Jared Petrenko

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Vader: I'm going to make two responses one where I address your points and another where I play the man.

On your issues regarding Petrenko.

Tackling: I am seriously surprised that a high tackle count would be a minus point, especially after the last few years, His tackling is a huge reason he is in the side still. But you raise a decent point, the question must be asked now are his tackles on his direct opponent or are they chasing down others?

Because if it's his opponent then he might in fact be getting beaten to the ball, but if it's predominantly other defenders it is a further credit to his tenacity.

On his possession count: Even you could see Callinan & Porps spent a lot more time up the ground. I'm pretty sure I saw Porps directly on the ball in the third or fourth quarter. Also there was bugger all defensive pressure on Tip & Tex so they weren't exactly dropping much.

On the efficiency: This confuses me because you clearly blast him when his efficiency is down, but say it's astounding when he has anything 80% If you are going to criticise when it's down, acknowledge it when it's up. He should be moving to the point where his efficiency starts heading north no he is at about the 30-40 game mark.

His performances haven't been great, but they have been serviceable. You point to raw stats in the NAB Cup GF yet he spent the second half in a shut down role, had 7 tackles and some smothers.

The reason why a lot of people like Petrenko is because he tries, so to question his work rate is off the mark. Watching guys like Hendo (last year) who would shirk contests, you'd tear your hair out. Then someone like Pets comes in lays a tackle & kicks a goal & actively gets fired up about it. He built up a lot of love from us for that. He seems perfectly suited to the Sando gameplan and he fills an integral role in that pressure.

He is rough around the edges, but he should be sorting that out over the next two seasons. Presuming you go with the we can't wait that long response.

I am talking about gradual improvement over the next two years, moving to the point where he is a regular rotation in our mids whilst pushing forward.

You should definitely respond to all of this, but if you only answer one thing.

What do you actually expect out of Petrenko?*

*Answer what you think he should be hitting at this point in his career, don't be facetious answer it properly.
 
Now for Vader:

Don't delete this mods, I don't feel I've overstepped the mark with this.

You're entitled to your opinion, that is fine. You are in a position of power here and I feel it is unbecoming to call out people ignorant when you have openly stated you like to stir the pot in regards to Petrenko. So you shouldn't be surprised when people like myself are short with you when you put out another jab/cheap shot

Don't ask us to just play the ball when you are setting us up through about 9-10 months of this stuff and then cry foul when people are failing to address the topic at hand. You are a moderator and should realise this.

Now your position on Petrenko has been well stated, now you start a thread which is ultimately self indulgent with the words with the whole 'educate me' subtext. Rather than just starting a thread on him asking why he should be kept in the side or raising it in the teams thread you turned this into a two part thread. About Petrenko and you.

The other issue is that you are pretty much the only vocal detractor of his on this board (no one else is nearly as vocal as you), which is probably something which you have had a stake in as well. You think he is so built up, when it is because of you calling him delist material last year which started the whole over defending act. You criminally underrated him, yet you call the majority ignorant when it's only a couple which are over selling him in his defence.

You are painting everyone of his supporters with the same brush, whilst you sit in the corner with your fingers in your ear anytime some raises a valid response.

Which comes to my last point, we don't have to educate you in regards to Petrenko. We've tried that and you still haven't seen it, so there really is no reason to at this point because not once have you even flinched in regards to your stance on him.

It's like Carlton supporters in 2010, you can tell them they aren't going to get pick 14 for Jacobs for 4000 posts. But if they continue to believe it despite any reasonable logic to the otherwise you just check out of the thread.

You seem to be a very stats driven man, that's why I believe you don't understand Petrenko's value. You see 13 touches and wonder what all the fuss is about. But you miss the pressure, the value and whilst you see the quantity of his tackles, you miss the quality of them. It's this kind of intrinsic value he brings to the club which justifies his selection. You can't gather Pet's value from ProStats.
 

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Petrenko is one of our quickest, hardest working players, he's a good tackler, and sometimes when he dodges around its easy to mistake him for another former number 23.
 
How old is Petrenko? Some senior players over the years have been worse than Petrenko in a few games.
He's 22yrs 3mths old, the 19th oldest player on our list. To date he's played 37 games (the same as Jacobs), making him the equal 18/19th most experienced player on our list.

