Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hi KM

Visiting earlier than usual this year due to the Suns likely low finish!!

Question for you. I'm of the opinion the Suns need more mids and bigger bodied ones at that with our injury toll showing up our lack of midfield depth. Given we are likely to finish bottom three (pick #1 to #3) and also end up with picks #19 (end of 1st rd CP) and between #20 and #22 (Rd 2), what good bigger bodied mids do you see being available around these picks, with Brisbane, Sydney and GWS already having dibs on Keays, Mills and Hopper via Academy selections?

The good big bodied mids are those academy boys primarily or Dunkley as a father son. Assuming Gold Coast have a top few pick and are looking for a midfielder. Darcy Parish, Darcy Tucker, Luke Partington and Ryan Clarke. None of them are your tall, power mids. But second round maybe a Gregory Clark, Jordan Snadden or James Parsons second round as taller mids could be considerations.

My recommendation to Gold Coast would be to add some established players from opposition lists. Put those picks on the table and see who bites and I'd add to that some players who aren't playing to exception and don't project as long term best 22 players. Sam Day as one example having been taken early draft some years ago.

Knightmare , I see in today press that Curnow is injured and may play little for the rest of the year. Many on our board immediately gravitated to the thoughts of ...Curnow fitting the "Wells Draft Paradigm" looking a for a sliding player due to form , fitness , injury. Yesterday on RStars , I think they had Curnow at 2... seemed high but I have not seen him.... so just how good is he? I see Skippo put him beside a Stringer or Darling ..... what are your thoughts... Footballer or athlete who plays footy.

It's a shame for Curnow to sit out the season. But he'll still go first round no problem so he can sleep easy with all the hype that late last year and early this year has surrounded him.

Number two on a draft board doesn't surprise me if true with Curnow. Lots of experts have been speaking about him as a sure top five pick.

How do I rate Curnow? He is an athletic, strong and growing. Has versatility. Stringer and Darling are good comparisons with Curnow similarly a shorter key forward who can play elsewhere. He is a footballer so you're not looking at a just athlete.

I just struggle to get top five excited about a 191cm guy who I'm not even sure of the best position of. And as such I rate him below that top group myself. But late first round is more when I would be prepared to pick him, not that he'd be available so late. And in Geelong's situation presumably finishing let's say around 8th, it's hard even with the injury, though not out of the question that he is available.

 

[Chizm]

Hey KM,
Long time lurker, first time poster! Just wondering who some good KPFs are to have a look at with the upcoming championships?
cheers

 

[Skippos]

Knightmare , I see in today press that Curnow is injured and may play little for the rest of the year. Many on our board immediately gravitated to the thoughts of ...Curnow fitting the "Wells Draft Paradigm" looking a for a sliding player due to form , fitness , injury. Yesterday on RStars , I think they had Curnow at 2... seemed high but I have not seen him.... so just how good is he? I see Skippo put him beside a Stringer or Darling ..... what are your thoughts... Footballer or athlete who plays footy.

The good big bodied mids are those academy boys primarily or Dunkley as a father son. Assuming Gold Coast have a top few pick and are looking for a midfielder. Darcy Parish, Darcy Tucker, Luke Partington and Ryan Clarke. None of them are your tall, power mids. But second round maybe a Gregory Clark, Jordan Snadden or James Parsons second round as taller mids could be considerations.

My recommendation to Gold Coast would be to add some established players from opposition lists. Put those picks on the table and see who bites and I'd add to that some players who aren't playing to exception and don't project as long term best 22 players. Sam Day as one example having been taken early draft some years ago.



It's a shame for Curnow to sit out the season. But he'll still go first round no problem so he can sleep easy with all the hype that late last year and early this year has surrounded him.

Number two on a draft board doesn't surprise me if true with Curnow. Lots of experts have been speaking about him as a sure top five pick.

How do I rate Curnow? He is an athletic, strong and growing. Has versatility. Stringer and Darling are good comparisons with Curnow similarly a shorter key forward who can play elsewhere. He is a footballer so you're not looking at a just athlete.

I just struggle to get top five excited about a 191cm guy who I'm not even sure of the best position of. And as such I rate him below that top group myself. But late first round is more when I would be prepared to pick him, not that he'd be available so late. And in Geelong's situation presumably finishing let's say around 8th, it's hard even with the injury, though not out of the question that he is available.

Only a dislocated kneecap for Curnow - looks likely to be back this year again. Not as serious as first thought.

 

[Turbocat]

Only a dislocated kneecap for Curnow - looks likely to be back this year again. Not as serious as first thought.

