Traded James Aish [traded to Collingwood for #26 and St Kilda's 2016 second round pick]

[TheLastEmperor]

It would be enough to get Hipwood or Keays not sure how they count compo picks Frawley would only be 500'000 and Melbourne got a first round compo pick

The Frawley situation was likely a 'fix'. A priority pick dressed as a free agency compensation pick.

You'll be fine getting Hipwood and Keays.

 

[philthy05]

Keays attracts a likely bid from 12-17 , he then costs your 2nd round and moves your 3rd round to end of third round. Hipwood gets a bid from 15-25 and he costs your end of 3rd round , and your first pick next year gets moved back x amount of spots (probably out of the top 8 picks)

Bringing in a pick from aish is going to help a great deal with that. In any case a draft of

Schache/weitering/Francis And keays and hipwood is pretty decent.

 

[blueiris]

Keays attracts a likely bid from 12-17 , he then costs your 2nd round and moves your 3rd round to end of third round. Hipwood gets a bid from 15-25 and he costs your end of 3rd round , and your first pick next year gets moved back x amount of spots (probably out of the top 8 picks)

Bringing in a pick from aish is going to help a great deal with that. In any case a draft of

Schache/weitering/Francis And keays and hipwood is pretty decent.

A second round compo for Leuey would be fine with me really just figured since Melbourne got a first round pick for Frawley Brisbane could get an end of first round for Leuey. We could use that second round pick on either Keays or Hipwood and use the Aish pick on Dixon

 

[dlanod]

400-450 sounds more like band 3 compo to me. That's about what Dal Santo is getting paid at North and St Kilda received a second rounder for him. Not that it matters, with only one pick currently separating band 2 and 3 with Brisbane last.

Definitely is. I don't have the figures on NDS, but Sylvia, Pearce and Chaplin all had published contract details at between $350k-$433k per year which covers that $400k-$450k range nicely.

"Getting" at Brisbane?

As in recent contract? I don't think teams are bound by what teams have paid them in the past.

would Essendon need to pay that much because Yu would offer him the same contract again?

Also , I'm not sold that a contract of that amount gets you an end of first round pick.

Danyle Pearce I think was somewhere from 500,000+ and chAplin was finitely North of $450,000 and both received 2nd round compo. The competition has since tightened up on compo picks too.

I have no idea where you have got your figures for Pearce and Chaplin from as they're nothing like what was reported, but regardless I also can't see Leuenberger touching the contract he's just played out at the Lions anywhere else. The combination of being our clear cut #1 ruck, not having many other players to spend money on, and GWS still having uncontracted signings pushed his last extension quite high I believe.

 

[Cleric]

My mate who is very close with a lot of Carlton officials and players is very, very confident that Aish is going to the blues next year.
Has already called it from what he has heard from the club.
However I can't understand why he would go there.

 

[TheHoneyBadger]

Would be a brilliant move for Carlton, calls Aish's sanity into question though.

 

[philthy05]

Definitely is. I don't have the figures on NDS, but Sylvia, Pearce and Chaplin all had published contract details at between $350k-$433k per year which covers that $400k-$450k range nicely.



I have no idea where you have got your figures for Pearce and Chaplin from as they're nothing like what was reported, but regardless I also can't see Leuenberger touching the contract he's just played out at the Lions anywhere else. The combination of being our clear cut #1 ruck, not having many other players to spend money on, and GWS still having uncontracted signings pushed his last extension quite high I believe.

I was going from memory so could've been off. Definitely know Pearce got an absolute mint offer for what he is.

 

[bird_man]

Pies leading the chase or not?

No idea, although I do think it will be unlikely if the Pies were to get Treloar that you would get Aish also.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Do Carlton need another seagull??

 

[Cringle]

if the ladder order remains the same GCS could be interested in swapping first round pics s part of the Dixon deal, giving them Joshua Schache with Brisbane getting Weitering for down back and Dixon, hipgood as forwards.

Except Carlton have the hardest run home out of the three spoon candidates. It'll come down to the Brisbane V Carlton (Gabba) match to decide the first pick. Suspect GC to sneak in a couple more wins before years end leaving them with #3.

 

[blueiris]

Except Carlton have the hardest run home out of the three spoon candidates. It'll come down to the Brisbane V Carlton (Gabba) match to decide the first pick. Suspect GC to sneak in a couple more wins before years end leaving them with #3.

Our fixture is just as hard as yours

 

[bird_man]

Except Carlton have the hardest run home out of the three spoon candidates. It'll come down to the Brisbane V Carlton (Gabba) match to decide the first pick. Suspect GC to sneak in a couple more wins before years end leaving them with #3.

Don't underestimate the amount of players on your list playing for their career. I think you'll have a better finish to the season than expected.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Do Carlton need another seagull??

Well Yarran is likely to leave, and those chips aren't gonna eat themselves.

So, bring on Aish!

 

[Cringle]

Our fixture is just as hard as yours

Let's see...

Carlton V
Fremantle, Hawthorn, North, Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn

Brisbane V
Melbourne, North, Geelong, Gold Coast, Carlton, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Bulldogs


... so for the run home Carlton play 3 games against top 4 opponents, 3 against top 8-10 opponents and 2 against a bottom 5 team.