He's almost exactly the "median" player on our list in both regards.
 
Tackling: I am seriously surprised that a high tackle count would be a minus point, especially after the last few years, His tackling is a huge reason he is in the side still. But you raise a decent point, the question must be asked now are his tackles on his direct opponent or are they chasing down others?

Because if it's his opponent then he might in fact be getting beaten to the ball, but if it's predominantly other defenders it is a further credit to his tenacity.
A high tackle count can be seen as a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it does indicate a high work rate (as you have suggested). On the other hand, it could equally be interpreted as meaning that the player is consistently 2nd to the ball (as I have suggested).

I think that the tackle to disposal ratio would be a fair metric here. Petrenko's is probably the highest in our team - lots of tackles, very few disposals. That indicates to me that he's 2nd to the ball. If he had a more normal ratio, with the same number of tackles but a higher number of disposals, then I'd be inclined to go with the high work rate theory.

As it is, I see a high tackle count - indicating that he's involved in a reasonable number of contests. I also see a low disposal count, indicating that he's not winning many of those contests (though a high percentage of his possessions are contested). Putting two & two together, I call 2nd to the ball on a consistent basis.

Your point about who he's tackling is entirely valid. Unfortunately the stats don't provide any way of measuring that.
On his possession count: Even you could see Callinan & Porps spent a lot more time up the ground. I'm pretty sure I saw Porps directly on the ball in the third or fourth quarter. Also there was bugger all defensive pressure on Tip & Tex so they weren't exactly dropping much.
Even if we accept that Callinan & Porps spent considerable time up the ground (which I'm happy to agree with), why doesn't Petrenko do the same?

I'd also like to point out that Petrenko can't afford to be just looking for the crumbs left by Tippett & Walker. If he's not pro-active, hunting his own ball, then he's not doing his job properly. Callinan is/was selected specifically for his crumbing abilities. Callinan had 8 shots on goal, to Petrenko's 1. Not all of Callinan's shots came from Tippett/Walker contests, he actively hunted the footy. Why doesn't Petrenko do the same?

Petrenko is probably more than serviceable as a defensive small forward, whose role is to take out one of the opposition's attacking defenders. However, he can't get by on being purely defensive. Rob Shirley tried and his career was arguably cut short by 1-2 years as a result. Petrenko needs to add an offensive side to his game, without neglecting the defensive aspects which many people (including the selectors) clearly value so highly.
On the efficiency: This confuses me because you clearly blast him when his efficiency is down, but say it's astounding when he has anything 80% If you are going to criticise when it's down, acknowledge it when it's up. He should be moving to the point where his efficiency starts heading north no he is at about the 30-40 game mark.
All AFL footballers should have DE figures above 80%, unless they are in & under midfielders who spend a lot of time buried under the bottom of packs at ruck contests. Anything below 70% is poor. Anything below 60% is diabolical.

Only 3 of Petrenko's last 6 games have resulted in DE's in the acceptable range (noting one outstanding performance where he didn't miss a target all day).

OK, maybe I was being a little sarcastic saying that he was "astounding" when he hit 80%.. but only a little, given his low standards compared to most other players in the team.
His performances haven't been great, but they have been serviceable. You point to raw stats in the NAB Cup GF yet he spent the second half in a shut down role, had 7 tackles and some smothers.
I haven't mentioned smothers.. but I did give him credit for the job he did in shutting down Hurn in the MMC GF - and his tackling has been duly noted.
The reason why a lot of people like Petrenko is because he tries, so to question his work rate is off the mark. Watching guys like Hendo (last year) who would shirk contests, you'd tear your hair out. Then someone like Pets comes in lays a tackle & kicks a goal & actively gets fired up about it. He built up a lot of love from us for that. He seems perfectly suited to the Sando gameplan and he fills an integral role in that pressure.
I certainly wouldn't accuse him of shirking any issues. He's a tough little nugget of a player who is never afraid of putting his body on the line. Credit where credit is due.

He is also a tackling machine.. which is particularly beloved, given that this is a skill which was allowed to atrophy to an alarming degree under our previous senior coach. I still think he needs to do a lot of work on the offensive side of his game.
He is rough around the edges, but he should be sorting that out over the next two seasons. Presuming you go with the we can't wait that long response.

