La Vuelta Ciclista a Espana 2024

[largebus]

Landa dropping big time so Quick Step wait until 20 km to go to drop a rider from the lead group to help him when he's 3 mins behind. Movistar would be proud.

 

[Vader]

Landa dropping big time so Quick Step wait until 20 km to go to drop a rider from the lead group to help him when he's 3 mins behind. Movistar would be proud.

How the Hell does Landa lose 3:20 on a stage like this? It's just a very Mikel Landa kind of thing to do though...

I guess I'll have to wait and see how he did it, when I watch the highlights tonight.

 

[eth-dog]

A Grand Tour and Landa dropping 3+ minutes randomly on a stage that isn't tough for a GC rider, name a more iconic duo.

If Ben can stay within a minute of Carapaz tonight he should be able to hold on for a podium. As long as Rogla stays upright these last three stages he has red.

Also, Schmid has two seconds and a fourth this Vuelta, Zana has a second and a 6th. Dunbar has won a stage so at least they have one, it could have been 4 or 5 though.

 

[Vader]

A Grand Tour and Landa dropping 3+ minutes randomly on a stage that isn't tough for a GC rider, name a more iconic duo.

Such a Landa thing to do...

If Ben can stay within a minute of Carapaz tonight he should be able to hold on for a podium. As long as Rogla stays upright these last three stages he has red.

The finishes tonight and tomorrow night are basically carbon copies, so Carapaz has 2 chances of building a lead over BOC. Worst (and most likely) case for BOC is that he finishes 4th in Madrid - I suspect AG2R would have been ecstatic with that result at the start of the race.

Also, Schmid has two seconds and a fourth this Vuelta, Zana has a second and a 6th. Dunbar has won a stage so at least they have one, it could have been 4 or 5 though.

Jayco have had a pretty decent Vuelta, at least in terms of stage results. They're not going to get many UCI points from the overall race result, but they've collected plenty on the individual stages.

 

[eth-dog]

Such a Landa thing to do...

The finishes tonight and tomorrow night are basically carbon copies, so Carapaz has 2 chances of building a lead over BOC. Worst (and most likely) case for BOC is that he finishes 4th in Madrid - I suspect AG2R would have been ecstatic with that result at the start of the race.

Jayco have had a pretty decent Vuelta, at least in terms of stage results. They're not going to get many UCI points from the overall race result, but they've collected plenty on the individual stages.

Ben came out and said he'd rather finish 10th than 4th again. I think he'll be pretty motivated to stay with Carapaz and Mas.

 

[Vader]

Ben came out and said he'd rather finish 10th than 4th again. I think he'll be pretty motivated to stay with Carapaz and Mas.

There's motivated, and there's having the physical ability to do it. Based on the mountain stages ridden to date, they'll be dropping him like hot cakes.

Having said that, he's done the red jersey proud. He turned himself inside out on the Cuitu Negru and Lagos de Covadonga climbs, in an effort to keep the red jersey on his shoulders. The team could not have asked more of him, particularly given Gall's disappearance from the GC contest a few days ago.

 

[Vader]

Watching the highlights now. Landa didn't lose time because of a crash or mechanical problem. He just wasn't paying attention when EF started putting the pressure on, on the second climb.

It was just Landa doing Landa things.

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[largebus]

Solid ride by Ben, though I feel if RBH or Movistar ride hard tomorrow he'll slip off the podium.
On the other hand if he finishes within a minute of Mas he should claw back that in the time trial.
I rate him about 40-50% to keep on the podium

 

[eth-dog]

Solid ride by Ben, though I feel if RBH or Movistar ride hard tomorrow he'll slip off the podium.
On the other hand if he finishes within a minute of Mas he should claw back that in the time trial.
I rate him about 40-50% to keep on the podium

Going over their past ITT results h2h, they're pretty similar in terms of ability. Usually within 10-15 seconds of each other either way with one outlier in the Dauphine a couple of years ago.

Both are seemingly a bit better than Carapaz though.

 

[Vader]

Last night BOC lost 1:49 to Roglic (plus a 10 second bonus), 59 seconds to Mas and 46 seconds to Carapaz.

Tonight's final climb is almost a carbon copy of last night's. The big difference is what precedes it. Last night there was just a single Cat 3 climb in the middle of the stage, before the final assault. Tonight, it's all up or down, with very little flat terrain after the first 20 km - there are 2x Cat 1, 2x Cat 2 and 2x Cat 3 climbs, before the final Cat 1 climb to the finish line.

BOC now leads Mas by 26 seconds, and Carapaz by 1 minute even.

Based on last night, and every other short steep finish we've seen so far in this Vuelta, I'd expect BOC to lose about a minute to both of them. The extra climbing early in the stage is the joker in the pack, making almost any result possible. It really is a great penultimate stage for the Vuelta.

 

[Vader]

The other unknown with BOC is motivation. He turned himself inside out to defend the Red - and he absolutely deserves credit for that. I expected him to lose the red on the slopes of the Cuitu Negru - and he kept it for 4 more stages after that.

However, the Red is now gone, and he has no hope of getting it back (barring something unforeseen happening to Roglic). What does that do for his mental state? Does he have the mental strength to keep pushing himself as hard as he has been, in the hopes of defending a position on the lower steps of the podium?

 

[largebus]

100 km to go and Roglic's teammates are dropping like flies under the pace of Ineos, who seem to have remembered they're at the Vuelta. Did they go too deep at the end yesterday?

