Gets 3rd in a big photo finish, lucky!
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
March - Daily Punt
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Taking Equator E/W in the last at Rosehill.
Sandown R7- Our Skeeta E/W @$51/$14
- Bishops Castle Win @$9
Sandown R8- Pro Tour Win @$5
- Out Of Coober E/W @$18/$5
Sandown R7- Our Skeeta E/W @$51/$14
- Bishops Castle Win @$9
Sandown R8- Pro Tour Win @$5
- Out Of Coober E/W @$18/$5
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Hate track bias. Ruins day
Steps in Time you little beauty!
Carlton House just run down hurts and thought Hawkspur had little luck in concluding stages never the less $$$
Contrast between today and yesterday could not possibly be any greater. Gotta love the punt.
yaco55
Hall of Famer
Thought that Earthquake looked a bit flat today. The colts and fillies tan similar similar times,though the fillies ran their final 600m half a second quicker. Think the Slipper is wide open.
- May 6, 2012
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Couldn't have had a worse day if I tried. Got smashed, loaded up on IAD (Who HAS to be just running through the motions priming for the QE)
Wen't to back Written and Messene, but my TAB app, and website went to shit and missed the jump both times. Always next week.
Wen't to back Written and Messene, but my TAB app, and website went to shit and missed the jump both times. Always next week.
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In my opinion too many people have too much blind faith in IADD on the back of his runs as a 3yo, who I might add were not even the best of his generation. His run against AJ was very much overrated, she was well below her best that day and IADD simply ran to the level he has in all of his other open aged races, which as a result of circumstance was good enough that day.
All of his other runs in open age have been okay, excuses in some but he has not raced to the level that would be expected of a so called superstar, reason for this he is simply not that good of a horse. He has 2 x high class 3yo performances to his name and the rest of his runs have been nothing that sets him apart from the rest.
I just find it surprising when he doesn't perform to expectations that I continue to hear excuses like he wasn't fit, he was just running through the motions as you have said Pure Footy, I totally disagree, he has been there and ready to win if good enough in both wins this campaign and for mine he has been average.
That's just my opinion and I know a lot would disagree but I couldn't possibly back him with 58ks in a Doncaster (he is heading there now) and I can't see how he beats Carlton House or Silent Achiever in the Queen Elizabeth.
I think this is what stumped a lot of people (me included). Without this win, it's quite easy to see why he hasn't just been cutting a swathe through open age G1's. Not to say it wasn't a good win, but he still only beat Happy Trails and Dear Demi by a length.
Little suspicious when he couldn't win the Chipping Norton first up. Fitness or not, they went to a mile first up because they wanted to win. The question then is if it's not him, then who? With all due respect to the ripping mare Silent Achiever, we know her level already. Carlton House I still think is lengths off his Euro form; will he find it again? Not dropping off Fiorente, but he'd want to be fresh for 10f.
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Look, I thought he was disappointing in the Ranvet, I was ready to get in the queue around the bend, and he just didn't let down with the turn of foot everyone knows he has. That's no disrespect to the other 2 who went super.
Perhaps I am making an excuse for it in the Ranvet, but whether that is justified, well we won't be able to confirm until after the QE. My theory is he'll just explode in the QE. Your theory is he overrated, and that there are several others better than him. I personally think they are both fair assumptions, just stark contrasts. We won't find out who is right until after the race, but I like to stick to my guns, and I already have a ticket it on it in the QE, and I'll back it again now it's odds have drifted slightly.
Also, I'd be utterly shocked if IAD runs in the Doncaster. Wouldn't do the horse any favours going into the big dance.
iluvparis
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I think the performances of IAD show just how even the talent is spread out amonst our WFA performers. Despite Fiornete cleaning up down south, he was a never a dominant winner and only just held off Green Moon before being well held on Saturday (although would be fair to see he probably didn't run his race on the day).
It seems to me we just have a fairly standard bunch of WFA horses at the moment and as a result they take turns winning. Would also explain how a complete donkey was able to win the Cox Plate last year.
