Preview LIONS vs PORT, GABBA, ROUND 3 2019

[Sausages]

VS ​

This is a preview in two parts.

This first part is the more serious effort and features the usual assortment of names, stats, amateur tactical assessments and so forth.

The second part is some media to reflect on


PART ONE

So, here we are - Round 3, back at the Gabba. Undefeated. Second on the ladder, after seeing off the injured premier and a North outfit returning from Perth after copping a hiding. Of the games this weekend, this game is certainly in the top three. Both teams on 2 - 0, modern day rivals and often providing close games. Should be a ripper. Port got over Melbourne in Round 1 and then struggled past Carlton. The win against Melbourne was celebrated - but perhaps there's a different perspective on that now, given Melbourne's Round 2 hammering by Geelong.

Last year, we travelled to Port in Round 3 as well. They were undefeated and we hadn't won a game. We lost by 5 points, one of a number of close matches we lost last year. Port had a good year up until the last 2 months or so, then fell off a cliff. Neither side played finals, something which hurt Port far more than us in the wash-up of the season. This year, Port have definite expectations of finals, whereas we are still on the "one week at a time, incremental improvement" mantra that is serving us so well. Whether either side makes the 8 is of course yet to be determined - but the lure of being 3 - 0 will be strong for both teams.

GAME PLAN - PORT

Port have been effective around the stoppages and efficient in moving the ball out of congestion. Their forwards like to lead up the ground and they have decent rebound out of defence. Their ruck department is strong and mobile, but don't offer much up forward. They have some weaknesses, which I shall look at in a moment. They have some injury concerns (Watts is the heaviest loss), and a look at the proposed line up suggests something like this:

B Hamish Hartlett, Tom Clurey, Dan Houston
HB Ryan Burton, Tom Jonas, Dougal Howard
C Steven Motlop, Tom Rockliff, Xavier Duursma
HF Travis Boak, Justin Westhoff, Brad Ebert
F Robbie Gray, Todd Marshall, Zak Butters
FOL Scott Lycett, Ollie Wines, Willem Drew
I/C Sam Powell-Pepper, Paddy Ryder, Connor Rozee, Darcy Byrne-Jones


Across the middle, Rockliff leads all comers. He's averaging 40 disposals per game, an efficiency of 70% and 8 clearances per game. Pretty tidy.

Motlop and Duursma, in contrast, are running at 50% of his disposals (20 and 19) per game, and efficiencies of 68% (Motlop) and 79% (Duursma). Only Duursma has registered clearance stats (1 centre, 3 stoppage) - Motlop is an attacking weapon, rather than a ball winner.

Lycett and Drew are running at 18 and 23 (disposals) with 7 and 4 for clearances respectively. Wines hasn't played a senior game this year, but racked up a whole bunch of possessions last year and averaged 26 disposals and 6 clearances a game. Handy.
Sam Powell-Pepper needs a mention, as his ability to find the ball is good (20 disposals per game) - but his efficiency is letting him down (sitting at 63%).

So, you can see from that how much work Rockliff is doing - virtually double the numbers of the other midfielders.

Defensively, Burton, Houston and Clurey are the ones bringing the ball out of the D50 - the loss of Watts really hurts here, as he was leading this stat for Port. So, they'll need someone to pick up his 6 rebound 50 average. None of their defenders are marking defenders - all 3 of the likely fullback line are taking at most 1/game. Spoil it, and run it out. Their halfback line is much the same - few defensive marks, but rather spoil, crumb and kick/handpass it out.

Up forward, Rockliff, Boak and Ebert are leading the way with the I50 stats - but, like the defence, they take few contested marks up forward.
Westhoff is their main marking target, taking 3 a game, but these are almost exclusively on the lead.
Gray, Ebert and Rozee are a little further back with I50 marks with an average of 1.5/game. Even the ruckmen (Lycett and Ryder) don't give much in this area. But, all 6 of their HF/FWD line players can create a contest and then crumb from that contest - Gray and Ebert in particular we know are good in this area and have the clearance stats (6/game) to back that up.
Ebert and Westhoff lead their goals tally, with 4 and 5 respectively.

