Review Knightmare's 2010-2013 top 40

[Masto]

Jaeger O'Meara should easily be #1 and its not even close.

 

[Knightmare]

Jaeger O'Meara should easily be #1 and its not even close.

Jeremy Cameron would have something to say about that. Demands the best defender every week as a second year key forward and in the mix for the Coleman despite having the worst delivery of all forwards in the competition.

Key forwards generally don't produce until year 3-4 so young Cameron is an absolute freak and will be in a different category to any of the recent key forwards we've seen - Brown/Riewoldt/Pavlich/Franklin/Cloke. He's the best we've had since Wayne Carey.

O'Meara is special in my view better than Judd and Selwood having that extra polish. But quality midfielders can be had easier. Give me Naitanui/Cameron/Daniher anyday to start a team with.

 

[Offsider]

What are you rating them on? Junior form, or a combination of that and senior form?

 

[Knightmare]

What are you rating them on? Junior form, or a combination of that and senior form?

It's largely who will have the best AFL careers.

Those who are on AFL lists I'm rating on what they're doing now and how good I think they can become while those who are draft age this year I have no choice other than to speculate what they have the opportunity to become.

I don't view these rankings as an exact science but rather something which may help give people a feel for what some of these players have the opportunity to achieve over their careers and who have the opportunity to become household names in the future.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

I just don't see it with Daniher, much like I didn't with Hurley.

He has great potential yes and talls often take longer to develop, however I just don't see him as an absolutely sure thing to be a superstar.

O'Meara I rate higher than Cameron, but both are justifiably rated in the top 3. Nicholls seems like a bit of a leap at 4. Maybe Knightmare has jumped the gun. He looks good no doubt, however he will eventually play second fiddle to Smith since Nicholls lacks the ability to compete strongly in the ruck. This may mean less opportunities to impact the contest post ruck battle, which is one of his strongest attributes. If and when GC other talls return, competition for spots and less responsibility could likely slow his development or at least provide him with less opportunities.

The dime a dozen "great" midfielder line is not only a cliche, but flat wrong. The absolutely elite midfielders are nearly as rare as any other absolutely elite player (the exception maybe being ruckmen), hence their position at the top of the midfield tree.

We have had one Ablett, one Scarlett, one Cox and one Franklin, just as we have had one Judd, one Fletcher, one Sandilands and one Reiwoldt. There may be more midfielders and flankers, but that just means that the rare few who can distinguish themselves are even more valuable. More than any other position it is the freakish elite midfielder that has the greater number of opportunities to win and impact games by virtue of their role.

O'Meara is the most talented young mid I have seen since Judd, that kind of ability in the middle is what not only wins you games but can win you flags.

 

[Chris25]

Always an interesting exercise, and clearly a very personal one because there is next to nothing I agree with.

 

[Can Opener]

is that Nathan freeman from Sandringham dragons??

 

[Danair]

Wow, Luke Parker not even top 40!

 

[Tulip]

I don't subscribe to the theory that Cameron has the worst delivery in the competition. The least delivery, sure, but the players drilling it to him are very talented young footballers who just can't win enough ball. When they get a break on, they're really not too bad.

 

[Knightmare]

I just don't see it with Daniher, much like I didn't with Hurley.

He has great potential yes and talls often take longer to develop, however I just don't see him as an absolutely sure thing to be a superstar.

O'Meara I rate higher than Cameron, but both are justifiably rated in the top 3. Nicholls seems like a bit of a leap at 4. Maybe Knightmare has jumped the gun. He looks good no doubt, however he will eventually play second fiddle to Smith since Nicholls lacks the ability to compete strongly in the ruck. This may mean less opportunities to impact the contest post ruck battle, which is one of his strongest attributes. If and when GC other talls return, competition for spots and less responsibility could likely slow his development or at least provide him with less opportunities.

The dime a dozen "great" midfielder line is not only a cliche, but flat wrong. The absolutely elite midfielders are nearly as rare as any other absolutely elite player (the exception maybe being ruckmen), hence their position at the top of the midfield tree.

