Opinion Matthew Nicks: Adelaide's Coach (Part 2) - Full Support of the Board

Is Matthew Nicks the right coach for Adelaide?

  • Firmly yes (I love what I'm seeing)

  • Leaning yes

  • Can't decide either way

  • Leaning no (but don't sack him yet)

  • Firmly no (he should be sacked)


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I have sat firmly on the fence since Nicks was appointed. I think I commented in 2020 that we have no semblance of a game plan but as our playing group has improved, our game plan has improved.

This week we will have 6 or our best 15 players unavailable (Murray, Worrell, Milera, Crouch, Dawson and Rankine). I believe the only definite best 22 player missing for Hawthorn will be Mitch Lewis. I predict that Sam Mitchell will out coach Nicks this week. Sam has really improved his coaching which coincided with the return of a fit and firing Sicily.

Craig McRae coached brilliantly last year but with 6 first choice players unavailable on the weekend he seems to have lost the plot.

We see how much players contribute to making good coaches each week. Simpson - premiership coach just got sacked, Clarkson - hasnt made finals for last 7 years as coach?
Even Brisbane - looked horrible early in the year, key players found form and now they are arguably second favourite to win it.
Essendon are into their 3rd coach in the last 6-7 years, and still haven’t made finals (and won’t this year)


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I think I commented in 2020, so when he’s made mistake after mistake no comment and being proud about it too, lol
As soon as I post, following an excellent win, either B1 or B2 arrive to troll me again.

I am reluctant to post because regardless of the merit of any idea expressed, I am attacked
.
Strangely since I joined Bigfooty, according to Elite Crow/George Kramer
  • Gary Ayres was a clueless coach
  • Neil Craig was a clueless coach
  • Brenton Sanderson was a clueless coach
  • Don Pyle was a clueless coach.

Apparently any coach that doesn’t win a flag is clueless. Phil Walsh was our only coach to escape the vitriol but I guess he only coached 12 games.

There are aspects of Nicks coaching that I disagree with, others that I support. I see no point taking a negative approach to everything that happens in the AFC.

For example;
“We keep playing the same group of spuds this year”
FACT : Only Richmond, the bottom team have given an AFL game to more players in their AFL Squad this year

“We keep playing the old guys”
FACT : Since Nicks started we have given LESS games to 30+ year old players than all of the other 17 teams”

“We never play the Kids”
FACT : Since Nicks started We have given more games to sub 50 games players than any of the other 17 teams.

As I outlined in the changes thread each week, I would have played Dowling and Taylor earlier in the season but overall we have made a dramatic change to our list.

Our list profile is currently
Yet to debut - 4 (Edwards, Ryan, Gallagher and T Murray
1-25 games - 9
26-50 games - 9
51-100 games - 13
100-199 games - 5
200+ games - 3

Do you know how this compares to our 2021 and 2022 lists?
 
Worrell, Milera and Crouch best 15?

Nah.
Please post our best 15 players assuming everyone is fit. Is Bond on the list? Is Dowling on the list?

At the start of this season I believe every poster had Milera (pre injury) and Crouch in our best 22. I had Worrell as our second best tall defender, do you rank Keane and Butts above Worrell, I don’t.

My list of “definitely in our best 22” at the start of the season was
Michalanney, Murray, Worrell, Milera, Hinge, Dawson, O’Brien, Soligo, Crouch, Laird, Rachele, Walker, Keays, Rankine, Fogarty, Thilthorpe.

Did you have Sloane, Murphy, McHenry, Sholl, Himmelberg, Schoenberg, Berry, Borlase, Hamill on your list?

I didn’t think Pedlar qualified due to his poor pre-season and there was uncertainty over Jones coming back from injury. Our best 22 has obviously changed a bit with Sholl and Nankervis now in our best 22/23 but imho probably not in our best 15.
 
Please post our best 15 players assuming everyone is fit. Is Bond on the list? Is Dowling on the list?

At the start of this season I believe every poster had Milera (pre injury) and Crouch in our best 22. I had Worrell as our second best tall defender, do you rank Keane and Butts above Worrell, I don’t.

My list of “definitely in our best 22” at the start of the season was
Michalanney, Murray, Worrell, Milera, Hinge, Dawson, O’Brien, Soligo, Crouch, Laird, Rachele, Walker, Keays, Rankine, Fogarty, Thilthorpe.

Did you have Sloane, Murphy, McHenry, Sholl, Himmelberg, Schoenberg, Berry, Borlase, Hamill on your list?

