anyone know of a 2014 ladder predictor tool anywhere?
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Ladder after five rounds
- Thread starter Suma Magic
- Start date
- Tagged users None
There seems to be a few ladder predicting tools in this thread.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
Adelaide.
Tough first three games and i feel these 5 games are going to dictate how we do this season.
Geelong: i'm going to go 50/50, yes, i'm aware that the Cattery hasn't been the best ground for us but if we are to make a statement about this season, this is the game. If we come out firing, anything could happen.
Port: Can't tip a derby to be anything other then 50/50. Drawing first blood at the oval is important and again, must win for both sides to help set up their season as both are pushing for finals.
Sydney: 30/70 A gametype that has evolved to give us a lot of trouble from arguably the masters of the style, we got belted last season so again, going to need to be in top form to get points here, or Sydney to be way off.
Saints: 90/10 First easy game on paper, Saints are in rebuild mode.
Giants 90/10 Can't see GWS being much of a threat here, again an easy game on paper.
0/5 Failure. We are in trouble this season
1/4 Failure
2/3 Lowest i'm willing to accept as a pass. Going to be fighting for the lower parts the 8
3/2 Pass, likewise, in a good position to make the 8
4/1 Great really should be looking at top 4
5/0 Unbelievable likewise.
All in all, going to go for 3/2
Tough first three games and i feel these 5 games are going to dictate how we do this season.
Geelong: i'm going to go 50/50, yes, i'm aware that the Cattery hasn't been the best ground for us but if we are to make a statement about this season, this is the game. If we come out firing, anything could happen.
Port: Can't tip a derby to be anything other then 50/50. Drawing first blood at the oval is important and again, must win for both sides to help set up their season as both are pushing for finals.
Sydney: 30/70 A gametype that has evolved to give us a lot of trouble from arguably the masters of the style, we got belted last season so again, going to need to be in top form to get points here, or Sydney to be way off.
Saints: 90/10 First easy game on paper, Saints are in rebuild mode.
Giants 90/10 Can't see GWS being much of a threat here, again an easy game on paper.
0/5 Failure. We are in trouble this season
1/4 Failure
2/3 Lowest i'm willing to accept as a pass. Going to be fighting for the lower parts the 8
3/2 Pass, likewise, in a good position to make the 8
4/1 Great really should be looking at top 4
5/0 Unbelievable likewise.
All in all, going to go for 3/2
I'm not sure we will be 0-5 as the article has stated, last year we didn't start very well which cost us in the end, I think a pass mark would be 2 wins and 3 would be a great start with something to build on.
The Hawthorn game in Round 1 interesting me the most, historically we haven't played well down there with our last win coming in 2009 I believe, but Hawthorn I think will be down on what their best 22 was in the Grand Final, we have had the earlier start to the pre season but it will still be a big ask due to the conditions that can be encountered down at Aurora.
Geelong I think is a winnable game, last year we played pretty well against them and we're at home, not penciled in by any means but I think we should be very competitive.
Gold Coast, as above, in past Q-Clashes we haven't played to our full potential at Metricon but we've never lost there, the games have usually been a bit of a scrap but it's a day game this year so it might be a bit cleaner.
Port - Should be able to compete, the past few seasons we've played well against Port but it's at Adelaide Oval so it will be interesting to see. Went down by 9(?) at AAMI last year coming off a Darwin trip, may be some spite with the Polec factor and also Port wearing their '04 premiership jumper + Shaun Hart now there, early tip for match of the round.
Richmond - Interesting, we haven't beaten Richmond in a while but with Leppitsch now coach it is some tactical insight the team has never had before. At home and that advantage needs to count.
Getting 2 wins out of that would be handy and like I said 3 would be excellent but we will have to be playing very well to win, but it's definitely achievable.
The Hawthorn game in Round 1 interesting me the most, historically we haven't played well down there with our last win coming in 2009 I believe, but Hawthorn I think will be down on what their best 22 was in the Grand Final, we have had the earlier start to the pre season but it will still be a big ask due to the conditions that can be encountered down at Aurora.
Geelong I think is a winnable game, last year we played pretty well against them and we're at home, not penciled in by any means but I think we should be very competitive.
Gold Coast, as above, in past Q-Clashes we haven't played to our full potential at Metricon but we've never lost there, the games have usually been a bit of a scrap but it's a day game this year so it might be a bit cleaner.
Port - Should be able to compete, the past few seasons we've played well against Port but it's at Adelaide Oval so it will be interesting to see. Went down by 9(?) at AAMI last year coming off a Darwin trip, may be some spite with the Polec factor and also Port wearing their '04 premiership jumper + Shaun Hart now there, early tip for match of the round.
