives in Canada and how they've been able to increase their support among young people through strong advocacy for housing is seen as the way to move forward. As I have said earlier, these elements are not happy with the reaction of the parliamentary party yesterday. They have some allies inside the parliamentary party.

This isn't specifically about people thinking they can live in an apartment in a 10 storey complex next to Camberwell station. This is about housing affordability more generally.

I noticed that Dutton doubled-down on urban-sprawl with his announcement last week.

I think the whole housing crisis has so many facets and will take so much to fix that no one solution or announcement will be shown to solve anything, so it's likely that both sides will take small steps but be more focused on being seen to take action rather than worrying about if they're having an impact, since that's almost impossible to judge anyway.

I thought the activity centre announcement wasn't very different at all to the current planning controls for most of those areas. There are already 3 and 4-storey dense apartments/housing (or bigger) going up around most of these areas. And many will retain heritage protection.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

It’s something.

I doubt it’s a cohesive plan which includes services for the new residents. So it’ll be shit.

But it’s something, which is the low bar in politics these days.

Most governments spend all of their time trying hard to do nothing.

 

[peetoo]

A criticism. If there are 50 activity zones, but there’s going to be adequate dialog. Why are 25 of them not being named? Surely they are known and would allow more time for consultation

Is it boiling the political frog slowly?

 

[Not Important]

A criticism. If there are 50 activity zones, but there’s going to be adequate dialog. Why are 25 of them not being named? Surely they are known and would allow more time for consultation

Is it boiling the political frog slowly?

my reading is they are predominantly at railway stations. my main issue is the height and size of the footprint.

 

[Not Important]

love the satire. but when i read anything about the suffering peeps in brahton, like rebecca judd, influencer (whatever the f**k that is) i feel for them. life is tough there.

 

[leon123]

my reading is they are predominantly at railway stations. my main issue is the height and size of the footprint.

thats correct and I think your issue is a fair debate to have. I dont think its a debate that ACs should be the location of increased densification.

My view, have wider catchments of these ACs, but lower density ie up to say 6 story, concentrate of livability urban form outcomes

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

The Liberals in Victoria have tried a different path to population growth before: in 2018 they strongly advocated for growth outside of Melbourne rather than inside it, and were comprehensively rebuffed.

Growth outside of Melbourne really would hard without access back to Melbourne being improved.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

You're right. By the next election, the WGTP will be complete and so will Melbourne Metro, coinciding with increasing return of working in the office.

The problem is that the completion of those projects is going to coincide with a downturn in the construction market. There's no new projects for the workers from WGTP and Melbourne Metro to move onto. There'll be significant redundancies (Or contracts expire without renewal for the contract workers). There's already redundancies in the design houses of those projects.

I wouldn't even be surprised to see a Victoria-specific jump in unemployment over the next 12 months, as the Govt is shedding jobs and workers, and so will their mega-projects soon.

I meant to say the NEL not the EWL but your right about everything else.

 

[The Punter]

Growth outside of Melbourne really would hard without access back to Melbourne being improved.

Improved regional public transport was certainly part of the 2018 manifesto.

 

[peetoo]

Improved regional public transport was certainly part of the 2018 manifesto.

Achievable cheaper than SRL?

 

[MarcMaverick]

Achievable cheaper than SRL?

Definitely.

 

[The Punter]

Achievable cheaper than SRL?

The package was costed at $19b. Achievable is up to others to judge, and judge they did.

 

[Sphynx]

It's a sad couple of days for the state.

I say that as someone who is likely to benefit greatly financially from her announcement, also.

I also say that as someone who has worked on the pointy end of some of these major infrastructure projects in this state, as well as on private equity projects like the ones she is hoping to attract and is well aware of the existing master plans to areas surrounding the suburban rail loop.

There's multiple issues with these "activity centers"

For starters - residential development is in the toilet. It's not from a demand perspective (well it is, but I will get to that), it's from a cost perspective. Feasibilities don't work at the moment. Building costs have never been higher, labour costs have never been higher. Material costs have never been higher. Companies, developers and investors as end users have never been taxed higher (they need to pay back the state debt afterall...).

Major residential towers in the volume they require haven't been getting greenlit and built for 3-4 years now. Most of the major towers in Melbourne are build to rent at the moment (which is very much TBA) or mixed use like hotels and commercial. The largest residential project in the CBD is currently on hold, because presales are nowhere near the number required for commencement despite massive media campaigns on it's announcement as the likely landmark Melbourne building of the future.

Now, if one of your sole target markets are simply first home buyers or downsizers etc (because investors are taxed out of it currently), then you need to offering a product at entry point prices for these buyers, otherwise whats the point? Something not easy to do with the costs of acquisition and construction these days.

Now we get to the product itself. First home owners don't want a 30sqm apartment value managed to the absolute bare minimum in construction quality in a 20 story tower on a major road or next to a train station. Sure, there are people that do want that product, but there's already enough supply of that product in the market to meet current demand.

First owners want houses. They want their own block, they want potential family homes, they want something that resembles something they grew up in.

How exactly does oversaturating residential suburbs with 10's of thousands of tiny/dog box apartments (and you have no idea how some of these developers can fit some of these in, as Victoria is one the one state that basically lets them do whatever they want regarding living space requirements) solving this issue? And then we can get to their true intention here. It's not to solve the housing crisis, it's a desperate attempt to raise the states revenue to pay for their financial crisis with development levies, stamp duty increases, rates, land tax etc and all the knock an tax revenue to this volume of additional dwellings.

Where's the public study which considerers the impact this will have on local infrastructure, like schools, hospitals, medical clinics, parks, open space, parking, sporting fields and amenities etc? Has this been costed into it?

What's further ridiculous is that it seems that the activity centers have all been concentrated in one area of Melbourne, the South East and Bayside, which is traditionally a family centric, residential pocket. Why not spread it throughout the city? Well the answer to that is fairly easy. It's because that section of the SRL will never get built after Stage 1.

The impact on some of these suburbs are going to be absolutely devastating imo. I say that not as someone afraid of not getting a park at my local cafe, but someone who has seen a suburb like Box Hill manifest into what the vision for some of these activities centers are. Which is truly gross, in all honesty.

 

[Sphynx]

The package was costed at $19b. Achievable is up to others to judge, and judge they did.

Not achievable at all.

Not costed at all.

Simply lip service of a semi-justifiable number, with no ongoing accountability or tracking until 4 years after the project is completed and the fiscal review spits out ~$40b.

I say that as someone that knows exactly where some of the cost blow outs of the Metro Tunnel are currently heading.

The SRL makes the Metro Tunnel look like a sand castle at the beach.

 

[The Punter]

Not achievable at all.

Not costed at all.

Simply lip service of a semi-justifiable number, with no ongoing accountability or tracking until 4 years after the project is completed and the fiscal review spits out ~$40b.

I say that as someone that knows exactly where some of the cost blow outs of the Metro Tunnel are currently heading.

The SRL makes the Metro Tunnel look like a sand castle at the beach.

Not sure if we are talking about the same thing: the LNP regional public transport package taken to the 2018 election was costed at $19b. I can't remember if the Parliamentary Budget Office was up and running by then, so not sure who was responsible for the costing. Just to be clear.

 

[Sphynx]

Improved regional public transport was certainly part of the 2018 manifesto.

Was also the bulk of the Comm Games budgeted costs.

A big % of the total budget was infrastructure, road and public transport upgrades to Bendigo, Ballarat etc.