Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[RussellEbertHandball]

#14 Port Adelaide – Lewis Taylor (VIC – Mid/Fwd)
Height: 173cm, Weight: 73kg, DOB: 17/02/1995
Recruited from: Geelong Falcons
Style: Brent Harvey
Player comparison:
Range: 5-15
Profile: Taylor is a small midfielder with crazy explosive pace and the ability to break away from contests, break the lines and use his agility to sidestep around opponents effortlessly. He can win his own footy as well as find plenty of it outside the contest and in the u18s is a big time accumulator. Excellent user of the footy on both sides and has the ability to do damage both through the midfield and up forward with his footskills finding targets but also finishing around goal. Just a shame he isn’t 10cm taller. The only issue I have with Taylor’s height is in his tackling game, he doesn’t provide enough tackling pressure and when he does he’s not strong enough to make those tackles stick.

Port will not use pick 14, if we don't trade it away for pick 18 or 19 as part of a 3 way trade with the Saints and Longer and Brisbane for Polec, on a kid that is 173cm.

Love your work Knightmare but it wont happen.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Port will pick these guys before they pick Taylor. Of that list, Dunstan would be the highest ranked.

#15 Sydney – Darcy Gardiner (VIC – KPD)
Height: 192cm, Weight: 84kg, DOB: 22/09/1995

#16 Geelong – Blake Acres (WA – Mid/Util)Height: 188cm, Weight: 84kg, DOB: 07/10/1995
Recruited from: West Perth

#18 St Kilda (via Hawthorn) - Luke Dunstan (SA –Mid/Fwd)
Height: 185cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 29/01/1995

#23 Adelaide (compensation) - Trent Dumont (SA – Mid/Def)
Height: 185cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 30/06/1995

#25 St Kilda (compensation) - Jonathon Marsh (WA – KPF/Util)
Height: 191cm, Weight: 89kg, DOB: 17/10/1995

#27 Gold Coast – Luke Reynolds (SA – Fwd)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 86kg, DOB: 09/01/1995

#33 Carlton - Darcy Hourigan (SA – KPF/KPD)
Height: 190cm, Weight: 92kg, DOB: 18/09/1995

 

[jackess]

Love your work Knightmare, would be rapt with Scharenberg. Please make it happen.

 

[BigBadBrisbaneBears]

Agreed - would love it if Scharenberg slippled through to 7.
Also, agree - great work Kinghtmare.

As an aside (not that 4th round matters too much) but the lions have committed to Johnathon Freeman at #63

 

[clipboardbinocs]

Can't hold a position KM.

Bit of a yes man.

 

[Kenno27]

GC wouldn't pass on Sharenberg.

They have identified the HB position as one of their biggest needs.

If Shaw goes to GWS then Coll will pull the trigger at 6.

 

[Knightmare]

There's a suggestion on our board (the source being someone who was on the money about the McEvoy trade the night before it was announced and who also told us Longer wanted to come to us before anyone else) that there could be a big go-home factor with Aish, which we, for one, are apparently very wary of.

Thanks for that. So Billings had a really good year in his underage year? I know he kicked 6 goals in one of the champs games (was that against a div 1, or div 2 team?), but haven't heard much about what else he did for that year at APS, TAC Cup, or champs levels.

Unrelated, but what also perhaps hasn't been mentioned much, if at all, is that Aish, like Bontempelli, has a November birthday, so he played those two years of senior footy at SANFL level at 16 and 17yo, which is pretty remearkable. It gets mentioned a lot that Bontempelli has the late birthday and as such could still have a lot of development in him, but it never seems to get mentioned for Aish?

Billings did have a strong underage year. TAC Cup and APS footy he really dominated. Even this year when playing he's been excellent but I wouldn't say he's been able to perform to his best with the injuries he's been carrying and playing through.

With Aish while he's a light body in a footballing sense he's already very much developed. With that lighter, smaller body while it's clear that he'll become very good at AFL level he seems more limited than some of the taller types and perhaps won't become the contested ball winner of some of the taller mids.

Bontempelli on the other hand has really shot up these past seasons and seems to be taller every time he's measured so once his football catches up with he's body that will be fun to watch. The taller types typically develop later and as such it's a calculated risk to suggest that they have further upside in their game. But it's a risk some clubs are including in their calculations and looking at his pedigree and looking at his work ethic I don't blame them.