I am talking about gradual improvement over the next two years, moving to the point where he is a regular rotation in our mids whilst pushing forward.
Given the depth of talent we have on our list and the players who are just outside our best 22, I think he's going to have to show more than "gradual" improvement if he's to retain his position in the side. Competition for spots is a good thing - and I honestly hope that it bring out the best in Pets.
What do you actually expect out of Petrenko?*
*Answer what you think he should be hitting at this point in his career, don't be facetious answer it properly.
Given the role he plays, I think he should be averaging around 17-18 disposals per game (up slightly from 2011's 15.5), averaging at least 1 goal per game (target of 25 goals per season), without sacrificing the defensive/tackling aspects of his game.

Do you think that these expectations are unreasonable for a player of his age, size & experience?
 
Vader - our coaching groups, past and present, select him in our best 22. That's because he is in our best 22. Is he the next Andrew McLeod? obviously not, and I don't think he'll ever be a "superstar". However, we don't have a team full of superstars that can push the regular "role players" like Petrenko out do we?

To be honest I don't rate him that highly either but you seem to be holding onto this one for the sake of salvaging a previous position. You remind me of one of those cartoon characters that runs off the end of the cliff but their legs are still going.

"Should Jaensch or Brodie Martin be taking his spot?" is a more pertinent question than "is Petrenko s*** or not?".
 
I'm going to assume that Vader prescribes to the same theory that I do - high tackle count for a losing side is in fact a sign that the team is chasing guernseys all day, not that they're working hard. I'll be honest, I have no idea if this theory can directly apply to an individual, especially in a winning team, where that individual has a role to play.

What would be more relevant to ask is whether or not a) he's performing his role; and b) generally beating his opponent. We can make observations on b) but only the coaching staff really know if he's doing a), the proof is if he continues to be selected.

Can I suggest that we put this thread on ice, then resurrect it in our bye week when we're looking for extra topics to discuss? By then the results will well and truly be in.
 
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Bring It.
:thumbsu:
 

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I think you're making some big assumptions on how Sando has instructed him to play Vader.

You've ignored all attempts to engage you on the Max Rooke use comparisons - but I strongly suggest you consider them when viewing his 'output'.

He may not be hunting the ball as much as he may have very specific instructions to play as a defensive forward.

Given Rooke's output in his best 2 years where he was picked pretty much every game he was fit for, and played an important role a dominant side of the competition, I think its more realistic to expect the following of Jared.

12 to 15 touches a game
0.5 to 1 goal a game - (in his role I actually prefer goals contributed and happy with a target of 2 to 3 per game. FYI he's on 3pg at the moment for this year)
3 to 4 marks a game
4 to 5 tackles a game
Alot of impact, intensity and defensive pressure

So statistically less than you're expecting. He does the above and plays as a defensive forward and I'd suggest he's done the role that I believe is expected of him by Sando.

Btw - from the above measures, he's currently on target.
 
"Should Jaensch or Brodie Martin be taking his spot?" is a more pertinent question than "is Petrenko s*** or not?".

I actually think the question is, "Should Kerridge" take his spot?

That is of course if my assumption about how Sando wants to use him as an impact/defensive forward is correct. Does anyone disagree this is hsi role?
 
How else do you explain the fact that he's always 2nd to the ball - hence high tackling stats & low disposals? How else do you explain the fact that half of his disposals came in the last quarter, when all of the hard working players were completely out on their feet (and only those who were too lazy to work earlier had energy left)?

Maybe it is a wrong call.. but it's the call I'm making on the evidence I see before me.

I spoke about this a bit earlier. His high tackle count relative to his disposal count could be because he's always second to the ball - or it could be because he's willing to leave his man more than average, and then has the pace and technique to actually succeed in tackling the guy he's chasing. My reading of his game is that the latter is true.

Likewise, you could assume that his last quarter disposals are a function of his "saving petrol tickets", or you could assume that his last quarter disposals come about because he's the kind of guy who still gives it his all when he's exhausted.

The problem here is that you're taking individual points of data that can be interpreted any number of ways, and claiming they solely serve to back up your claims. They don't. They can be spun in any number of ways, including the way you've spun them, to draw any conclusion you like about Petrenko as a player. Perhaps Petrenko has a high tackle count compared to his disposal count because his hands resemble eagle claws?

