La Vuelta Ciclista a Espana 2024

[eth-dog]

Startlists are starting to filter through now, it looks like Roglic will ride despite having a crack in his spine from the Tour, but I would expect him to be below his best here. Other GC riders include Vlasov (if Rogla isn't 100%), Carapaz, Guillaume Martin, Lenny Martinez, David Gaudu, Kuss, Uijtdebroeks, Skjelmose, Mas, Landa, Adam Yates, Almeida, and probably Dunbar.

Thijssen, Ewan, Van Aert and Strong are seemingly the only sprinters in the field so far.

Josh Tarling will be the favourite for stage 1.

 

[Vader]

Gee, that's a lot weaker starting list than last year. The Vuelta often has the strongest starting lists, with lead riders backing up from both the Tour and Giro. Not this year...

 

[eth-dog]

Gee, that's a lot weaker starting list than last year. The Vuelta often has the strongest starting lists, with lead riders backing up from both the Tour and Giro. Not this year...

We haven't had a few indicate who their GC leaders are (AG2R, Arkea, Astana, Ineos, Intermarche, DSM, Jayco and Israel notably) so we might see O'Connor, Arensmen, Mienjtes, Barguil, Simon Yates and Derek Gee ride it.

 

[Orange Agent]

Not many sprint stages, dunno what Ewan will do here without much of a leadout. This was supposed Lenny Martinez main goal for the year but I doubt he can beat either of UAE's leaders. I think Landa has been in excellent form all year, I reckon he will back up ok from the Tour.

 

[SS3840]

Obviously because the squads haven't been announced yet in full, it's harder to predict who's going to win, but I'm confident in saying that Sepp Kuss probably won't be going back to back, because I don't think Team Visma aren't as strong as they were last year. Also, it's the middle of transfer season and some teams may say they're offering full support to riders even though they're leaving their current team. (See: O'Connor, Ben or Martin, Guillaume).

 

[eth-dog]

Not many sprint stages, dunno what Ewan will do here without much of a leadout. This was supposed Lenny Martinez main goal for the year but I doubt he can beat either of UAE's leaders. I think Landa has been in excellent form all year, I reckon he will back up ok from the Tour.

I think he'll finish top 10 but miss the podium.

 

[eth-dog]

Two things to note: Jay Vine is riding and Jayco have abandoned sprinting. Zana and Dunbar the leaders I reckon.

 

[yaco55]

Jayco has no GC leader. Harper may ride a soft GC and they will chase stages. Ewan was pulled out of the Vuelta after he struggled in the final stage of Burgos. It was a strange decision because it is the first time, Ewan has struggled in the mountains this season. In saying that he was awful in the flat sprint today in Poland when placed in perfect position by the team. You can't have doing flat sprints.

 

[Vader]

Two things to note: Jay Vine is riding and Jayco have abandoned sprinting. Zana and Dunbar the leaders I reckon.

View attachment 2077503

How many sprinters have bothered turning up to the Vuelta this year? This year's course has a ridiculous number of mountains, with very few flat stages, or even hilly stages where the sprinters can get to the finish line. It's simply not worth it for the teams to bring sprinters this year, and I doubt that Jayco would be the only team reaching this conclusion.

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[eth-dog]

How many sprinters have bothered turning up to the Vuelta this year? This year's course has a ridiculous number of mountains, with very few flat stages, or even hilly stages where the sprinters can get to the finish line. It's simply not worth it for the teams to bring sprinters this year, and I doubt that Jayco would be the only team reaching this conclusion.

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It's pretty much Coqard and Groves

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Watching the Giro or Tour I know I'm watching something from Europe.

Watching the Vuelta it looks like it could be somewhere in Oz a lot of the times, with the brown/golden soils and grasses and fields, and the trees are that light or olive green as opposed to dark green in the two other races.

I don't know if its my poor memory, but it looks like a lot less people are showing up this year compared to the last few that SBS has shown in full.

I also don't remember a finish happening on a bend, or the top of a mountain for points and seconds bonuses, being on a bend like I think it was for Tuesday's and Monday's stages respectively.

 

[eth-dog]

This is an average start list but this is still the best Grand Tour because it's so unpredictable. We have a pseudo sprint stage tomorrow but the rest is gonna be hell

 

[eth-dog]

The SBS crew talking Ben O'Connor up as favourite now is ridiculous. Bora don't give a shit for a reason.

 

[99 Problems]

The SBS crew talking Ben O'Connor up as favourite now is ridiculous. Bora don't give a shit for a reason.

Sure he’s not the favourite now but that was awful from Bora and a few other teams. He probably cracks on the tougher days but he can ride so defensively now and it’s a huge amount of time to give a guy who has top fived multiple grand tours, including one this year.

If Pog or Jonas were in the race I wouldn’t give him any chance, but none of the guys chasing him are close to that level. I’d have thought these teams would’ve learned after Kuss last year.

 

[Orange Agent]

I didn't watch because I'm at work but I am flabbergasted by the results. How can RedBull and UAE give 5 mins to a guy who came 4th at the Giro in arguably a better field than here? This is crazy.

