Jacinta Allan - Leading a zombie government

[Saint]

The Age was the same paper campaigning against the City Loop 40 plus years ago.
A very very important bit of railway.

Which impacted every line in the city. Whereas SRL impacts/enhances none of the existing lines.

City Loop Reconfiguration would have.
Metro 2 would have.
Western Rail Plan would have.

Those 3 combined cost less than SRL.

The cost of SRL for the sake of building high density housing and offices in a handful of locations is eye-watering.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Which impacted every line in the city. Whereas SRL impacts/enhances none of the existing lines.

City Loop Reconfiguration would have.
Metro 2 would have.
Western Rail Plan would have.

Those 3 combined cost less than SRL.

The cost of SRL for the sake of building high density housing and offices in a handful of locations is eye-watering.

It does impact other lines though.
People will move around the network differently when it opens.

 

[Couch Coach]

It does impact other lines though.
People will move around the network differently when it opens.

When?
We (Victoria) are broke and the SRL project doesn't have funding.

Victoria needs a Milei or Musk to clean up Labor’s economic mess

The question Victorians must face is whether they would tolerate an Argentinian-type solution to the problems facing Australia’s domestic version of Argentina.

www.afr.com

"A federal bailout of the state’s finances, as is now openly being talked about"

Business warns ‘sick’ Victorian economy may need federal bailout

The state’s auditor-general has warned that government debt is now expected to hit $228 billion by 2028.

www.afr.com

Broke Victoria demands more bailouts from federal government

The federal government has already provided one bailout to Victoria by delivering the state $3.8 billion in additional GST revenue, while New South Wales lost $188 million: Victoria’s North-East Link project, which is being built between the Eastern Freeway and the M80 Ring Road in...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

'Poor state': A decade of Labour leaves Victoria worse for wear - HS Paywalled

 

[Saint]

It does impact other lines though.
People will move around the network differently when it opens.

Compared to any of those other projects, it'll have negligible impact. The business case is based on new trips being generated and based around those nodes, not changing existing movements. Replacing short tram and bus trips with short SRL trips around places like Monash and Deakin.

The network impact, even in the BC, is not great (i.e. it doesn't free up any capacity on any of the rest of the network).

 

[Not Important]

There are more than 150,000 km of roads in Victoria and 23,000 kms are roads directly the responsibility of the state government. But the state government also allocates the majority of funding to local councils for maintenance of local traffic roads.

and it's up to councils to decide which of their roads they choose to seek funding for and how it's allocated. my point is it's not only the state that has all the say on these issues, despite you wanting to exclusively sheet home all the responsibility to them cos of your ideological bent.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Compared to any of those other projects, it'll have negligible impact. The business case is based on new trips being generated and based around those nodes, not changing existing movements. Replacing short tram and bus trips with short SRL trips around places like Monash and Deakin.

The network impact, even in the BC, is not great (i.e. it doesn't free up any capacity on any of the rest of the network).

But replacing those bus and trap trips frees up those buses and trams to run trips elsewhere.

Sydney is seeing that now with the Metro.

Busniess cases with public transport have a habit of underselling.

 

[tandino]

Falling behind Tasmania now.

 

[Sttew]

and it's up to councils to decide which of their roads they choose to seek funding for and how it's allocated. my point is it's not only the state that has all the say on these issues, despite you wanting to exclusively sheet home all the responsibility to them cos of your ideological bent.

This has nothing to with ideological bent and more to do with you refusing to accept the stark reality. This state government is grossly cash strapped because it has put all its eggs into infrastructure baskets including the unfunded SRL. Do you disagree with that statement?

How much do you believe councils are to blame for the deplorable condition of our roads?

Just remember that in the 2023-2024 Victoria's road maintenance budget was slashed by 81%.

What services do you suggest Council's do away with or slash to make up for the shortfall in state funding of local road maintenance, remembering rates are capped?

 

[Saint]

But replacing those bus and trap trips frees up those buses and trams to run trips elsewhere.

Sydney is seeing that now with the Metro.

Busniess cases with public transport have a habit of underselling.

When have you ever known PT services to be cut like that? The 75 trams will still run past Deakin at the same frequency, just with a few less passengers (and not many less). And the Smart Buses along Blackburn Road and Middleborough Road will still run because they serve all the intermediate stops. SRL has no intermediate stops, it's going to be the longest gaps between stations on the metropolitan rail network, even though it's smaller consists and less dense areas.

