March - Daily Punt

[rideclutch]

Shoreham EW in the last.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Fiorente was a very good win.

Dundeel will improve dramatically after that run. Will be some great clashes these two heading to the Queen Elizabeth

Lankan let down and sprinted like a superstar. Anyone know the time? That was a crack field I thought and it brained them. Seriously good horse hope it carries on in Sydney.

 

[PureFooty]

Got sucked in with IAD, but wasn't a bad run by any means, Boban was always going to switch it on once Waller declared Moriarty his best chance in the race. I'll be on IAD again next start, had my biggest bet of year on him into solict, but he still owes me no favours. Lanken Rupee sensational, Fiorente was a gift. Can't wait for the Sydney Carnival.

 

[PureFooty]

Good Value??? the 4 in Melbourne are all current favourites on the tote, not sure how you can say they are good value

In Reference to this:

trying a new way of betting this weekend instead of trying to bet everyrace only have a couple bets i think are standouts or good value

flemington

race 3 marcado

race 6 lankan rupee 5.50

race 7 fiorente 2

race 9 sistine demon 3.20 but guessing he may have got on at better odds like 4's

warwick farm

race 3 territory e/w 7/2.30

race 4 catkins 2.6

race 8 canny ballard

22.6- 8
= +14.6 Units
Which to me is pretty good effort, but I don't know, some of them were favourites so do they count? Reckon his wallet might be going alright as well mate.

 

[rideclutch]

Nice work Main Man, you were all over LR, well done.

 

[Substance]

Flemington

Race 1 - Tahni Dancer

Race 2 - Son Senoras

Race 3 - Awesome Rock

Race 4 - Are There Any

Race 5 - Solicit (Best bet)

Race 6 - Lankan Rupee

Race 7 - Shamus Award

Race 8 - Sertorius (2nd best)

Race 9 - Koonoomoo




Warwick Farm

Race 1 - Lucky Liaison

Race 2 - Wandjina

Race 3 - Barbed (2nd best)

Race 4 - Fire Up Fifi

Race 5 - It’s A Dundeel

Race 6 - El Roca

Race 7 - Guelph

Race 8 - Entirely Platinum (Best bet)


See you guys at Flemington. GL punters

Poor day but I lauched into entirely platinum twice at 3.30 and 2.50 before the race to save the day and thank heck he held on and both best bets (although short) get up so I made a 1.4k profit today. THANKS TO SOLICIT, LR,LL AND EP FOR SAVING ME.

 

[rideclutch]

Why the hell did Entirely Platinum drift out about half a point from midway through the day, till about the end of the 7th when they backed him again?? I took massive unders

 

[iluvparis]

Just under a length behind Mourayan - that's probably where his talent lies.

On the plus side got the Boban/IAD match up right. Hopefully just mean's a much better price for IAD second up when he normally explodes.

 

[yaco55]

It is interesting though, I have a lot of friends who ask for a tip and I will tell them to get on a $2.20 shot and they are like nah I want some value, I don't even bother telling them that I'm backing it because I think the $2.20 is value.

A lot of the unwashed don't see the correlation between the dollar value and the horses chance of winning.

$1.20 is value if its actual chances of winning is more like 90%.

What you say is correct, though about 2 in 10 of horses at $1.20 to $1.30 are beaten.

 

[PureFooty]

Just under a length behind Mourayan - that's probably where his talent lies.

On the plus side got the Boban/IAD match up right. Hopefully just mean's a much better price for IAD second up when he normally explodes.

I'm still learning with how to asses where horses go next, but this is what I'm guessing IAD plans have/will be:
-G1 Chipping Norton 1600m $300k for 1st
-G1 Ranvet stakes 2000m $300k for 1st (2 Weeks time)
-G1 BMW 2400m $1.5m (4 Weeks)
-G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m $2.4m (6 Weeks)

Solid hit out in the Chipping, but got beat by the horse with the freak trainer who clearly targeted this race. Probably exactly how Murray thought it would race.
Pretty confident it goes to the Ranvet where it would be incredibly hard to beat, knowing it's previous 2nd up form, and form over the journey.
Now what happens next is interesting, because it's hard to identify another race for it to go to, besides the BMW as a lead up for the QE. Surely it can't go a month between runs into the biggest race of its career. I'm not sure if anyone else knows of a better race to put it in. So, look i'm drawing a long straw here, but I'm guessing it goes back in the field flies late and is there abouts and is every chance of winning.
Then runs in the QE, each run having a 2 week interval. However, the rise from 2000, 2400, back to 2000 has to be a bit risky, that's why I think they would ride it very quite in the BMW. In saying that, they've done this once before we're it went to the Derby and then back to the QE. But then, it was 5th up and ran into Reliable Man who apparently had a superstar all over it (also beat home happy trails, who ended up going ok...)
And now I feel like i'm going in circles, any ideas how this may play out, I really want to back it in the QE because I'm still confident it's the best horse over 2000m under WFA scale, but I just want some indication of what's next!

 

[nobbyiscool]

Damn I'm having a dogs arse of an autumn so far in Melbourne and Sydney!

I'm sacking Guelph after today. I might be sacking IAD too, just too unreliable given you only ever get short odds.

I'm not going to say that I'm not in a hole this autumn - I absolutely am. But I shudder to think how much worse it would've been if not for a handy Launceston Cup day quaddie about 10 days ago.

 

[iluvparis]

Lohnro used to run in the Ryder rather than the BMW on the way to the Queen Elizbaeth but not sure if that is still a decent option under the new carnival structure.

 

[Main Man]

What you say is correct, though about 2 in 10 of horses at $1.20 to $1.30 are beaten.

As the odds suggest, $1.20 is an 83% chance of winning, therefore a $1.20-$1.30 shot is beaten 2 x out of 10.