I didn’t think Pedlar qualified due to his poor pre-season and there was uncertainty over Jones coming back from injury. Our best 22 has obviously changed a bit with Sholl and Nankervis now in our best 22/23 but imho probably not in our best 15.
1. Rankine
2. Dawson
3. Fogarty
4. Murray
5. Soligo
6. Michalanney
7. Keays
8. Hinge
9. Laird
10. Rachele
11. Keane
12. Berry
13. Butts
14. Nankervis
15. Thilthorpe

Nankervis and Berry have produced way more than Milera has over the past 3 seasons.
Crouch has been ok to good, but again I'd argue Berry has shown what a difference it makes trying to go forward.
Worrell is borderline against Keane and Butts. Keane and Butts probably have the runs of the board. Not to say Worrell won't go past next year.

You can be best 22, and not be best 15. Which is the arbitrary number you chose.

But do, enlighten us with your woe is us, Nicks is great lecture.
 
Statistically this is the order of our players by player rating this season :

RankPlayerRatingPoints_Avg
1​
Izak Rankine
17.738​
2​
Jordan Dawson
13.444​
3​
Rory Laird
12.572​
4​
Matt Crouch
12.455​
5​
Mitchell Hinge
12.359​
6​
Reilly O'Brien
11.056​
7​
Darcy Fogarty
10.617​
8​
Jake Soligo
10.411​
9​
Ben Keays
9.9​
10​
Mark Keane
9.712​
11​
Taylor Walker
9.243​
12​
Josh Worrell
9.133​
13​
Riley Thilthorpe
9.05​
14​
Josh Rachele
8.783​
15​
Chayce Jones
8.607​
16​
Harry Schoenberg
8.45​
17​
Sam Berry
8.346​
18​
Lachlan Sholl
8.34​
19​
Luke Nankervis
8.053​
20​
Billy Dowling
7.6​
21​
Lachlan Murphy
7.542​
22​
Elliott Himmelberg
7.475​
23​
Will Hamill
7.114​
24​
Jordon Butts
6.98​
25​
Kieran Strachan
6.75​
26​
Brodie Smith
6.707​
27​
James Borlase
6.688​
28​
Wayne Milera
6.667​
29​
Brayden Cook
6.55​
30​
Nick Murray
6.2​
31​
Max Michalanney
5.794​
32​
Hugh Bond
5.55​
33​
Zac Taylor
5.5​
34​
Ned McHenry
4.28​
35​
Luke Pedlar
4.125​
36​
Chris Burgess
4.043​
37​
Daniel Curtin
3.7​
38​
Lachlan Gollant
2.8​
39​
Patrick Parnell
-0.2​
 
All I can say after fridays win is Nicks is answering his critics well. Me being one of them.

I plan to keep this post positive so although Nicks made at least a couple of mistakes at the beginning of the year, I feel we have spoken enough about those for the time being.

So, where do we stand as a supporter group moving forward? All I am going to do for awhile is get behind the team and pray Nicks has learned from his mistakes and next year is finally a year where we really make an impact.

He's still playing Murphy and Smith, you can't genuinely compete for a flag if you continue to make such terrible decisions at selection. As I've posted numerous times now, I reckon Nicks is a decent coach. We're going ok, but we'll never win a flag because he remains wedded to seniority over actual performance. The only way a player gets to debut during the season is through injury. It doesn't matter how poorly the experienced guy is going, if they're dropped, they're replaced by other experience, it's never a debutant. And this is why he won't be able to develop a contending list nor put the actual best 22 on the park.
 
1. Rankine
2. Dawson
3. Fogarty
4. Murray
5. Soligo
6. Michalanney
7. Keays
8. Hinge
9. Laird
10. Rachele
11. Keane
12. Berry
13. Butts
14. Nankervis
15. Thilthorpe

Nankervis and Berry have produced way more than Milera has over the past 3 seasons.
Crouch has been ok to good, but again I'd argue Berry has shown what a difference it makes trying to go forward.
Worrell is borderline against Keane and Butts. Keane and Butts probably have the runs of the board. Not to say Worrell won't go past next year.

You can be best 22, and not be best 15. Which is the arbitrary number you chose.

But do, enlighten us with your woe is us, Nicks is great lecture.

The thing with Crouch and Laird is that individually it can be argued that they're best 15, but when played in the midfield together our outcome is as if they're 28th and 29th.
 