Richmond - Interesting, we haven't beaten Richmond in a while but with Leppitsch now coach it is some tactical insight the team has never had before. At home and that advantage needs to count.
Getting 2 wins out of that would be handy and like I said 3 would be excellent but we will have to be playing very well to win, but it's definitely achievable.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Pretty lame comparison really.
Sure, improve and stuff, and I think you will. But does Brisbane have more heart than Port and Richmond, two sides which beat Brisbane last year and made the finals while Brisbane didn't? The problem with Leuenberger is that he's not a bad ruckman, but Brisbane was 12th in hitouts, 14th in least opponent hitouts and 13th in hitouts differential, and you just traded out Longer for West, who isn't a massive improvement. So the problems don't just lie in your midfield, but also your ruck division. I also think Port and Richmond have better forwardlines which help generating scores. In 2013, Brisbane's highest goal scorer was an aging Brown, the second was Zorko who is a midget trying to be a midfielder, the third was Josh Green. You need to find some reliable goal scorers, as well as some KPFs if you're going to try and kick a score. You know how Carlton's KPF group is constantly bagged? Brisbane's KPF group is similarly bad.
Carlton's fixture overall isn't that easy but its packed full with "blockbusters". Carlton playing the Hawks at the G and Cats twice at Etihad is refreshing compared to the usual match up against Richmond.
Just for the first 5 games though....
1st game against Port I would say would be about 70/30 in favour in of Carlton due to Etihad been Port's bogey ground and Carlton's midfield matching up well against Port. Not completely disregarding the chance of a Port win since rd 1 always has a few surprises though. Port are quite talented though and their team will be just as confident of pulling off a win as their supporters are.
2nd game against Richmond would be about 50/50. We are a bogey team to Richmond but they are a talented team that are on the up. Richmond are a better side then us on the outside but we should be able to bully them at the stoppages with our mature/bigger bodies and Jamison has the wood on Riewoldt. Thomas, Gibbs, Murphy and Judd ( v Cotchin, Martin, Conca and Delidio should be great fun to watch. Expect Carazzo or Curnow to tag Cotchin while Gibbs will go head to head against Martin again. Also looking forward to see what the Richmond board come up with for the unofficial preview again.
3rd game against Essendon is going to be tough with Essendon confident after their last two wins against us where they stole the game although I think Carlton will be keen for redemption. Last year they took advantage of our lack of run and inaccurate goal kicking to run over the top of us. A fit Murphy and Thomas will help immensely in this regard though and I still think this will be a 50/50 game since Essendon are a well rounded and talented team but we have the quality to match them in any area of the ground. The coaching battle will be crucial between Malthouse and Thompson since both coaches will be trying to get the best possible match ups.
4th game against Melbourne doesn't need too much commentary since Melbourne's and Roos record against Carlton and Malthouse respectively is atrocious. Carlton V Melbourne games in the past have been incredibly lifeless ( less fun to watch then our losses) and I think Carton will win this easily.
5th against the Bulldogs is a major danger game for all sorts of reasons. Bulldogs love playing Carlton and their past history against us includes games where they ruined our top four chances(2011) and finals chances (2013). Their senior brigade love playing Carlton and their inside mids match up quite well against us at Etihad. I'd say we are about 60/40 though since the inclusion of Everitt, Thomas plus upcoming youth allows the Blues to hurt the Bulldogs on the outside in a way that weren't capable of before. This game will be decided in the midfield and Carlton will hope that the inclusion of a fit Murphy,Bell, Gibbs and Thomas to the midfield will tip the game in our favour. The Bulldogs team and fans will be confident of a win against us though.
I'd say that 4 Wins would be the most likely result although 3 wins wouldn't shock me. 2 Wins would be incredibly disappointing since all 5 of these teams are beatable. However I expect every game to be close either way ( 20 points at most) except for the Melbourne game.
Just for the first 5 games though....
1st game against Port I would say would be about 70/30 in favour in of Carlton due to Etihad been Port's bogey ground and Carlton's midfield matching up well against Port. Not completely disregarding the chance of a Port win since rd 1 always has a few surprises though. Port are quite talented though and their team will be just as confident of pulling off a win as their supporters are.
2nd game against Richmond would be about 50/50. We are a bogey team to Richmond but they are a talented team that are on the up. Richmond are a better side then us on the outside but we should be able to bully them at the stoppages with our mature/bigger bodies and Jamison has the wood on Riewoldt. Thomas, Gibbs, Murphy and Judd ( v Cotchin, Martin, Conca and Delidio should be great fun to watch. Expect Carazzo or Curnow to tag Cotchin while Gibbs will go head to head against Martin again. Also looking forward to see what the Richmond board come up with for the unofficial preview again.