 

[eth-dog]

Sure he’s not the favourite now but that was awful from Bora and a few other teams. He probably cracks on the tougher days but he can ride so defensively now and it’s a huge amount of time to give a guy who has top fived multiple grand tours, including one this year.

If Pog or Jonas were in the race I wouldn’t give him any chance, but none of the guys chasing him are close to that level. I’d have thought these teams would’ve learned after Kuss last year.

He's never finished within 10 minutes of the winner at any grand tour.

 

[eth-dog]

Sure he’s not the favourite now but that was awful from Bora and a few other teams. He probably cracks on the tougher days but he can ride so defensively now and it’s a huge amount of time to give a guy who has top fived multiple grand tours, including one this year.

If Pog or Jonas were in the race I wouldn’t give him any chance, but none of the guys chasing him are close to that level. I’d have thought these teams would’ve learned after Kuss last year.

He's never finished within 10 minutes of the winner at any grand tour.

 

[Vader]

He's never finished within 10 minutes of the winner at any grand tour.

Not even in previous Grand Tours where he's been allowed to take big chunks of time in breakaways. This is almost history repeating itself, with his maiden win at the TdF.

It's a pity that Jayco are losing Yates, as it means they will no longer have a GC rider on the team list.

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[Vader]

He's never finished within 10 minutes of the winner at any grand tour.

I know what I said before, but...

Take Pog out of the equation, and he's only 2:11 behind 2nd placed Martinez in this year's Giro. There's no Pog, or anyone remotely close to that level (i.e. Vingegaard) in this year's Vuelta.

With 8 mountain top finishes still to come, I don't think he'll finish in the top-5, and may not even be in the top-10. But he should be able to hold it for a few days, which will make this year's Vuelta a huge success for AG2R.

 

[eth-dog]

I know what I said before, but...

Take Pog out of the equation, and he's only 2:11 behind 2nd placed Martinez in this year's Giro. There's no Pog, or anyone remotely close to that level (i.e. Vingegaard) in this year's Vuelta.

With 8 mountain top finishes still to come, I don't think he'll finish in the top-5, and may not even be in the top-10. But he should be able to hold it for a few days, which will make this year's Vuelta a huge success for AG2R.

Yeah I think he's a GC rider and this is a weak field, but he's favourite for second ahead of Almeida, Yates, Uijtdebroeks etc now. Roglic just needs to be within a minute of him in stage 21 and he'll run it down.

 

[Vader]

Yeah I think he's a GC rider and this is a weak field, but he's favourite for second ahead of Almeida, Yates, Uijtdebroeks etc now. Roglic just needs to be within a minute of him in stage 21 and he'll run it down.

Given O'Connor's propensity for losing time whenever the roads tilt skywards, I'd say he'll be lucky to be within 3 min of Roglic by the start of stage 21.

 

[99 Problems]

He's never finished within 10 minutes of the winner at any grand tour.

Either had Kuss until last years race. Not all grand tours are equal, and while this one should be interesting and entertaining it’s not a strong lineup. Lots of non-top line GC riders coming off the tour and Roglic as the favourite. In 2024 he is just as likely as anyone to have an awful day, and what does he do if after a couple of mountain stages O’Connor hasn’t dropped the time back. His style is to roll with the group, attack very late and get bonus seconds. That doesn’t work anymore if O’Connor still has 3 or 4 minutes going into the final mountain stages.

 

[Vader]

Either had Kuss until last years race. Not all grand tours are equal, and while this one should be interesting and entertaining it’s not a strong lineup. Lots of non-top line GC riders coming off the tour and Roglic as the favourite. In 2024 he is just as likely as anyone to have an awful day, and what does he do if after a couple of mountain stages O’Connor hasn’t dropped the time back. His style is to roll with the group, attack very late and get bonus seconds. That doesn’t work anymore if O’Connor still has 3 or 4 minutes going into the final mountain stages.

O'Connor lost 1:11 on Stage 4, on the relatively short climb to Pico Villuercas. Given his history, there's no reason to think he won't ship the same (or greater) amount of time on each of the remaining 7 mountain top finishes.

I'm betting on Felix Gall being the highest placed AG2R rider by the end of the Vuelta.

 

[99 Problems]

O'Connor lost 1:11 on Stage 4, on the relatively short climb to Pico Villuercas. Given his history, there's no reason to think he won't ship the same (or greater) amount of time on each of the remaining 7 mountain top finishes.

I'm betting on Felix Gall being the highest placed AG2R rider by the end of the Vuelta.

I also don’t think he wins from here and it being a particularly tough route works against him. But if his form now is at the same level as the Giro most of these guys will need him to really explode to get 5 minutes back on him.

It was just so unnecessary from the teams chasing a podium. They didn’t need to chase him down, just keep it to a few minutes and it’s a non-factor. They tried to outsmart each other and ended up making the identical mistake as stage 6 last year.

 

[Orange Agent]

Roglic will crash at some point, and if Bora can't control a stage like this, it says a bit about the team they have here. 5 mins to a guy who is proven in 3 week races is very stupid.