1. Rankine
2. Dawson
3. Fogarty
4. Murray
5. Soligo
6. Michalanney
7. Keays
8. Hinge
9. Laird
10. Rachele
11. Keane
12. Berry
13. Butts
14. Nankervis
15. Thilthorpe

Nankervis and Berry have produced way more than Milera has over the past 3 seasons.
Crouch has been ok to good, but again I'd argue Berry has shown what a difference it makes trying to go forward.
Worrell is borderline against Keane and Butts. Keane and Butts probably have the runs of the board. Not to say Worrell won't go past next year.

You can be best 22, and not be best 15. Which is the arbitrary number you chose.

But do, enlighten us with your woe is us, Nicks is great lecture.
In fairness to Milera he has had lots of injuries. At his best he is CLASS.
 
Please post our best 15 players assuming everyone is fit. Is Bond on the list? Is Dowling on the list?

At the start of this season I believe every poster had Milera (pre injury) and Crouch in our best 22. I had Worrell as our second best tall defender, do you rank Keane and Butts above Worrell, I don’t.

My list of “definitely in our best 22” at the start of the season was
Michalanney, Murray, Worrell, Milera, Hinge, Dawson, O’Brien, Soligo, Crouch, Laird, Rachele, Walker, Keays, Rankine, Fogarty, Thilthorpe.

Did you have Sloane, Murphy, McHenry, Sholl, Himmelberg, Schoenberg, Berry, Borlase, Hamill on your list?

I didn’t think Pedlar qualified due to his poor pre-season and there was uncertainty over Jones coming back from injury. Our best 22 has obviously changed a bit with Sholl and Nankervis now in our best 22/23 but imho probably not in our best 15.
Gotta say I fully agree on Worrell, he had become that all important intercept defender that can actually defend, well and truly in my first ten picked each week, the other 2 an argument can be made, and I think if Jnr had stayed fit there would be no argument, I think a lot of people forget that boy can play, just a pity his body keeps letting us all down.
 
Can I just question this idea that we have played the second most players in our squad thing I’m seeing everywhere?

We play our youth for a half and it counts the same as another team playing someone for the whole season. Quarters played in 2024 by experience stat perhaps?

I’d also love to see the number of quarters played by age this year by the subbed on / subbed off cf other sides - Feels like we do it badly.

We have not STUCK with our unproven youngsters like we have completely done with our proven out of form oldies AND most of the debuts / young ins feel like they only come about through injuries to old fellas.

I’m not sure what more evidence people need regarding the benefits of playing talent in the firsts. Continuity still feels more important to Nicks as what he sees as the defining stat to win games (I’d be shocked if he even has a plan to win a premiership).

I suppose it needs the club to admit that we still have a lot of work to do on the list for that to make any sense?
 

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Can I just question this idea that we have played the second most players in our squad thing I’m seeing everywhere?

We play our youth for a half and it counts the same as another team playing someone for the whole season. Quarters played in 2024 by experience stat perhaps?

I’d also love to see the number of quarters played by age this year by the subbed on / subbed off cf other sides - Feels like we do it badly.

We have not STUCK with our unproven youngsters like we have completely done with our proven out of form oldies AND most of the debuts / young ins feel like they only come about through injuries to old fellas.

I’m not sure what more evidence people need regarding the benefits of playing talent in the firsts. Continuity still feels more important to Nicks as what he sees as the defining stat to win games (I’d be shocked if he even has a plan to win a premiership).

