Traded Luke Jackson [Traded with #44 and #67 to Fremantle for #13, F1 and F2]

[juss]

Yep. How many of the last 20 years drafts would you take the top 3 over Jackson knowing how they turned out? Maybe half a dozen? Take the known over the unknown every time.

Well he hasn't gone on to achieve a great career yet, but assuming he does develop into that, I'm just not clear are you saying in a trade he is worth 1x top 3 pick, or 3 individual top 3 picks?

 

[juss]

Not on those stats.
Jackson is good, has potential to get better, but you guys keep over valuing him. He was average in the finals this year.

Freo will trade fairly, but we can only trade what we have. You will get two firsts, but you won't get a top 5 pick, not two top 10s.

I agree, I was asking the other poster because think that's what he quoted his worth.

 

[Le Grille]

I'd personally take a straight swap of pick 2 for Jackson, but i'd be fully aware that we are up against the odds of drafting a player as good as, or better than Jackosn. But them's the breaks when someone nominates to go home.

Yeah again I’m a neutral and my comments are more about the value I think (not that my opinion matters) . I just think even though most would consider he had a down year being best 22 in a premiership side, rising star as a 20 year old ruck is phenomenal, considering he won’t be at his peak for another 4-5 years he’s definitely worth a high pick.

It’s not that I think anyones trying to undercut him but it more how much I rate him

 

[LBJ6]

Yeah again I’m a neutral and my comments are more about the value I think (not that my opinion matters) . I just think even though most would consider he had a down year being best 22 in a premiership side, rising star as a 20 year old ruck is phenomenal, considering he won’t be at his peak for another 4-5 years he’s definitely worth a high pick.

It’s not that I think anyones trying to undercut him but it more how much I rate him

Yep, you're spot on.

The most entertaining part of this whole process will be the flipping of attitudes on the value of Jackson by whichever supporter base lands him in between the conclusion of the deal and him rocking up to day 1 of training.

 

[JackOutback]

is this the first player both fremantle anbd west coast are genuinely interested the same time? freo was half hearted into tim kelly, anyone else?

It's entirely possible West Coast are only half-heartedly into Jackson, given the cost and where our list is at.

 

[Jibroni]

Looks like WCE are back in the game:

“At this stage Tim, no it’s not,” O’Brien said in response to whether pick No.2 is on the table...“If we get the opportunity to trade for Luke, we can split selections to generate more, we’ve got future selections and there’s player trades.”

O’Brien says that while he and his team are yet to contact Melbourne or Jackson’s management they won’t be “gun shy” in negotiations. “We haven’t spoken to Melbourne yet at all, I’ll contact Tim Lamb in the coming days and start working through that,” O’Brien said. “But we also need to get in front of Luke and his management to find out their position as well and put our case forward to hopefully convince him that we’re the right club to come to.

SEN

 

[GWT6]

Well he hasn't gone on to achieve a great career yet, but assuming he does develop into that, I'm just not clear are you saying in a trade he is worth 1x top 3 pick, or 3 individual top 3 picks?

To clarify - I would take Jackson over picks 1+2+3 in about 2/3rd of the drafts from the last 20 years.

Picks are highly overrated - I saw that as Melbourne tanked and got Cale Morton, Jack Grimes, Jack Watts, Tom Scully, Jack Trengrove, Luke Tapscott, Jordan Gysberts, Sam Blease, James Strauss, and Lucus Cook as top 20 picks over four years.

That's 10 top 20 picks over 4 years. 2x#1, 1x#2, 1x#4 and the rest mid to late first round. Now it can be argued that Melbourne's recruiters were incompetent, but outside of Gysberts none of them were seen as surprise picks at the time.

I'd take Luke Jackson over the entire 10 picks.

 

[Freoforever86]

Pick 2 not on the table but Eagles have “air of confidence” in luring Jackson

I haven't heard the audio (so there might be some editorial license involved), but the write up certainly paints more enthusiasm from WC than suggested

Didn’t sound like it to me.

 

[Freoforever86]

You completely miss the point.

If right now I had the option of keeping Luke Jackson or taking pick 2, I'd keep Luke Jackson.

We know that we are losing him, so I want pick 2.

Not that hard to understand?

Understood fully, but was a funny read and a tongue in cheek response. Settle.
Luckily for your pick 2 is a 50% bust maths, you don’t need to worry about landing pick 2

 

[sexyhunk]

It's entirely possible West Coast are only half-heartedly into Jackson, given the cost and where our list is at.

Nisbett sound he is keen, would have thought he just use the straight bat if they not that interrested.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

Looks like WCE are back in the game:

“At this stage Tim, no it’s not,” O’Brien said in response to whether pick No.2 is on the table...“If we get the opportunity to trade for Luke, we can split selections to generate more, we’ve got future selections and there’s player trades.”

O’Brien says that while he and his team are yet to contact Melbourne or Jackson’s management they won’t be “gun shy” in negotiations. “We haven’t spoken to Melbourne yet at all, I’ll contact Tim Lamb in the coming days and start working through that,” O’Brien said. “But we also need to get in front of Luke and his management to find out their position as well and put our case forward to hopefully convince him that we’re the right club to come to.

SEN

Would be best for Freo long term if WC sell the farm for him imo.