It seems to me we just have a fairly standard bunch of WFA horses at the moment and as a result they take turns winning. Would also explain how a complete donkey was able to win the Cox Plate last year.
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http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/baker-keen-to-keep-to-same-path/tabid/83/newsid/18659/default.aspx
MURRAY Baker would prefer to stick to his original campaign plan with It's A Dundeel.
Baker said he would like to progress to the BMW with It's A Dundeel, which finished third behind Silent Achiever in last Saturday's Ranvet Stakes.
He viewed as a "mistake" to switch tack and revert to the Doncaster Mile on route to the $4 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000 m) at Randwick on April 19.
"I think it would be a mistake to run him in the Doncaster with 58 (kg), it would kill him," Baker said.
"I will be happy to stay on the same track. It's worth noting that they weren't winning from off the pace on Saturday."
It's A Dundeel ran similar sectional splits over the final 600 metres as did Silent Achiever - 35.8 seconds.
Baker said he would be as happy to go into the Queen Elizabeth without another run in preference to running in the Doncaster Mile.
"I' m happy with the horse, he came through the race well," he said.
"The vet checked him over yesterday and he was perfect."
Baker will apply blinkers to Atlante in Saturday's Rosehill Guineas after the colt "switched on and off" in the Randwick Guineas.
He said he was happy with the way Atlante ran on well late in the Randwick Guineas to finish sixth behindDissident.
Show The World missed the start in the Randwick Guineas, his first run from a three month spell.
"He's a good staying horse, there is no reason why he should not go alright," Baker said.
MURRAY Baker would prefer to stick to his original campaign plan with It's A Dundeel.
Baker said he would like to progress to the BMW with It's A Dundeel, which finished third behind Silent Achiever in last Saturday's Ranvet Stakes.
He viewed as a "mistake" to switch tack and revert to the Doncaster Mile on route to the $4 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000 m) at Randwick on April 19.
"I think it would be a mistake to run him in the Doncaster with 58 (kg), it would kill him," Baker said.
"I will be happy to stay on the same track. It's worth noting that they weren't winning from off the pace on Saturday."
It's A Dundeel ran similar sectional splits over the final 600 metres as did Silent Achiever - 35.8 seconds.
Baker said he would be as happy to go into the Queen Elizabeth without another run in preference to running in the Doncaster Mile.
"I' m happy with the horse, he came through the race well," he said.
"The vet checked him over yesterday and he was perfect."
Baker will apply blinkers to Atlante in Saturday's Rosehill Guineas after the colt "switched on and off" in the Randwick Guineas.
He said he was happy with the way Atlante ran on well late in the Randwick Guineas to finish sixth behindDissident.
Show The World missed the start in the Randwick Guineas, his first run from a three month spell.
"He's a good staying horse, there is no reason why he should not go alright," Baker said.
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- #420
There was talk yesterday that he would be going to the Doncaster, doesn't look likely now.
I agree you you Iluvparis in that we have a fairly even bunch of horses at the moment, but that is my point and has been for 12 months now, IADD is no better than any of the other horses he is competing against yet he seems to have a huge amount of hype about him within the racing community and bookmakers.
I reckon Messene could very well end up the best horse we have, he hasn't done it at WFA level yet but the numbers he is currently running are superior to our supposed best WFA runners, he still has room to improve also given his limited exposure.
On my ratings the top 4 performances on the day from a raw figures point of view were all in the Ajax, which means Messene was easily the best performance on the day, if he runs to that level with 50kgs on his back in the Doncaster they just won't beat him.
I would be aiming him at the Cox Plate in the Spring.
I agree you you Iluvparis in that we have a fairly even bunch of horses at the moment, but that is my point and has been for 12 months now, IADD is no better than any of the other horses he is competing against yet he seems to have a huge amount of hype about him within the racing community and bookmakers.
I reckon Messene could very well end up the best horse we have, he hasn't done it at WFA level yet but the numbers he is currently running are superior to our supposed best WFA runners, he still has room to improve also given his limited exposure.
On my ratings the top 4 performances on the day from a raw figures point of view were all in the Ajax, which means Messene was easily the best performance on the day, if he runs to that level with 50kgs on his back in the Doncaster they just won't beat him.