Would Gold coast be reaching at Kade for 5 KM? I know Scotty loves his Tassies but its hard to see Aish sliding past us?

Kolodjashnij at 5 is earlier than I'd pick him but he's not necessarily a bad choice that early either as one of the relatively more likely to make the grade in this group. He's a guy who has proven performance behind him and tested well so I expect more than a couple of clubs rate him that highly.

Knightmare, I've been following your phantom draft pretty closely and had a few questions on Freeman I would like to ask. You originally had him at abouts 4-5 in your power rankings, right? Why the dip all of a sudden? I would have thought his showing at the combine would have enhanced his credentials.

And secondly, what do you remember of Tyson in his draft year? Good deal for the Dees?

Freeman is an interesting case but I have cooled on him. He's damaging as anything when he has ball in hand but he doesn't find it as much as I'd like.
If anything his testing despite how good it was (no one doubted that) it's surprising given his what I'd class better than expected endurance that he can't find more of the footy.
He's someone who just doesn't feel dominant enough with his inside ball winning but then doesn't find much of it on the outside.

It's such an even top 20 that they could go in any order but someone has to be no.1 and someone else needs to be no.20.

Hey Knightmare,

Have you seen anything of Brian Fenton from North Adelaide? Came back for the last few games of the year after a knee reco. Plays as a midfield tagger that can find his own ball as well. A couple of people have dissed his disposal, but it's nowhere near that bad.. do you see him going as a late pick for someone looking for an effective tagger? Absolutely blanketed each of his opponents in the SANFL finals. Is only 21-22. If I had to compare him to anyone it would be Ryan Crowley, real serial pest type.

Thoughts?

I watched the SANFL finals series and got footage of all the games I could find. Fenton is not one I've noticed though (probably being a tagger because he wasn't winning all the ball himself). I'll go back and take a look and see what more I can find on him but I'm not familiar enough with his game to comment.

Few questions/comments on some of the profiles for the South Australians...

How does James Battersby compare in style to Lindsay Gilbee? Yes, Battersby is a smart user of the ball and he showed some good rebound in the U18 Championships. But for me, he is first and foremost a midfielder. A strong, clearance winning midfielder at that. I don't recall Gilbee ever doing that. And as a defender, if anything, he compares more to a Steve Morris (although slightly more polished) as he has the same hard at it nature and attacks to defend. Also, has better agility and elusiveness in the midfield than old Lindsay. Apart from being a good kick, I don't see any Gilbee in him.

I think I've questioned the odd Luke Reynolds/Trent McKenzie comparison before, so I wont touch that again. But, do you really think he is 'above average athletically for someone his height'? I would suggest the opposite is more likely. James Sicily is above average, Reynolds doesn't come close. Could say the same for Mitch Harvey, where you've highlighted his speed and agility.

And as for Orazio Fantasia, I don't agree with the Milne comparison. But more importantly, you said "as good as his work is with ball in hand just don’t expect him to get big numbers because that’s not his game". Have you seen Fantasia before? Because that actually is his game. As a forward in the U18 Championships, he averaged over 15 touches a game. While playing as a midfielder at Reserves level in the SANFL he was consistently winning 25+ touches, and in just his third league match he finished with 24 disposals. Some pretty big numbers so far in his career.

You're making Battersby sound like a big hulking guy. He's 177cm. He's played exceptionally well and isn't a soft outsidish type of a Gilbee in that sense but he's mostly appealed as a precise kicking type in that same way Gilbee has. As a smaller mid/def I can't imagine he playing in the midfield for a team but in a back half. Sure. But it depends on how you project his game developing.

Mitch Harvey I've found to be an excellent mover. He's a big guy but he moves around with agility and doesn't seem as limited in his movement as others at that same height.

I saw Fantastia's SANFL grand final where he only had the four disposals. Small forwards like Fantastia while they can find the footy at lower levels aren't going to find 20+ disposals at the next level. And at that height he's not going to be a midfielder at the next level.

Doesn't want to leave SA.

Perhaps the first time the history of man that someone has held that view.

You'd think so but Paul Marschall last year was the same story.