You need to go a lot deeper than that before you have any kind of "damning evidence" against Petrenko as a player. I certainly disagree strongly with your conclusion that Petrenko is lazy. He'd be one of the hardest working players on our list.

Skills and ability to win lots of ball are different issues again, and ones where I can at least see where you're coming from.
 
I think you're making some big assumptions on how Sando has instructed him to play Vader.

You've ignored all attempts to engage you on the Max Rooke use comparisons - but I strongly suggest you consider them when viewing his 'output'.

He may not be hunting the ball as much as he may have very specific instructions to play as a defensive forward.

Given Rooke's output in his best 2 years where he was picked pretty much every game he was fit for, and played an important role a dominant side of the competition, I think its more realistic to expect the following of Jared.

12 to 15 touches a game
0.5 to 1 goal a game - (in his role I actually prefer goals contributed and happy with a target of 2 to 3 per game. FYI he's on 3pg at the moment for this year)
3 to 4 marks a game
4 to 5 tackles a game
Alot of impact, intensity and defensive pressure

So statistically less than you're expecting. He does the above and plays as a defensive forward and I'd suggest he's done the role that I believe is expected of him by Sando.

Btw - from the above measures, he's currently on target.

Good, good.
 
A high tackle count can be seen as a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it does indicate a high work rate (as you have suggested). On the other hand, it could equally be interpreted as meaning that the player is consistently 2nd to the ball (as I have suggested).

I think that the tackle to disposal ratio would be a fair metric here. Petrenko's is probably the highest in our team - lots of tackles, very few disposals. That indicates to me that he's 2nd to the ball. If he had a more normal ratio, with the same number of tackles but a higher number of disposals, then I'd be inclined to go with the high work rate theory.

As it is, I see a high tackle count - indicating that he's involved in a reasonable number of contests. I also see a low disposal count, indicating that he's not winning many of those contests (though a high percentage of his possessions are contested). Putting two & two together, I call 2nd to the ball on a consistent basis.

This has already been countered by the small forward argument - comparing his possessions/tackles/goal creation against other close to goal small forwards including Betts and Garlett (see below for more detail). If modern football was a 1 on 1 game I could see the line you are trying to draw with being second to the ball. But it isn't so your point appears a very long bow to draw.

Even if we accept that Callinan & Porps spent considerable time up the ground (which I'm happy to agree with), why doesn't Petrenko do the same?
Clearly not this role as far as the match committee/coaching staff see it. Somewhat irrelevant.

I'd also like to point out that Petrenko can't afford to be just looking for the crumbs left by Tippett & Walker. If he's not pro-active, hunting his own ball, then he's not doing his job properly. Callinan is/was selected specifically for his crumbing abilities. Callinan had 8 shots on goal, to Petrenko's 1. Not all of Callinan's shots came from Tippett/Walker contests, he actively hunted the footy. Why doesn't Petrenko do the same?
He did take a number of marks in this role the week previous NAB Cup GF (one of the 2 games you're basing this argument on)... he failed to convert though. I would also consider the highest tackle-count in the Adelaide forward line over the past 2 matches as an example of hunting his own ball.

Petrenko is probably more than serviceable as a defensive small forward, whose role is to take out one of the opposition's attacking defenders. However, he can't get by on being purely defensive. Rob Shirley tried and his career was arguably cut short by 1-2 years as a result. Petrenko needs to add an offensive side to his game, without neglecting the defensive aspects which many people (including the selectors) clearly value so highly.
5 scoring shots and 3 Goal Assists in two games. If he can continue to generate 4 scoring opportunities for the team per game in his poor games I would say he is doing his job.

All AFL footballers should have DE figures above 80%, unless they are in & under midfielders who spend a lot of time buried under the bottom of packs at ruck contests. Anything below 70% is poor. Anything below 60% is diabolical.

80% is too high for an AFL DE% benchmark - it is more an indicator of elite DE% output. Only 9 Crows managed this standard last year. Porps' 100% from 1 disposal should be stripped from the list. Three others are no longer at the club (Davis/Armstrong/Sellar :eek:). That leaves 5 current players who made the grade in 2011 from a decent disposal sample size.
70% DE would be considered a pass mark for a regular AFL player.

