La Vuelta Ciclista a Espana 2024

[eth-dog]

I'm still none the wiser as to why the other AG2R riders received yellow cards.

SBS mentioned that Carapaz had crashed in their highlights package, but didn't show the incident. Nothing in the Velo article explains why any rider, other than Lafay, should have been penalised.

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Apparently the blockade is against cycling rules

 

[Vader]

Apparently the blockade is against cycling rules

That's hilarious. Either the rule was introduced in the last 24 hours, or it's one which has never previously been enforced.

** Not mocking you. Mocking the Vuelta commissaires.

 

[eth-dog]

That's hilarious. Either the rule was introduced in the last 24 hours, or it's one which has never previously been enforced.

** Not mocking you. Mocking the Vuelta commissaires.

It's the latter

 

[Vader]

Watching last night's stage of the Vuelta now. They just stated that short steep climbs favour Roglic, with long steady climbs favouring BOC. Not unreasonable.

Who is favoured by long steep climbs?

I guess we will find out tonight and Sunday night.

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[99 Problems]

I think Mas has looked the best of the lot so far heading into the longer climbs and would probably have him favourite from here, but he’s possibly the most capable of throwing in a bad day that ruins his race.

 

[largebus]

On cue, Mas has a poor day going too deep but not as bad as O'Connor. Another fourth would be a miracle at this stage.

Gotta wonder why Felix Gall just dropped him though, there'll be no love lost there.

Rog has already had a bad day hard to see him not winning in Madrid now

 

[Vader]

On cue, Mas has a poor day going too deep but not as bad as O'Connor. Another fourth would be a miracle at this stage.

Gotta wonder why Felix Gall just dropped him though, there'll be no love lost there.

Rog has already had a bad day hard to see him not winning in Madrid now

I suspect BOC told Gall to leave him. Gall made up a hell of a lot of ground after leaving BOC - clearly the best AG2R rider in the race.

Rog put almost 2 minutes into BOC on tonight's stage. He's going to take 5+ on Sunday.

 

[99 Problems]

I couldn’t have been more wrong about Mas. Roglic still could find another bad day or not keep the bike upright for another week. The race for second behind him is really wide open so still think we’ve got some entertaining stages to come.

 

[Vader]

Tonight's finish line is at the bottom of a long descent, after the Puerto de Leitariegos climb. This climb is 22.8 km, at a fairly consistent 4.5%, maxing out at only 7%.

This is exactly the type of climb which suits BOC, far more than it does Roglic. If BOC is to win the Vuelta, or even finish in the top-5, he needs to make the most of this opportunity.

Tomorrow's finish is on top the Cuitu Negru, a climb which represent's BOC's worst nightmare - it's horrendously steep, for long stretches. If he hasn't established a BIG lead tonight, his chances of finishing anywhere near the top-5 will be blown away tomorrow.

 

[Vader]

I couldn’t have been more wrong about Mas. Roglic still could find another bad day or not keep the bike upright for another week. The race for second behind him is really wide open so still think we’ve got some entertaining stages to come.

There's just 19 seconds separating Mas (3rd) from Landa (5th). All three riders (including Carapaz (4th)) have a chance of finishing on the podium, and all 3 should be hoping/expecting to knock BOC off in the process.

Roglic has the race as good as won, but the race for the other podium steps looks like being an epic.

 

[eth-dog]

There's just 19 seconds separating Mas (3rd) from Landa (5th). All three riders (including Carapaz (4th)) have a chance of finishing on the podium, and all 3 should be hoping/expecting to knock BOC off in the process.

Roglic has the race as good as won, but the race for the other podium steps looks like being an epic.

Mas is a 2 minute better time trialist than the other two so big favourite for second.

 

[largebus]

Groves winning a stage with a cat 1 climb, world's gone mad

 

[eth-dog]

Groves winning a stage with a cat 1 climb, world's gone mad

Yeah I just assumed a GC stage.

 

[Vader]

Groves winning a stage with a cat 1 climb, world's gone mad

To be fair, it was by far the easiest cat 1 climb of the entire Vuelta. Based on gradients, it would have been lucky to have been cat 3 - it was just really long.

 

[eth-dog]

Ben just needs to stay within a minute of Carapaz and within 2 of Landa for the ITT to pass them IMO. Carapaz has only beaten him once in an ITT of the past 3 years and regularly loses by approximately 2-3 seconds/kilometre.