 

[eth-dog]

100 km to go and Roglic's teammates are dropping like flies under the pace of Ineos, who seem to have remembered they're at the Vuelta. Did they go too deep at the end yesterday?

Maybe, but Mas and BOC need 3 minutes tonight to stand a chance, Carapaz 4. That move all but won it.

 

[Vader]

100 km to go and Roglic's teammates are dropping like flies under the pace of Ineos, who seem to have remembered they're at the Vuelta. Did they go too deep at the end yesterday?

Skybots doing Skybot things, because it's the only thing they have been programmed to do.

Seriously, why did they bother? Was it just an attempt to get some TV time for the sponsors, given that they have been arguably the most anonymous team of the entire Vuelta?

I don't buy the excuse that Matt & Simon came up with, about them trying to win back the white jersey.

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[largebus]

2 RBH riders have abandoned in the last hour, seems that rumour of food poisoning has some weight to it

 

[eth-dog]

Yay Jay!

 

[Vader]

LOL at the Skybots, driving the peloton for so long, allegedly to setup Rodriguez for the white, only to see him miss the split on the penultimate cli.

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[largebus]

LOL at the Skybots, driving the peloton for so long, allegedly to setup Rodriguez for the white, only to see him miss the split on the penultimate cli.

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They'll be back next year when Dr Richard Freeman's suspension ends.

 

[largebus]

Great stage for riders with Irish surnames. I feel like RBH losing riders blunted the pace on the final climb.
What a ride from O'Connor to hang on to second. Third at worst if he doesn't crash. Paret-Peintre yesterday and Gall today have been absolutely brilliant
All up to him tomorrow.

3 Aussies on the final podiums with the other classifications, dunno if that's been done before.

 

[eth-dog]

Great stage for riders with Irish surnames. I feel like RBH losing riders blunted the pace on the final climb.
What a ride from O'Connor to hang on to second. Third at worst if he doesn't crash. Paret-Peintre yesterday and Gall today have been absolutely brilliant
All up to him tomorrow.

Yep. He should podium from here.

Eddie could get top 10 still

 

[eth-dog]

Gonna compare the ITT results between BOC, Mas and Carapaz H2H from 2021 till now:

BOC vs Mas:

1. Mas +13" (12 km)
2. O'Connor +18" (10 km)
3. O'Connor +1'59" (31 km)
4. O'Connor +8" (12 km)
5. Mas +2" (31 km)
6. Mas +6" (13 km)
7. O'Connor +8" (32 km)
8. Mas +11" (31 km)
9. Mas +5" (27 km)
10. O'Connor +46" (16 km)
11. Mas +21" (18 km)

BOC vs Carapaz:

1. Carapaz +12" (12 km)
2. O'Connor +36" (10km)
3. O'Connor +1'03 (24 km)
4. O'Connor +1'58" (31 km)
5. O'Connor +2'54 (31 km)
6. Carapaz +31" (31 km)
7. Carapaz +12" (27 km)
8. Carapaz +53" (18 km)

Mas vs Carapaz:

1. Mas +1" (12 km)
2. Mas +4'17" (34 km)
3. Mas +2" (25 km)
4. Mas +5" (5 km)
5. Mas +26" (15 km)
6. Mas +18" (10 km)
7. Carapaz +1" (31 km)
8. Mas +3'02" (31 km)
9. Carapaz +22" (14 km)
10. Mas +7" (7 km)
11. Carapaz +20" (31 km)
12. Carapaz +7" (27 km)
13. Carapaz +32" (18 km)

So Ben and Enric have basically been 50/50 the past few years and barring a couple of blowouts to Ben been very even, so who finishes ahead there is anyone's guess. Most of Carapaz's wins against both are in 2021 so both have held some good form over him. I think we see Mas and O'Connor on the podium, I think Carapaz is too far back to catch either.

 

[Vader]

It would be interesting to know the context of those TTs. For example, were they flat, hilly, or straight up a mountain? Were they racing for position, or just going through the motions (having lost time on previous stages)?

This TT is 24km, flat as a pancake, with all 3 riders well motivated by the prospect of a podium finish.

Don't worry, I don't expect you to answer those questions. You've already gone above and beyond with the analysis you provided. What I am asking would be nice to know, but it's entirely unreasonable for me to be asking it.

I suspect it's been a while since Carapaz, in particular, has done a TT at full gas. There's little motivation to push when you're 30+ minutes down on GC, and not a TT specialist trying for the stage win.

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[Vader]

They'll be back next year when Dr Richard Freeman's suspension ends.

They really haven't been the same since Team GB took away their keys to the drugs cabinet.

 

[eth-dog]

It would be interesting to know the context of those TTs. For example, were they flat, hilly, or straight up a mountain? Were they racing for position, or just going through the motions (having lost time on previous stages)?

This TT is 24km, flat as a pancake, with all 3 riders well motivated by the prospect of a podium finish.

Don't worry, I don't expect you to answer those questions. You've already gone above and beyond with the analysis you provided. What I am asking would be nice to know, but it's entirely unreasonable for me to be asking it.

I suspect it's been a while since Carapaz, in particular, has done a TT at full gas. There's little motivation to push when you're 30+ minutes down on GC, and not a TT specialist trying for the stage win.

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The 24 km one where Ben won by a minute is the closest for me in context. Ben was ~15 seconds down and Carapaz was 9th on GC heading into the second last stage and a very similar profile

 

[Orange Agent]

I backing Ben to beat both of them tonight. Decathlon on a better setup this year than the AG2R equipment.