Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[V9x18]

how would you rate the top 5 in your power rankings of 2013 (martin, boyd, hogan, acres, mcdonald) vs your top 5 this year (petracca, brayshaw, heeney, moore, mccartin)?

 

[sr36]

With likely top 5 pick Keays in the Lions academy will that sway who we choose with our first live pick? I know its pick 65 so it's fair to say it won't really effect it much? Lions will go best available? Thanks for the info on the state league players previously.

When drafting youngsters, many seem to think that you should go for needs with your late picks, but I'd argue that you're better off going the other way around. To me at pick 65, you pick the bloke most likely to become AFL standard. With most good'uns already crossed off the board, you don't want to be crossing off any more yourself. Only choose for needs in this position if it is mature agers that you are looking at.

 

[Deledio2Conca]

Great work once again KM, love reading your insights!

Will you be making any last minute changes to your Power Rankings? Or are they now set in stone?

 

[SizeMatters]

It very likely that who we pick 65 may not be on our list in 2 years time

IMO we are top 2 for talent id. Only really one bloke who didn't play a game the last few years taken in the main draft (Wearden) and that was through constant injuries such as his broken jaw from that prick GCS player who king hit him. Can't think of any player especially last 4 years, including the go home 5 who are all good players, that doesn't look like they belong at AFL level.

 

[Son_Of_God29]

Hey KM do you think Daniel Davie from Bendigo will get selected tonight and if so where

 

[Knightmare]

how would you rate the top 5 in your power rankings of 2013 (martin, boyd, hogan, acres, mcdonald) vs your top 5 this year (petracca, brayshaw, heeney, moore, mccartin)?

I like the top end more last year.

Martin and Boyd particularly I had streets ahead of the top guys this year.

To rank those guys based on who I felt they would be at the time of creating my power rankings each year they would fit something like:
Martin
Boyd
Petracca
Brayshaw
Heeney
Moore
Hogan
McCartin
Acres
McDonald
*then the next few from last year I generally regarded also as better than the next few from this year. But that's roughly based on pre-draft rankings where I would have had them all.

When drafting youngsters, many seem to think that you should go for needs with your late picks, but I'd argue that you're better off going the other way around. To me at pick 65, you pick the bloke most likely to become AFL standard. With most good'uns already crossed off the board, you don't want to be crossing off any more yourself. Only choose for needs in this position if it is mature agers that you are looking at.

I see needs filling as something you do in free agency and through trade week.

Through the draft I'd be looking to go best available at almost every opportunity, early or late.

Great work once again KM, love reading your insights!

Will you be making any last minute changes to your Power Rankings? Or are they now set in stone?

I may do a sneaky review of my rankings and make a slight, slight change before the draft if there is anything I look at that doesn't intuitively feel quite right but if I do it will only be a couple of guys flipping positions as has been the case really over the last few weeks with those rankings pretty well set.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM do you think Daniel Davie from Bendigo will get selected tonight and if so where

It will probably be a slow night for Bendigo u18 fans.

Haven't heard any rumblings regarding Davie and he wasn't invited to the national combine so interest would be limited to a very small numbers of clubs I imagine. But you never quite know.

 

[Rockford]

I like the top end more last year.

Martin and Boyd particularly I had streets ahead of the top guys this year.

To rank those guys based on who I felt they would be at the time of creating my power rankings each year they would fit something like:
Martin
Boyd
Petracca
Brayshaw
Heeney
Moore
Hogan
McCartin
Acres
McDonald
*then the next few from last year I generally regarded also as better than the next few from this year. But that's roughly based on pre-draft rankings where I would have had them all.

With the slight amount of extra info available on last years draftees how would you fit the two top 5's into each other now? Has anyone definitely dropped out of your top 5 from last year? Or found their way into it?

