Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[aussierulesrules]

This goes against everything I have ever heard about Hrovat..........

It was mentioned on last year's version of this thread that he had the worst skin folds of anyone at the combine last year. That's what I was mostly referring to with that.

 

[Knightmare]

How would you compare Mayes, Billings and Lennon, purely on what they did prior to being drafted (ie. Billings and Lennon so far and Mayes up until 12 months ago)?

Lots of variables come into it.

Billings as one example hasn't done a whole lot this year because he's struggled with injury and played very few games.
He's the more highly rated and in my view the better of the three and would probably get picked first of the trio but more so based on what he did as a 17 year old and based on that relatively small sample this year.

Mayes and Lennon have both done plenty in their respective years. Lennon in the games he's played has in almost all featured in the bests while Mayes performed strongly back home in SA.
Probably Mayes of the two would be selected first but not a whole lot in it.

Loving the work KM and enjoyed reading the updated order.

Where do you expect the last live picks to be taken? Or in other words, how many live picks (excluding upgrades) do you think will be taken.

Cheers.

Probably around pick 60. There could be say 50 live selections this year if I was hazard a guess.

KM,

Excellent work, makes for interesting reading. I see that you have moved Tom Shanahan, who originally was not in your phantom draft, to #62 and now to #37.

Is it his performance at state testing that has caused this or are you hearing talk about him ? The talk around the campfire at the EP footy club is that there are quite a few clubs showing interest and it looks like he may get picked up.

Thanks in advance.

I've liked the few games I've seen of Shanahan. His rise is more a case of I initially had him in as a speculative selection but now he's starting to be spoken about more with his strong finish to the season and solid testing.

Whether a club takes him on draft day I do not know but from what I can gather there is some talk about him as you are suggesting which is an encouraging sign so he's in the mix to be selected. Just not certain until his name is read out on draft day.

Km, what would be the logic behind the dogs passing on aish for billings? Thanks again

WBD have shown a tendency to go for local talent and having taken Macrae and Hrovat from the APS competition last year I can't help but think the club will have seen plenty of Billings at his best from last year and be pretty high on what they saw.

In looking through the list Griffen and Cooney as early selections both came from SA but that was nearly 10 years ago now with most of the others coming from Victoria since with Cristian Howard one of the very few other South Australians on that list picked since.

Another factor to consider is in the second round there will be further opportunities to look for a rebounding back flanker with James Battersby and Zac Jones likely to be available.

Billings and Aish are rated relatively evenly. I personally favour Billings but it could go either way with Scharenberg another who will no doubt also receive strong consideration another possible choice but I can't help but think that Billings if there will be the choice at this stage until I hear strong word suggesting otherwise.

 

[aussierulesrules]

There's a suggestion on our board (the source being someone who was on the money about the McEvoy trade the night before it was announced and who also told us Longer wanted to come to us before anyone else) that there could be a big go-home factor with Aish, which we, for one, are apparently very wary of.

Billings as one example hasn't done a whole lot this year because he's struggled with injury and played very few games.
He's the more highly rated and in my view the better of the three and would probably get picked first of the trio but more so based on what he did as a 17 year old and based on that relatively small sample this year.

Mayes and Lennon have both done plenty in their respective years. Lennon in the games he's played has in almost all featured in the bests while Mayes performed strongly back home in SA.
Probably Mayes of the two would be selected first but not a whole lot in it.

Thanks for that. So Billings had a really good year in his underage year? I know he kicked 6 goals in one of the champs games (was that against a div 1, or div 2 team?), but haven't heard much about what else he did for that year at APS, TAC Cup, or champs levels.

Unrelated, but what also perhaps hasn't been mentioned much, if at all, is that Aish, like Bontempelli, has a November birthday, so he played those two years of senior footy at SANFL level at 16 and 17yo, which is pretty remearkable. It gets mentioned a lot that Bontempelli has the late birthday and as such could still have a lot of development in him, but it never seems to get mentioned for Aish?

 

[clipboardbinocs]

Put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised to see Aish slip.

Not a great look when a kid tries to pick where he wants to go before he's even in the system.

