Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[aussierulesrules]

Hey Knightmare, great job again this year.

Just wondering if you have a bit more info on Dan McKenzie, like why he only played the one game in the champs, when he had 18 possies in it (at 89% disposal efficiency) against one of the div 1 teams (Vic Country) and given how well he uses the ball and how damaging he looks like he can be with his possessions? Was his omission from the other games injury related, and do you have his stats from the TAC Cup GF, where he was named BOG? Cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

The Swans picked up a bloke who didn't make your final phantom but was on earlier versions.... if you have his bio floating around could you lob in into this thread when you get the chance? Seems like a massive reach, no one saw that coming..... must be some untapped upside, I can't find a phantom draft where he was in the top 50.

That would be James Rose. Rose is a handy medium marking forward but he is just for me a strange selection in the national draft but even more so inside the top 40. He is good but not dominant by position and really needs to build a midfield game to compliment his pretty good play as a medium forward which doesn't appear likely.
The good things: He relatively has some class and power by position. Has a smooth, relatively penetrating kick. Can also play on a back flank. Capable mark overhead.
So there are some bits to him that make him draftable but he is not in my 60 because he doesn't have that ability through the midfield at this point and is an only good but not dominant general forward.

Rose is in a great environment to develop and Sydney had some options in Oscar McDonald or perhaps a small forward like a Lonie as other examples so Sydney had options but obviously liked what Rose offers so it will be interesting to see if he can develop into something AFL relevant.

KM do you know where I can view the under18 championship games?
I can't find them anywhere.
thanks

You might need a file sharing type of site to get the tapes of some of those u18 champs games.

Why do you think Mckenzie slid so much?

There is some talk that mentally clubs weren't impressed and that would be the most logical explanation.
Otherwise somewhere for a more extensive footballing analysis I posted somewhere on the pies board yesterday something on this topic if you go through my posting history I'm sure it will pop up somewhere.

Hey Knightmare any interest from any of the clubs for a scouting gig? Good luck with it and thanks again for your work.

I've had some dialogue with a couple of clubs. I'll see what happens. If nothing happens then I'll be going around again and producing something, somewhere online.

Outstanding stuff KM.

Is there any reason you can think of for Laverde slide. Was one of the least likely sliders I would've thought due to hiss all-round talent. Anything us Bombers should be a bit wary of?

No major issues re. Laverde that I'm aware of. I'd pick him and Langford with confidence.

KM. Well done on a few accounts. One - thanks for sharing your insights. Two - you nailed 15 of the top 20 (Melbourne order is noise). OK - 2 were done but you made the hard calls and made them early.

Impressed you picked Marchbank and Cockatoo inside top 10 as they were questionable calls. Crows not taking Durdin was gutsy.

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I was just following the rumour mill putting my own interpretation on it and for a change that first round came reasonably close.

Marchbank was linked to GWS for some time and the rumours seemed to have a real strength to it in the leadin to the draft and I heard about Cockatoo earlier that day so I just made that change and just re-shuffled the following picks.

Do you think there was anything on the psych testing and interviewing that might have led to Laverde sliding as far as he did?

As per the post above nothing I'm aware of. I imagine it's just a case of clubs liked/preferred other talents.

My sense with Laverde is more he was second best available on the draft board of a few clubs - Collingwood and West Coast are thought to have had Laverde as that next best available at their picks.
It's more from what I can gather just due to the evenness and the variation on opinion regarding the talent in this draft that caused Laverde to fall.

Don't do it just yet...I need to know how the rookie draft picking order works...can't find any info on Dr Google...can you give a quick overview?

The picks will be in reverse ladder order for the rookie draft.

KM could Daniel Howe become a mundy/fyfe type player.

That's the very best case scenario and highly against the odds. I'm interested to see Howe the midfielder goes, he only played the one game through the midfield this year and looked good through there, but otherwise he can become a back flanker.

Hey Knightmare, great job again this year.

Just wondering if you have a bit more info on Dan McKenzie, like why he only played the one game in the champs, when he had 18 possies in it (at 89% disposal efficiency) against one of the div 1 teams (Vic Country) and given how well he uses the ball and how damaging he looks like he can be with his possessions? Was his omission from the other games injury related, and do you have his stats from the TAC Cup GF, where he was named BOG? Cheers.

