iluvparis
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Gee, I wonder who trains it?
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Gee, I wonder who trains it?
iluvparis
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Will have to agree to disagree then mate. For a supposed star I thought bouth runs were very ordinary.
I think the performances of IAD show just how even the talent is spread out amonst our WFA performers. Despite Fiornete cleaning up down south, he was a never a dominant winner and only just held off Green Moon before being well held on Saturday (although would be fair to see he probably didn't run his race on the day).
It seems to me we just have a fairly standard bunch of WFA horses at the moment and as a result they take turns winning. Would also explain how a complete donkey was able to win the Cox Plate last year.
Agree with this.
in fact I'd go a step further and say we haven't had an outstanding distance WFA horse for years now
yaco55
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Your love for Waterhouse is unabated. I can't remember many of her good horse getting serious injuries. A bit different to Dad who churned through the horses.
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Boban didn't really improve in winning, he just didn't have Appearance to deal with. Having said that he did run strong sectionals late but he was entitled too given they went slow and he did no work, still not going as well as he was in the Spring for mine and happy to bet around him in the Ryder this week particularly with a wet track likely.
made an amateur mistake today
did one quaddie at mornington for 50% and accidently put #2 in instead of #1 ($11 winner) for race 6
other quaddie is for 10% still alive
could have been alive with 60% on the cards. oh well should still pay a bit if I get it with the $11 winner
did one quaddie at mornington for 50% and accidently put #2 in instead of #1 ($11 winner) for race 6
other quaddie is for 10% still alive
could have been alive with 60% on the cards. oh well should still pay a bit if I get it with the $11 winner
Still alive......would still be looking at 60% if.....
got $68 could have been $410. still up for the day haha
iluvparis
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Can't agree with that at all - rated lengths better than any of his other runs this prep in his last start win.
iluvparis
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Any word on how Gordon Lord Byron has settled in?
If he reproduces his Longchamp and Hong Kong form I think he wins.
If he reproduces his Longchamp and Hong Kong form I think he wins.
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Yeh, I have absolute zero idea about international runners, except for I always pay attention to them in there 2nd australian prep, regardless of previous results. As for this one, 2 placings to Moonlight Cloud seems reasonable form, if he ran anywhere near that then he wins. But why the $26?
iluvparis
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$26 is one of the most ridiculous prices I have ever seen.
Should be single figures.
Should be single figures.
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Agree to disagree but not sure what your ratings are based on, on my overall ratings he did not improve at all, as I said he ran strong sectionals late but was entitled to given the early pace in the race, flattered by the opposition he beat including IADD, if Appearance was there she blows him away again.
Terravista who raced on the same day run the equivalent closing sectionals yet did so after sitting on a stronger tempo, ran a higher rating that Boban on the day.
Terravista ran 6 lengths faster to the 600M mark of their respective races yet Boban's last 600M was only 0.5 lengths better than his, Boban did it at WFA whilst Terravista was -4kgs on WFA but regardless Terravista was still the superior performance on the day.
He is still 2-3 lengths off his Spring form which means he is poisonous odds in my opinion this weekend when those with Spring form around him are all at big odds, Toydini and Sacred Falls (meets him level weights now) for example who were excellent in the Canterbury stakes, the formline that I want to be on in this race.
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He has some terrific speedfigures from the mentioned races but I'm inclined to risk him first up in Australia, we saw what happend to Black Caviar when she traveled. If he beats them I will make it back on him at his next start.
I thought he only virtually just got out of quarantine a week ago, cannot be an ideal prep.
iluvparis
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They basically ignore time which seems to be your primary factor - hence the massive differences. Also shows that you can't just go around making black and white claims such as 'he didn't improve in that race'. I know all rating systems are different but I doubt there would be many that said he didn't improve last time out.
That would obvously explain the difference. I have him improving 5kg's from his second up effort and producing a rating above any of those from last spring apart from his Emirates win. My concern is that at his last two prep's he has only held his form at his 4th start so would only be looking for him to repeat his last start performance.
As such I have him rated alongside Eurozone on weight adjusted ratings in the race.
That would obvously explain the difference. I have him improving 5kg's from his second up effort and producing a rating above any of those from last spring apart from his Emirates win. My concern is that at his last two prep's he has only held his form at his 4th start so would only be looking for him to repeat his last start performance.
As such I have him rated alongside Eurozone on weight adjusted ratings in the race.
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Fair enough, I'm not having a go in any way because there are different ways to successfully do ratings for horse racing but I personally don't know how to get accurate ratings without using times/sectionals as the starting point, they are the only definitive aspect of racing when used correctly, the rest for the most part is opinion and speculation, certainly for any distances under 2400M.
iluvparis
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Playing the devils advocate - I'd argue the time for that race on that particular day is definintive if measured correctly (debatable if this occurs 100% of the time). However, I'd argue cross race comparisons of race times are far from definitive.
The margin of defeat and the weight carried by each horse is also collected definintively.
The margin of defeat and the weight carried by each horse is also collected definintively.
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So your'e from the Don Scott school?
I'm pretty comfortable with my cross race comparisons, I'm not going to sit here and say that its 100% accurate but it is close enough to a point where I'm happy to trust them and bet confidently as a result.
And I use weight carried bench marked against the WFA scale to get to my final ratings, so it is not purely times based but even then with weights there is speculating, you cannot definitively say how much impact weight has on individuals horses.
I'm pretty comfortable with my cross race comparisons, I'm not going to sit here and say that its 100% accurate but it is close enough to a point where I'm happy to trust them and bet confidently as a result.
And I use weight carried bench marked against the WFA scale to get to my final ratings, so it is not purely times based but even then with weights there is speculating, you cannot definitively say how much impact weight has on individuals horses.
iluvparis
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Yup.
On the plus side I'd say there would be a lot less people doing what you are so much more likely to find an edge if it is there. Don Scott school obviously saturated
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Yup.
On the plus side I'd say there would be a lot less people doing what you are so much more likely to find an edge if it is there. Don Scott school obviously saturated
Either way without some form of ratings or method behind your analysis I have no idea how anyone would ever turn a profit on the horses.
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