Back for the Champs?

 

[Skippos]

Back for the Champs?

Unsure. Perhaps for the back end?

 

[dazzledavey36]

KM where is Jake Lovett at in terms of playing ability and chance of a father son at the dees.

Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,
Long time lurker, first time poster! Just wondering who some good KPFs are to have a look at with the upcoming championships?
cheers

Joshua Schache, Sam Weideman and Matthew Allen are the three to watch. Charlie Curnow if healthy and playing may be the best but due to injury I'm not expecting we'll see him.

Only a dislocated kneecap for Curnow - looks likely to be back this year again. Not as serious as first thought.

Fingers crossed he is back by the end of the year.

KM where is Jake Lovett at in terms of playing ability and chance of a father son at the dees.

Cheers

Late/rookie chance. Has shown some signs through the midfield but needs to find more footy more often to get picked.

 

[sharp450]

Knightmare watch out for Keiren Lovell from tasmania. He is a great ball winner and has a great sense of where the ball is going next. Also watch out for Flynn as a Ruck. Very good around the ground and in the Air.

You know if he is any relation to former Demon Andy Lovell GD ?

 

[Panthera]

Joshua Schache, Sam Weideman and Matthew Allen are the three to watch. Charlie Curnow if healthy and playing may be the best but due to injury I'm not expecting we'll see him.

Obviously before the Championships, right now - top 10?

 

[Knightmare]

Obviously before the Championships, right now - top 10?

Schache I see getting selected around pick 10 and possibly somewhere just inside.

Weitering, Parish, Tucker and Curnow are those expected at this stage to go before him. Then Schache is among that next group of probably 10 names.

 

[Snoop Dog]

Good to see got my boy McKay right up there now!

mate I reckon you are missing a few of the 19yo's who I think will be well in the mix this year considering the poor depth in this draft. In my top 100 (v loose order) I have quite a few.

 

[Panthera]

Schache I see getting selected around pick 10 and possibly somewhere just inside.

Weitering, Parish, Tucker and Curnow are those expected at this stage to go before him. Then Schache is among that next group of probably 10 names.

Interesting to see if my Lions trade our probable top 5 pick for a ready made player...

 

[Knightmare]

Good to see got my boy McKay right up there now!

mate I reckon you are missing a few of the 19yo's who I think will be well in the mix this year considering the poor depth in this draft. In my top 100 (v loose order) I have quite a few.

McKay has worked his way up there through performance and showing some positive signs. Had no TAC Cup games behind him last year to my knowledge, but he has done pretty well up forward so far and with a late year birthday I'll be tracking his development closely.

You're right about 19 year olds a lot of them are having a crack to get drafted having seen others in recent years before them do it.

I'm mostly sticking to the new names, to give them some exposure.

But will work the 19 year olds and state leaguers into it more as the season progresses. Wilkinson, Mattingly, Templeton, Ainsworth, Kovacevic, Buykx-Smith, Capiron, N.Coughlan, Minogue, Galloway, Mennen, Sheridan-Ferrie, T.Roos, Kol from the TAC Cup alone are those I'm watching with interest.
And there are probably another 10 or so pretty draftable first or second year VFL/VFL Development players also.
So there are enough interesting ones around.

Interesting to see if my Lions trade our probable top 5 pick for a ready made player...

It's a possibility and I wouldn't discount it. Making moves for established players is the way you create a winning team as Hawthorn and Sydney have over the years demonstrated.

All reports from Brisbane are that they will go hard after Alex Rance as a free agent.

Lachie Henderson if he becomes available would make sense. Same with Sam Reid (Sydney) or Jake Carlisle depending on where they sit on their team lists at seasons end.

 

[Panthera]

McKay has worked his way up there through performance and showing some po



It's a possibility and I wouldn't discount it. Making moves for established players is the way you create a winning team as Hawthorn and Sydney have over the years demonstrated.

All reports from Brisbane are that they will go hard after Alex Rance as a free agent.

Lachie Henderson if he becomes available would make sense. Same with Sam Reid (Sydney) or Jake Carlisle depending on where they sit on their team lists at seasons end.

23 of 38 on our main list (plus all rookies) are 23 or under, with 15 not yet 21 years old...obviously all teams require quality kids, but right now; we need experienced players more.

Yes; we'll probably lose Aish, but Keays from all reports fills that gap nicely and with a few experienced players more than likely finishing up in Maguire, Staker and McGuane - we'd have to have close to $2M cap space to go after best 18 players

Time will tell.....