We have had one Ablett, one Scarlett, one Cox and one Franklin, just as we have had one Judd, one Fletcher, one Sandilands and one Reiwoldt. There may be more midfielders and flankers, but that just means that the rare few who can distinguish themselves are even more valuable. More than any other position it is the freakish elite midfielder that has the greater number of opportunities to win and impact games by virtue of their role.

O'Meara is the most talented young mid I have seen since Judd, that kind of ability in the middle is what not only wins you games but can win you flags.

Daniher is a guy with great potential but I think all things said and done he fulfils it with his contested marking ability and ability at ground level. He's 203cm and already playing some strong footy in the VFL and shown signs in the 1s. That's rare for a first year player at that size and showing that he can take 5 contested marks in a half of footy at AFL level, that's big. When he gets into seasons 4 and 5 this guy will be near unstoppable the way I see his game so it will be interesting to see just how dominant he can become but at this stage injuries permitting I'm seeing something special in this guy with rare ability at his size.

On Nicholls I may well have jumped the gun but I like to provoke thought and discussion. Who right now would say Nicholls should even be on the list right now outside of Gold Coast? He probably doesn't become the 4th best but I'm really liking his game at the moment and I think his ceiling is as high as just about anyone so I wouldn't write him off from becoming one of the very best from this group. Few ruckmen perform this well this early and with that ability to get the taps to advantage, tackle and win his own footy he's looking like he can become as good as he wants to be.

I agree with your analysis of O'Meara being the best immediate midfielder since Judd and even better than Judd with Ablett that only current day midfielder I see as a better talent.

Where our views differ is in the value of the bigs. I feel Cameron and Daniher are better than any other key forwards we've seen for the past 10-15 years.

is that Nathan freeman from Sandringham dragons??

Yes indeed.

Wow, Luke Parker not even top 40!

He's one of the best performed from his draft year but until we see how good those from recent drafts are not too much can be said for certain at this point.

 

[Knightmare]

I don't subscribe to the theory that Cameron has the worst delivery in the competition. The least delivery, sure, but the players drilling it to him are very talented young footballers who just can't win enough ball. When they get a break on, they're really not too bad.

There are some good users in there but the supply isn't great. GWS lack a strong bodied midfielder to really dominate those clearances so it's still not great supply.

5 years from now when GWS have a complete midfield and really give Cameron not only the quality but quantity of supply. That's going to be fun to watch and you can't help but think numerous Coleman's will be his.

 

[Masto]

There are some good users in there but the supply isn't great. GWS lack a strong bodied midfielder to really dominate those clearances so it's still not great supply.

5 years from now when GWS have a complete midfield and really give Cameron not only the quality but quantity of supply. That's going to be fun to watch and you can't help but think numerous Coleman's will be his.

Cameron is a big body but I don't see him as an elite 100 goal FF you make him out to be. Teams are not even fully gameplanning against GWS because they know they can just rock up and thrash them with their own game. Because of this he is left 1 vs 1 most of the time as their main target. Once GWS become good, teams will give Cameron a lot more attention, they will put a lot more attention into crowding his space and cutting off his leads. Then we will see how good he is. But to be as good as Buddy, Fevola etc he will need to kick 100 in a season and I think you're over-reaching.

 

[fronkalicious]

Nice topic km. excited to see you have stringer and macrae so high. But I do think Libba continues to fly under the radar in afl circles. He's the best clearance player in the league in his 3rd season. And he's not just a contested ball winner. Has outstanding hands and vision and delivers by foot very well. Has an excellent defensive game also. I can see him winning a brownlow like his old man.

Quick question. What do you think is the best structure/balance for the dogs forward line and who do you think they could realistically add to finish it off?

Smalls - hunter and dal
Mediums - stringer, grant??
Talls - jones, ??

 

[manny100]

Mathew Scarlett on 'Open Mike' early this year said that Gary Ablett Jnr was not in the best 5 players he had played with or played against. When asked why by a stunned Mike he simply said mids were easy to replace compared to KPP's so he did not rate mids that highly.
When we look at phantom drafts already up on the board (from any year) they are loaded with small/mediums and not so many KPPs probably because they are relatively hard to come by.
That is why it will take the absolute 'super' deal to pry Boyd from GWS - and GWS know this and are having fun teasing the other clubs with 'trade dares'.