 

[Brenton Davy]

I watched the SANFL finals series and got footage of all the games I could find. Fenton is not one I've noticed though (probably being a tagger because he wasn't winning all the ball himself). I'll go back and take a look and see what more I can find on him but I'm not familiar enough with his game to comment.

He is no. 20 for North Adelaide.

INcidentally, I have to admire your persistence and research in this thread. Good read.

 

[Chris25]

You're making Battersby sound like a big hulking guy. He's 177cm. He's played exceptionally well and isn't a soft outsidish type of a Gilbee in that sense but he's mostly appealed as a precise kicking type in that same way Gilbee has. As a smaller mid/def I can't imagine he playing in the midfield for a team but in a back half. Sure. But it depends on how you project his game developing.

Mitch Harvey I've found to be an excellent mover. He's a big guy but he moves around with agility and doesn't seem as limited in his movement as others at that same height.

I saw Fantastia's SANFL grand final where he only had the four disposals. Small forwards like Fantastia while they can find the footy at lower levels aren't going to find 20+ disposals at the next level. And at that height he's not going to be a midfielder at the next level.

I can see where you're coming from with Battersby, probably hadn't actually seen him play before the Championships. So you wouldn't know what he can do in the midfield. His size will not be an issue at all, he is very much a natural midfielder - you just have to look at how he moves. And just because he is on the wrong side of 180cm, it doesn't mean he can't be a tough ball winner.

And you're basing your assessment of Fantasia on one game? One quiet game does not mean he can't find the ball. Again, he shouldn't be pigeon holed as a small forward only. He is more comparable to a Matthew Stokes, being a high half forward who pushes up. He doesn't really play as a traditional forward pocket.

 

[Lefthanded]

GC wouldn't pass on Sharenberg.

They have identified the HB position as one of their biggest needs.

If Shaw goes to GWS then Coll will pull the trigger at 6.

Coll will pull the trigger on who? Only player you've mentioned is Scharenberg and you've just said he won't go past GC at 5.

 

[harmesy 37]

Knightmare, I was interested in your rating of Jarman Impey at pick 26.

I saw a few interstate matches and he stood out for me as one of the best. Could he go higher than 26?

His ability to read the play and do the freakish things impressed me.

 

[Richo83]

Yeah I'm kinda not sold at all on Knightmare's player comparison/style thing. In 2011, he compared Toby Greene to Joel Selwood, which is a very kind comparison, given Greene can't kick. Furthermore, Joel Selwood was a much better player even at Greene's age, so even though Greene has time on his side he's already behind at equivalent ages.

He then compared Crozier to Dale Thomas and Andrew Walker who aren't similar at all, when he compared Crozier to Walker, I suspect because Walker once took a speccie, and so did Crozier. Other peculiarities are the comparison of Clay Smith to Kieran Jack (Jack is much more outside, and is a much better kick) Markworth as Fyfe (I've seen him a few times, nothing really jumped out as Fyfe-esque about his game) Kerridge as like Swan (again, not the comparison I'd go for but anyway) and Witts to Sandilands and Leigh Brown, who don't play similarly at all! He says that Dunstan is like Sewell only with better forward capacities. Well Dunstan is a miles better forward than Sewell ever was who is average up forward, and tends to just bomb it long whenever he has the ball even 100 meters from goal. That says to me that Dunstan isn't really like Sewell and that there's a better comparison out there. I'd hazard a guess and say that if Dunstan gets to 190 games, he'll have more than 28 goals to his name.

The problem is also the fact that while players may seem like a certain type at afl level, their roles can change once they get to AFL level, so saying: "oh, they're a half back at tac cup level, let's say they'll become like a Enright when they get into the system" presumes that clubs mainly use players in the way they're used at tac cup level. Often players get played out of position at lower leagues, that or they develop other skills. Knightmare's drafts are usually very good but the player comparisons are unnecessary.

 

[Nemisis]

#62 West Coast - Dwayne Wilson (SA – Mid/Fwd)
This is the PRIZE of the draft if it happens.
I think Port might even have a crack at him with a 20s pick (when they sort the trade picks)

 

[smashbox gill]

GC wouldn't pass on Sharenberg.

They have identified the HB position as one of their biggest needs.

