Since these threads are all the rage - I hope everyone is excited about an I told you so thread for Walker soon.
Is there a date I can mark on my calendar or do I have to settle for a 'coming soon'?
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Since these threads are all the rage - I hope everyone is excited about an I told you so thread for Walker soon.
He's 22yrs 3mths old, the 19th oldest player on our list. To date he's played 37 games (the same as Jacobs), making him the equal 18/19th most experienced player on our list.How old is Petrenko? Some senior players over the years have been worse than Petrenko in a few games.
He's 22yrs 3mths old, the 19th oldest player on our list. To date he's played 37 games (the same as Jacobs), making him the equal 18/19th most experienced player on our list.
He's almost exactly the "median" player on our list in both regards.
A high tackle count can be seen as a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it does indicate a high work rate (as you have suggested). On the other hand, it could equally be interpreted as meaning that the player is consistently 2nd to the ball (as I have suggested).Tackling: I am seriously surprised that a high tackle count would be a minus point, especially after the last few years, His tackling is a huge reason he is in the side still. But you raise a decent point, the question must be asked now are his tackles on his direct opponent or are they chasing down others?
Because if it's his opponent then he might in fact be getting beaten to the ball, but if it's predominantly other defenders it is a further credit to his tenacity.
Even if we accept that Callinan & Porps spent considerable time up the ground (which I'm happy to agree with), why doesn't Petrenko do the same?On his possession count: Even you could see Callinan & Porps spent a lot more time up the ground. I'm pretty sure I saw Porps directly on the ball in the third or fourth quarter. Also there was bugger all defensive pressure on Tip & Tex so they weren't exactly dropping much.
All AFL footballers should have DE figures above 80%, unless they are in & under midfielders who spend a lot of time buried under the bottom of packs at ruck contests. Anything below 70% is poor. Anything below 60% is diabolical.On the efficiency: This confuses me because you clearly blast him when his efficiency is down, but say it's astounding when he has anything 80% If you are going to criticise when it's down, acknowledge it when it's up. He should be moving to the point where his efficiency starts heading north no he is at about the 30-40 game mark.
I haven't mentioned smothers.. but I did give him credit for the job he did in shutting down Hurn in the MMC GF - and his tackling has been duly noted.His performances haven't been great, but they have been serviceable. You point to raw stats in the NAB Cup GF yet he spent the second half in a shut down role, had 7 tackles and some smothers.
I certainly wouldn't accuse him of shirking any issues. He's a tough little nugget of a player who is never afraid of putting his body on the line. Credit where credit is due.The reason why a lot of people like Petrenko is because he tries, so to question his work rate is off the mark. Watching guys like Hendo (last year) who would shirk contests, you'd tear your hair out. Then someone like Pets comes in lays a tackle & kicks a goal & actively gets fired up about it. He built up a lot of love from us for that. He seems perfectly suited to the Sando gameplan and he fills an integral role in that pressure.
Given the depth of talent we have on our list and the players who are just outside our best 22, I think he's going to have to show more than "gradual" improvement if he's to retain his position in the side. Competition for spots is a good thing - and I honestly hope that it bring out the best in Pets.He is rough around the edges, but he should be sorting that out over the next two seasons. Presuming you go with the we can't wait that long response.
I am talking about gradual improvement over the next two years, moving to the point where he is a regular rotation in our mids whilst pushing forward.
Given the role he plays, I think he should be averaging around 17-18 disposals per game (up slightly from 2011's 15.5), averaging at least 1 goal per game (target of 25 goals per season), without sacrificing the defensive/tackling aspects of his game.What do you actually expect out of Petrenko?*
*Answer what you think he should be hitting at this point in his career, don't be facetious answer it properly.
Even if we accept that Callinan & Porps spent considerable time up the ground (which I'm happy to agree with), why doesn't Petrenko do the same?
Bring It.
I liked the bit where Vader says he was being sarcastic.
"Should Jaensch or Brodie Martin be taking his spot?" is a more pertinent question than "is Petrenko s*** or not?".
