Snuffaluphagus
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Yeah and I mean, I see basically absolutely no chance JL is sacked this year. Would require bottom 4 and a shit start to next year
Coach Justin Longmuir
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Hmmm maybe. What if we win 5 games for the year? It should be a 9 win threshold given our age but let's say it was 5-6, would he be moved on?
Snuffaluphagus
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Nope, not after winning a final last year. Anyone dreaming of a JL sacking will need to wait
I am not dreaming of it - it would mean a shocking year.
I am trying to think about the win/loss that got Lyon sacked and thinking we are four seasons on. I do not need linear improvement year on year. But anything less than nine wins is a massive regression.
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I'm not as certain about that. We're 14th on the ladder and playing like it. I'd say it's only about 70:30 chance of survival to 2024 if we're still there at the end of the year. Still more likely than not he survives, but not almost certain
Snuffaluphagus
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Haha yeah but there are definitely those dreaming of it. Winning a final last year will absolutely give him close to immunity this year. It would require a massive personal falling out between JL and Bell for him to be fired IMO - and then we'd have even bigger problems then a coach who appears behind the times gameplay wise.
Yes sadly, there were those dreaming of sacking Lyon also. I am not a fan of immunity even with a big drop this season. It did happen with Melbourne which is part of why I said it wouldn't be out of the realms of possibility this season.
Part of my concern is the language from Bell, Garlick and the board was all about going further this season than last season, it wasn't about a build or continued development. Anyway, I am not sure we win this week and also think it is our best shot in the next three. This place will be amazing...
Plenty of coaches have been caught out to varying degrees seemingly not reading the direction of the game right. There's frequently more than just a bob when they should've weaved, but one of the qualities sought out in a coach is a vision, that they're driven by their own take and not just shallowly following trends. Hardwick, Buckley and Chris Scott are coaches who have adjusted significantly (even Longmire last year). Experienced coaches though.
Successful seasons can be the precursor to change reticence. Often you don't want to mess with success too much. Problem being any significant changes can be really hard to implement mid-season, so it's a hard turn around for a big ship.
I wouldn't write off the season just yet though. It's hard to read the gameplan fully at this stage, given how off so many players are and how many fumbles, missed targets and missed timings derail any sort of fluid plays. It can click pretty quickly, sometimes within the course of a game.
Successful seasons can be the precursor to change reticence. Often you don't want to mess with success too much. Problem being any significant changes can be really hard to implement mid-season, so it's a hard turn around for a big ship.
I wouldn't write off the season just yet though. It's hard to read the gameplan fully at this stage, given how off so many players are and how many fumbles, missed targets and missed timings derail any sort of fluid plays. It can click pretty quickly, sometimes within the course of a game.
Given the amount of turnover between seasons, it'd be silly to think there wouldn't be some chance of turbulence being factored into the results.
If we had injuries I would say no. We basically have a full list. Any less than finals is a fail
I agree, but that isn't what was communicated through preseason. The confidence was sky high, now it looks like hubris.
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Yeah pretty much this. Either they have their internal doubts and just bullshit to fans for fun, or they have totally misread where they're at. Not sure which of these is worst TBH.
Would you communicate that though if you're the footy club?
It is a massive concern. When done in business, leadership changes at some level. As a footy club they have either way oversold and under delivered on purpose or were way out on their prediction of the current season.
They have done this in previous seasons. They could have said lots that was still encouraging but that showed some restraint.
We are looking forward to continued growth this year from one of the youngest paying groups in the league. We know there will be ups and downs, but we and our fans can't wait to see the team build together for long term success.
We got 'we expect to go further this year than last' or something similar.
The management chose to let Acres and Logue go. on top of that we lost Lobb and Mundy. That is a large chunk of the team and of the more experienced players. As much as they weren't the best players we could have looked at it and reasonably thought this would be a different year to last.
How is it that I was expecting a tough year with us finishing as low as 12th based on the changes but the club was pushing for a top five finish?
royale with cheese
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The albatross around his neck is the Jackson trade. The Connolly and Lyon sackings were in part related to the big Tarrant and Hogan trades not resulting in finals appearances.
BeinPurplenGreen
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Tarrant only played for Freo from 2007-2010, he was long gone before Rossco arrived as coach.
The Hogan trade hurt Lyon, as did keeping Yarran on the list, as did the loyalty to Bennell and the aftermath of the Neale trade.
I have no animosity to Lyon, he's our best ever coach by a long shot, but he'd run his race and things were stale.
The way a Colin Young influenced Bell manipulated Lyon's last few weeks and then his sacking, and the torching of Rosich was disgusting.
The time for change was right, but the manner and underhandness of the dragged out public undermining and eventual sacking was classless.
It has set us up as a club that plays games with staff, is driven by media headlines and isn't really trusted because it often engages in mixed messaging.
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Really? Can't remember it (not that I pay too much attention to it).
Their preseason looked highly promising (albeit didn't see the level of focus on quick ball movement I thought might be useful). Certainly there was wide scope of where they might finish on the ladder. I guess they'd argue they're in the business of selling memberships and likely shoot for the stars/hit the moon philosophy might've informed their messaging, especially after the near miss on top 4 last year. Not too late to click into gear still .
It's more than just about the W/L column, we could still miss finals and be moving the way forward with the right man for the job missing finals or we could still somehow make the 8 and he could still be a poor head coach. The people in charge obviously need to make a thorough assessment at some stage to decide.
I mean take Harvey, iirc internally they were coming to the realisation he was a dud in 2010 and looking at other options like Lyon but him winning a final kind of forced them to have him stay on.
Connolly wasn't technically sacked. He walked after we nosedived from top four to clearly missing the finals.
All of Connolly, Harvey and Lyon went in seasons where the list underperformed. We should've made finals all of 2007, 2011 and 2019. You give the new coach 2-3 years then if the list seriously underperforms then you think about what the future looks like without them.
It was very, very poor to not make finals in 04 and 05 and it then meant we went into 06 although at our peak still being an inexperienced September side. I almost think of Connolly as our worst coach given the list at his disposal he wasted.
inclined to think it’s the latter - some off season list management choices throwing up red flags that they have misread where the list was at. letting Acres go thinking we had him covered. Giving Melbourne our 1st round pick for this year. all the pronouncements saying we expected to do better than last year.
in hindsight, all of the above looks like a massive YIKES.
Really? Can't remember it (not that I pay too much attention to it).
Their preseason looked highly promising (albeit didn't see the level of focus on quick ball movement I thought might be useful). Certainly there was wide scope of where they might finish on the ladder. I guess they'd argue they're in the business of selling memberships and likely shoot for the stars/hit the moon philosophy might've informed their messaging, especially after the near miss on top 4 last year. Not too late to click into gear still .
Yeah - messaging is a lot of what I do and they have definitely projected more confidence this season than any in a long time. But yes, hopefully we can still come good. I think we will do well to win nine from here. That would be a fail on the season.
I agree with this in part. Having said that, at the end of the day, it is all about W/L, so it should be a large factor and only increase depending on where the squad is perceived to be.
Agree - that 06 team should have entered the season on the back of three consecutive finals appearances. We wasted an immensely talented side.
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