But let's compare apples with apples. This number is lower for small forwards. Consider the list of class act small forwards in top teams below and then set the expectation for Petrenko accordingly...
(Small Forwards from top teams DE% in 2011)
Betts : 71%
Rioli: 71%
LeCras: 66%
S Johnson: 67% (For/Mid)
Krakouer: 65%
Fyfe: 61% (For/Mid)
Milne: 61%
Garlett: 59%

Pets had a 71% DE last season


Only 3 of Petrenko's last 6 games have resulted in DE's in the acceptable range (noting one outstanding performance where he didn't miss a target all day).

Pets' DE% was in the acceptable range last year and in his new forward role this year his output is still in the acceptable range. Based on the pre-season stats you provided yesterday his NAB Cup DE% was 66%, in R1 it was 69%. When compared to the best of the best in that type of position, he sits middle to upper range.


OK, maybe I was being a little sarcastic saying that he was "astounding" when he hit 80%.. but only a little, given his low standards compared to most other players in the team.

When you are dealing with lower possession counts numbers are more likely to vary more dramatically. The average tells the story.

Given the role he plays, I think he should be averaging around 17-18 disposals per game (up slightly from 2011's 15.5), averaging at least 1 goal per game (target of 25 goals per season), without sacrificing the defensive/tackling aspects of his game.

Do you think that these expectations are unreasonable for a player of his age, size & experience?

Yes.
Again - same set of players as before - this time average disposals per match in 2011:
Fyfe: 25.1 (For/Mid)
S Johnson: 22.3 (For/Mid)
LeCras: 16.3
Rioli: 16.2
Krakouer: 15.3
Milne: 13.4
Betts: 12.4
Garlett: 12.3

I have left the top two in there - even as though their figures are not relevant for pure small forwards given the amount of time they spent in the midfield. But from LeCras to Garlett we are looking at the top small forwards at the top clubs last year and none of them managed 17-18 disposals per game. Pets is younger and less experienced than the lot of them. I think you have set unrealistic expectations for him given the position he is playing and where he is in his development.

I would love to see 25 goals from Pets though.
 
This has already been countered by the small forward argument - comparing his possessions/tackles/goal creation against other close to goal small forwards including Betts and Garlett (see below for more detail). If modern football was a 1 on 1 game I could see the line you are trying to draw with being second to the ball. But it isn't so your point appears a very long bow to draw.


Clearly not this role as far as the match committee/coaching staff see it. Somewhat irrelevant.


He did take a number of marks in this role the week previous NAB Cup GF (one of the 2 games you're basing this argument on)... he failed to convert though. I would also consider the highest tackle-count in the Adelaide forward line over the past 2 matches as an example of hunting his own ball.


5 scoring shots and 3 Goal Assists in two games. If he can continue to generate 4 scoring opportunities for the team per game in his poor games I would say he is doing his job.



80% is too high for an AFL DE% benchmark - it is more an indicator of elite DE% output. Only 9 Crows managed this standard last year. Porps' 100% from 1 disposal should be stripped from the list. Three others are no longer at the club (Davis/Armstrong/Sellar :eek:). That leaves 5 current players who made the grade in 2011 from a decent disposal sample size.
70% DE would be considered a pass mark for a regular AFL player.

But let's compare apples with apples. This number is lower for small forwards. Consider the list of class act small forwards in top teams below and then set the expectation for Petrenko accordingly...
(Small Forwards from top teams DE% in 2011)
Betts : 71%
Rioli: 71%
LeCras: 66%
S Johnson: 67% (For/Mid)
Krakouer: 65%
Fyfe: 61% (For/Mid)
Milne: 61%
Garlett: 59%

Pets had a 71% DE last season




Pets' DE% was in the acceptable range last year and in his new forward role this year his output is still in the acceptable range. Based on the pre-season stats you provided yesterday his NAB Cup DE% was 66%, in R1 it was 69%. When compared to the best of the best in that type of position, he sits middle to upper range.




When you are dealing with lower possession counts numbers are more likely to vary more dramatically. The average tells the story.