I don't believe Dan McKenzie was struggling with injury during the u18 champs (I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong). Instead he just wasn't such a highly regarded talent with that one game seen largely as an outlier game.

 

[TazHawk15]

About to take the toaster in the bath.... Can't believe hawks didn't take lamb.
Hawks to get wilkenson or Evans in the rookie draft?

The Hawks go Back2Back and you are still not happy.

Dude his name is not Graham Wrong you know.

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

Are you doing a top 30-40 rookie draft KM?

 

[grundog49]

Hey KM, I have 4 questions.

What is Harry Dear's comparison?

What is Mitch McGovern's comparison?

What is Harrison Wigg's comparison?

And how do you reckon we went in this years draft?

 

[Stamos]

Hi KM,
I know this year is weak for rucks, but are any worth a rookie spot?

 

[Draft Buster]

KM Do you know how many picks there will be in the Rookie Draft? Also do you think the AIS and W.A Captain Brad Walsh will be selected as a rookie? Would love to see the kid get a chance, looked very good for the AIS against Collingwoods strong second side at the G.

 

[The German Hunter]

The Hawks go Back2Back and you are still not happy.

Dude his name is not Graham Wrong you know.

Very happy going back to back.... Just don't want to fall of the pace of the front runners!
Just thought lamb would have a lot more to offer than Howe, but in Graeme we believe! He nails it every year!

 

[sven_inc]

Many thanks again KM.

I have a left field question if you don't mind?

Considering the current recruiting trend away from ruckman in the draft, do you feel 50 is a realistic reflection of Pittonet's spot in the pecking order? Going back a few years before that bias came in do you feel he'd likely be placed any different seeing as though he's touted as the best non-two-metre-peter ruck? The Hawks seems to think he could step in next year if needed.

 

[Asgardian]

Howard and Austin were both GWS academy guys from NSW overlooked. Dougal Howard has the versatility to play key forward or key defence. Logan Austin is an overager and a key defender who can read it well down back. From a developmental perspective as academy guys both can be seen as two with some scope to develop. While I'm not an advocate of going tall late draft generally I don't think either are bad choices late.

Jesse Palmer is an undersized but productive key forward from the TAC Cup.

You just about nailed Port's day at the draft ...

Adding in Frampton we have sure gone the speculative route.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Hey KM I just want to thank you for always replying to all my questions and giving great insight into a topic that I've become more and more interested in over the last couple of years. I hope you land a gig somewhere really soon mate, even though I will miss reading through your yearly thread if you do.

 

[Panthera]

KM. Well done on a few accounts. One - thanks for sharing your insights. Two - you nailed 15 of the top 20 (Melbourne order is noise). OK - 2 were done but you made the hard calls and made them early.

Impressed you picked Marchbank and Cockatoo inside top 10 as they were questionable calls. Crows not taking Durdin was gutsy.

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That's the easy end of the draft...super impressive that Knightmare nabbed 2/3 of the Brisbane Lions late draft show as well as McGrath only a few picks earlier too!

McGrath could be genuine best 22 with the right development; a steal that late in the draft

 

[Knightmare]

Are you doing a top 30-40 rookie draft KM?

Don't plan to put together a rookie draft. Just don't have the time with work commitments heavy at the present time. Happy still to answer questions regarding any prospects or whatever interests people.

Hey KM, I have 4 questions.

What is Harry Dear's comparison?

What is Mitch McGovern's comparison?

What is Harrison Wigg's comparison?

And how do you reckon we went in this years draft?

I don't have any draft comparisons immediately up my sleeve for those ones and when you get down the bottom end they become less and less apparent and more like a stretch unless you compare them to project players/state leaguers few will know for there to feel a relevance of comparison.

I'd recommend just thinking of them as simplistically as

Dear - Long term project and very much a work in progress, tall key forward with the ability to rotate into the ruck.

McGovern - Athletic but undersized, mature age key position player who has shown glimpses without dominating.