 

[LBJ6]

Understood fully, but was a funny read and a tongue in cheek response. Settle.
Luckily for your pick 2 is a 50% bust maths, you don’t need to worry about landing pick 2

Well the likelihood of a bust goes up every pick you slide down the order, so yeah I'd prefer pick two!

Draft picks as a whole are overrated, which is my point.

 

[Taylor]

Sorry, if a 20 year old your club is offering a 7 year / 900k p.a. contract to isn't worth pick 2, who is?

Knowing that you have a 50% chance of drafting a bust at this pick?

What metric do you use for busts at pick #2? Just the ones Melbourne have selected?

Over 55% of all top ten picks play 100 games.


You have to remember that West Coast will just take him for nothing themselves if they want him. Especially if Logue goes to the PSD to North.

 

[Trav 20]

West Coast have ruled out using pick 2 in a trade. They are desperate for a gun midfielder.

Not quite.

This morning they stated they'd consider splitting the pick.

So not pick 2 directly, but indirectly.

 

[JackOutback]

Well the likelihood of a bust goes up every pick you slide down the order, so yeah I'd prefer pick two!

Draft picks as a whole are overrated, which is my point.

But pick 2 could be anything. It could even be a Luke Jackson.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Can’t see why WCE would even remotely consider it they need mids and lots of them a Ruck should be their last point of call

 

[LBJ6]

What metric do you use for busts at pick #2? Just the ones Melbourne have selected?

Over 55% of all top ten picks play 100 games.
View attachment 1507899

You have to remember that West Coast will just take him for nothing themselves if they want him. Especially if Logue goes to the PSD to North.

I literally named 5/10 from the last 10 judgeable drafts on the previous page.

A 100 game player means absolutely nothing.

And yes, Melbourne's strike rate at pick 2 is 50% as well, in line with the long term trend.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

To clarify - I would take Jackson over picks 1+2+3 in about 2/3rd of the drafts from the last 20 years.

Picks are highly overrated - I saw that as Melbourne tanked and got Cale Morton, Jack Grimes, Jack Watts, Tom Scully, Jack Trengrove, Luke Tapscott, Jordan Gysberts, Sam Blease, James Strauss, and Lucus Cook as top 20 picks over four years.

That's 10 top 20 picks over 4 years. 2x#1, 1x#2, 1x#4 and the rest mid to late first round. Now it can be argued that Melbourne's recruiters were incompetent, but outside of Gysberts none of them were seen as surprise picks at the time.

I'd take Luke Jackson over the entire 10 picks.

POTY

 

[Taylor]

I literally named 5/10 from the last 10 judgeable drafts on the previous page.

A 100 game player means absolutely nothing.

And yes, Melbourne's strike rate at pick 2 is 50% as well, in line with the long term trend.

Just so we are clear here, I don't have any issue with you valuing Jackson at pick #2 and requesting that pick if you were negotiating the deal with West Coast - I predicted it would happen.

Unfortunately West Coast hold all the leverage here. All of it.

 

[Paracleet]

I think the Melbourne fans need to get their heads around the idea although you want West Coast involved to push up the price you don't actually want him to choose them, you'll end up getting less.

 

[JackOutback]

Can’t see why WCE would even remotely consider it they need mids and lots of them a Ruck should be their last point of call

Because NicNat is a year or two from the end and our two young rucks in Bailey Williams and Callum Jamieson are far from a sure thing. The Eagles need players across most lines, with the possible exception of the backline.

 

[Freoforever86]

Well the likelihood of a bust goes up every pick you slide down the order, so yeah I'd prefer pick two!

Draft picks as a whole are overrated, which is my point.

I agree

 

[Tulip]

Remember when Freo traded Lachie Weller for pick two? Good times. Everyone laughed at that one, but we were reminded that he was a teens pick a couple of years earlier and had been pretty promising so the trade wasn't that bad.

 

[Tulip]

Well the likelihood of a bust goes up every pick you slide down the order, so yeah I'd prefer pick two!

Draft picks as a whole are overrated, which is my point.

I've been on this site long enough to remember the last time draft picks were as venerated as they are now. It was for the 09 'super draft'. After the expansion teams came in and drafted badly (particularly GC), and the Hawks were successful trading picks for talent, people really moved away from picks being the panacea. Nice to see we're back there 13 years later.

The Dees knocked back picks 8 and 9 from Port for pick two that year. Port wanted Trengove that much, but so did the Dees.

In the end, Trengove did his foot and played about 90 games whilst the guys Port took, Andrew Moore and John Butcher, played 91 games between them.

Other notable picks from that draft. Morabito at 4, Rohan at 6, Gysberts at 11, Kane Lucas at 12, Christian Howard at 14, Tapscott at 18.

 

[SSwans2011]

I've gotta say, much of this thread is hysterically underrating Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

.

He is already a very good ruck. How many rucks are very good by the time they hit 20? How many rucks players tear up a Grand Final at the age of 19?

Referring to his stats is stupid, because how many rucks are best 22 locks at his age? I can recall Grundy and Nic Nat in the past decade. So that's uhh... 2 of the best rucks of the past decade?

Jackson compares reasonably well to both of them at the same age, despite being stuck behind arguably the best ruck the game has seen (which, in fairness, as was Nic Nat).

It will probably get done for 2 mid-late firsts, and it will be a very good deal for Freo. I have no idea why he is being so ludicrously underrated in here, though. He's going to be a special player.