Brisbane play 1 game against a top 4 opponent, 4 against top 8-10 opponents and 3 against a bottom 5 team.


I think it's fair to say Carlton have harder run home with less probability of winning playing more top 4 teams and less bottom 5 teams.

 

[lachie charm]

Let's see...

Carlton V
Fremantle, Hawthorn, North, Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn

Brisbane V
Melbourne, North, Geelong, Gold Coast, Carlton, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Bulldogs


... so for the run home Carlton play 3 games against top 4 opponents, 3 against top 8-10 opponents and 2 against a bottom 5 team.

Brisbane play 1 game against a top 4 opponent, 4 against top 8-10 opponents and 3 against a bottom 5 team.


I think it's fair to say Carlton have harder run home with less probability of winning playing more top 4 teams and less bottom 5 teams.

Not to mention the fact I reckon we'll have a few more season ending surgeries conveniently announced in the next week or so.
#weitering

 

[Milux]

Bidding war should bump up his value.

He's not worth Carlton's 1st pick though and we don't have the list depth to offer decent steak knives with our 2nd.

So I can't see him going to Carlton.

How about aish and our second rounder (19-21) for your first?

You guys get aish and a top 20 pick?

 

[Cringle]

How about aish and our second rounder (19-21) for your first?

You guys get aish and a top 20 pick?

Our first pick is going to end up as 1-3... so no

 

[Bucking Beads]

I'd like a pick in the 10-16 range for Aish. He can clearly play but has had a poor year playing in a poor team. We will get low balled with offers for him IMO.

 

[Cringle]

Although his value may be in the 10-14 range his contract circumstance dilutes his value slightly into the 18-20 range. Conversely if multiple Victorian club commence into a bidding war his value may be bumped back to 10-14. It'll depend heavily on who... or if he nominates one club and if it's to Victoria or to Adelaide.

If by chance he nominated Carlton (hypothetical) then pick 20 won't be too far off the mark.

 

[Fatcat08]

Would Brisbane have any interest in Yarran?

I certainly would. He plays a position that's not a pressing need for us but he's an instant upgrade on anyone we have playing that role offensively (yes even Rich). Defensively he has serious question marks but we have a fairly defensive minded set of backs at the moment. There's a bit of Chris Johnson nostalgia there when I think about him in a lions guernsey. Personally I think we lack run off our half backline. Paparone is a long runner but not a dasher, Rich is a great kick and can cut a team open with that, but isn't a run and carry guy. Cutler is developing but far from a finished item or a guaranteed win. Harwood is one I want to see more of as he has the attributes, he runs good lines, deceptive pace and is a decent kick over medium distances, and is much better defensively than Yarran. Beams jnr is also in the mix but is pretty injury prone and doesn't quite have the pace. So realistically i would consider Yarran a decent fit for our defense and someone that could provide an upgrade in our rebounding ability.

However as others have mentioned he's not a pressing need which downgrades his value to us. He's a hard one to place value wise, his best is excellent but hes very inconsistent. Still we're a team, that despite peoples thoughts, lacks pace and run especially in our defense. We have a few zippy types around the place but outside of Hanley we don't have any long running field stretchers which Yarran at his best offers.

I guess what our requirements (picks or player) are will depend on whether we can lure dixon and what GC then want for him. But if we don't need picks for that deal then I wouldn't be against Yarran as an option. What that trade looks like is a hard one. Is it a straight swap? Gut feel is that you asked supporters on here both sides would say no way and would want more. Really hard one to value.

 

[John_Proctor]

Oh god... Please no (yarran)

What is yarran worth? we got Christensen last year for pick 21. Yarran is similar age but a much lesser player. Pick 30-35?

Aish much as it would be disappointing after the year he has had and his contract status pick 20 would be a decent result.

 

[Cringle]

Oh god... Please no (yarran)

What is yarran worth? we got Christensen last year for pick 21. Yarran is similar age but a much lesser player. Pick 30-35?

Aish much as it would be disappointing after the year he has had and his contract status pick 20 would be a decent result.

Why are you posting on an AFL forum... when clearly you don't watch the sport at all.

 

[Kramer1]

Don't underestimate the amount of players on your list playing for their career. I think you'll have a better finish to the season than expected.

Don't underestimate the amount of players on our list full stop. Judd, Gibbs, Walker and Thomas out, let alone depth in Armfield and Warnock...kids will tire.

 

[John_Proctor]

Yarras best equal to Christensen, his worst has had him borderline dropped from a team with 3 wins this season a couple of times... And actually dropped for not meeting team rules this year.

I'm sure someone will give a top 20-25 pick for yarran in the same way collingwood got #17 for Wellingham a serviceable 16-22 player on a team just not really worth that pick (and certainly not to brisbane who have enough 23-26yo mids from roughly the 2008 draft)

The difference between aish and yarran is aish is 5 years younger so still has a chance to show he was worth a pick 6/7. he has already shown he can end up a decent first 22 player like yarran but for 10 more years (only 5 bankable left for yarran) best case he comes on strong and is a first rotation mid at your club for those next 10 years (just using 30 as arbitrary 'over the hill' marker)

 

[Bucking Beads]

This has messy written all over it. I'll be quite annoyed if Aish decides he wants to play at a big club in Melbourne instead of heading home. It'll just reiterate what a terrible decision it was to draft him to begin with.