 

[Knightmare]

Cameron is a big body but I don't see him as an elite 100 goal FF you make him out to be. Teams are not even fully gameplanning against GWS because they know they can just rock up and thrash them with their own game. Because of this he is left 1 vs 1 most of the time as their main target. Once GWS become good, teams will give Cameron a lot more attention, they will put a lot more attention into crowding his space and cutting off his leads. Then we will see how good he is. But to be as good as Buddy, Fevola etc he will need to kick 100 in a season and I think you're over-reaching.

I think Cameron will stack up with those.

His numbers stack up favourably against any recent key forwards - J.Brown, Pavlich, N.Riewoldt, Franklin, Cloke, J.Riewoldt, J.Kennedy. You name it, he has them beat. Assuming Cameron continues his development which I don't doubt you can only assume he pushes ahead of these.

If any player is to have a 100 goal season Cameron is the guy most likely. It's so hard to do in the modern game because of the improved defensive mechanisms and with substantially better key defenders than we've ever had before in our game. I see Cameron as largely an 80 goal per season player but I'm expecting some 100 goal seasons in there which in todays game is special, much more so than previous eras.

Nice topic km. excited to see you have stringer and macrae so high. But I do think Libba continues to fly under the radar in afl circles. He's the best clearance player in the league in his 3rd season. And he's not just a contested ball winner. Has outstanding hands and vision and delivers by foot very well. Has an excellent defensive game also. I can see him winning a brownlow like his old man.

Quick question. What do you think is the best structure/balance for the dogs forward line and who do you think they could realistically add to finish it off?

Smalls - hunter and dal
Mediums - stringer, grant??
Talls - jones, ??

Liber on immediate impact and achievement this season has been excellent and is having a near All Australian season and is performing like that no.2 player already on the list behind Griffen who has been in near Brownlow Medal form. I just tend to favour Macrae and Stringer slightly with their upside still relatively untapped and incredibly high ceilings.They're all guys you can win with and want on your team though.

I see only Stringer, Dahlhaus, Hunter in that future forwardline for the Dogs with Dickson a possible and Higgins if he can stay healthy. An elite strong bodied, tall key forward and one or two other players are needed in addition to that core group.

Mathew Scarlett on 'Open Mike' early this year said that Gary Ablett Jnr was not in the best 5 players he had played with or played against. When asked why by a stunned Mike he simply said mids were easy to replace compared to KPP's so he did not rate mids that highly.
When we look at phantom drafts already up on the board (from any year) they are loaded with small/mediums and not so many KPPs probably because they are relatively hard to come by.
That is why it will take the absolute 'super' deal to pry Boyd from GWS - and GWS know this and are having fun teasing the other clubs with 'trade dares'.

I agree with Scarlett on the value of bigs. When you can get a quality one you jump at that opportunity because it's so difficult to fill those positions with high level options.
Those key position posts are all about quality over quantity.

But I wouldn't count them Ablett JR out of the top 5 all time discussion because of it.

This year for key defenders anyway it's a shallow group and for ruckmen without a top end option but for key forwards there are options.

 

[fronkalicious]

Don't think jones can be an effective 2nd/3rd tall next to the right big? Has improved this year and played great footy next to hall when he was there.

Surprised you like Dickson. I can't stand him. Slow, small, and poor on the ground. Bad combination.

 

[manny100]

KM, it appears Toumpas has fallen off the back of the truck. Hopefully not another draft mess up by the Dees.

 

[Knightmare]

Don't think jones can be an effective 2nd/3rd tall next to the right big? Has improved this year and played great footy next to hall when he was there.

Surprised you like Dickson. I can't stand him. Slow, small, and poor on the ground. Bad combination.

Dickson is a guy I could live with as a role player short term but I'd also look for better as he's more a depth guy.

Jones has shown glimpses but he hasn't shown enough progress and is a depth guy for me. He's a good VFL forward but not at AFL level and even as a third tall I wouldn't bet on him being a particularly significant factor with Grant worse again as someone who has frankly gone backwards with every year and failed to even develop his body which isn't good enough.