 

[leon123]

Achievable cheaper than SRL?

cheaper, but will not achieve the benefits, see the SRL as a land supply infrastructure rather than transport.

Regions can not simply absorb the volume of metro growth to any meaningful quantum

 

[leon123]

It's a sad couple of days for the state.

I say that as someone who is likely to benefit greatly financially from her announcement, also.

I also say that as someone who has worked on the pointy end of some of these major infrastructure projects in this state, as well as on private equity projects like the ones she is hoping to attract and is well aware of the existing master plans to areas surrounding the suburban rail loop.

There's multiple issues with these "activity centers"

For starters - residential development is in the toilet. It's not from a demand perspective (well it is, but I will get to that), it's from a cost perspective. Feasibilities don't work at the moment. Building costs have never been higher, labour costs have never been higher. Material costs have never been higher. Companies, developers and investors as end users have never been taxed higher (they need to pay back the state debt afterall...).

Major residential towers in the volume they require haven't been getting greenlit and built for 3-4 years now. Most of the major towers in Melbourne are build to rent at the moment (which is very much TBA) or mixed use like hotels and commercial. The largest residential project in the CBD is currently on hold, because presales are nowhere near the number required for commencement despite massive media campaigns on it's announcement as the likely landmark Melbourne building of the future.

Now, if one of your sole target markets are simply first home buyers or downsizers etc (because investors are taxed out of it currently), then you need to offering a product at entry point prices for these buyers, otherwise whats the point? Something not easy to do with the costs of acquisition and construction these days.

Now we get to the product itself. First home owners don't want a 30sqm apartment value managed to the absolute bare minimum in construction quality in a 20 story tower on a major road or next to a train station. Sure, there are people that do want that product, but there's already enough supply of that product in the market to meet current demand.

First owners want houses. They want their own block, they want potential family homes, they want something that resembles something they grew up in.

How exactly does oversaturating residential suburbs with 10's of thousands of tiny/dog box apartments (and you have no idea how some of these developers can fit some of these in, as Victoria is one the one state that basically lets them do whatever they want regarding living space requirements) solving this issue? And then we can get to their true intention here. It's not to solve the housing crisis, it's a desperate attempt to raise the states revenue to pay for their financial crisis with development levies, stamp duty increases, rates, land tax etc and all the knock an tax revenue to this volume of additional dwellings.

Where's the public study which considerers the impact this will have on local infrastructure, like schools, hospitals, medical clinics, parks, open space, parking, sporting fields and amenities etc? Has this been costed into it?

What's further ridiculous is that it seems that the activity centers have all been concentrated in one area of Melbourne, the South East and Bayside, which is traditionally a family centric, residential pocket. Why not spread it throughout the city? Well the answer to that is fairly easy. It's because that section of the SRL will never get built after Stage 1.

The impact on some of these suburbs are going to be absolutely devastating imo. I say that not as someone afraid of not getting a park at my local cafe, but someone who has seen a suburb like Box Hill manifest into what the vision for some of these activities centers are. Which is truly gross, in all honesty.

agree with many elements of what you have penned.

The fundamental question though, what is the housing solution? All Aus cities are moving towards infill. Greenfield - the continuous urban sprawl can not continue for obvious reasons. Typical lot size is just over 300 sqm on the fringes now.

My view is a modified ACs approach, low-rise higher density with wider catchments around transport hubs

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

When have you ever known PT services to be cut like that? The 75 trams will still run past Deakin at the same frequency, just with a few less passengers (and not many less). And the Smart Buses along Blackburn Road and Middleborough Road will still run because they serve all the intermediate stops. SRL has no intermediate stops, it's going to be the longest gaps between stations on the metropolitan rail network, even though it's smaller consists and less dense areas.

Deakin is served by the 201 express between Box Hill and Deakin. That would disappear quickly.

The 75 is east west along Burwood road so why would it get cut? If anything the frequency would get upped because of the SRL.

Done properly the buses act as local feeders to the stations.

