Opinion Matthew Nicks: Adelaide's Coach (Part 3) - The Biggest Loser

Is Matthew Nicks the right coach for Adelaide?

  • Firmly yes (I love what I'm seeing)

  • Leaning yes

  • Can't decide either way

  • Leaning no (but don't sack him yet)

  • Firmly no (he should be sacked)


Results are only viewable after voting.

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If the media hates us as much as you think they do then why would would they have to gain by putting the spotlight on a mediocre coach?

Surely doing what they could to keep the coach at the club would better suit their agenda.

It's the same logic that Crows supporters have about wanting Ken to remain at Port.
Nah, wrong way to look at it .....media act in the now, not in the future

They'll go hard on an issue now, and then change positions next year .....why bank an issue for the future, doesn't happen
 

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WaynesWorld19 Are you saying that there wasn't an expectation that we'd make the 8 this year?

Before the season Nicks himself said we should be making finals. We have clearly fallen woefully short of expectations.


Nicks said Adelaide had delivered on its goal of challenging the best teams in his fourth season, but it was time for the club to do more as it fights for its first finals appearance since 2017.

"We said we were going to come in and challenge the best. We did that. We've got to aim high now," Nicks told AFL.com.au at the club's West Lakes base on Friday.

"So we want to do more than challenge the best this year. There's an expectation on us to perform and play finals footy. We want to embrace that expectation and aim for it, and some.

"We don't want to finish up in August. You get sick of watching finals footy … as do our players the longer they're in the game. So we'll embrace the expectation."
 
Well we haven’t beaten Richmond the last two years.

So we just pick out stats that actually have little relevance. I’m more interested that we are 8-13-1, similar to 2022 (8-14).

We are 5 years in and there is little evidence we will make finals in 2025 and why would that be?
“little evidence we will make finals in 2025” is an opinion, not a fact. Your opinions may well be right but I’d argue there is some evidence we can do much better next year with less injuries. Our score percentages alone (> 100%) and the fact we’ve been matching the top teams in recent weeks with the young inconsistent squad, suggests we’re not that far off.

Incidentally, 7 out of our last 9 games are played against the current top 7 teams! And if we take away the Sydney game, we’ve been matching it well with 5 of the other teams in the top 6:

2. Port - we’ve matched them pretty well this year.
3. GWS - we recently beat them
4. Cats - recent loss by 1 goal (away)
5. Lions - recent loss by 2 goals (away)
6. Dogs - we won by 40 points

Bearing in mind these are Finals-like games with all teams needing wins to guarantee Finals, nearing the end of the season. Compare this form against our first 5 weeks of footy and it’s like chalk and cheese! End result may be the same, but I’m more interested in our momentum shift. This is what betting people look for, don’t they?
 
Why don't you post your reasons for thinking he's mediocre .....and please do not post this S*** about not getting the Club into Finals during the rebuild ....I'll spew all over my tea
I wanted to have a go at this, not because I think I'll change anyone's mind, just because it's a fun exercise.

1) He didn't bring a broom. The best organizational changers I've seen in action (even in footy coach terms) come with a broom and sweep away a bunch of folks. Making tough, even harsh calls. We're still dealing with Laird, Smith, Crouch and I believe we would still have Sloane in the guts if not for the eye, so many years later. Some of these blokes really do smack of bad attitude and I think they shouldn't even be here.

2) I don't agree with his selection policies and think he's too slow to craft players into their best spot. No eye for talent & position. Dawson took too long to get into the guts, Rankine did too. Laird took too long to get booted out. I'm still a Rachele in the middle believer and very disappointed we've not let him in there, similar for Pedlar. The continual selection of all available seniors over young players doesn't sit right with me. Also bog average blokes like Murphy, Berry & Schoenberg over more interesting & talented like Peds, Dowling, Taylor, and even youngsters who are in the team should have more games by now like Worrell, Nank.

3) He's failed to make us resilient. Failed to teach the team how to close out/win close games. When we're good enough to be in it right at the end of games, we don't tend to win. It's not even 50/50 chance. I know we're young but so are others and we lose tight games to them more often than not. A lot of times when we've got "must win" games or starting a new year with some expectation, we flop. Even the famous loss to Sydney in 2023, we were down by 40+ points due to not being resilient.

4) I can't get past so many stupid tactical moves 😭 especially around who to sub and when. ik ik, it's little stuff that might not make a real difference (although some were so dumb they just might have), but it just smacks of stupidity so many times. Won't go into all of them, they've been repeated ad-nauseum.