I would be aiming him at the Cox Plate in the Spring.
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iluvparis
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Think he gets the hype because when he is on - his style of running makes him look like an absolute freak.
He beat Proisir when he was a massive hype horse (never went on with it) and also Atlantic Jewel (which as you say looks a questionable form race). Put those wins together with one of the easiest AJC Derby wins you'll ever see (against complete walkers) and it is understandable why he is well fancied by the punters.
He has also run some complete shockers to be honest (Vase, Vic Derby, Cox Plate) but for whatever reason these do get ignored. He has actually only won 1 of his last 6 starts! In contrast - a horse like So You Think won 6 of his last 8 before heading overseas and his two defeats (Emirates and Melbourne Cup) were two of the gutsiest defeats you would ever see on an Australian race track.
He beat Proisir when he was a massive hype horse (never went on with it) and also Atlantic Jewel (which as you say looks a questionable form race). Put those wins together with one of the easiest AJC Derby wins you'll ever see (against complete walkers) and it is understandable why he is well fancied by the punters.
He has also run some complete shockers to be honest (Vase, Vic Derby, Cox Plate) but for whatever reason these do get ignored. He has actually only won 1 of his last 6 starts! In contrast - a horse like So You Think won 6 of his last 8 before heading overseas and his two defeats (Emirates and Melbourne Cup) were two of the gutsiest defeats you would ever see on an Australian race track.
yaco55
Hall of Famer
Proisir never went on with it ! - Has been injured and off the scene for 12 months - Proisir is a decent horse, twice just got touched off by IAD in Group 1's, and probably would have won a Group 1, until injury intervened.
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- #423
Just to put his win over AJ into some perspective from a sectionals point of view, in comparison to another winner on the day in Mr Ocerin (a good horse but no star), they both ran slow early sections in their respective races but IADD run almost 10 lengths slower than Mr Ocerin to the 800M point of their race yet his last 800M was only 3 lengths faster, in comparison others in the Underwood not one of his individual 200M splits from the 800M to the pole were the best in the race.
What that says to me is that he was in the right place in the run and due to circumstance (wet track, AJ lengths below her best with her sprint) he was good enough and tough enough to win the race, don't want to take that away from him but it was far from a dominant win where he asserted his authority over his rivals, if McDonald hadn't of chosen to race forward he would have finished out the back and his last 6 starts would have yielded nothing.
You only have to look at all of AJ's other starts to know she under performed but when looking at IADD other 5 starts in the past 12 months he has been okay but not superior to his rivals.
In other news today unfortunately the outstanding mare Appearance has been retired due to injury, she has been good to me this campaign and I would have been backing her again on Saturday, now very keen on Red Tracer.
What that says to me is that he was in the right place in the run and due to circumstance (wet track, AJ lengths below her best with her sprint) he was good enough and tough enough to win the race, don't want to take that away from him but it was far from a dominant win where he asserted his authority over his rivals, if McDonald hadn't of chosen to race forward he would have finished out the back and his last 6 starts would have yielded nothing.
You only have to look at all of AJ's other starts to know she under performed but when looking at IADD other 5 starts in the past 12 months he has been okay but not superior to his rivals.
In other news today unfortunately the outstanding mare Appearance has been retired due to injury, she has been good to me this campaign and I would have been backing her again on Saturday, now very keen on Red Tracer.
Lmao that's incredible if true, because they absolutely WALKED in the Naturalism. Never seen a more farcically run race, although apparently I did in the very next...
Bad run of retirements lately, Appearance, White Sage, lost Bernabeu too.
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Think your being way too harsh on his Vic Derby and Cox plate efforts. Hard to win the derby 18 lengths off the lead, whilst those in front are getting it soft. In the cox plate, he was well underdone, and wide no cover, whilst making contact with PDL for much of the race. His only other 'poor' runs have been a 2nd in the Vase, a 2nd in the chipping norton, and 3rd to a couple of G1 winners in the Ranvet. It's fair enough people think he's overrated, but geez there are a few that under rate it.
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