So - one midfielder doing significantly more than anyone else, no intercept marking defenders and no contested marking forwards. You can see from that, that what they ARE good at doing is creating a contest, bringing the ball to ground and then running/disposing of the ball up the field to a leading forward. But, if you limit Rockliff's impact, they are short 20+ possessions (we ain't gonna keep him to 0 ) How AFL ready Wines is, we don't know - but he is quality, no question. Is he going to make up for a quiet Rockliff though?

We all know our strengths, but here's a few things to ponder:

Andrews is averaging 16 1%'ers (spoils, knock-ons etc) per game - 6 more than the best on the Port defense.
McInerney has the capacity to go forward and take contested grabs, as he did against North.
Hodge, Witherden and Andrews all average in excess of 90% efficiency - only ONE Port player is in that bracket (Amon, injured).
Cameron and McCarthy are leading the way in goals for us, scoring 7 and 6 respectively - and Cameron has similar numbers to Westhoff as far as marks inside 50 go (3/game).
Neale is almost at Rockliff numbers (36 disposals per game) but is running at 82% efficiency (compared to Rockliff's 70%).
Lyons, McCluggage and Zorko lead the way with tackles for us, averaging about 5/game.
Robinson and Bastinac are our shutdown players - expect one of those to go to Rockliff if he starts doing damage (like they did to Hall today).

FINAL ANALYSIS

It's hard to see Port beating us, assuming we put in a solid 4 quarter effort. We have more effective disposers of the ball, better marking targets up forward and defenders who can spoil as good as, if not better than, anyone else in the league. Keep Rockliff quiet and they lose a SIGNIFICANT amount of drive around the contests, out the back half and all the way into F50 entries. Wines will be underdone, but is quality so we need to conscious of that. We also need to be aware of the leading forwards they have, especially Westhoff and limit the space in front of him. When Ebert/Boak/Gray are crumbing the ball up forward, we need our defenders to TACKLE AND MAKE THE TACKLE STICK.

What can undo us, is, as we have been saying all week leading into Round 2 - our mental application. If we don't come switched on and STAY switched on, Port can hurt us. And, let's face it - Port love being written off, the whole "backs-to-the-wall" mentality often drives them to good performances. But, if Fagan, the other coaches and most importantly the senior players all keep the young guys focused - I think we'll win and win well.

Lions by 6 goals.


PART 2




RAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWR

 

[iBeng]

Robinson to absolutely bathe Rockliff out of it?

Or do we want his cheap scab disposals to rack up so he can have 40+ touches in a 5 goal loss?

 

[M Malice]

That is right up there among the top echelon of previews I have read Sos.

AND what about the you tube video you produced, that level of technological wizardry is beyond my aged comprehension.

 

[Sausages]

Further to what I have posted above, I'd like for you all to consider the following:

In 1993, the Dons won the flag. Lauded as 'the Baby Bombers', the team featured an array of soon to be stars. I researched some stats on that team and other more recent premiers, and present these numbers (current at the START OF THE SEASON):

Premiers 1993 - Essendon - average age:22.5, average games: 38.9

Premiers 2008 - Hawthorn - average age: 22.7, average games: 50.9

Premiers 2010 - Pies - average age: 23, average games: 61

Premiers 2016 - Doggies - average age: 23.6, average games: 57.2

Premiers 2017 - Tiges - average age: 24, average games: 62.5

Premiers 2018 - Eagles - average age: 23.9, average games: 63.9


LIONS 2019 - average age: 23.5, average games: 55.4

 

[jumpstart]

Good work Sausages. It should be a tough encounter. I don't see the Lions getting in the top eight this year. Not enough depth. But you never know. If we lose one of Harris Andrews, Lachie Neale or Charlie Cameron or all three for extended periods of time we will struggle. As long as the players ( and their managers ) want to play for the club, it should be a much more enjoyable next decade than the previous one.

Fagan is a great mentor and confidante but not the best football coach. Much better life coach. Having Hodge out their certainly helps. He knows it is his last season on field. His brain is fast but his body is slow. If he can manage to finish this season it will be a huge positive for the club. Future assistant coach. Amazing that he has lasted so long compared to the athletic types such as Judd and Ball. He even said paraphrasing "A (relation) said that fancy the slow fat one has lasted the longest".