 

[Wizard17]

McKay has worked his way up there through performance and showing some positive signs. Had no TAC Cup games behind him last year to my knowledge, but he has done pretty well up forward so far and with a late year birthday I'll be tracking his development closely.

You're right about 19 year olds a lot of them are having a crack to get drafted having seen others in recent years before them do it.

I'm mostly sticking to the new names, to give them some exposure.

But will work the 19 year olds and state leaguers into it more as the season progresses. Wilkinson, Mattingly, Templeton, Ainsworth, Kovacevic, Buykx-Smith, Capiron, N.Coughlan, Minogue, Galloway, Mennen, Sheridan-Ferrie, T.Roos, Kol from the TAC Cup alone are those I'm watching with interest.
And there are probably another 10 or so pretty draftable first or second year VFL/VFL Development players also.
So there are enough interesting ones around.



It's a possibility and I wouldn't discount it. Making moves for established players is the way you create a winning team as Hawthorn and Sydney have over the years demonstrated.

All reports from Brisbane are that they will go hard after Alex Rance as a free agent.

Lachie Henderson if he becomes available would make sense. Same with Sam Reid (Sydney) or Jake Carlisle depending on where they sit on their team lists at seasons end.

Lachlan Knight is another over age player. One thing that hurts him is he is playing for the Jets who are pretty bad.

 

[MightyDons4]

Hey KM

Who would you liken Jade Gresham to in the AFL?

 

[Yabadoo22]

Hey knightmare
I can't see the saints getting another 3 top 20 draft picks at the end of the year due to the fact that anyone with any value has already been traded out or is to young and valuable to future sucsess. From an outsider do you see any value in anyone. If not who do you see them selecting with their pick between 1-5? Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM

Who would you liken Jade Gresham to in the AFL?

Gresham is your do it all, dominant small mid with good pace. He is this years Lewis Taylor equivalent. A few cm taller, but that's the comparison that comes to mind immediately. Good inside and outside but probably more outside at AFL level. Can rack it up at will at TAC Cup level. Can hit the scoreboard.

For immediate impact and production Gresham will be among those very best few so if a team has enough tall mids and not too many smaller mids, Gresham would be a good get.

Hey knightmare
I can't see the saints getting another 3 top 20 draft picks at the end of the year due to the fact that anyone with any value has already been traded out or is to young and valuable to future sucsess. From an outsider do you see any value in anyone. If not who do you see them selecting with their pick between 1-5? Cheers

Looking at the Saints list. Those worth top 20 picks I'd be looking at: Jack Steven, Jack Billings, Luke Dunstan, Jack Newnes, David Armitage, Josh Bruce (if he continues his current form), Patrick McCartin, Hugh Goddard and Billy Longer all would comment top 20 picks.

In terms of trades I'd consider in St Kilda's situation. David Armitage while he has broken out into an absolute monster this season, he is one where he has greatly inflated his value and if you're after picks I'd be talking to Gold Coast about their first round pick. If Gold Coast at least move up the ladder a few places and have their first pick somewhere from pick 4-6 that might be a situation where a trade for Armitage if he continues to produce might happen.

Armitage as a Queensland and as a dominant, strong bodied inside midfielder. That's what Gold Coast want. So that's I'd strongly consider if Gold Coast are committed to getting that immediate high level inside mid.

Otherwise Savage, Ross, Acres, Geary, Robertson, D.McKenzie, Lonie, Riewoldt, Hickey, Templeton, Montagna, Weller, J.Sinclair. Those guys are worth top 30 picks.

That's my rough feel with the St Kilda list without going through player by playing and saying exactly which pick I see each guy being worth.

--
In terms of who I see St Kilda taking. It depends entirely on where you're picking. I'd imagine best available would be the likely approach.

Weitering if it's pick 1. Probably Parish if it's pick 2. And so on. And look to fill the needs through trade week/free agency if involved, or otherwise look to fill some needs late/rookie draft. But best player generally is the best philosophy.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM if i can test your memory, what were knocks on Nathan Fyfe that had him slide to 20th in the 2009 draft, where did you rate him and us there a draft video?

 

[Knightmare]

KM if i can test your memory, what were knocks on Nathan Fyfe that had him slide to 20th in the 2009 draft, where did you rate him and us there a draft video?

Fyfe was always an absolutely embarrassingly poor kick. During the u18 champs in 2009 Fyfe had some absolutely shocking kicks - 5m out directly in front with a set shot missing etc - try and find some youtube highlight of Fyfe in the u18s and it will show just how badly he struggled - you'd be forgiven for putting a cross through his name after seeing those kicks.