How else do you explain the fact that he's always 2nd to the ball - hence high tackling stats & low disposals? How else do you explain the fact that half of his disposals came in the last quarter, when all of the hard working players were completely out on their feet (and only those who were too lazy to work earlier had energy left)?
Maybe it is a wrong call.. but it's the call I'm making on the evidence I see before me.
I think you're making some big assumptions on how Sando has instructed him to play Vader.
You've ignored all attempts to engage you on the Max Rooke use comparisons - but I strongly suggest you consider them when viewing his 'output'.
He may not be hunting the ball as much as he may have very specific instructions to play as a defensive forward.
Given Rooke's output in his best 2 years where he was picked pretty much every game he was fit for, and played an important role a dominant side of the competition, I think its more realistic to expect the following of Jared.
12 to 15 touches a game
0.5 to 1 goal a game - (in his role I actually prefer goals contributed and happy with a target of 2 to 3 per game. FYI he's on 3pg at the moment for this year)
3 to 4 marks a game
4 to 5 tackles a game
Alot of impact, intensity and defensive pressure
So statistically less than you're expecting. He does the above and plays as a defensive forward and I'd suggest he's done the role that I believe is expected of him by Sando.
Btw - from the above measures, he's currently on target.
A high tackle count can be seen as a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it does indicate a high work rate (as you have suggested). On the other hand, it could equally be interpreted as meaning that the player is consistently 2nd to the ball (as I have suggested).
I think that the tackle to disposal ratio would be a fair metric here. Petrenko's is probably the highest in our team - lots of tackles, very few disposals. That indicates to me that he's 2nd to the ball. If he had a more normal ratio, with the same number of tackles but a higher number of disposals, then I'd be inclined to go with the high work rate theory.
As it is, I see a high tackle count - indicating that he's involved in a reasonable number of contests. I also see a low disposal count, indicating that he's not winning many of those contests (though a high percentage of his possessions are contested). Putting two & two together, I call 2nd to the ball on a consistent basis.
Clearly not this role as far as the match committee/coaching staff see it. Somewhat irrelevant.Even if we accept that Callinan & Porps spent considerable time up the ground (which I'm happy to agree with), why doesn't Petrenko do the same?
He did take a number of marks in this role the week previous NAB Cup GF (one of the 2 games you're basing this argument on)... he failed to convert though. I would also consider the highest tackle-count in the Adelaide forward line over the past 2 matches as an example of hunting his own ball.I'd also like to point out that Petrenko can't afford to be just looking for the crumbs left by Tippett & Walker. If he's not pro-active, hunting his own ball, then he's not doing his job properly. Callinan is/was selected specifically for his crumbing abilities. Callinan had 8 shots on goal, to Petrenko's 1. Not all of Callinan's shots came from Tippett/Walker contests, he actively hunted the footy. Why doesn't Petrenko do the same?
5 scoring shots and 3 Goal Assists in two games. If he can continue to generate 4 scoring opportunities for the team per game in his poor games I would say he is doing his job.Petrenko is probably more than serviceable as a defensive small forward, whose role is to take out one of the opposition's attacking defenders. However, he can't get by on being purely defensive. Rob Shirley tried and his career was arguably cut short by 1-2 years as a result. Petrenko needs to add an offensive side to his game, without neglecting the defensive aspects which many people (including the selectors) clearly value so highly.
All AFL footballers should have DE figures above 80%, unless they are in & under midfielders who spend a lot of time buried under the bottom of packs at ruck contests. Anything below 70% is poor. Anything below 60% is diabolical.
Only 3 of Petrenko's last 6 games have resulted in DE's in the acceptable range (noting one outstanding performance where he didn't miss a target all day).
OK, maybe I was being a little sarcastic saying that he was "astounding" when he hit 80%.. but only a little, given his low standards compared to most other players in the team.
Given the role he plays, I think he should be averaging around 17-18 disposals per game (up slightly from 2011's 15.5), averaging at least 1 goal per game (target of 25 goals per season), without sacrificing the defensive/tackling aspects of his game.