Yes.
Again - same set of players as before - this time average disposals per match in 2011:
Fyfe: 25.1 (For/Mid)
S Johnson: 22.3 (For/Mid)
LeCras: 16.3
Rioli: 16.2
Krakouer: 15.3
Milne: 13.4
Betts: 12.4
Garlett: 12.3

I have left the top two in there - even as though their figures are not relevant for pure small forwards given the amount of time they spent in the midfield. But from LeCras to Garlett we are looking at the top small forwards at the top clubs last year and none of them managed 17-18 disposals per game. Pets is younger and less experienced than the lot of them. I think you have set unrealistic expectations for him given the position he is playing and where he is in his development.

I would love to see 25 goals from Pets though.

Great post:thumbsu:

I cannot for the life of me figure out how Vader can expect 17-18 disposals from a small defensive forward. (ie the same amount he deems acceptable from a small running defender - Doughty) I cannot think of a single small forward who spends the bulk of their time in the forward 50 who averages 17-18 touches a game. Milne in his bext year ever only averaged 15.9.

No-one is saying Pets is the complete package or that he doesn't have room for improvement but I do think you need to have realistic expectation for him based on the position he plays. I mean Reilly - our first round draft pick midfielder who has played predominantly midfield / HBF took 5 years to average more than 13 touches a game and in his 5th-10th season only averaged between 16-19 touches a game.
 
OK.. let's disregard my previous call about him being lazy. I agree that this is a very un-Petrenko characteristic.

Right now I'm wondering if it's fairer to say that he has become too defensive minded, to the detriment of his offensive performance? Is this a fair description of where he's at?

Looking at his performances in the MMC and R1, his offensive output (disposals) is down by roughly 30% on what he was achieving last year. I didn't rate him particularly highly last year, but that's neither here nor there. At least it gives us a decent benchmark for purposes of comparison.

I believe looking at his performance this way is not out of line with the Rooke comparisons.. is it?

BTW.. please stop trying to compare him to the likes of Betts, Garlett & LeCras. Petrenko isn't fit to stand in their shadows right now and I sincerely doubt that he ever will be. These guys score goals week in week out. Petrenko does not.

Even if we accept that he's been given a fairly defensive role, which I think is probably a given, I still expect him to make more of a contribution offensively. My comparisons with Rob Shirley & warnings about his fate remain entirely valid.

I'm still yet to hear a good excuse for why so many of his disposals came in the final quarter and so few when the heat was on in the kitchen. I don't buy the "still gives it all when he's exhausted" line. That might explain why he continued to get disposals in the last quarter, it doesn't even come close to excusing his lack of them in the first half of the game.
 
OK.. let's disregard my previous call about him being lazy. I agree that this is a very un-Petrenko characteristic.

Right now I'm wondering if it's fairer to say that he has become too defensive minded, to the detriment of his offensive performance? Is this a fair description of where he's at?

Looking at his performances in the MMC and R1, his offensive output (disposals) is down by roughly 30% on what he was achieving last year. I didn't rate him particularly highly last year, but that's neither here nor there. At least it gives us a decent benchmark for purposes of comparison.

I believe looking at his performance this way is not out of line with the Rooke comparisons.. is it?

BTW.. please stop trying to compare him to the likes of Betts, Garlett & LeCras. Petrenko isn't fit to stand in their shadows right now and I sincerely doubt that he ever will be. These guys score goals week in week out. Petrenko does not.

Even if we accept that he's been given a fairly defensive role, which I think is probably a given, I still expect him to make more of a contribution offensively. My comparisons with Rob Shirley & warnings about his fate remain entirely valid.

I'm still yet to hear a good excuse for why so many of his disposals came in the final quarter and so few when the heat was on in the kitchen. I don't buy the "still gives it all when he's exhausted" line. That might explain why he continued to get disposals in the last quarter, it doesn't even come close to excusing his lack of them in the first half of the game.

I'm gonna have another go at this...

Can I suggest that we put this thread on ice, then resurrect it in our bye week when we're looking for extra topics to discuss? By then the results will well and truly be in.
 
I love Petrenko's willingness to compete, his marking ability, speed and a little bit of x factor.

Only problem is he is seems to be competing against Callinan and Porps for the small forward spot. As has been noted, it would be good if he could find a bit more of the footy, as his goals tally is not even close to that of Milne or Betts.
 

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