Landa needs 6 minutes minimum on BOC to pass him IMO

 

[Vader]

With BOC having fallen apart completely on Friday's stage, which concluded with 5km at 10%+, here's what they face in the run home:

Stage 15 - Summit finish on Cuitu Negru
This is arguably the 2nd hardest climb in Spain, behind the Angliru. It's 18.9 km at an average of 7.9%, but there's a short downhill section 2/3 of the way up the climb, so the average of the climbing sections is higher again.

The last 3 km averages are 12.1 km, 13.5 km, and 13.8 km, with a steepest point at 24%. There's also a nasty section, just before a short mid-climb descent, where it averages 12.8 % from 12-13km.

It will take a miracle for BOC to retain the lead after this monster. Roglic should be back in red tonight, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if BOC falls as low as 5th on GC.

Stage 16 - "Summit" finish on Lagos de Covadonga
The final climb goes up and down like a yo-yo near the summit, but has some very nasty sections before riders get to the very top. Somewhat bizarrely, the KotM point is at the finish line, which is well below the highest point on the climb.

The climb to Lagos de Covadonga is not as brutal as the Cuitu Negru, though it's still tough. The hardest sections are half way up the climb, where it averages 10.0% from 5-6 km and 12.2% (including the steepest section at 16%) from 6-7 km.

Stage 17 - Sprint finish into Santander
This stage has 2x Cat 2 climbs, but they're both relatively early in the stage. The last 50 km are mostly either flat or downhill. This should finish in a showdown between Groves & WVA.

Stage 18 - Sprint finish into Maetsu
This stage does have a Cat 1 climb, with the summit coming 45 km from the finish line. The course is definitely lumpy all day. It should suit WVA, but Groves has been climbing well - so it could end in a final showdown between the race's only 2 sprinters.

Stage 19 - Summit finish on Alto de Moncalvillo
This finish is almost a repeat of Friday's final climb, with a steady climb of 9.5% or more for the last 5 km.

The climb is 8.6 km at an average of 8.9%. Like Friday, it starts relatively easy, before getting nasty - and staying nasty all the way to the finish line. This kind of climb is BOC's kryptonite, conversely, it's Roglic' happy place.

Stage 20 - Summit finish on Picon Blanco
Rinse and repeat. The final climb here is 7.9 km at 9.1 %.

The final 6.9 km of this climb are all above 8.1%, with the steepest points (17% and 18%) coming half way up the climb. Once again, we can expect to see BOC getting shelled out the back of the peloton early on this climb. Once again, Roglic will find himself in his happy place.

Stage 21 - Flat Individual Time Trial in Madrid
This TT is double the length of the opening prologue, which was also flat. A reminder then of what happened on Stage 1, with times relative to Roglic (rather than the stage winner):
Roglic - 0
Mas - 22"
Carapaz - 23"
Rodriguez - 29"
O'Connor - 35"
Landa - 48"

Nothing is certain, but we can reasonably expect these gaps to be (roughly) doubled on the final stage.

Conclusion
The race still has 4 summit finishes and an ITT, none of which suit BOC. He should lose the red jersey tonight, with Roglic likely to take 3 min on him on the Cuitu Negru - and possibly as much as 5 min. The other GC riders should all close the gap to him significantly, but may have to wait for the later summits before they finally overtake him.

Beyond the Cuitu Negru, there are another 3 climbs, all of which are of the type which is BOC's kryptonite. And then there's an ITT, where he's expected to lose even more time to Roglic, Mas, Carapaz and Rodriguez (but not Landa).

So, we have 4 key questions...

• What happens within the AG2R team, once Roglic takes the red, and they're no longer riding to help BOC defend it. Will they switch their focus to Gall, who clearly has the better climbing form at present?
• With just 19 seconds splitting Mas, Carapaz & Landa, who will emerge to take 2nd place on the podium (behind Roglic)?
• Can BOC hold on for 4th or 5th, or will he fall even further, as the race toughens up?
• Can BOC hold off the challenge from his own teammate (Gall), to remain the highest placed AG2R rider?

 

[Vader]

Ben just needs to stay within a minute of Carapaz and within 2 of Landa for the ITT to pass them IMO. Carapaz has only beaten him once in an ITT of the past 3 years and regularly loses by approximately 2-3 seconds/kilometre.

