News James Peatling chooses Adelaide

[cmndstab]

So, for example, let's say that a bid comes in for Welsh in the 4th round, say at pick 50. Pick 50 is worth 273 points. We get a 20% discount, so take 54 points off that. Hence we have to give up picks totalling 219 points.

We have pick 64, which is only worth 101 points. Our later picks aren't worth any points at all. So we would be in deficit 118 points. Let's say next year our 4th round pick is pick 55, which is worth 207 points. Instead, that pick would be replaced by a pick worth 207 - 118 = 89 points, which is roughly pick 65 instead.


(Realistically, on the night, our picks would likely have moved up the order because of other teams matching bids and losing their picks as a result, so our pick 64 will probably actually be worth more than 101 points, and our later picks might even have some value. But we're getting in the weeds now.)

 

[1970crow]

I have never understood it.

Does that mean that if we pick up Welsh using Round 4 that we then dont have a pick in round 4 next year?

Found the update on an AFL.com article, from end of 2015.

League adds safety net to draft future picks

League protects top picks of clubs using academy, father-son choices

www.afl.com.au

 

[jackster83]

So, for example, let's say that a bid comes in for Welsh in the 4th round, say at pick 50. Pick 50 is worth 273 points. We get a 20% discount, so take 54 points off that. Hence we have to give up picks totalling 219 points.

We have pick 64, which is only worth 101 points. Our later picks aren't worth any points at all. So we would be in deficit 118 points. Let's say next year our 4th round pick is pick 55, which is worth 207 points. Instead, that pick would be replaced by a pick worth 207 - 118 = 89 points, which is roughly pick 65 instead.


(Realistically, on the night, our picks would likely have moved up the order because of other teams matching bids and losing their picks as a result, so our pick 64 will probably actually be worth more than 101 points, and our later picks might even have some value. But we're getting in the weeds now.)

The 20% discount only applies for matching bids in the first round.

From the second round onwards, it is a flat 197 point discount.

 

[cmndstab]

The 20% discount only applies for matching bids in the front round.

From the second round onwards, it is a flat 197 point discount.

Really? That seems like a huge discount. Good for us I guess, in that scenario then pick 64 is enough to cover it.

Doing a bit of quick pick mathematics, if pick 64 stays at pick 64 (it won't) then we can cover any bid from pick 49 onwards without going into deficit. From there, for each 5 spots in moves in, we can cover a bid roughly 4 picks earlier.

 

[jackster83]

Really? That seems like a huge discount. Good for us I guess, in that scenario then pick 64 is easily enough to cover it.

Yep, see below from the AFL F/S & NGA handbook:

 

[Mutineer]

The 20% discount only applies for matching bids in the first round.

From the second round onwards, it is a flat 197 point discount.

Are you certain on that applying only to the 1st round?

Be good if the AFL had a current up to date fact sheet on the Draft rules folk could refer to?

Draft bidding and future picks revamp on hold, 'Jamarra rule' to change

The AFL Commission has approved a raft of player movement rule changes to come in over the next three seasons

www.afl.com.au

For 2025, the main changes will be:

• The revised draft value index and bidding system will be introduced. The new DVI will make it harder for clubs to stockpile draft selections to match multiple bids on Academy and father-son selections.
• As part of this, the 20 per cent points discount applied to matched bids will be reduced to 10 per cent. However, the AFL will continue to review this and assess whether it should apply to all or some of father-son, NGA and northern Academy players.
• The new DVI will see points attached to only the first 54 picks (down from the current system of the first 73 picks). There will be more than 10,000 points shaved off the value of the next DVI.
• Future trading of picks will be extended to two years in advance.

 

[jackster83]

Are you certain on that applying only to the 1st round?

Be good if the AFL had a current up to date fact sheet on the Draft rules folk could refer to?

Draft bidding and future picks revamp on hold, 'Jamarra rule' to change

The AFL Commission has approved a raft of player movement rule changes to come in over the next three seasons

www.afl.com.au

For 2025, the main changes will be:

• The revised draft value index and bidding system will be introduced. The new DVI will make it harder for clubs to stockpile draft selections to match multiple bids on Academy and father-son selections.
• As part of this, the 20 per cent points discount applied to matched bids will be reduced to 10 per cent. However, the AFL will continue to review this and assess whether it should apply to all or some of father-son, NGA and northern Academy players.
• The new DVI will see points attached to only the first 54 picks (down from the current system of the first 73 picks). There will be more than 10,000 points shaved off the value of the next DVI.
• Future trading of picks will be extended to two years in advance.

