Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[blueiris]

As a target for Gold Coast the name that comes to mind is David Armitage. A good QLD boy who may be open to persuasion, a terrific fit through the midfield as a strong bodied mid who can produce and play strong footy right away.

Tom Bell from Carlton, though probably not available given he is having a breakout season and may after Cripps be their second best player, he is a further big bodied midfielder who would be a big time get.

Whitecross can probably be had as a free agent.

Beyond Queensland maybe a Brent Stanton as a free agent would make sense.

Melbourne may be willing to give away their pair of top two picks in Trengove and Watts. And Watts probably looks better outside Victoria without pressure or expectations existing up North, and Trengove's only issue is injury, but if/when he gets that right he can be a good component to a midfield.

For what you're describing regarding durability Bryce Gibbs would be terrific. He is one of a few who doesn't miss games. But Carlton aren't giving him up. Jack Redden similarly as a super durable, very good mid would be another terrific addition. Maybe he is more available given Brisbane's glut of midfielders.

Others I'm sure will go out of favour as the season progresses and become more obvious as the season progresses. There are always good midfielders available, so Gold Coast while there is no surviving this season, it's going to be a better team any way you look at it next season.

We weren't willing to give Redden away last year for Beams can't see us giving him up this year he has been one of our best players this year before the injury

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM do you know anything about Jimmy Freeman from Dandenong and his chances of being drafted?
Overager who kicked 6 a few weeks ago for Dandenong who missed all of last year through a broken ankle

Freeman is an overage medium forward. I have seen a couple of his games this year and the element that I liked were his footskills. He has shown me that he can hit some inside 50 targets. And from his set shots particularly he has proven excellent and drilled it through from difficult angles which impressed me. Based on that for me there is an element of intrigue. The key for Freeman should be that continual improvement and upward trajectory. If he demonstrates that over the course of the season, then I and others will have an interest in him come draft day.

At this stage given he hasn't had a whole lot of exposed form I can't comment with conviction as to where he stands with regards to chances of getting drafted. Presumably as an overager if drafted it will be late/rookie draft which would be the aim. It's still early enough in the season where he could play his way on or off of draft boards, but I'd imagine he still will have to work his way onto most draft boards at this point with a few perhaps starting to look with interest if intrigued by a few of his recent performances.

 

[Knightmare]

We weren't willing to give Redden away last year for Beams can't see us giving him up this year he has been one of our best players this year before the injury

It may depend on the offer. If Gold Coast offer Brisbane a key forward. I'd be inclined to think Brisbane may be open to listening.

 

[Sam Guest]

KM not sure you have seen Dylan Clarke play but if you have where do you reckon he could go in the 2016 draft?

 

[Sam Guest]

KM me again as a go to MGS with Ryan Clarke and Tom Cameron who are featured in the draft but left off is Andrew Tashevski-Beckwith and David Cunnigham. do you have any details on where these boys will go?

 

[Knightmare]

KM not sure you have seen Dylan Clarke play but if you have where do you reckon he could go in the 2016 draft?

I have seen Dylan Clarke play in certainly round one at least and possibly one or two others games to have a feel for his game.

He could and it's too early to call, but he could be a second round selection next season if the draft was held today. But I'm liking what I'm seeing. Strong body. Reads the flight well. Very good intercept mark. Can win the 1v1 contests and take 1v1 intercept marks. So there are some good elements to his game to start with which suggest that he can be drafted next year with continued improvement.

 

[Knightmare]

KM me again as a go to MGS with Ryan Clarke and Tom Cameron who are featured in the draft but left off is Andrew Tashevski-Beckwith and David Cunnigham. do you have any details on where these boys will go?

All selected for VIC Metro so all have chances.

Tashevski-Beckwith can provide some good outside run and uses it well. He is a possible. Same with Cunningham who has been handy up forward.

Only Ryan Clarke of those four is looking at least at this stage like a top end selection, with the other three chances later in the draft.

 

[menzel case]

KM, i just realised youve edited your opening post to have weitering as no.1. is that list in order or is it just the group of players in that subheading?

id be interested to know who you rate higher out of weitering and mills?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, i just realised youve edited your opening post to have weitering as no.1. is that list in order or is it just the group of players in that subheading?

id be interested to know who you rate higher out of weitering and mills?

As per page one, at the current time I slightly favour Weitering over Mills.

The rapid rate of improvement is what does it for me with Weitering. And when you can hold your own against AFL key forwards and providing meaningful rebound often. I expect Weitering has taken over as the consensus number one pick.

Mills probably is or should be number two on most draft boards.

 

[Ben Drever]

Just looking over your page 1 mate.. Relised you haven't put in Gold Coasts activated compo pick for end of round 1 in the phantom draft.
Love your work..
Keep it up.

 

[Demon 16]

Hey Knightmare, I just noticed you have Cale Morton being re-drafted (to Sydney) at pick 88.

Um., I don't even know what to ask.. what the **** are you thinking?!!

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, I just noticed you have Cale Morton being re-drafted (to Sydney) at pick 88.

Um., I don't even know what to ask.. what the **** are you thinking?!!