 

[leon123]

As it emerges that wedging liberals is a key motivator for the activity centre policy, I must say I hate when wedge is prioritised especially bad policy.
I say bad policy cos the numbers don’t appear to stack up

I reckon politically it can only benefit the teals anyway

I was told 20 years ago by the development industry you will never see high density in Box Hill or Ringwood

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

I was told 20 years ago by the development industry you will never see high density in Box Hill or Ringwood

And now look at Box Hiil. 6 Towers and counting

 

[Not Important]

This has nothing to with ideological bent and more to do with you refusing to accept the stark reality. This state government is grossly cash strapped because it has put all its eggs into infrastructure baskets including the unfunded SRL. Do you disagree with that statement?

How much do you believe councils are to blame for the deplorable condition of our roads?

Just remember that in the 2023-2024 Victoria's road maintenance budget was slashed by 81%.

What services do you suggest Council's do away with or slash to make up for the shortfall in state funding of local road maintenance, remembering rates are capped?

god, help us.

the degree of council responsibility neither you nor anyone other than those in the know will positively know. all i have been saying all along is that not all roads are totally state-controlled, and that includes some through roads - not merely side streets. please let that key point sink in.

and if you’d assimilated my posts, you have realised i’m not excusing the state gov’t who bear the overwhelming responsibility.

 

[Saint]

Deakin is served by the 201 express between Box Hill and Deakin. That would disappear quickly.

The 75 is east west along Burwood road so why would it get cut? If anything the frequency would get upped because of the SRL.

Done properly the buses act as local feeders to the stations.

It's hardly the type of freeing up of capacity which warrants a $30bn project, though. One bus which goes a couple of kms on weekdays.

Compared to Metro 2, which is half the price and will double capacity through the CBD on the two busiest lines (Cran/Pak and Frankston).

There's just a point where the cost outweighs the benefits. As people have rightly pointed out, they were already building high-rise in Box Hill, Doncaster, Glen Waverley and Monash, as well as along Burwood Highway around the tram line they didn't need the SRL to spur it.

 

[Saint]

agree with many elements of what you have penned.

The fundamental question though, what is the housing solution? All Aus cities are moving towards infill. Greenfield - the continuous urban sprawl can not continue for obvious reasons. Typical lot size is just over 300 sqm on the fringes now.

My view is a modified ACs approach, low-rise higher density with wider catchments around transport hubs

But the timing of it and the cost. There's still residential land in the west and the north which is 25-30km from the CBD. The equivalent of Boronia or Bonbeach in the east and south.

So there is plenty of greenfield still available and in demand. It would still be better to provide a minimum service to the million people already living in the west who only have access to V-Line, to upgrade them to Metro services than to provide a bespoke service to future apartment dwellers.

Half the SRL catching is served by trains, buses and Trams already, while the west has minimal buses and V-Line trains.

Labor MPs express disquiet over Melbourne rail loop

Victorian Labor MPs have privately expressed frustration and concern over Premier Jacinta Allan’s vow to “double down” on the $125 billion Suburban Rail Loop.

www.afr.com

 

[leon123]

But the timing of it and the cost. There's still residential land in the west and the north which is 25-30km from the CBD. The equivalent of Boronia or Bonbeach in the east and south.

So there is plenty of greenfield still available and in demand. It would still be better to provide a minimum service to the million people already living in the west who only have access to V-Line, to upgrade them to Metro services than to provide a bespoke service to future apartment dwellers.

Half the SRL catching is served by trains, buses and Trams already, while the west has minimal buses and V-Line trains.

Labor MPs express disquiet over Melbourne rail loop

Victorian Labor MPs have privately expressed frustration and concern over Premier Jacinta Allan’s vow to “double down” on the $125 billion Suburban Rail Loop.

www.afr.com

True, we have about 25 years of greenfield land left, if we make the gradual shift away from green to infill. It will take years to have a consumer shift away from greenfield. The reall answer is both.... the west as you pointed out needs service and infrastructure provision. But the infill shift will be cheaper and provide more housing in the longer run

 

[Saint]

True, we have about 25 years of greenfield land left, if we make the gradual shift away from green to infill. It will take years to have a consumer shift away from greenfield. The reall answer is both.... the west as you pointed out needs service and infrastructure provision. But the infill shift will be cheaper and provide more housing in the longer run

It would be cheaper to build a metro service to Wyndham (the platforms and formations are all there), which would allow the higher-density development around Tarneit station to occur. That would spur higher density in Footscray, Sunshine for a fraction of the cost of SRL.