See if this link works:
https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

 

[D Style]

Wonder why we are being so nice to Melb.

Gave em two comfortable trades.

 

[Mutineer]

See if this link works:
https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

Looking at that using Zaine Cordy is the closest to where it seems Welsh may fall it seems the 20% applied if I'm reading it right?

 

[Cromulant]

Wonder why we are being so nice to Melb.

Gave em two comfortable trades.

Probably feeling sorry for them after giving them Shane

 

[ABAB]

Wonder why we are being so nice to Melb.

Gave em two comfortable trades.

They saved us from ourself after rejecting our interest for Petty/Oliver last year.....

 

[jackster83]

Looking at that using Zaine Cordy is the closest to where it seems Welsh may fall it seems the 20% applied if I'm reading it right?

View attachment 2140729

It's 20% of pick 18, which is 197 points.

That doc I found is fairly old, so not sure if it is still correct.

 

[Danger in Texas]

They saved us from ourself after rejecting our interest for Petty/Oliver last year.....

Yeah, not only would we have lost Curtin and likely Edwards in each scenario, but also would’ve given up most of the cap room we used this year to sign all our targets this year

It’s a bit like NM rejecting the pick 1 (JHF) for three firsts (Dawson, Rankine, Rachele) a few years back - it all works out okay in the end

 

[crows dude]

No. Each pick is assigned a value, which starts at 3000 points for pick 1 and decreases slowly all the way down to 0 points for picks from 74 onwards.

When a bid comes in at a certain pick, that pick has a certain value - if we want to take the player, we have to then match that value with our own picks. (There is often a discount applied but I lose track of when and why). So we can use a collection of later picks to make up the required value. If the picks we put together are actually worth more than the required value, then we get picks back to cover the difference.

If we are unable to match the required bid because we don't have enough picks to make up the value, we go into deficit for next year. Let's say the bid comes in at a pick worth 1000 points, but we only have enough picks to make up 700 points. Then we have a 300 point deficit for next year, which means our picks next year get downgraded accordingly.

The only open question is WHICH picks get downgraded. Do we lose 300 points off our first round pick? Or is it later picks? It appears the answer is, it comes off the pick from the round where the bid occurred. So if the bid occurred in the third round, the deficit would apply to our third round pick next year. Presumably if we don't have any 3rd round pick next year, it would then go up to our 2nd round, and so on.


The other spanner in the works here is, in 2025 picks will be worth less than they have been previously. So if a deficit applies on next year's picks, but those picks are already worth less, the discount is then "heavier" than it would normally be. But if we're talking in the 3rd or 4th round, who really cares?

Rightio

Thini ive got it now.

 

[George Kramer]

Yep, see below from the AFL F/S & NGA handbook:

View attachment 2140709

You’re going to put Vader out of a job, good.

 

[George Kramer]

It's 20% of pick 18, which is 197 points.

That doc I found is fairly old, so not sure if it is still correct.

I take that back, make your mind up

 

[jackster83]

I take that back, make your mind up

I'm not Penske material.

 

[Mutineer]

I'm not Penske material.

Neither is Vader...

 

[dogs105]

It's 20% of pick 18, which is 197 points.

That doc I found is fairly old, so not sure if it is still correct.

So 64 can match anything after pick 48 it seems?

 

[Danger in Texas]

So 64 can match anything after pick 48 it seems?

And it’ll come in by 10 or 11 picks, as well

 

[PeterSalt]

And it’ll come in by 10 or 11 picks, as well

Has anyone worked out the possiblities

I've not given it much thought and only really think matching bids for Ashcroft, Lombard and Kako. There's probably a few others?

 

[Danger in Texas]

Has anyone worked out the possiblities

I've not given it much thought and only really think matching bids for Ashcroft, Lombard and Kako. There's probably a few others?

Sam Marshall for Bris, too

Maybe B Campo gets a bid before Welsh? Logan Smith (Giants ruck) a possibility too