I suppose it needs the club to admit that we still have a lot of work to do on the list for that to make any sense?
Mark KeaneAdelaide
93.882​
24​
17​
9.712​
James BorlaseAdelaide
93.5​
22​
8​
6.688​
Izak RankineAdelaide
87.538​
24​
13​
17.738​
Hugh BondAdelaide
87.5​
20​
2​
5.55​
Reilly O'BrienAdelaide
86.25​
29​
16​
11.056​
Ben KeaysAdelaide
86.111​
27​
18​
9.9​
Max MichalanneyAdelaide
85.5​
20​
18​
5.794​
Darcy FogartyAdelaide
85.278​
25​
18​
10.617​
Jordon ButtsAdelaide
85.067​
25​
15​
6.98​
Chayce JonesAdelaide
84.857​
24​
14​
8.607​
Taylor WalkerAdelaide
83.857​
34​
14​
9.243​
Jordan DawsonAdelaide
83.611​
27​
18​
13.444​
Elliott HimmelbergAdelaide
82.75​
26​
8​
7.475​
Josh RacheleAdelaide
82.111​
21​
18​
8.783​
Mitchell HingeAdelaide
81.765​
26​
17​
12.359​
Josh WorrellAdelaide
81.556​
23​
9​
9.133​
Lachlan ShollAdelaide
80.8​
24​
15​
8.34​
Will HamillAdelaide
79.143​
24​
7​
7.114​
Brodie SmithAdelaide
78.933​
32​
15​
6.707​
Billy DowlingAdelaide
77.667​
20​
6​
7.6​
Patrick ParnellAdelaide
76​
22​
1​
-0.2​
Luke NankervisAdelaide
75.867​
21​
15​
8.053​
Rory LairdAdelaide
74.611​
31​
18​
12.572​
Chris BurgessAdelaide
73.286​
29​
7​
4.043​
Wayne MileraAdelaide
72.333​
27​
3​
6.667​
Jake SoligoAdelaide
72​
21​
18​
10.411​
Nick MurrayAdelaide
72​
24​
5​
6.2​
Matt CrouchAdelaide
70.727​
29​
11​
12.455​
Brayden CookAdelaide
70.286​
22​
14​
6.55​
Lachlan MurphyAdelaide
69.917​
26​
12​
7.542​
Kieran StrachanAdelaide
68​
29​
2​
6.75​
Harry SchoenbergAdelaide
66.75​
23​
4​
8.45​
Ned McHenryAdelaide
58.5​
24​
10​
4.28​
Riley ThilthorpeAdelaide
57.5​
22​
2​
9.05​
Lachlan GollantAdelaide
55.667​
23​
3​
2.8​
Sam BerryAdelaide
50.077​
22​
13​
8.346​
Daniel CurtinAdelaide
47​
19​
2​
3.7​
Luke PedlarAdelaide
46​
22​
4​
4.125​
Zac TaylorAdelaide
45​
21​
4​
5.5​

Not got the time or patience to do what you're suggesting but this is the avg TOG (3rd column). Dowling averages nearly as much TOG as Smith etc. I would assume we would be youngest by the stat you are suggesting given we only have 3 players over 30 on our list
 
1. Rankine
2. Dawson
3. Fogarty
4. Murray
5. Soligo
6. Michalanney
7. Keays
8. Hinge
9. Laird
10. Rachele
11. Keane
12. Berry
13. Butts
14. Nankervis
15. Thilthorpe
We agree on 11 of our best 15 players.
1) I think Worrell is clearly our best third tall/intercept defender. Murray is our best key defender and I have Butts and Keane fighting it out for the other key defender spot. I have always been a big fan of Keane but he has had a few poor games (not surprising for a 27 game player) and he isn’t a certain best 22 player imho if everyone is fit.

2) In the second half of last year Milera was playing very well. I love Nankervis but he is yet to have the same influence as Milera at his best. I was one of the first posters to jump on board the Nankervis train, he is projecting very well but he is yet to have the influence of Milera at his best (as you would expect for a 19 game player)

3) Berry started in the AFL last year, struggled and then spent most of the season in the Twos. He has worked his way back into the Ones and his recent form has been good, but still well below the output of Crouch since he returned to the AFL late last season.

4) ROB is not a great ruckman but are you proposing that we play without a ruck. It has been proven that Strachan is not AFL standard so if not ROB then who?

My point was that we will be missing a lot of best 22 players this week. Murray, Butts, Worrell, Milera, Dawson, Crouch and Rankine. I hope I am wrong but I doubt that our replacements will be good enough to beat Hawthorn.
 
We agree on 11 of our best 15 players.
1) I think Worrell is clearly our best third tall/intercept defender. Murray is our best key defender and I have Butts and Keane fighting it out for the other key defender spot. I have always been a big fan of Keane but he has had a few poor games (not surprising for a 27 game player) and he isn’t a certain best 22 player imho if everyone is fit.

2) In the second half of last year Milera was playing very well. I love Nankervis but he is yet to have the same influence as Milera at his best. I was one of the first posters to jump on board the Nankervis train, he is projecting very well but he is yet to have the influence of Milera at his best (as you would expect for a 19 game player)

3) Berry started in the AFL last year, struggled and then spent most of the season in the Twos. He has worked his way back into the Ones and his recent form has been good, but still well below the output of Crouch since he returned to the AFL late last season.

4) ROB is not a great ruckman but are you proposing that we play without a ruck. It has been proven that Strachan is not AFL standard so if not ROB then who?

My point was that we will be missing a lot of best 22 players this week. Murray, Butts, Worrell, Milera, Dawson, Crouch and Rankine. I hope I am wrong but I doubt that our replacements will be good enough to beat Hawthorn.