3rd game against Essendon is going to be tough with Essendon confident after their last two wins against us where they stole the game although I think Carlton will be keen for redemption. Last year they took advantage of our lack of run and inaccurate goal kicking to run over the top of us. A fit Murphy and Thomas will help immensely in this regard though and I still think this will be a 50/50 game since Essendon are a well rounded and talented team but we have the quality to match them in any area of the ground. The coaching battle will be crucial between Malthouse and Thompson since both coaches will be trying to get the best possible match ups.
4th game against Melbourne doesn't need too much commentary since Melbourne's and Roos record against Carlton and Malthouse respectively is atrocious. Carlton V Melbourne games in the past have been incredibly lifeless ( less fun to watch then our losses) and I think Carton will win this easily.
5th against the Bulldogs is a major danger game for all sorts of reasons. Bulldogs love playing Carlton and their past history against us includes games where they ruined our top four chances(2011) and finals chances (2013). Their senior brigade love playing Carlton and their inside mids match up quite well against us at Etihad. I'd say we are about 60/40 though since the inclusion of Everitt, Thomas plus upcoming youth allows the Blues to hurt the Bulldogs on the outside in a way that weren't capable of before. This game will be decided in the midfield and Carlton will hope that the inclusion of a fit Murphy,Bell, Gibbs and Thomas to the midfield will tip the game in our favour. The Bulldogs team and fans will be confident of a win against us though.
I'd say that 4 Wins would be the most likely result although 3 wins wouldn't shock me. 2 Wins would be incredibly disappointing since all 5 of these teams are beatable. However I expect every game to be close either way ( 20 points at most) except for the Melbourne game.
- Apr 15, 2013
- 14,353
- 43,739
- AFL Club
- Richmond
I'd agree with that.
I think Melbourne could be 3-2 or even 4-1 after 5
I don't think the points you have made are quiet valid.
There has been alot of bad stuff said abbot Brisbane but not many will say we have problems with our ruck. You look at those stats for hitouts, they aren't flattering but its simply a quantitative analysis which does not paint the whole picture. Leuenberger for a limited pre season was brilliant last year, I would say he would be in the Top 5 ruckmen in the league. But his style isn't like a Minson or Goldstein where they win masses of hitouts, Leuy might get say 10 less but most of the time the ball is delieverd straight to a teammate or it is positioned well - that's not to say Minson and Goldstein aren't effective but just different styles. And no, hitouts to advantage still does not measure the quality of a hitout, one hitout to advantage might get a kick from the middle, the other might lead directly to a goal, that quality cannot be measured by a stat, only by witnessing it. It's very much quality over quantity even though Leuy i think averaged around 28 a game last season.
Also I think Longer played about 5 games in 2013, it seems he obviously couldn't play a role as he was only a second year player, West should be able to as it looks like we will be playing two ruckmen.
As for goal scorers, all the players you mentioned are reliable, Brown averaged about 2 a game, Zorko 1.4 as a goal kicking midfielder and Green the same as a developing player and someone who was in and out of the side I think he did pretty well. Including a decent return from our midfield group in goals I think we had a pretty good spread while obviously still looking to improve. We also have a multitude of KPF's in development, none are number 1 draft picks or mini draft selections but that doesn't mean they cannot succeed and become great players.
Also, I'm not sure the game really demands as much from a KPF as it has in the past, it's always good to have but Fremantle were extremely successful in 2013 without Pavlich, he obviously steps up when needed but there is alot less emphasis and reliance on him for Fremantle to win games. Sydney in 2012 didn't have a huge reliance on a KPF, as compared to say Hawthorn who had the Buddy-Roughead combo. Times have obviously changed for both these sides now but I think a steady progression with any forwardline that works can be successful.
If you are reading a form guide, you go off the last 5 starts.
Brisbane Lions
Win over St Kilda (home)
Close loss to Richmond (away)
Win over GWS (home)
Win over Bulldogs (home)
1 point loss to Geelong (away)
That form reads pretty good to me, I would be giving them a chance to be competitive, however I wouldn't be surprised if they were 0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 3-2. 4-1 and 5-0 would be surprising.
Brisbane Lions
Win over St Kilda (home)
Close loss to Richmond (away)
Win over GWS (home)
Win over Bulldogs (home)
1 point loss to Geelong (away)
That form reads pretty good to me, I would be giving them a chance to be competitive, however I wouldn't be surprised if they were 0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 3-2. 4-1 and 5-0 would be surprising.