 

[Hartnet]

Do you feel any pressure to get your phantom draft as close as possible to what will eventuate tonight? seems like there are a heck of a lot of people who base opinions and hopes on what you produce throughout the year in your phantom drafts. is this the hardest year to pick from picks 5-25 taking into account certain club needs and the fact there's no real standouts after about the first 4-7 picks? seems like there are a lot of guys around the same mark from 5-20 and its all about picking the guy who will thrive the most in a professional environment and has the highest ceiling?
Amazing work through the year km, you must spend countless hours on this.

 

[flipper83]

I like the top end more last year.

Martin and Boyd particularly I had streets ahead of the top guys this year.

To rank those guys based on who I felt they would be at the time of creating my power rankings each year they would fit something like:
Martin
Boyd
Petracca
Brayshaw
Heeney
Moore
Hogan
McCartin
Acres
McDonald
*then the next few from last year I generally regarded also as better than the next few from this year. But that's roughly based on pre-draft rankings where I would have had them all.


I thought you were a big fan of Bontempelli last year. Did you forget him or would not have had him in the top 10 based on how you saw him last year?

 

[Knightmare]

With the slight amount of extra info available on last years draftees how would you fit the two top 5's into each other now? Has anyone definitely dropped out of your top 5 from last year? Or found their way into it?

If I did say a top 15 now based on this year and last year I'd take today based on what I know..
1. Boyd
2. Bontempelli
3. Petracca
4. Brayshaw
5. Heeney
6. Moore
7. Hogan
8. McCartin
9. McDonald
10. Aish
11. Billings
12. Kolodjashnij
13. R.McKenzie
14. Acres
15. Blakely

So that may give you a better feel for where all these guys fit.

Just this year up the top end I wouldn't want to pick a genuine franchise player. It's more just a bunch of really high level guys.

Do you feel any pressure to get your phantom draft as close as possible to what will eventuate tonight? seems like there are a heck of a lot of people who base opinions and hopes on what you produce throughout the year in your phantom drafts. is this the hardest year to pick from picks 5-25 taking into account certain club needs and the fact there's no real standouts after about the first 4-7 picks? seems like there are a lot of guys around the same mark from 5-20 and its all about picking the guy who will thrive the most in a professional environment and has the highest ceiling?
Amazing work through the year km, you must spend countless hours on this.

No pressure with the phantom draft specifically.

I only rate myself based on the quality of my profiles and quality of my draft rankings. If both improve from year to year that's all I concern myself with. And if I outperform some clubs and outperform a few more clubs with each year then that is what I will personally draw satisfaction from.

The actual phantom draft itself is just for fan interest and not of high priority to me.

 

[Wild Bill]

Amazing effort again KM. this is my first stop to read up on the players we draft tonight.

Hoping for Weller or Cockatoo with 16 and McDonald with 25. Would be ok with a punt on Goodyear with our 3rd rounder.

 

[Knightmare]

Bontempelli was inside my top 10 last year but not quite inside my top 5 at that time.

If I was to re-do last years draft I'd have Bontempelli at 1 or 2 with that decision between Boyd/Bontempelli as to who all things said and done is the best talent from last year.

 

[hollywood23]

Laverde and Weller at 17 & 20...please make it happen

 

[Glenny83]

RIP Phil Hughes, taken way too early doing what you loved. I think everyone has an empty feeling inside them today, I know I do.

 

[MightyDons4]

Laverde and Weller at 17 & 20...please make it happen

I'd much rather take Lever at 17 and one of Weller/Laverde at 20.

 

[MightyDons4]

RIP Phil Hughes, taken way too early doing what you loved. I think everyone has an empty feeling inside them today, I know I do.

Not the right place to post this, but RIP nevertheless. Was shocked to hear the news and my thoughts are with his family, friends and poor Sean Abbott.

 

[Rockford]

Link removed..

Better than following the tracker. You'll need to close a few ads but here's a live stream of the draft coverage.

Edit: mods mightn't appreciate the link posted in the thread. PM me if you want the link

 

[Smoocher]

Just like to say a big THANK YOU to KM and I think I write on behalf of all the BF community. Very informative thread each year leading up to the draft which keeps us all entertained in the off season.
You answer all questions day in day out with out question.
Great work and thanks again.