Giving the state leagues some slight representation.

But in saying that. Mitch Morton is playing to an AFL standard off a back flank, certainly off the two VFL games I have seen of him this season.

I don't trust any of the Morton's as a rule. But Cale's play is excellent. Tall, skilled, winning the 1v1s, taking intercept marks, movement is good. His game is still very much AFL relevant.

The issue has never been talent, only putting in the work.

He could very easily be a final piece. For a Sydney given they lose Malceski and need someone immediate without putting any strain on the salary cap, and given they could win a premiership with Mitch. I like the fit myself.

 

[dellpro]

You're right in your observations. His kicking efficiency is through the roof. The question for Carlton will be whether they want another back flanker. But he has certainly elevated his play this year and looks like a genuine father son selection.



It depends on how small you call small. But at the top end Keays if you play him forward, Balic and Ah Chee are all exceptionally damaging and all project to go first round.

For the smaller, small forwards there will be options late draft/rookie draft as there are every year. And this is more the route I'd advise Carlton go given the pressing midfield and key position needs.

Brendan Dew and Nick Dodge in the mid-late draft range may appeal. Hisham Kerbatieh late draft or Nicholas Pavlou as probably a rookie are two others to keep an eye out for.



I have seen Sexton play both last year and this year. And I've also noticed his play so he does have some ability.

The run-down of Sexton's game is he is a small who plays off the back flank. He reminds me of a shorter Tony Armstrong. As a small back flanker with real class, an efficient kick, some time and space. His running game for a small is fairly unimpressive and he doesn't seem to have the endurance he needs to be a factor running off the back flank with any consistency. In addition to that the other aspect of my analysis is small backmen have always screamed alarm bells for me as v AFL talent, you're not always going to have someone as short as you to matchup on, and with that comes trouble.

My vision is actually for Sexton to play more forward and be someone used to find inside 50 targets as opposed to setting up play off a back flank. At least in the front half I don't see lack of height as such an issue, but down back, I don't like it.

G'day Knighter, very in depth feed you've got going here! Just starting out on these forums and was reading through and noticed this post about Sexton. Was just wondering if you'd seen any of his form of late and could offer an opinion on if he's a small sniff later in the year? Height is the obvious knock as you pointed out but seems as though he's developing some run into his game with a lot of handball receives and is hitting target after target. Noticed he pushed into the midfield a few weeks back against Eastern and was pretty handy in there when Curnow went down. Offered a solid option to deliver the ball forward.

Also, if you saw the Country vs Metro game on the weekend, who were your standouts/players to watch?

Cheers!

 

[Demon 16]

Giving the state leagues some slight representation.

But in saying that. Mitch Morton is playing to an AFL standard off a back flank, certainly off the two VFL games I have seen of him this season.

I don't trust any of the Morton's as a rule. But Cale's play is excellent. Tall, skilled, winning the 1v1s, taking intercept marks, movement is good. His game is still very much AFL relevant.

The issue has never been talent, only putting in the work.

He could very easily be a final piece. For a Sydney given they lose Malceski and need someone immediate without putting any strain on the salary cap, and given they could win a premiership with Mitch. I like the fit myself.

Fair enough - thanks for the response.

Having seen him play at Melbourne over the years, I think there were more issues than just application.

He's incredibly soft, and he's surprisingly quite a turnover merchant by foot. I'm very surprised that you say he's winning a lot of 1v1s as well - that was a huge weakness of his at Melbourne.

That said, I havnt seen anything of him since he finished at West Coast, so good on him if he's finding some form in the VFL.

I'll eat my hat if someone drafts him though - you can bookmark that!

 

[Knightmare]

G'day Knighter, very in depth feed you've got going here! Just starting out on these forums and was reading through and noticed this post about Sexton. Was just wondering if you'd seen any of his form of late and could offer an opinion on if he's a small sniff later in the year? Height is the obvious knock as you pointed out but seems as though he's developing some run into his game with a lot of handball receives and is hitting target after target. Noticed he pushed into the midfield a few weeks back against Eastern and was pretty handy in there when Curnow went down. Offered a solid option to deliver the ball forward.

Also, if you saw the Country vs Metro game on the weekend, who were your standouts/players to watch?

Cheers!

I wasn't at the Country v Metro game on the weekend having had a family birthday commitment on the day. Balic and Crocker from reports have helped their draft stocks with strong performances. And Ainsworth for Country who is eligible next year also put his name up in lights as one to watch next year and potentially a high end pick. They will be the names to take out of the game I can imagine - or as best I can figure without having seen the game.

On Sexton. I can't recall when my previous post was but I still see Sexton's game the same way. I didn't see Geelong v Eastern and I haven't seen Sexton play up the field having only from what I recall having seen him play off a back flank. But for me that's what I want to see from him. Midfield minutes. Forward minutes particularly. I really want to see Sexton get a string of games on a forward flank, and I want to see how he does there. His skillset for me suggests that's where he should play his best footy.

