Speculation Jack Lukosius [RFA 2026]

[Apex36]

6 (F1) and 20 values Lukosius as a pick 23. That’s not fair value at all.

We’re talking a former no. 2 pick who’s probably the best kick in the game, is 24 and is about to enter his prime, he’s worth more than an early 20’s pick.

Pick 34 going to you would value him as a Pick 14 which I think is fair.

Where he was drafted at this point is irrelevant. That number really only holds weight for maybe 2 or 3 years after a player is drafted, then they’re either a best 22 mainstay, fringe, or depth player. Having been dropped towards the end of the season Luko now sits firmly in the fringe dept, and with his inflated salary as a part of the package, and the club actively telling him to explore his options, an early 20’s pick would be exceptionally generous, and highly unlikely.

 

[courageous_tom]

Adel - Luko & 34
Gc - Rioli
Rich - Adelaide F1

Might be dependant on GC still paying some of his salary next year.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Their F1 could easily be 12 anyways though, so if Luko is worth pick 12 we’d essentially be giving up 20 for nothing.

We were talking a specific trade proposal (6 for Luko and 23). Of course Adelaide's F1 could be higher, but the discussion I was weighing in on referred to pick 6. I also didn't say Luko is worth pick 12, but that's how I reckoned that trade valued him.

The whole point of trading for a future pick is that you don't know what its value will be. It could overvalue him or it could undervalue him. That's a risk that the Suns have to decide whether they want to take.

Richmond potentially get great value (say pick 6), or still decent value (pick 14) for a 28 year old HB flanker in Rioli.

I think Richmond would rather have this year's pick 6 than gamble on what Adelaide will do next season. But we'll see.

 

[GCS in 11]

Might be dependant on GC still paying some of his salary next year.

We’d be fine with doing that I imagine, we are not in cap stress like before and have locked away all our talent for next year.

Might actually be preferable doing that anyways, that cap space could then go to Mac in 2026 for us

 

[mrposhman]

I think it'll be something like.

Adelaide give up F1 and 25
GC give up Lukosius and 20

Assuming a 9th place finish for Adelaide and thats worth about 1239 or about a Pick 12/13 which sounds about right. Both sides take a bit of risk. Adelaide could finish lower than 9th which could increase the trade value, or they could make finals and it could decrease the trade value, but around 9th is a happy medium you'd think for a future pick as its linked to the Crows.

 

[ABAB]

I kind of want the pies to try and involve Luko in a trade for Noble. Not because I particularly want him but just to see the Crows board go nuclear.

Lukosius ain't no Rankine.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I think it'll be something like.

Adelaide give up F1 and 25
GC give up Lukosius and 20

Assuming a 9th place finish for Adelaide and thats worth about 1239 or about a Pick 12/13 which sounds about right. Both sides take a bit of risk. Adelaide could finish lower than 9th which could increase the trade value, or they could make finals and it could decrease the trade value, but around 9th is a happy medium you'd think for a future pick as its linked to the Crows.

9th as a happy medium is generous

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think it'll be something like.

Adelaide give up F1 and 25
GC give up Lukosius and 20

Assuming a 9th place finish for Adelaide and thats worth about 1239 or about a Pick 12/13 which sounds about right. Both sides take a bit of risk. Adelaide could finish lower than 9th which could increase the trade value, or they could make finals and it could decrease the trade value, but around 9th is a happy medium you'd think for a future pick as its linked to the Crows.

I agree this is probably a fair price for both sides. And neither you nor I have a dog in this fight, so there's little bias in our thinking.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I reckon the highest finish for us next year (albeit very unlikely), would be a first week finals exit, so pick 12 would be the lowest value. I don’t think we can go any lower than we did this year, so 4 still the highest value

That leaves the mid-point value at around pick 8, which is probably fair.

Say Luko is valued at 14 - I reckon 8 + 25 for 14 + 20 fair, given the value of top picks? I don’t think so

But again, I can see why it doesn’t make sense for GC either

 

[Crow till I die]

I reckon the highest finish for us next year (albeit very unlikely), would be a first week finals exit, so pick 12 would be the lowest value. I don’t think we can go any lower than we did this year, so 4 still the highest value

That leaves the mid-point value at around pick 8, which is probably fair.