Wigg - Skilled and efficient outside accumulator who down back will struggle down back to contain opponents and on a wing probably not a damaging as I'd like either as more a moderate rather than high level penetrator.

Hi KM,
I know this year is weak for rucks, but are any worth a rookie spot?

Tagliabue is probably the most likely to receive an opportunity as a mature ager with real height but then athleticism.

Tom Read is another as a young SA ruckman who can also play forward.

KM Do you know how many picks there will be in the Rookie Draft? Also do you think the AIS and W.A Captain Brad Walsh will be selected as a rookie? Would love to see the kid get a chance, looked very good for the AIS against Collingwoods strong second side at the G.

Someone, perhaps Snoop Dog will start a thread with the number of rookie selections each club will take.
Brad Walsh is in the mix but not a certainty to go as a rookie. I saw the AIS v Collingwood game and I had Walsh among the better mids which is a terrific sign. I would have liked for him to have elevated his game this year which I'm not completely convinced he has done. Has a hard edge and some nice qualities so if a club is looking for a mid who will have a crack and can compete then Walsh should be a consideration.

Many thanks again KM.

I have a left field question if you don't mind?

Considering the current recruiting trend away from ruckman in the draft, do you feel 50 is a realistic reflection of Pittonet's spot in the pecking order? Going back a few years before that bias came in do you feel he'd likely be placed any different seeing as though he's touted as the best non-two-metre-peter ruck? The Hawks seems to think he could step in next year if needed.

I expect Pittonet would go roughly in the same draft position most years and I don't think late/rookie ruck prospects have had their value decrease greatly, though perhaps slightly.

Where I am feeling a significant difference is with those early draft rucks has definitely decreased over time and you're not going to see as many go first round/top 10/top 5/top 2 or number one overall. Clubs want the immediate rucks now and have over the years found success looking at the bottom of opposition lists. Trading and playing movement is more fluid than ever and then on top of that you also have free agency so getting a ruckman isn't as hard as it once was.
Additionally clubs understand that many of the best ruckmen in the game were recruited out of the rookie draft - Sandilands/Cox/Mumford/Jolly among others so there seems and rightly to be a decrease in the weighting of those at least first round rucks.
Then on top of this we now also have international recruits and my prediction anyway with that influx of international recruits only to increase in the future, 15 years from now I anticipate half the ruckmen in the game will be ruckmen from overseas with probably a high number from the United States with the surplus of extreme talls they have and the influence with many of their physical profiles that they could have in our game. So that's something else to in the future look out for. I may have that timeline slightly wrong, it could be sooner, it could be much further down the track but that's my best guess and I think that will also be a key variable little thought about at this stage regarding the recruiting of ruckmen through the draft.

You just about nailed Port's day at the draft ...

Adding in Frampton we have sure gone the speculative route.

Apologies for missing Frampton. Frampton is a poor tap ruckman but where he stands out is in finding the footy around the ground and covering the ground with his endurance excellent. He while not nearly in the same class is that Stefan Martin equivalent in this draft, as that guy Frampton could pattern his game on. If he can become more competitive through the ruck but then make that ability to accumulate around the ground stand out against rivals at the next level, that's his best chance of making the grade.
I can see with Port's style of play Frampton's game really appealing and working with what Port want to achieve so while I wouldn't necessarily have taken him in the national draft I do like him as a list fit or more specifically a gamestyle fit.

 

[Asgardian]

Apologies for missing Frampton. Frampton is a poor tap ruckman

Maybe he can improve with coaching?

Thanks for your efforts and especially on the Port draft podcast.

 

[Knightmare]

Maybe he can improve with coaching?

Thanks for your efforts and especially on the Port draft podcast.

Frampton doesn't have a super commanding feel at ruck contests or a big leap. He is 200.3cm and 90.15kg officially which reads ok. But then you look down the page at his vertical of 53cm (in the bottom 3% at the draft combine). I'm not betting on that changing drastically for him based on that and his poor hitout totals. To his credit his hitouts over the last few rounds of the year improved but it's not a strength. Additionally his small hands don't help with his hands in the bottom 25% at the combine and the equal shortest reach of the rucks in this draft class of those at the combine along with Rowan Marshall.
So it's not something even with great coaching that I see getting even to a good standard. Perhaps a passable standard, but that's more what you're hoping for with that area of his game likely always to remain a weakness.