 

[Masicar666]

Hey km. what are your thoughts on collingwoods picks ? I don't no whether to be happy or pissed. I think there were better players at picks 30 onwards available. I'm definitely pissed we passed on Mckenzie. I also think Essendon cleaned up and was the big winner, your thoughts on that ? Thanks

 

[BrockBlitz]

KM do you know anything about any player port picked, because we don't....

 

[Wild Bill]

Thoughts on the Roos 3 defenders? I am surprised with no speed added.

 

[SizeMatters]

Thoughts on Lions draft? You got 2 out of the 3 correct!

 

[Shuperman]

Hey Knight, who do you think had the best draft this time and how do you think we did?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey km. what are your thoughts on collingwoods picks ? I don't no whether to be happy or pissed. I think there were better players at picks 30 onwards available. I'm definitely pissed we passed on Mckenzie. I also think Essendon cleaned up and was the big winner, your thoughts on that ? Thanks

The picks were very Rendell themed with Rendell a contested ball is king kinda guy (not a bad thing) based on his recruiting with Adelaide for all those years and he has clearly taken that with him to the Pies.

None of the guys taken by the Pies would have been my picks and I'm surprised that no outside types were taken and for value while Collingwood did ok I wouldn't call it a spectacular draft either with based on my draft board some better value options available.

To grade Collingwood's draft day performance a B would be right, with Moore that only exceptional pick by draft position.

KM do you know anything about any player port picked, because we don't....

Howard and Austin were both GWS academy guys from NSW overlooked. Dougal Howard has the versatility to play key forward or key defence. Logan Austin is an overager and a key defender who can read it well down back. From a developmental perspective as academy guys both can be seen as two with some scope to develop. While I'm not an advocate of going tall late draft generally I don't think either are bad choices late.

Jesse Palmer is an undersized but productive key forward from the TAC Cup.

Thoughts on the Roos 3 defenders? I am surprised with no speed added.

Durdin has the versatility to play more than just key defence though that is probably where his best chance to develop is. Very much like Jake Carlisle in that he can play back, forward or relief ruck if required. Good talent but will need some time.

Daniel Nielson I feel North overpaid for. Very much a stopper only type key defender.

Ed Vickers-Willis has some pace and while tall he can provide some run and carry as well as further versatility as a unique running/skilled tall.

Thoughts on Lions draft? You got 2 out of the 3 correct!

I was aware Brisbane liked their Tasmanian recruits so I picked McGuinness and Watts for Brisbane for a reason.

Dawson is a good value get as a utility who reads it exceptionally well and has excellent marking ability with the biggest hands in this draft class.

Harris Andrews while he'll take time to develop is a good project tall with some scope to develop. Good value again.

Watts for me is just too thin and not someone I personally would have picked in the national draft. But that's just me.

McGrath late draft is a solid get. As a small mid/fwd he could be handy if he can stay healthy.

McGuinness is something like a Tom Cutler equivalent in this draft and late draft is another may make it type given his improvement and production this season down back.

Hey Knight, who do you think had the best draft this time and how do you think we did?

Essendon and Melbourne for me had the best draft. In picking Laverde and Langford Essendon scored two genuine top 10 quality selections. Melbourne with Petracca, Brayshaw, Neal-Bullen, Stretch, O.McDonald nailed every pick for me and did very well.

On West Coast I feel like they may have found a couple of pieces. Duggan has a good skillset and you can put him anywhere and he can play. Don't think he'll be one of the best in this draft but he is more than capable. Damien Cavka late is that other one for West Coast I like. Best endurance in the draft and had a big finals series in the TAC Cup, really elevating his production and hitting the scoreboard. Cavka is good value late.
Nelson is a non-improver this year but has a good skillset and can play mid/hbf but mid draft is about where he was expected to go so not a terrible get. Lamb is another taller type with some versatility, another who can run. Lamb you notice out on the field, sometimes for the right reasons, sometimes for the wrong reasons. Picked slightly later than expected but not a complete shock either with his inconsistent effort/application/defensive IQ and positioning.