 

[aussierulesrules]

This may be why Collingwood want pick 6. Last year they got Grundy because he put some clubs off with his interviews and Aish may land in their lap this year in a similar way!

 

[Kenno27]

I can see Aish slipping.

Kelly & Bontempelli look like they will rise and Aish will fall.

 

[tigs2010]

Put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised to see Aish slip.

Not a great look when a kid tries to pick where he wants to go before he's even in the system.

Where's he want to go?

 

[tigs2010]

Unrelated, but what also perhaps hasn't been mentioned much, if at all, is that Aish, like Bontempelli, has a November birthday, so he played those two years of senior footy at SANFL level at 16 and 17yo, which is pretty remearkable. It gets mentioned a lot that Bontempelli has the late birthday and as such could still have a lot of development in him, but it never seems to get mentioned for Aish?

Because Aish is already a gun and doesn't need a reason why he hasn't done enough yet.

 

[Ethicz]

Would Gold coast be reaching at Kade for 5 KM? I know Scotty loves his Tassies but its hard to see Aish sliding past us?

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised to see Aish slip.

Not a great look when a kid tries to pick where he wants to go before he's even in the system.

Or when he doesn't lay a tackle in a grand final.

 

[maverick001]

How highly do you rate Jono Marsh as a midfielder or a KPF? Do you think he is worth a punt at say pick 18?

Also with picks 3, 18, 24, 25 at this stage, who do you think St Kilda will pick?

I'm hoping for Billings, Dumont/Crouch, and two of Dunstan/Hourigan/Acres/Jones/Marsh.

I'd like to win lotto

 

[I am Jack]

I'd like to win lotto

It's actually fairly realistic, those players will more than likely be available at those picks - if St Kilda want them.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I'd like to win lotto

So would I. Which of those do you consider the equivalent of winning lotto?

Billings is very likely to be there at 3, Dumont in particular is every chance of being there at 18, Dunstan, Jones, or Marsh could be there at 24 (especially Jones) and Hourigan will almost certainly be there at 25.

 

[maverick001]

It's actually fairly realistic, those players will more than likely be available at those picks - if St Kilda want them.

Acres at 24/25? From what I understand he will go well before this. ok fair enough on the rest, guess I was thinking crouch no chance at 18 but reading a bit more it sounds like this is possible

 

[maverick001]

Acres at 24/25? From what I understand he will go well before this. ok fair enough on the rest, guess I was thinking crouch no chance at 18 but reading a bit more it sounds like this is possible

If there was a good chance Acres was available at 24 I would want the Eagles doing everything they can to upgrade 28 to 24

 

[I am Jack]

Acres at 24/25? From what I understand he will go well before this. ok fair enough on the rest, guess I was thinking crouch no chance at 18 but reading a bit more it sounds like this is possible

You had Acres/Jones or Marsh at 25.
Jones should be there, Marsh could very well be there as well, Acres probably not so.

Dumont should be there at 18... Dunstan maybe 24, most likely not, but Hourigan will be there.

 

[maverick001]

You had Acres/Jones or Marsh at 25.
Jones should be there, Marsh could very well be there as well, Acres probably not so.

Dumont should be there at 18... Dunstan maybe 24, most likely not, but Hourigan will be there.

Yes I had conceded this, was basing my statement on Acres and Crouch, but HayesTheChamp did give a choice of players so I guess it is possible

 

[DeeWong6996]

Knightmare, I've been following your phantom draft pretty closely and had a few questions on Freeman I would like to ask. You originally had him at abouts 4-5 in your power rankings, right? Why the dip all of a sudden? I would have thought his showing at the combine would have enhanced his credentials.

And secondly, what do you remember of Tyson in his draft year? Good deal for the Dees?

 

[Brenton Davy]

Hey Knightmare,

Have you seen anything of Brian Fenton from North Adelaide? Came back for the last few games of the year after a knee reco. Plays as a midfield tagger that can find his own ball as well. A couple of people have dissed his disposal, but it's nowhere near that bad.. do you see him going as a late pick for someone looking for an effective tagger? Absolutely blanketed each of his opponents in the SANFL finals. Is only 21-22. If I had to compare him to anyone it would be Ryan Crowley, real serial pest type.