5) Hasn't fixed our midfield. Overall it's still a weakness after sooo many years. I put this last because I know you can't fix everything even in 5 years.

ig that's it
 
He's had a poor year, no question. A lot of unforced errors.

The danger is we should have a soft draw in 2025. Soft enough that with a good injury run, continued improvement and a couple of good recruits, our list should be capable of challenging for top four in 2025. It's a matter of whether the coaches and match committee can get them there.

The danger is we continue to be poorly coached but we scrape into 8th, the club calls it a successful year, and then the whole thing goes to shit (again) in 2026 after yet another false dawn.
 
In a year we were saying we were going to make finals and he specifically chanted the mantra of embrace the expectation, we are fourth from bottom.

He needs to be shown the door, five seasons of failing is enough otherwise the whole club doesn't embrace the expectation of not making finals as there is no consequence when we continually don't.
 
In a year we were saying we were going to make finals and he specifically chanted the mantra of embrace the expectation, we are fourth from bottom.

He needs to be shown the door, five seasons of failing is enough otherwise the whole club doesn't embrace the expectation of not making finals as there is no consequence when we continually don't.
Very comfortable club
 
In a year we were saying we were going to make finals and he specifically chanted the mantra of embrace the expectation, we are fourth from bottom.

He needs to be shown the door, five seasons of failing is enough otherwise the whole club doesn't embrace the expectation of not making finals as there is no consequence when we continually don't.
His own views with embrace the expectation (deal with the pressure) doesn’t align with the clubs, hence then signing him early to avoid the speculation and pressure.
 

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I wanted to have a go at this, not because I think I'll change anyone's mind, just because it's a fun exercise.

1) He didn't bring a broom. The best organizational changers I've seen in action (even in footy coach terms) come with a broom and sweep away a bunch of folks. Making tough, even harsh calls. We're still dealing with Laird, Smith, Crouch and I believe we would still have Sloane in the guts if not for the eye, so many years later. Some of these blokes really do smack of bad attitude and I think they shouldn't even be here.

2) I don't agree with his selection policies and think he's too slow to craft players into their best spot. No eye for talent & position. Dawson took too long to get into the guts, Rankine did too. Laird took too long to get booted out. I'm still a Rachele in the middle believer and very disappointed we've not let him in there, similar for Pedlar. The continual selection of all available seniors over young players doesn't sit right with me. Also bog average blokes like Murphy, Berry & Schoenberg over more interesting & talented like Peds, Dowling, Taylor, and even youngsters who are in the team should have more games by now like Worrell, Nank.

3) He's failed to make us resilient. Failed to teach the team how to close out/win close games. When we're good enough to be in it right at the end of games, we don't tend to win. It's not even 50/50 chance. I know we're young but so are others and we lose tight games to them more often than not. A lot of times when we've got "must win" games or starting a new year with some expectation, we flop. Even the famous loss to Sydney in 2023, we were down by 40+ points due to not being resilient.

4) I can't get past so many stupid tactical moves 😭 especially around who to sub and when. ik ik, it's little stuff that might not make a real difference (although some were so dumb they just might have), but it just smacks of stupidity so many times. Won't go into all of them, they've been repeated ad-nauseum.

5) Hasn't fixed our midfield. Overall it's still a weakness after sooo many years. I put this last because I know you can't fix everything even in 5 years.

ig that's it
Thanks for putting the effort in .....you've obviously put thought into your post, and that I appreciate

On point (1) ....I still subscribe to the theory young players learn quicker with some experience around them ....wiping most of the experience delays /stalls development
You can argue about who to keep and who to jettison .....1-2 players in each zone appears to be the thinking, but be careful of recency bias on Smith, Laird ....4-5 years ago, they were definite keepers ....they've now dropped away alarmingly

Point (2) is always a personal POV with Rookies ....every supporter will vary in their thinking ....there'd be nothing to discuss if every supporter agreed with selection
I've read player "X" being named as one of our best in a game, whilst another says he was one of our worst
I've never been too fussed if a player gets selected R5 or R15 .....makes no difference over a career

Re point (3) this I disagree with the most .....he has us as a very resilient team, a team that fights back when down .....rarely gets blown off the park
Not winning close ones is more a symptom of the age profile and experience ....but supporters have been treated to a lot of close games .....however I appreciate the frustration

Re point (5) ....this is a valid criticism
We criticise the club for taking McHenry and Gallucci ....were they forced Draft choices to fill a need, versus taking best available ?
If an "A" grade Mid is not available at our Draft position, do you want us to take another Galluci gamble ?