Public transport in Box Hill, Glen Waverley and Clayton aren't actually a problem. It sure is in the west.

I don't know how we completely abandoned providing transport to where it is already desperately desired, instead providing it where PWC and Premier and Cabinet decided it should be demanded at some point in the future.

 

[Sttew]

When?
We (Victoria) are broke and the SRL project doesn't have funding.

Victoria needs a Milei or Musk to clean up Labor’s economic mess

The question Victorians must face is whether they would tolerate an Argentinian-type solution to the problems facing Australia’s domestic version of Argentina.

www.afr.com

"A federal bailout of the state’s finances, as is now openly being talked about"

Business warns ‘sick’ Victorian economy may need federal bailout

The state’s auditor-general has warned that government debt is now expected to hit $228 billion by 2028.

www.afr.com

Broke Victoria demands more bailouts from federal government

The federal government has already provided one bailout to Victoria by delivering the state $3.8 billion in additional GST revenue, while New South Wales lost $188 million: Victoria’s North-East Link project, which is being built between the Eastern Freeway and the M80 Ring Road in...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

'Poor state': A decade of Labour leaves Victoria worse for wear - HS Paywalled

If the Federal Government is forced to bail Victoria out of its financial mess, the first non-negotiable condition before one penny is handed over must be that SRL is cancelled.

 

[Saint]

Hmm, we're struggling to pay the bills, debt and interest rates are going up. What should we do?

The ALP decided to take out a massive loan to build a highly-speculative Public Transport Project through the middle suburbs which already have the best public transport in the city.

All to benefit the three groups which pay the least tax out of any group:
1) Students
2) Apartment dwellers
3) Property developers

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Public transport in Box Hill, Glen Waverley and Clayton aren't actually a problem. It sure is in the west.

The routes might be there but the frequency sure isnt.

TT #152: Introducing Melbourne's 2022 updated frequent network maps

A blog about the service aspects of public transport in Melbourne, Australia.

melbourneontransit.blogspot.com

would be cheaper to build a metro service to Wyndham (the platforms and formations are all there), which would allow the higher-density development around Tarneit station to occur. That would spur higher density in Footscray, Sunshine for a fraction of the cost of SRL.

At this point all you would be doing replacing frequent V/Line trains with Metro ones. V/Line's new timetable has trains every 20 minutes.

High density won't happen unless services are frequent. Go look at high density now. There's a common thread there.

 

[Saint]

The routes might be there but the frequency sure isnt.

TT #152: Introducing Melbourne's 2022 updated frequent network maps

A blog about the service aspects of public transport in Melbourne, Australia.

melbourneontransit.blogspot.com

At this point all you would be doing replacing frequent V/Line trains with Metro ones. V/Line's new timetable has trains every 20 minutes.

High density won't happen unless services are frequent. Go look at high density now. There's a common thread there.

No, they would both be running. The V-Lines don't change services, they still run from Geelong and make all these existing stops. But the Metro could add a few more stations and reduce the frequency overall at the larger stations to less than 10 mins.

Even more frequent if Airport Rail trains aren't in the way.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

No, they would both be running. The V-Lines don't change services, they still run from Geelong and make all these existing stops. But the Metro could add a few more stations and reduce the frequency overall at the larger stations to less than 10 mins.

Even more frequent if Airport Rail trains aren't in the way.

There would be next to no chance V/Line trains will stop at Wyndham Vale and Tarneit if they had suburban electric trains. Wyndham Vale might have trains but there will be set down and pick up restrictions added to those V/Line trains.

There's only two places in Melbourne where there are no restrictions. Pakenham and Sunbury.

 

[Saint]

There would be next to no chance V/Line trains will stop at Wyndham Vale and Tarneit if they had suburban electric trains. Wyndham Vale might have trains but there will be set down and pick up restrictions added to those V/Line trains.

There's only two places in Melbourne where there are no restrictions. Pakenham and Sunbury.

They would still stop there, just like the V-Lines from Gippsland stop at Pakenham, Dandenong, Clayton and Caulfield.

The V-Lines wouldn't add the new intermediate stops that the Metro would stop at. The demand for these Metro trains already exists, there's even a stadium at Sayers Road station, but no station or trains. But the Govt thinks it's not a priority. That's why western back-benchers, who are usually well-connected within the party to get those safe seats, will be getting more and more vocal as the next election nears.