Just for reference - Murray, Worrell, Milera and Rankine didn’t play against Hawks at the G in Round 12.

Crouch and Laird were in the middle and we know that doesn’t work. Dawson only had 15 touches.

The following players were in the side and probably aren’t this week - Jones, Burgess, Borlase and Schoenberg.

We have added the likes of Taylor, Dowling and Thilthorpe. We are definitely stronger.

Reckon we might do ok.
 
Finally just braved Nicks presser after the Dons match (it's been four days, so my BS Detector has had a rest)

Did he legit say we had to dig deep as B.Smith was dealing with some soreness??

Cmon' Chromey...(as Feenix said so well on Crow Cast) You played the man in TRACTION earlier in the year!
Don't you dare add that to your '2024 Excuse Olympics' 🤮
 
Why couldn’t we play like this from round 1. Few late season wins unfortunately justifying the clubs decision to sign nicks when they did.
Seems to me what he mismanaged here was the balance. He absolutely needed to strengthen our defence (also bearing in mind our inexperience) across the ground, but he went too far and did it at the expense of our attacking flair that we’d been developing last year under Rahilly. That he couldn’t get a handle on the need for both is such a rookie error.
Finally just braved Nicks presser after the Dons match (it's been four days, so my BS Detector has had a rest)

Did he legit say we had to dig deep as B.Smith was dealing with some soreness??

Cmon' Chromey...(as Feenix said so well on Crow Cast) You played the man in TRACTION earlier in the year!
Don't you dare add that to your '2024 Excuse Olympics' 🤮
He got flattened early in the first quarter, they had him on the bench at the time Muz was being assessed. He wasn’t well but basically had to play once Muz was counted out.
 
Seems to me what he mismanaged here was the balance. He absolutely needed to strengthen our defence (also bearing in mind our inexperience) across the ground, but he went too far and did it at the expense of our attacking flair that we’d been developing last year under Rahilly. That he couldn’t get a handle on the need for both is such a rookie error.

He got flattened early in the first quarter, they had him on the bench at the time Muz was being assessed. He wasn’t well but basically had to play once Muz was counted out.

The problem with that Jenny is he isn’t a rookie coach tho - he is 5 years into the top job with the previous 9 years being an assistant. Not bloody good enough.
 
"A couple of mistakes". That's a laugh. He cost us finals yet again with a myriad of mistakes. 2nd year in a row btw. How many opportunities are we gonna give Mark Neeld 2.0? The bloke is a complete bum.
that was clearly sarcasm. read all 50000 posts of mine. I was merely trying to keep it positive for a change.
 
Below are two experience "QR"codes for first 17 rounds of this season and last season. The rows are the the players listed by experience from most experienced at the top to least experienced at the bottom. Note that some of the bottom ones may not be in perfect games experienced order. The columns are the rounds from left =1 to right = 17. The squares are coloured black if the player played.

Which one do you think is the 2024 season and which is the 2023 season?
(I know the top rows arent level on the pics, why this is is a thing I'll write off to the vagaries of the seven pieces of software involved in the process).


exp matrix 2.JPG exp matrix 1.JPG
 
Can I just question this idea that we have played the second most players in our squad thing I’m seeing everywhere?

We play our youth for a half and it counts the same as another team playing someone for the whole season. Quarters played in 2024 by experience stat perhaps?

I’d also love to see the number of quarters played by age this year by the subbed on / subbed off cf other sides - Feels like we do it badly.

We have not STUCK with our unproven youngsters like we have completely done with our proven out of form oldies AND most of the debuts / young ins feel like they only come about through injuries to old fellas.

I’m not sure what more evidence people need regarding the benefits of playing talent in the firsts. Continuity still feels more important to Nicks as what he sees as the defining stat to win games (I’d be shocked if he even has a plan to win a premiership).

I suppose it needs the club to admit that we still have a lot of work to do on the list for that to make any sense?

I guess to put the continuity question into context.
Swans have used 30 plays this year - 6 of those have played 3 games or under

We have played 39 players of which 11 have played 5 or less

Sydney are quite dominant it the continuity stakes - and funnily enough are still a couple of games clear on top

Most teams have played between 24 and 29 players as their core (played more than 5 games)
We have 28 in that category, as do North, Essendon and Port
Bulldogs, Richmond, Collingwood and StKilda have used 29 players more than 5 times

The rest have used less

Take out of that what you will


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