Fisher McCasey seems to be the biggest bone of contention ......taking a KPD with pick 6

Remember it can be argued, in a rebuild you build the spine first, as it takes the longest ....that's always been my advocacy as well .....RICH and NORTH in their early rebuild went Mids first ....and that failed miserably

2019 - McAsey
2020 - Thilthorpe
2021 - Rachele
2022 - Michalanney - Rankine
2023 - Curtin

IMO that's a pretty good haul ....if you're correct, Rachele was supposed to be a Mid upcoming, and we know how good Rankine is as a Mid ....which I advocated for Rankine to play Mid from day dot

It's not out of the question that Rachele can lift his game and play MID next year .....he has done well in spurts, but overall to date been a disappointment for his pick

You assume we'll take a MID this year, so that's theoretically 3 x Draft Mids in 6 years .....plus we've been desperately trying to trade for a mid
 
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Before the season Nicks himself said we should be making finals. We have clearly fallen woefully short of expectations.


Nicks said Adelaide had delivered on its goal of challenging the best teams in his fourth season, but it was time for the club to do more as it fights for its first finals appearance since 2017.

"We said we were going to come in and challenge the best. We did that. We've got to aim high now," Nicks told AFL.com.au at the club's West Lakes base on Friday.

"So we want to do more than challenge the best this year. There's an expectation on us to perform and play finals footy. We want to embrace that expectation and aim for it, and some.

"We don't want to finish up in August. You get sick of watching finals footy … as do our players the longer they're in the game. So we'll embrace the expectation."

‘……..we’ll embrace the expectation’……?! Fair go. Is this strong leadership stuff from a coach ? …..embrace…
 
But we already see how vetted our "Members Candidates" are.

And the one the club prefer win anyway.

Not always true. Port & Koch threw everything at an Abernethy win, but members wanted Tredrea.

Ultimately though, Tredrea, like the two elected Crows board members, has little power, as he’s hopelessly outnumbered. Any motion he puts up on behalf of members is easily voted down.

The two elected positions are, very obviously, token spots to give members a false sense of representation.

It is a Utopian dream to think much will really change once us members have a vote for all of the Board.

I agree with you that it won’t be a silver bullet but that isn’t a reason not to do it.

It’s almost certain that a board entirely accountable to members doesn’t get away with what they’ve done this year.
 
Given that most rebuilding coaches are lucky to get 3 years before getting sacked, what metric are you basing your assessment that not making the finals in 4 seasons is a pass mark?

Why do most other coaches get sacked after 3 seasons if you believe that making the finals after 4 seasons is unrealistic?

The club has tried a few times to compare Nicks to Thompson and Hardwick, but after five seasons

Hardwick 48% W/L record - 2 finals series
Thompson 49% W/L record - 2 finals series
Nicks 35% W/L record - 0 finals

In time we'll look back on the Nicks era as one that should have ended at the end of 2022.

There’s a high correlation between list ability, list age profile and win rate. I don’t think it would have mattered who was coaching in those first 3 years, there was never going to be a high win rate. I think the club is looking at where we were in 2020 (64%) to where we are now (competitive but middling) and would say that is progression.
 
There’s a high correlation between list ability, list age profile and win rate. I don’t think it would have mattered who was coaching in those first 3 years, there was never going to be a high win rate. I think the club is looking at where we were in 2020 (64%) to where we are now (competitive but middling) and would say that is progression.
Why do people continue this line about win rate in the first 3 seasons

Most here understood the win rate would be down with a so called rebuild

What we didnt expect was a win rate with a majority of senior players

2020 - Round 1 - Crouch x 2 , Laird, Sloane , Walker, Smith, Talia, Kelly, Milera, Lynch, Seeds, Atkins, Brown, Gibbs

14 players

2020 - Last round after 14 losses - 14 losses
Crouch x 2 , Laird, Lynch , Mackay, Smith , Sloane , Kelly , Brown, Hartigan, Walker, Talia - 12 players

12
 
There’s a high correlation between list ability, list age profile and win rate. I don’t think it would have mattered who was coaching in those first 3 years, there was never going to be a high win rate. I think the club is looking at where we were in 2020 (64%) to where we are now (competitive but middling) and would say that is progression.
When you finish last, the only way is up. And we still had plenty of senior guys still in the team that year
So after 5 years we have gone from 18th to 15th :(
 

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Opinion Matthew Nicks: Adelaide's Coach (Part 3) - The Biggest Loser

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