As a junior Fyfe was a dominant marking forward (so strong overhead as he is now - that was always obvious to anyone that watched him) who just kept on taking marks inside 50 which was the interesting element and make you sit up and think "maybe he has something". But a medium marking forward who clearly isn't a key forward and don't have any apparent ability up the ground generally even if dominant probably aren't going early draft, particularly when they're arguably the worst kick in that draft class.

In addition to such poor footskills. I personally had no idea he could play through the midfield or win the contested ball like that so that's what I and likely everyone else missed at the time as he was playing forward. He had a light body. And as such a poor kick. That for the time didn't read "future star midfielder." It certainly never occurred to me in what was my first year following the u18s that he would based on what he was showing be able to develop into a midfielder. But since with all the tall midfielders, it's something where you look at guys that height, even with poor footskills and at least consider their chances of pushing up through the midfield.

At the time to be totally honest with you. I was looking at Fyfe on draft day at pick 20 and thinking "that's a reach." I had him at around 25 from memory in my phantom draft and I was looking at that more as the higher end of his potential draft range, as someone who could have/should have been picked mid draft. And as such a poor kick, with no obvious midfield ability and a lightish body.

*Note: In 2009 I never completed power rankings, just having my first go at a phantom draft.

But based on my feel of the time. I would have had Fyfe roughly around 40 on my draft board, and that's just purely off the intrigue of taking so many marks and being so dominant in terms of finding so much of it forward of centre, even through he wasn't finishing off his work.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

KM if i can test your memory, what were knocks on Nathan Fyfe that had him slide to 20th in the 2009 draft, where did you rate him and us there a draft video?

The only two clubs showed real interest in Fyfe was WCE and Freo.
Freo went early to pip WCE drafting him with there next pick.
Fyfe had a quite championships didn't show much and only played a couple of games.
His back end of season in colts was sensational, he played half foward and wing.
Was very very skinny 70kg's was amazing mark and great hands below his knee's.
Highlight of that colts season was him playing on Harley Bennell he kicked 5 goals on him but
Harley ran of him for some amazing runs out of defence.

 

[Dav1d]

Knightmare, did you head down to Simonds Stadium for the first game of Country v Metro?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, did you head down to Simonds Stadium for the first game of Country v Metro?

Had a family birthday on the day to attend back in Melbourne so no I wasn't at the game.

Very bummed out there is no tape available online of this game (someone PM me if they find the full game tape please). AFL.com, Foxtel or someone needs to pick up their act with getting all these games televised, and not just the final round or two.

Missed a ripping game from all reports. I'm surprised Metro were even competitive with Country a lot stronger this season. Then again WA to everyone's surprise beat SA. Balic sounds like he had a strong game, and as someone lots were suggesting could be a top few pick, it's the game I have been waiting for from him this season to confirm that he is worth the first round pick he is expected to require. Crocker also did his draft stocks no harm from what I can gather.

 

[Turbocat]

Had a family birthday on the day to attend back in Melbourne so no I wasn't at the game.

Very bummed out there is no tape available online of this game (someone PM me if they find the full game tape please). AFL.com, Foxtel or someone needs to pick up their act with getting all these games televised, and not just the final round or two.

Missed a ripping game from all reports. I'm surprised Metro were even competitive with Country a lot stronger this season. Then again WA to everyone's surprise beat SA. Balic sounds like he had a strong game, and as someone lots were suggesting could be a top few pick, it's the game I have been waiting for from him this season to confirm that he is worth the first round pick he is expected to require. Crocker also did his draft stocks no harm from what I can gather.

How hard can it be. Obviously there is a camera at the ground. Put it on 2am in the morning ..what ever FoxFooty should be more than just 9 games

 

[Knightmare]

How hard can it be. Obviously there is a camera at the ground. Put it on 2am in the morning ..what ever FoxFooty should be more than just 9 games

It has long been my pet peeve with the u18s/tac cup broadly.

Even the NEAFL is on youtube and I've been enjoying the GWS and Sydney games on there particularly this season to get that further insight into their interesting reserves sides.

I've long been surprised AFL.com haven't decided to capitalise on the opportunity to put the full game tapes on their site. From what I understand outside of grand final week the most views per article go to those u18 related articles, so using that theory it shouldn't be so difficult for AFL.com to connect the dots and start providing online access to all U18 Champs games, and I'd get all the major national competition games up there: TAC Cup, VFL, SANFL (all levels), WAFL (all levels) etc. And they could pretty easily make some coin just off having ads on their site.
I know I'd be using it daily anyway, particularly if it's a free to watch service it would get strong support.