Given all this Frampton as a result while he'll need to iron our his ruck work it's not going to be a strength and he'll have to be treated as a guy where you you're looking for something else to be his point of difference if he is at the next level to have a use. And for me given he has shown by position he is an excellent accumulator I'd be looking to continue that and continue to further expand and improve upon that.

 

[maxrm]

Who do you suspect West Coast might target in the rookie draft? And do you expect Lim to get a shot somewhere?

 

[Knightmare]

Who do you suspect West Coast might target in the rookie draft? And do you expect Lim to get a shot somewhere?

My best guess would be some outside running.

Lim maybe. Castagna could be another alternative as a guy who is better again at breaking the lines. Maybe a Brenden Abbott or Jermaine Miller-Lewis as some local products could be other considerations.
Josh Glenn and Will Fordham are two I'd have high on my draftboard and as guys I can also see as list fits for WCE.

Otherwise just listen out for who the media links to WCE and who is training with the club in the leadup to the rookie draft and they'll be the more likely names to be called out.

 

[HereIam86]

Who do think Brisbane will take in the rookie draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Who do think Brisbane will take in the rookie draft?

I'm interested to see if Brisbane take Matthew Hammelmann as a rookie after he got passed up in the national draft. He showed enough during the u18 champs to suggest at least a rookie position I would have thought on a team needing some more key talls.

Nick Jackson as a skilled but tall defender and Brayden Preuss as a tall, strong ruckman are two others as again local products I can see Brisbane considering strongly.

With Brisbane needing more pace Jason Castagna and Oleg Markov are others Brisbane should be considering.

 

[year of the cat]

Your thoughts on two potential rookies for the Cats Knightmare?

 

[Knightmare]

Your thoughts on two potential rookies for the Cats Knightmare?

Tyler Keitel as a key defender if Geelong like him in the back half would make sense.

Peter Bampton as a mid who has missed much of the season and u18 champs with injury seems the type Geelong would take the chance on.

I could see those two being pretty close to if not the top of Geelong's draft board going into the rookie draft.

 

[CatRiot]

KM, What did you think of the Cats selections?
10 - Cockatoo
47 - Gregson
55 - Gore
60 - Cunico

Gregson threw me a bit, didn't know much about him, but reasonably happy overall - they all seem to have pace and skill.

Cheers

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Tyler Keitel as a key defender if Geelong like him in the back half would make sense.

Peter Bampton as a mid who has missed much of the season and u18 champs with injury seems the type Geelong would take the chance on.

I could see those two being pretty close to if not the top of Geelong's draft board going into the rookie draft.

Don't you think those players would be a chance of going much sooner than Geelong?

 

[year of the cat]

Tyler Keitel as a key defender if Geelong like him in the back half would make sense.

Peter Bampton as a mid who has missed much of the season and u18 champs with injury seems the type Geelong would take the chance on.

I could see those two being pretty close to if not the top of Geelong's draft board going into the rookie draft.

A key defender is certainly an area of need for us and makes sense.

I wasn't shocked that Bampton missed out altogether in the ND though surely he gets a rookie spot. Clearly his foot disposal is his achilles heel. Whilst on inside mids - how do you rate Mellington? His highlights look impressive enough and I believe he played well on Brayshaw late in the season. What are the doubts on his game?

 

[Bicks]

KM, first thanks for all your hard work with this years draft, excellent as always.

2 Questions, Is the rookie draft order club by club available anywhere yet??

Given Adelaide didn't really address our need for a player with good speed and excellent skills by foot I'm wondering who you feel could be good options in the rookie draft for us with that in mind, personally I like a lad I've seen play a few times up here in Ballarat for the Rebels and St. Pats Tom Templeton, from what I've seen on those few occasions he has good speed, goes in hard has and excellent all round skills and has a very good left foot kick which our new coach Phil Walsh seems to have a penchant for???