Here's to the improvement of the Brisbane Lions Football Club.

 

[acuguy]

Port's forward line will be an interesting match up back line. Marashall plays as their tall, but he is extremely mobile, assuming Walker goes to him? Ebert, Gray, Rozee and Powell Pepper/Boak all play as mobile mid to small sized forwards. Westhoff just goes wherever he wants and works his way back to the forward line, i assume Gardiner gets Westhoff up the ground and Andrews gets him when he rolls deep forward. Ebert and Gray are going to cause us some issues. Can't see any natural match ups.

In saying that, looking forward to 25 thousand lions supporters at the game on Saturday. Surely there will be a few 3 game memberships sold this week.

 

[Sausages]

Good work Sausages. It should be a tough encounter. I don't see the Lions getting in the top eight this year. Not enough depth. But you never know. If we lose one of Harris Andrews, Lachie Neale or Charlie Cameron or all three for extended periods of time we will struggle. As long as the players ( and their managers ) want to play for the club, it should be a much more enjoyable next decade than the previous one.

Fagan is a great mentor and confidante but not the best football coach. Much better life coach. Having Hodge out their certainly helps. He knows it is his last season on field. His brain is fast but his body is slow. If he can manage to finish this season it will be a huge positive for the club. Future assistant coach. Amazing that he has lasted so long compared to the athletic types such as Judd and Ball. He even said paraphrasing "A (relation) said that fancy the slow fat one has lasted the longest".

Here's to the improvement of the Brisbane Lions Football Club.

I'm not suggesting that the Lions will make the eight - merely that it's possible and our age and experience profile puts us in the picture and that discounting our participation BECAUSE of our age and experience profile is not really relevant anymore, as those numbers suggest (and I'm aware you didn't raise those objections ). To clarify that point, I'm not going to bash the team if they fail to make the finals - it's merely clear, statistically at least, that age and experience are far less of a rationale than they were previously.

Depth is debatable, I agree - the "average players used" stat for flag teams over the past decade is 33. 2 rounds in and we are unchanged, with the possibility that will continue into Round 3. But, the recurring theme is that success comes not just from the brilliance of the players, but their capacity to play within the system. The Dogs used 36+ players in their flag year - and you wouldn't consider that team to have had 36 top liners. What they DID have was a system that every player understood and a team first ethic underpinning that. Whether we have 30-odd players who can each perform their roles well enough to compete at a high enough standard is an unknown - what I think is becoming clear though is that we do have a system and the players have bought into that system.

The coaching question is an interesting one. I'm unsure of what you are referring to exactly when you say "footy" vs "life" coach, but I'm presuming you're talking along the lines of a good tactical operator vs more of a player manager. I don't think the modern footy department needs the Head Coach to have an unparalleled tactical grasp, although I'm sure Fagan knows his stuff. What approach appears to work is having a group of coaches who each bring their relative strengths to the whole model in a complementary way. So long as there is a collective grasp of the issue, be that in pre-match planning or match-day reshuffle, it doesn't really matter who's tactical knowledge is superior - merely that the right decision can be reached and communicated to the players to get the result.

I'm not booking finals tickets just yet But what we are seeing is a definite pattern emerging. Last season we lost about 6-7 games by less than a kick or two. Had even half of those results gone our way, we would be talking about the team playing finals this year, building from an 8-ish win season into a 12-14 win season - 14 wins and you'd be fringe dwelling on the top 4. This year, we've found a level of performance that returns a win rather than a close loss. The level of improvement is clear. How high we can go, remains to be seen - but we aren't very far off having the right stuff in place. A few more wins and the whole finals talk will certainly gain momentum.

 

[Sausages]

Port's forward line will be an interesting match up back line. Marashall plays as their tall, but he is extremely mobile, assuming Walker goes to him? Ebert, Gray, Rozee and Powell Pepper/Boak all play as mobile mid to small sized forwards. Westhoff just goes wherever he wants and works his way back to the forward line, i assume Gardiner gets Westhoff up the ground and Andrews gets him when he rolls deep forward. Ebert and Gray are going to cause us some issues. Can't see any natural match ups.