- Sep 16, 2006
- 36,298
- 36,347
- AFL Club
- West Coast
This is the best post I have seen on Bigfooty
- Sep 16, 2006
- 36,298
- 36,347
- AFL Club
- West Coast
We'll be 3-2 IMO
Bulldogs (H): 50/50, will either lose this game or the Port game
Melbourne (A): Win
St. Kilda (H): Win
Geelong (A): lol lose
Port (H): 50/50 will either lose this game or the Dogs game
Bulldogs (H): 50/50, will either lose this game or the Port game
Melbourne (A): Win
St. Kilda (H): Win
Geelong (A): lol lose
Port (H): 50/50 will either lose this game or the Dogs game
This time last year a lot of people had Essendon, Port and even Geelong going 1-4, and that would have been hard to argue with. All three ended up 5-0.
Similarly, who had WCE going 1-4, or Adelaide at 2-3?
There's probably only a couple of teams you can accurately pick, but this thread will definitely be good for a chuckle come Easter.
Similarly, who had WCE going 1-4, or Adelaide at 2-3?
There's probably only a couple of teams you can accurately pick, but this thread will definitely be good for a chuckle come Easter.
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 24,972
- 65,843
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
It's not really great form once you really look close though...
- 3 wins against 3 of the 4 bottom sides at home.
- You describe the 23pt loss to Richmond as "close" but not the 7pt win over the Bulldogs
- A 1pt loss to Geelong in what was a dead rubber for them and still saw them have 11 more scoring shots
I believe that Brisbane game showed how fragile Geelong were leading into the finals though.
- Aug 17, 2012
- 13,975
- 20,909
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Ah gotta love ignorant comments like this.
Not really. They were playing for a home final.
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 24,972
- 65,843
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
They certainly weren't the Geelong we've come to know over the past 6 years.
If you're going to call someone out as ignorant you're going to want to be pretty bloody sure you're right.
Unfortunately for you, you're wrong...
Geelong were sitting 2nd on the ladder with 68pts prior to the game. Freo on 66.
Fremantle played St Kilda starting 25 minutes prior to the Geelong v Brisbane game.
Geelong would've got word and known at 3 quarter time that the Saints had it beyond doubt.
At which point it was a dead rubber for Geelong and the last quarter meant practically nothing to them.
R1 - North vs. Essendon - by 30pts
R2 - Bulldogs vs. North - by 51pts
R3 - North vs. Port - by 41pts
R4 - Sydney vs. North - by 33pts
R5 - Collingwood vs. North - by 10pts
I'm tipping 4-1
2014 = Year of the roo
R2 - Bulldogs vs. North - by 51pts
R3 - North vs. Port - by 41pts
R4 - Sydney vs. North - by 33pts
R5 - Collingwood vs. North - by 10pts
I'm tipping 4-1
2014 = Year of the roo
90/10 against us at Etihad (where you haven't beaten us in almost 8 years), after we're a good chance of having won 2 of our first 3 games and 4 of our last 5 (if you take in the last couple of last year, which we won convincingly at home)? I take it you think you guys are going to be pretty damn good this year if you think we're only a 10% chance of winning that game at home?
Gone Critical
Moderator
- Moderator
- #174
I know this is a common perception re Collingwood for 2014 but I still don't understand it. Shaw is the big loss from the team that played in 2013. Thomas, Didak, Krak, Jolly etc are much less so as none of those had significant game time in 2013. On the plus side however Adams give some compensation for the Shaw loss and Fasalo, Toovey, Beams, Keefe, Ball, Young and Grundy all of whom missed significant parts of 2013 are back. Add White and the top end draft picks of the last 2 seasons and I see little reason to think Collingwood will slip compared to how we performed in 2013. With a more settled side and less injuries we should be improving considerably on 2013.
I didn't say that Leuenberger was a bad ruckman. If he is more quality than quantity he'll need a backup ruckman and I don't think adding West solves the problem completely.
Are they? Brown averages 32 goals per season over the past three seasons which isn't much. At 32, with injury problems (hasn't played a full season since 2009) you wouldn't say his output will rise. Zorko and Green are pinch hitters, you can't rely upon them to kick a winning score every week.
The primary conversation here is whether Brisbane will improve in 2014, especially whether they'll improve enough to beat Port and Richmond. So this is a fairly immediate conversation in terms of time, so long term planning is great, but kinda irrelevant.
I disagree. Long kicking and contested marking is coming back in vogue. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-05-03/the-inquirer-back-to-the-future
As for Sydney, given they recruited Tippett and Franklin, I doubt they're a good example of a club rejecting the tall KPP. One of the best ways to bust a zone is having a few talls which are hard to match up on. At the moment Brisbane have an aging Brown and a few bits and pieces.
Similar threads