KM, it appears Toumpas has fallen off the back of the truck. Hopefully not another draft mess up by the Dees.

It's more a development mess for Melbourne more than anything else. The guys Melbourne have been selecting have been largely consensus guys at those early selections outside of Lucas Cook and Jordan Gysberts, so Melbourne's issues go deeper than drafting.

Toumpas can develop. He has more than enough tools but whether he fully reaches his potential for Melbourne is the query and it's becoming a query with his performances not nearly up to the standard of his peers - when he should be in that ballpark.

 

[fronkalicious]

Have to disagree on jones. He's an elite level contested mark (stats bear that out), has good acceleration and his goal kicking has improved enormously. He gets the best defender each week and the delivery he receives is vfl level at best. And he's 22 years of age and a hard trainer who works on his deficiencies (tank and goal-kicking).

I think he'd be a beast in a team like yours where he'd get that 2nd or 3rd defender and the increased delivery (both quantity and quality) would make him very dangerous indeed.

Dickson on the other hand can head back to noble park.....

 

[cammo78]

Dickson is a guy I could live with as a role player short term but I'd also look for better as he's more a depth guy.

Jones has shown glimpses but he hasn't shown enough progress and is a depth guy for me. He's a good VFL forward but not at AFL level and even as a third tall I wouldn't bet on him being a particularly significant factor with Grant worse again as someone who has frankly gone backwards with every year and failed to even develop his body which isn't good enough.



It's more a development mess for Melbourne more than anything else. The guys Melbourne have been selecting have been largely consensus guys at those early selections outside of Lucas Cook and Jordan Gysberts, so Melbourne's issues go deeper than drafting.

Toumpas can develop. He has more than enough tools but whether he fully reaches his potential for Melbourne is the query and it's becoming a query with his performances not nearly up to the standard of his peers - when he should be in that ballpark.

Is there a chance Toumpas could be another Tambling type?

Smashes junior footy, touted as a certain top few pick, just not up to the level?

Early days, I realise.

 

[Knightmare]

Is there a chance Toumpas could be another Tambling type?

Smashes junior footy, touted as a certain top few pick, just not up to the level?

Early days, I realise.

Toumpas has more class to him but I wouldn't compare them all that closely.

Tambling came into the game and played pretty well early on but then just stagnated and couldn't take his game anywhere.

Toumpas is starting out much slower but still has a chance to make something of himself long term.

 

[00Stinger]

Mathew Scarlett on 'Open Mike' early this year said that Gary Ablett Jnr was not in the best 5 players he had played with or played against. When asked why by a stunned Mike he simply said mids were easy to replace compared to KPP's so he did not rate mids that highly.
When we look at phantom drafts already up on the board (from any year) they are loaded with small/mediums and not so many KPPs probably because they are relatively hard to come by.
That is why it will take the absolute 'super' deal to pry Boyd from GWS - and GWS know this and are having fun teasing the other clubs with 'trade dares'.

Yet name me a team that has won the GF in the last 10 years without a gun midfielder.

 

[TheAnt]

Brandon Ellis has had an incredible year.

 

[Zach Package]

I just don't see it with Daniher, much like I didn't with Hurley.

Just out of curiousity, how did you 'not see it' with Hurley at this stage.

At this stage in his first year he was already a U18 AA FB, twice and was about to single handedly finish off Hawthorn's premiership defence.

Sure, since then it's had it's hiccups along the way, but at this stage in their respective careers, neither Hurley or Daniher had done anything to suggest they wouldn't be legitimate superstars

 

[Knightmare]

Brandon Ellis has had an incredible year.

Ellis has had a very impressive season.

I'm interested to see how he continues to progress over future seasons.

I typically favour the influence of inside types over outside types which is why Ellis and Gaff among other well performed players do no feature on this list but Ellis is exceptionally close and well in that top 60 from 2010-2013, no question for me and I wouldn't be at all shocked sooner rather than later if he was a consensus choice for this list.
Just as with Gaff while a different player I'd like to see a few more seasons first.