In saying that, looking forward to 25 thousand lions supporters at the game on Saturday. Surely there will be a few 3 game memberships sold this week.

Yeah - Ebert and Gray - one or both usually cause us problems and I agree we don't have obvious match-ups in place. Walker will probably have to come out but not sure who we'd slot in.

 

[Dav]

Lovely preview there Sausages, best of luck to you and your mob this weekend. Who would have guessed that Brisbane vs Port would be match of the round in Round 3? Will hopefully be another great contest.

 

[M Malice]

Fagan is a great mentor and confidante but not the best football coach. Much better life coach. Having Hodge out their certainly helps. He knows it is his last season on field. His brain is fast but his body is slow. If he can manage to finish this season it will be a huge positive for the club. Future assistant coach. Amazing that he has lasted so long compared to the athletic types such as Judd and Ball. He even said paraphrasing "A (relation) said that fancy the slow fat one has lasted the longest".

Here's to the improvement of the Brisbane Lions Football Club.

Do you mean not "the best" coach as in not the best in the competition or you just don't rate him as a coach?

It's got me dumbfounded how you could come to the latter conclusion if that's the case, he has been the architect along with Noble and Swan in turning this club around, from a joke of the competition into one on the verge of something special on and off field IMO.

Agree with the rest of your post.

 

[dlanod]

In previous years there was a knock on Fagan about him not changing game plans during a game, etc. At the time it was open for debate whether it was because he was trying to get young players to learn the basics correctly when it didn't really matter or if he was just limited.

So far this year we've seen a game plan tailored perfectly to beat the reigning premiers with the unusual step of having our KPFs almost tag their KPDs. We've seen in-game changes to shut down the dominant North midfield by moving Robinson and Bastinac into defensive midfield positions on Higgins/Hall/Polec. We've seen Oscar start games which we wouldn't have tipped at the start of the year.

The evidence so far this year is strongly in favour of Fagan being one of the more tactical coaches in the competition - we just hadn't seen it so far.

 

[M Malice]

I can't see us making any changes unless there are injuries coming out of yesterdays game. If Cam Rayner's corkie is worse than first thought I'd bring in Tom Cutler, or others to consider would be Cedric Cox, Lewy Taylor and Allen Christensen.

Interesting that Cedric kicked 3 goals in the NEAFL practice match yesterday, he has mostly played back in his career so far, for those there did he play forward this week? IMO he could make a good pressure small forward, got the attributes for it.

 

[jumpstart]

Do you mean not "the best" coach as in not the best in the competition or you just don't rate him as a coach?

It's got me dumbfounded how you could come to the latter conclusion if that's the case, he has been the architect along with Noble and Swan in turning this club around, from a joke of the competition into one on the verge of something special on and off field IMO.

Agree with the rest of your post.

Just not the best in the competition for tactical nous or game day analysis. We live in a new century though where you have lots of other people helping out. Unlike before when the coach was the focal point of everything on field.

 

[M Malice]

Just not the best in the competition for tactical nous or game day analysis. We live in a new century though where you have lots of other people helping out. Unlike before when the coach was the focal point of everything on field.

Got it. Yes not up there with Clarkson.............yet, although he did teach Clarkson everything he knows.

**** was and is the perfect type of coach for us.

 

[Nunez]

Do you mean not "the best" coach as in not the best in the competition or you just don't rate him as a coach?

It's got me dumbfounded how you could come to the latter conclusion if that's the case, he has been the architect along with Noble and Swan in turning this club around, from a joke of the competition into one on the verge of something special on and off field IMO.

Agree with the rest of your post.

Yeah it's a bit mindboggling. Fagan has had us on an upward trajectory and we've started the year undefeated on the back of a solid tactical structure amongst other things.

 

[Nunez]

Snags you've put together one hell of a preview, and I'm not just saying that as a bias star wars fan.

Top notch work.

 

[Sausages]

Snags you've put together one hell of a preview, and I'm not just saying that as a bias star wars fan.

Top notch work.