If Shaw goes to GWS then Coll will pull the trigger at 6.

which is why they will go Kade Kod(however you spell it). He is arguably as good as Scharanberg on the HBF and has showed continued improvement throughout the year. He has been heavily linked with GC and he obviously addresses their need for a HBF

 

[Pendles2010]

Hey KM, What do you reckon about H.Beasley?
Posted a blistering 2.88 in the 20m at state combine and seems a traditional KKP. It seems he has grown now pushing 193cm. Any chance of him going?

 

[Two Planks]

Why is Ben Cavarra rated so low. Thought he would have been top 30.

 

[Lefthanded]

Hi KM, curious about Billy Hartung - you have him at 19 in your phantom draft and I've seen him elsewhere rated as expected to go in range 15-30 but can't see him in your power rankings (your top 50). Do you not rate him or is it an omission?

 

[Davo-27]

here is my top 30 draftees

Tom Boyd, Luke McDonald(NM), Jack Billings, James Aish, Blake Acres
Ben Lennon, Matt Scharenberg, Dom Sheed, Trent Dumont, Charlie Cameron
Cameron McCarthy, Dayle Garlett, Billy Hartung, Kade Kolodjashnij, Jarman Impey
Josh Kelly, Marcus Bontempelli, Nathan Freeman, Luke Dunstan, Zak Jones
James Battersby, Mitch Harvey, Luke Reynolds, James Tsitas, Jay Kennedy-Harris
Christian Salem, Ben Sokol, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Thomas Hodgson, Tom Verdeleur

if the Hawks get 2 of these i'd be wrapped...

 

[Davo-27]

Hi KM, curious about Billy Hartung - you have him at 19 in your phantom draft and I've seen him elsewhere rated as expected to go in range 15-30 but can't see him in your power rankings (your top 50). Do you not rate him or is it an omission?

imo Billy Hartung reminds me of Bradley Hill from the Hawks...

 

[JPod_31]

Hey KM, Did you see the AFL website about the draft prospects? If not, here.
http://www.afl.com.au/2013-draft/draftees/midfielders/

 

[Belnakor]

Pretty curious who West Coast have got their eyes on if they think he will slip to 11.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, I was interested in your rating of Jarman Impey at pick 26.

I saw a few interstate matches and he stood out for me as one of the best. Could he go higher than 26?

His ability to read the play and do the freakish things impressed me.

Impey is a good one. Very composed with ball in hand and can do some damage.

It's just a draft with lots of quality smalls though - Taylor, Hartung, Impey, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Honeychurch. There is a lot of quality smalls this year.

Hey KM, What do you reckon about H.Beasley?
Posted a blistering 2.88 in the 20m at state combine and seems a traditional KKP. It seems he has grown now pushing 193cm. Any chance of him going?

Hugh Beasley showed some signs early season but unlikely he'll get drafted, even in a shallow year for KPPs.

Why is Ben Cavarra rated so low. Thought he would have been top 30.

As mentioned earlier there are so many quality smalls it's hard to see him drafted, or if he is then certainly not early or top 30.

Cavarra while incredibly productive in the TAC he lacks that x-factor or that point of difference. He's an excellent runner who goes all day and will find the ball. But you need more than that.

Hi KM, curious about Billy Hartung - you have him at 19 in your phantom draft and I've seen him elsewhere rated as expected to go in range 15-30 but can't see him in your power rankings (your top 50). Do you not rate him or is it an omission?

Hartung while he's highly rated by AFL clubs and most other scouts I struggle to see a role for him. Perhaps as a forward he finds a role but without the ability to win his own ball I struggle to see how he makes the position his.
He's someone I rate around 50 in my rankings. He's just not necessarily someone I'd choose to draft and let someone else take a chance on.

Hey KM, Did you see the AFL website about the draft prospects? If not, here.
http://www.afl.com.au/2013-draft/draftees/midfielders/

I've had a glance but I'll take a better look this weekend.

 

[Knightmare]

Pretty curious who West Coast have got their eyes on if they think he will slip to 11.

Sheed, Acres and Bontempelli are my guess. At least one of them will be there in any case if not more.

 

[Footyking123]

willsmore 28? Surely not

 

[Matty411]

Pretty curious who West Coast have got their eyes on if they think he will slip to 11.

Dom Sheed 100%.