Landa needs 6 minutes minimum on BOC to pass him IMO

Do you honestly see BOC being within 1 min of Carapaz (or 2 of Landa for that matter), given the 4 summit finishes still to come - none of which suit him at all?

 

[Vader]

Here's how much time BOC lost, relative to the other GC riders, on the climb to Puerto de Ancares on Friday:
Roglic: 1:45
Landa - 1:20
Rodriguez - 1:11
Mas - 57"
Carapaz - 57"
Gall - 48" ** stayed with BOC until late on the climb

The summit finishes on stages 19 & 20 are almost carbon copies of the climb to Puerto de Ancares. The climbs up the Cuitu Negru and Lagos de Covadonga are much harder again.

 

[eth-dog]

Do you honestly see BOC being within 1 min of Carapaz (or 2 of Landa for that matter), given the 4 summit finishes still to come - none of which suit him at all?

He's 3 minutes ahead. Carapaz needed a big breakaway to get most of his time back, and you never really know if Landa will have a bad day. Unlikely? Maybe. Impossible? No

 

[Vader]

He's 3 minutes ahead. Carapaz needed a big breakaway to get most of his time back, and you never really know if Landa will have a bad day. Unlikely? Maybe. Impossible? No

Landa is the one rider who is worse than BOC when it comes to TTs. He's the only rider BOC could get time back on in stage 21. However, he's also (arguably) in the best climbing form of the GC riders (other than Roglic), and thus likely to be the one putting most time into BOC before the TT.

You say that Carapaz needed a big breakaway, but that's how BOC gained all his time too. BOC gained 6:31 on that stage, plus time bonuses. Without this he'd be sitting equal 13th, alongside Sivakov.

With 4 big mountain top finishes still to come, I think there's a VERY good chance that Landa, Carapaz, Mas, and possibly others, can not only catch BOC - but put significant time into him.

Make no bones about it, BOC has been poor on almost all of the mountain top finishes in this year's Vuelta. He's consistently gone out the back door every time the gradients have hit 8% or more, which they do more often in the Vuelta than any of the other Grand Tours.

 

[Orange Agent]

On cue, Mas has a poor day going too deep but not as bad as O'Connor. Another fourth would be a miracle at this stage.

Gotta wonder why Felix Gall just dropped him though, there'll be no love lost there.

Rog has already had a bad day hard to see him not winning in Madrid now

Gall was their team leader for this race, Ben getting red threw a spanner in the works and they haven't managed it well. It's either ride for the red jersey or stick with the original plan and they kinda went 50c each way instead.

 

[Orange Agent]

There is still potential for big time gains if someone has a bad day. Team support is useless on these gradients. I'd expect Mas to be better tonight unless there is something wrong with him. I wouldn't discount somebody getting in a breakaway and getting big time back.

 

[eth-dog]

Landa is the one rider who is worse than BOC when it comes to TTs. He's the only rider BOC could get time back on in stage 21. However, he's also (arguably) in the best climbing form of the GC riders (other than Roglic), and thus likely to be the one putting most time into BOC before the TT.

You say that Carapaz needed a big breakaway, but that's how BOC gained all his time too. BOC gained 6:31 on that stage, plus time bonuses. Without this he'd be sitting equal 13th, alongside Sivakov.

With 4 big mountain top finishes still to come, I think there's a VERY good chance that Landa, Carapaz, Mas, and possibly others, can not only catch BOC - but put significant time into him.

Make no bones about it, BOC has been poor on almost all of the mountain top finishes in this year's Vuelta. He's consistently gone out the back door every time the gradients have hit 8% or more, which they do more often in the Vuelta than any of the other Grand Tours.

Well Carapaz has beaten BOC once in an ITT over the past 3 years and that was the shortest one of all too so I'd say Ben beats him in that area as well. And Ben has beaten him by a lot more as well.

You want to shit on Ben. Cool, don't care.

Then there's the fact that Landa is just as likely to lose 5+ minutes randomly in pretty much every GT he's been in.

 

[Vader]

Credit where it's due, BOC did a lot better on the Cuitu Negru than I expected. Where I was expecting him to lose 3+ minutes and with them the red jersey, he limited his losses to just 38 seconds and kept the red.

Chapeau Ben!

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[eth-dog]

Due to being sick I fell asleep at like 9 last night, why was Rogliç deducted 20 seconds?