Thanks mate - I wasn't going to post it until today, but at about 11PM last night I thought...."Wouldn't it be nice for people to have something to read when they wake up in the morning?" - and when the answer was "Yes, Sausages, it would"...well, TEAM FIRST MENTALITY KICKED IN

 

[Nunez]

After watching the replay, I'm convinced we need to look at trialing Adams as a forward when he is fit. I feel like we're a senior tall short and it he could come in and take marks/crash packs then I could see things seriously opening up for someone like Hipwood. I think all three of Adams, Hipwood and McStay could play forward but you can't drop Oscar so I'm not sure how we'd be able to fit all three.

 

[M Malice]

After watching the replay, I'm convinced we need to look at trialing Adams as a forward when he is fit. I feel like we're a senior tall short and it he could come in and take marks/crash packs then I could see things seriously opening up for someone like Hipwood. I think all three of Adams, Hipwood and McStay could play forward but you can't drop Oscar so I'm not sure how we'd be able to fit all three.

I'd definitely be for that, give Hippy a spell in the NEAFL would be my out unless he tears it up over the next month or so.

 

[Sausages]

I'd definitely be for that, give Hippy a spell in the NEAFL would be my out unless he tears it up over the next month or so.

I could maybe second that - backed Hip in our goal kicking comp on the weekend and he did the job for me, so I have no burning issue

The other move might be McStay replacing Walker down back and then bringing Adams in - but Walker is a pretty solid contributor so it might be hard to justify that one.

It's a tough one - Hip I think could develop into a real weapon for us and he's clearly pushing further up the ground. It's just more about our overall game style - are we gonna boot it long to a contesting forward or do we want "Fagan's Fields" and have the forwards run into a vacant 50?

 

[L Dizz]

After watching the replay, I'm convinced we need to look at trialing Adams as a forward when he is fit. I feel like we're a senior tall short and it he could come in and take marks/crash packs then I could see things seriously opening up for someone like Hipwood. I think all three of Adams, Hipwood and McStay could play forward but you can't drop Oscar so I'm not sure how we'd be able to fit all three.

I think it'd be McStay or Adams in that scenario. O as the deep forward, Hipwood roaming and McStay/Adams as that other marking target, ideally pushing up to the wings.

 

[jackess]

I can't see us making any changes unless there are injuries coming out of yesterdays game. If Cam Rayner's corkie is worse than first thought I'd bring in Tom Cutler, or others to consider would be Cedric Cox, Lewy Taylor and Allen Christensen.

Interesting that Cedric kicked 3 goals in the NEAFL practice match yesterday, he has mostly played back in his career so far, for those there did he play forward this week? IMO he could make a good pressure small forward, got the attributes for it.

From the highlight videos they’ve posted so far it looks like he’s been playin midfield and resting forward.

 

[WCE Wizard]

All the best guys, love watching the Lions, gave my boys a good told belting and now have the goods to finish in the finals. Well done, plus Charlie Cameron such a gun, so glad we got his brother at West Coast.

PS Lachie Neale must have 6 brownlow votes

 

[Sausages]

PS Lachie Neale must have 6 brownlow votes

That's actually a good point Wizard - I hadn't thought of that

 

[3KZ is Football]

Good work Sausages. It should be a tough encounter. I don't see the Lions getting in the top eight this year. Not enough depth. But you never know. If we lose one of Harris Andrews, Lachie Neale or Charlie Cameron or all three for extended periods of time we will struggle. As long as the players ( and their managers ) want to play for the club, it should be a much more enjoyable next decade than the previous one.

Fagan is a great mentor and confidante but not the best football coach. Much better life coach. Having Hodge out their certainly helps. He knows it is his last season on field. His brain is fast but his body is slow. If he can manage to finish this season it will be a huge positive for the club. Future assistant coach. Amazing that he has lasted so long compared to the athletic types such as Judd and Ball. He even said paraphrasing "A (relation) said that fancy the slow fat one has lasted the longest".

Here's to the improvement of the Brisbane Lions Football Club.

Get in the bin! We only have two players on the injury list and plenty of players who were regular senior players now in the reserves.

I do like the last part of your post though!