 

[Cardio Carl]

So with that theory, if we back $100 on the next 10 horses at $1.20 we outlay $1000 for a return of $960.

A projected loss of $40.

Not sure if I'm keen to test that theory as it doesn't seem a viable long term investment strategy

 

[Cardio Carl]

Seen some value down at The Creek today:

In the cup Beneficiary will be great e/way value and will be hard to beat with the weight and last start sectionals (bet $101 into $60 at Flem and ran 3rd) and also R4 #7.

For the astute punters you will notice B. Higgins is on both, in fact I reckon he has 3-4 chances and is remarkably in the Other Jockey's on the JC which is $6.50 - load up. (could be the omen after the death of the professor last night)

Hobart: R1 Whiz Bang

Corowa Cup: e/w Areteare

Good Luck

CC

 

[Lockyer24]

Wasn't a bad day on course, always a good day of racing but great weather and some fine ladies about in the wine and beer tasting area.

I've lost form in Sydney, IAD was a big miss, Real Surreal just couldn't get there but made some back on the fave in the last.

Finished ahead at Flem after a frustrating start, Bonaria was my best of the day (had a feeling she was in for her break through prep after her first up run), joined the rest of the world with Solicit but had my best result loading up on a Fiorente-Green Moon/Star Rolling exacta.

Bit annoyed I didn't stick with Sistine Demon (saw his first ever trial), thought he had enough.

 

[Lockyer24]

Echuca
R4 Hefner
Quad 1,4,5/2,3,7/5,6/F

Canberra
R2 Never Fazed, R3 Lord of Isles, R4 Agent, R5 Superstition, R6 Greco, R7 Jacquinot Bay, R8 Messene

Stony Creek
R5 Prior, R6 Second King, R7 Hezacruiser, R8 Royal Rada

 

[X_box_X]

How come the fields aren't out for Ballarat Races tomorrow? I have looked on TAB, Betstar, Ladbrokes... none of them have fields.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Not quite sure why I bother studying form...

After spending plenty of time Friday on yesterdays fields in Melbourne and Sydney, I copped a beating.

I've just got back from Black Opal/Canberra Cup and having done no form whatsoever, I got Rose of Falvelon and Jaiquinot Bay up, and was frighteningly close to getting Reparations up (and in any case, was on early enough to get $3.80 fixed odds for the place).

I didn't quite make back what I lost yesterday - but I was damn close. (Getting a free ticket in helped limit "losses" too )

Why do I bother with form?

 

[Main Man]

A nice return for Messene in Canberra today, only coming off 1 trial so expecting plenty of improvement in him, dropped them pretty quickly at the top of the straight and was on tired legs late, a live Doncaster hope.

He was also the 3rd leg of my 4 leg multi with Cooldini the last leg tomorrow in the Adelaide Cup, a 4k result if he gets up, will be looking to lay him to win $500 (more if odds allow, happy to risk $1000) so I'm guaranteed a result either way.

 

[yaco55]

I'm still learning with how to asses where horses go next, but this is what I'm guessing IAD plans have/will be:
-G1 Chipping Norton 1600m $300k for 1st
-G1 Ranvet stakes 2000m $300k for 1st (2 Weeks time)
-G1 BMW 2400m $1.5m (4 Weeks)
-G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m $2.4m (6 Weeks)

Solid hit out in the Chipping, but got beat by the horse with the freak trainer who clearly targeted this race. Probably exactly how Murray thought it would race.
Pretty confident it goes to the Ranvet where it would be incredibly hard to beat, knowing it's previous 2nd up form, and form over the journey.
Now what happens next is interesting, because it's hard to identify another race for it to go to, besides the BMW as a lead up for the QE. Surely it can't go a month between runs into the biggest race of its career. I'm not sure if anyone else knows of a better race to put it in. So, look i'm drawing a long straw here, but I'm guessing it goes back in the field flies late and is there abouts and is every chance of winning.
Then runs in the QE, each run having a 2 week interval. However, the rise from 2000, 2400, back to 2000 has to be a bit risky, that's why I think they would ride it very quite in the BMW. In saying that, they've done this once before we're it went to the Derby and then back to the QE. But then, it was 5th up and ran into Reliable Man who apparently had a superstar all over it (also beat home happy trails, who ended up going ok...)
And now I feel like i'm going in circles, any ideas how this may play out, I really want to back it in the QE because I'm still confident it's the best horse over 2000m under WFA scale, but I just want some indication of what's next!

That program is spot on for IAD. Key to the horse is it goes off after 4 runs. It's vulnerable first up,then goes very well in run 2 and is a gun in fun 4. Think you will find that if connections are serious about setting Fiorente for Royal Ascot that it will miss the Ranvet and run in the BMW and the QE - That means going to Ascot in his fifth race.

For me the Ranvet could be the race of the carnival. IAD and Fiorente WFA over 2400m is a mouth watering prospect.

 

[rideclutch]

A nice return for Messene in Canberra today, only coming off 1 trial so expecting plenty of improvement in him, dropped them pretty quickly at the top of the straight and was on tired legs late, a live Doncaster hope.

It was a great ride really, just took his time to get to the front without gassing him. Would've been half a point shorter from a middle barrier surely?

 

[Main Man]

It was a good ride, didn't panic and allowed him to get into his rhythm, it took sometime to get outside the leader but he didn't have to work too hard to get there.

 

[nobbyiscool]

I have a contrary view - I don't even remember who the jockey was, but I thought Messene was released far too early and was a sitting duck. If Reparations doesn't get held up looking for it's run, Messene doesn't win.

 

[iluvparis]

I see it was 'After The Event' Sunday down in ozland this weekend.