In terms of draft relevance. Sexton is a part of the VIC Country team. So he is clearly on the radar of AFL recruiters and will get the exposure. I suspect he will be on a few watchlists, but I'm not yet convinced he will be on clubs draft boards and inside their best 50s and at this time he isn't inside my best 50/60 anyway. A large part of that is there are so many really impressive sub 180s with Gresham and Snelling the two absolute standouts this year.
But he has the talent so late/rookie is where Sexton will be considered for clubs if they feel he can be a list fit and offer something different.

 

[Knightmare]

Fair enough - thanks for the response.

Having seen him play at Melbourne over the years, I think there were more issues than just application.

He's incredibly soft, and he's surprisingly quite a turnover merchant by foot. I'm very surprised that you say he's winning a lot of 1v1s as well - that was a huge weakness of his at Melbourne.

That said, I havnt seen anything of him since he finished at West Coast, so good on him if he's finding some form in the VFL.

I'll eat my hat if someone drafts him though - you can bookmark that!

I like you understand just how ordinary Morton was at Melbourne and West Coast for that matter.

He was on my "never again" list after Melbourne even.

But when a guy produces. It gets hard not to give them the benefit of the doubt.

At the moment off a back flank Morton is demonstrating the right combination of traits. V Frankston my only criticism from that game was one sloppy handball. Otherwise by foot he was in that game certainly very good, hitting long targets and using it efficiently. He took a nice 1v1 intercept mark I noted and got some 1v1 spoils in. Provided strong run and carry a few times. And at 192cm. That's very handy.

With Morton it will be a question of consistency over the course of the season. But if he keeps playing like he did v Frankston, I'm interested to see more at the very least as for me the best player in that game with more positive plays I noted than with anyone else in that game, or any other state league player in any game to this point in the season.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Any DT rucks like Grundy in this draft Knight? My DT keepers is getting desperate for back up options haha. I wouldnt mind a quick run down on the likely DT types coming through this year for Keepers. Cheers

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Wanting to get your reading on the strength of the draft compared to the last couple of years.

2014 Draft was deep and had loads of quality KPP's to select and really good mids.

How would you summarise this year's draft? I realise another month with U18 will help but hoping you have a sense already.

 

[Knightmare]

Any DT rucks like Grundy in this draft Knight? My DT keepers is getting desperate for back up options haha. I wouldnt mind a quick run down on the likely DT types coming through this year for Keepers. Cheers

This isn't going to be a year for new rucks. Tim Sullivan maybe, and even he is a shortish ruckman so I'm not sold on him.
Otherwise possibly Mark Kovacevic as an overager.

The other rucks this year are more combo rucks who play better as key position players.

Next year look out for Goddard from WA. He is probably the better ruckman in the u18s.

I recommend in your game going to the trade table and finding an underutilised ruckman. I'm sure someone will have a surplus ruckman somewhere.

Wanting to get your reading on the strength of the draft compared to the last couple of years.

2014 Draft was deep and had loads of quality KPP's to select and really good mids.

How would you summarise this year's draft? I realise another month with U18 will help but hoping you have a sense already.

The brief overview is that this year in my view anyway is pretty comparable to 2009 to give you an easily quantifiable feel for what this draft has to offer.

So overall it feels like a below average. Top end is pretty even and doesn't have too many projecting as stars and the depth is pretty ordinary also. But as with 2009, there will still be some very good players and those who scout well have the opportunity to find some very good pros.

 

[blueiris]

Where would you rate Charlie Dixon? Is he worth $750 thousand a year Brisbane seem very set on him and Rance would they fix both ends of the ground for us would pick 23 be enough for Dixon.

 

[Gmod23]

Where would you rate Charlie Dixon? Is he worth $750 thousand a year Brisbane seem very set on him and Rance would they fix both ends of the ground for us would pick 23 be enough for Dixon.

Pay a KPP $750k and only give the team pick 23?!?!?! Must be the strongest draft in the millennium!

 

[BlackGun1]

Knightmare, the QLD list has been included on the website, Keays now at 185/82. http://www.afl.com.au/news/game-development/nab-afl-rising-star-program/u18s/queensland

 

[blueiris]

Pay a KPP $750k and only give the team pick 23?!?!?! Must be the strongest draft in the millennium!

He's out of contract I thought that's how that worked happens to us more than enough I don't think he's worth a top 4 pick

 

[Gmod23]

He's out of contract I thought that's how that worked happens to us more than enough I don't think he's worth a top 4 pick

How about a pick downgrade? Give up a top 4 and get a late first rounder or second rounder back.

 

[Balony_pony16]

This isn't going to be a year for new rucks. Tim Sullivan maybe, and even he is a shortish ruckman so I'm not sold on him.
Otherwise possibly Mark Kovacevic as an overager.

The other rucks this year are more combo rucks who play better as key position players.

Next year look out for Goddard from WA. He is probably the better ruckman in the u18s.

I recommend in your game going to the trade table and finding an underutilised ruckman. I'm sure someone will have a surplus ruckman somewhere.

Cheers mate, I'll get busy on the trade table for a ruck. How about the rest of the draft in terms of Mids, backs, and forwards with DT?... It looks like the talent is stacked in the midfield in this draft?