Say Luko is valued at 14 - I reckon 8 + 25 for 14 + 20 fair, given the value of top picks? I don’t think so

But again, I can see why it doesn’t make sense for GC either

What about that contract - if its $1mil per year for 2 years left, then I'd be wanting their pick 13, not 20 in that deal if we are taking on all that contract

 

[Jirik13]

Crows F1 + 27 for GC 13 & Luko

Values Luko at pick 17 which is eminently fair if you value the crows F1 at pick 8 next year.

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

Crows will play finals next year.

 

[croweater 41]

Crows will play finals next year.

We’ve said this for at least 3 years. A fourth won’t make us sound crazy will it?

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Interesting that he hasn’t nominated Adelaide yet. Usually suggests that the team he wants to go to is still in finals. At minimum it suggests he hasn’t made up his mind yet.

Dawson requested his trade 10th of September. I agree though don’t think we’re frontrunners, as we’ve already got our two key forwards sorted. He’ll want to go to whichever club can best sell him a permanent forward role first and foremost.

 

[ABAB]

We’ve said this for at least 3 years. A fourth won’t make us sound crazy will it?

You were expecting us to play Finals in the past 3 years after the massive list turnover in 2019 and 2020 lol.

 

[TakingThePies]

I’m hearing a bit about the Pies wanting him, interesting

Richmond are out as of today.

Pies are monitoring it still, we've always liked him

 

[ABAB]

Dawson requested his trade 10th of September. I agree though don’t think we’re frontrunners, as we’ve already got our two key forwards sorted. He’ll want to go to whichever club can best sell him a permanent forward role first and foremost.

So Richmond, how ironic will that be.

 

[THE_GUN]

Some serious under valuing going on here with Luko

Crows will trade pick #4 for #14 and take Luko

They love him and a ready to go player

The posturing here is just bigfooty flex but list managers will get it done

Easiest trade

 

[Mostyn]

6 (F1) and 20 values Lukosius as a pick 23. That’s not fair value at all.

We’re talking a former no. 2 pick who’s probably the best kick in the game, is 24 and is about to enter his prime, he’s worth more than an early 20’s pick.

Pick 34 going to you would value him as a Pick 14 which I think is fair.

No thanks, happy for you to keep him and his $1m a year contract.

He's a flanker, and a very early 2nd is fair value for him.

 

[Mostyn]

Crows would be backing themselves in to improve next year as well, as they should. Decent chance their f1 is a pick outside of 10, which would mean that’s a horrible deal for Gold Coast.

It could be top three as well. It was pretty obvious how garbage we were this year.

 

[Mostyn]

A 3 way luko keane noble trade maybe.
Crows get luko and 48 for 25 and 42
Keane and 42 goes to Pies for 48
Noble and 25 goes to suns.
I'm sure everyone but Suns will like the deal. Adelaide get Luko for a steal but Suns dont have to give up anything.

What the hell?

Crows give up Keane, 25 AND 42?

Absolutely not.

 

[Mostyn]

The problem is the F1 could really be anything, you were almost a finals team last year and with Luko you easily could finish in the top 8 next year. We’d potentially be giving away 13 now for 13 next year.

Doing F1 for 34 (or 46) + Luko mitigates that risk since we don’t give up a top pick, and then would be able to use that F1 for Rioli.

It’s still a bad deal for us, effectively trading Luko + 34/46 for Rioli, but it’s atleast fairer then some other trades proposed.

You haven't ever finished in the top 8 with Luko, so why would we?

 

[ABAB]

Some serious under valuing going on here with Luko

Crows will trade pick #4 for #14 and take Luko

They love him and a ready to go player

The posturing here is just bigfooty flex but list managers will get it done

Easiest trade

Except ITK posters and media have said we are taking pick 4 to the draft, we offered a big contract for Gulden so know we need a quality midfielder. Sure it might change but unlikely, probably will be F1 instead of pick 4.

 

[Mostyn]

Some serious under valuing going on here with Luko

Crows will trade pick #4 for #14 and take Luko

They love him and a ready to go player

The posturing here is just bigfooty flex but list managers will get it done

Easiest trade

That is the least likely thing to ever happen in the history of the AFL.

Adelaide wouldn't trade their first for anything short of an premium midfielder.

A million dollar VFL flanker isn't anywhere near a pick 4.

 

[ABAB]

What the hell?

Crows give up Keane, 25 AND 42?

Absolutely not.

Better than F1 with Nicks still there.......

 

[Ash1337]

What the hell?

Crows give up Keane, 25 AND 42?

Absolutely not.

You get back 48 so it's not like you're losing much.