Thoughts?

 

[Chris25]

Few questions/comments on some of the profiles for the South Australians...

How does James Battersby compare in style to Lindsay Gilbee? Yes, Battersby is a smart user of the ball and he showed some good rebound in the U18 Championships. But for me, he is first and foremost a midfielder. A strong, clearance winning midfielder at that. I don't recall Gilbee ever doing that. And as a defender, if anything, he compares more to a Steve Morris (although slightly more polished) as he has the same hard at it nature and attacks to defend. Also, has better agility and elusiveness in the midfield than old Lindsay. Apart from being a good kick, I don't see any Gilbee in him.

I think I've questioned the odd Luke Reynolds/Trent McKenzie comparison before, so I wont touch that again. But, do you really think he is 'above average athletically for someone his height'? I would suggest the opposite is more likely. James Sicily is above average, Reynolds doesn't come close. Could say the same for Mitch Harvey, where you've highlighted his speed and agility.

And as for Orazio Fantasia, I don't agree with the Milne comparison. But more importantly, you said "as good as his work is with ball in hand just don’t expect him to get big numbers because that’s not his game". Have you seen Fantasia before? Because that actually is his game. As a forward in the U18 Championships, he averaged over 15 touches a game. While playing as a midfielder at Reserves level in the SANFL he was consistently winning 25+ touches, and in just his third league match he finished with 24 disposals. Some pretty big numbers so far in his career.

 

[captainrich]

agree with you KM think Schranberg is very likely to slip to us, unless St Kilda or Coast take him which seems unikely, would be a good fit for us since we have some very good back flankers leaving however whether he is the A grader we need given our needs in the kpf and inside mid department is debateable

 

[I am Jack]

Few questions/comments on some of the profiles for the South Australians...

How does James Battersby compare in style to Lindsay Gilbee? Yes, Battersby is a smart user of the ball and he showed some good rebound in the U18 Championships. But for me, he is first and foremost a midfielder. A strong, clearance winning midfielder at that. I don't recall Gilbee ever doing that. And as a defender, if anything, he compares more to a Steve Morris (although slightly more polished) as he has the same hard at it nature and attacks to defend. Also, has better agility and elusiveness in the midfield than old Lindsay. Apart from being a good kick, I don't see any Gilbee in him.

I think I've questioned the odd Luke Reynolds/Trent McKenzie comparison before, so I wont touch that again. But, do you really think he is 'above average athletically for someone his height'? I would suggest the opposite is more likely. James Sicily is above average, Reynolds doesn't come close. Could say the same for Mitch Harvey, where you've highlighted his speed and agility.

And as for Orazio Fantasia, I don't agree with the Milne comparison. But more importantly, you said "as good as his work is with ball in hand just don’t expect him to get big numbers because that’s not his game". Have you seen Fantasia before? Because that actually is his game. As a forward in the U18 Championships, he averaged over 15 touches a game. While playing as a midfielder at Reserves level in the SANFL he was consistently winning 25+ touches, and in just his third league match he finished with 24 disposals. Some pretty big numbers so far in his career.

Do you think Joshua Glenn will nominate? If not, what is his go?
The kid looks like an exceptional talent.

 

[clipboardbinocs]

Where's he want to go?

Doesn't want to leave SA.

Perhaps the first time the history of man that someone has held that view.

 

[Calcium Man]

Doesn't want to leave SA.

Perhaps the first time the history of man that someone has held that view.

Well good luck with that. Adelaide first pick at 21 and port trading down 14 to 20 and 27 with 20 going for Polec, he'd wanna get used to the idea of living in another state.

To be fair a few South Aussie boys (Gibbs and cooney come to mind) have been predicted to pack up and move home pretty quickly but when they live in Melbourne they quickly figure out Adelaide is boring.

 

[tigs2010]

Doesn't want to leave SA.

Perhaps the first time the history of man that someone has held that view.

Interesting. I guess a big club like Collingwood and playing finals might be able to convince him to stay if they did pick him.