Do you think that these expectations are unreasonable for a player of his age, size & experience?
I liked the bit where Vader says he was being sarcastic.
This has already been countered by the small forward argument - comparing his possessions/tackles/goal creation against other close to goal small forwards including Betts and Garlett (see below for more detail). If modern football was a 1 on 1 game I could see the line you are trying to draw with being second to the ball. But it isn't so your point appears a very long bow to draw.
Clearly not this role as far as the match committee/coaching staff see it. Somewhat irrelevant.
He did take a number of marks in this role the week previous NAB Cup GF (one of the 2 games you're basing this argument on)... he failed to convert though. I would also consider the highest tackle-count in the Adelaide forward line over the past 2 matches as an example of hunting his own ball.
5 scoring shots and 3 Goal Assists in two games. If he can continue to generate 4 scoring opportunities for the team per game in his poor games I would say he is doing his job.
80% is too high for an AFL DE% benchmark - it is more an indicator of elite DE% output. Only 9 Crows managed this standard last year. Porps' 100% from 1 disposal should be stripped from the list. Three others are no longer at the club (Davis/Armstrong/Sellar ). That leaves 5 current players who made the grade in 2011 from a decent disposal sample size.
70% DE would be considered a pass mark for a regular AFL player.
But let's compare apples with apples. This number is lower for small forwards. Consider the list of class act small forwards in top teams below and then set the expectation for Petrenko accordingly...
(Small Forwards from top teams DE% in 2011)
Betts : 71%
Rioli: 71%
LeCras: 66%
S Johnson: 67% (For/Mid)
Krakouer: 65%
Fyfe: 61% (For/Mid)
Milne: 61%
Garlett: 59%
Pets had a 71% DE last season
Pets' DE% was in the acceptable range last year and in his new forward role this year his output is still in the acceptable range. Based on the pre-season stats you provided yesterday his NAB Cup DE% was 66%, in R1 it was 69%. When compared to the best of the best in that type of position, he sits middle to upper range.
When you are dealing with lower possession counts numbers are more likely to vary more dramatically. The average tells the story.
Yes.
Again - same set of players as before - this time average disposals per match in 2011:
Fyfe: 25.1 (For/Mid)
S Johnson: 22.3 (For/Mid)
LeCras: 16.3
Rioli: 16.2
Krakouer: 15.3
Milne: 13.4
Betts: 12.4
Garlett: 12.3
I have left the top two in there - even as though their figures are not relevant for pure small forwards given the amount of time they spent in the midfield. But from LeCras to Garlett we are looking at the top small forwards at the top clubs last year and none of them managed 17-18 disposals per game. Pets is younger and less experienced than the lot of them. I think you have set unrealistic expectations for him given the position he is playing and where he is in his development.
I would love to see 25 goals from Pets though.
OK.. let's disregard my previous call about him being lazy. I agree that this is a very un-Petrenko characteristic.
Right now I'm wondering if it's fairer to say that he has become too defensive minded, to the detriment of his offensive performance? Is this a fair description of where he's at?
Looking at his performances in the MMC and R1, his offensive output (disposals) is down by roughly 30% on what he was achieving last year. I didn't rate him particularly highly last year, but that's neither here nor there. At least it gives us a decent benchmark for purposes of comparison.
I believe looking at his performance this way is not out of line with the Rooke comparisons.. is it?
BTW.. please stop trying to compare him to the likes of Betts, Garlett & LeCras. Petrenko isn't fit to stand in their shadows right now and I sincerely doubt that he ever will be. These guys score goals week in week out. Petrenko does not.
Even if we accept that he's been given a fairly defensive role, which I think is probably a given, I still expect him to make more of a contribution offensively. My comparisons with Rob Shirley & warnings about his fate remain entirely valid.
I'm still yet to hear a good excuse for why so many of his disposals came in the final quarter and so few when the heat was on in the kitchen. I don't buy the "still gives it all when he's exhausted" line. That might explain why he continued to get disposals in the last quarter, it doesn't even come close to excusing his lack of them in the first half of the game.