Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[54Dogs]

Great analysis as usual Paris

Don't encourage him, it's not healthy

 

[iluvparis]

Great analysis as usual Paris
Thoughts on top 5 seeds for Caulfield?
I love a dabble at the doubles

I find CC a bit harder from an ante post perspective as locals can be competitive; top weights can still win; and for many of the better horses it is a bit of an afterthought some years. Just looking through the market now and nothing really appeals.

 

[plays tall 1]

Yeah the Caulfield Cup is a much riskier proposition as half of the time the trainer diverts to the Moonee Valley Cup, Lexus, Geelong Cup etc. with the focus on qualifying for the Melbourne Cup.

One horse I think is overs is She’s Ideel at $41/$11. Her second to Sir Dragonet at WFA in the Tancred reads well for the CC. She’s favourite for the Metrop at $5.50, which is obviously a weaker race but, with few internationals likely to run in the CC this year, it’ll be the weakest edition in years. Could be another Boom Time type result. No guarantee she goes there but it seems likely as it’s 2 weeks after the Metrop so it fits in neatly.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah the Caulfield Cup is a much riskier proposition as half of the time the trainer diverts to the Moonee Valley Cup, Lexus, Geelong Cup etc. with the focus on qualifying for the Melbourne Cup.

One horse I think is overs is She’s Ideel at $41/$11. Her second to Sir Dragonet at WFA in the Tancred reads well for the CC. She’s favourite for the Metrop at $5.50, which is obviously a weaker race but, with few internationals likely to run in the CC this year, it’ll be the weakest edition in years. Could be another Boom Time type result. No guarantee she goes there but it seems likely as it’s 2 weeks after the Metrop so it fits in neatly.

I doubt she is anywhere near good enough to win a Caulfield Cup and seems fairly priced at the $40s (even if starting shorter on the day). Trying to find the next 'Boom Time' result (probably the worst winner in 30 years) is not something I would be trying to do. Mediocre Sydney stayers are the ultimate avoid in the Cups - their record is abysmal.

Yes she ran second in a BMW but there where a wall of horses around her and she couldn't even place in a Sydney Cup carrying 50. Hard pass

 

[iluvparis]

POWER RANKINGS WEEK 2 - THE STASI STRIKES

Well the RV vets have claimed their first victim with beloved cuts nonny Prince of Arran sent packing. Other than that it was a pretty inglorious week for cup hopefuls with basically all of the local runners going dead set awful.

1 - Sir Lucan (Betfair $25, Last Week #1) - Nothing to suggest he is not the clear number 1 seed heading into his St Leger assignment
2 - Verry Elleegant ($32, LW #3) - Will have her hands full with Zaaki in the Cox Plate but he won't be going to Flemington...hopefully she does
3 - Surefire ($60, LW #4) - Rising up the rankings this week by just not turning up to the races - feels like that could be a common theme this year
4 - Dawn Patrol ($16.50, LW #2) - Has to drop a couple of spots here of what was a bog average Feehan run beating home only Realm Of Flowers and Port Guillame - Sound and Chapada ran better FFS
5 - Spanish Mission ($13, LW #5) - Will probably slowly move up to a top 3 slot by race day just due to the fact everything else is shit
6 - Baron Samedi ($65, LW #8) - A couple of spots higher with a few of the European raiders falling by the wayside
7 - Sir Dragonet ($120, LW #9) - The way this race is shaping up they are dead set morons if they aim for the Japan Cup over Flemington
8 - Twiligh Payment ($55, LW #10) - See Baron Samedi
9 - The Chosen One ($70, LW n/r) - Best Cup trial of the week but had the race shot to bits last year at the 400 and went looking for the milk. Can run top 8 again but can't win.
10 - Young Werther ($50, LW n/r) - Could legit throw anything in here at this stage and YW ran well in two derbies without winning so might actually get in ok at the weights.

 

[TBellicious]

Surely Realm of Flowers sneaks in to 10 instead of YW. Nice pipe opener yesterday running fastest last 400 and 200 in the Feehan. And we know she is going there

 

[FallingLiefs]

Surely Realm of Flowers sneaks in to 10 instead of YW. Nice pipe opener yesterday running fastest last 400 and 200 in the Feehan. And we know she is going there

Do you take ratings seriously when they don’t even include fave.

 

[iluvparis]

Surely Realm of Flowers sneaks in to 10 instead of YW. Nice pipe opener yesterday running fastest last 400 and 200 in the Feehan. And we know she is going there

Nah looked the dead set slowly she was yesterday and fully exposed as not good enough to win a Sydney Cup. I’d rather something with at least the possibility of upside.

 

[Jugada]

A - Spanish Mission, Dawn Patrol, Sir Lucan, Delphi, Baron Samedi

B - Incentivise, RoF

C - Surefire, English King, Amade

 

[iluvparis]

A - Spanish Mission, Dawn Patrol, Sir Lucan, Delphi, Baron Samedi

B - Incentivise, RoF

C - Surefire, English King, Amade

Lol two weeks ago you were saying Delphi was a B grader after he showed he was nowhere near good enough by plodding home behind No Effort and now he is back on your A line!

This really includes a bunch of very awful horses that have none (to be fair - so are half of mine) - just shows what an horrific race it will be this year.

 

[botswana42]

wow, young werther in the top 10 seeds, we are in for vintage edition. good job racing victoria! embarrassing stufff...

 

[Jugada]

Lol two weeks ago you were saying Delphi was a B grader after he showed he was nowhere near good enough by plodding home behind No Effort and now he is back on your A line!

This really includes a bunch of very awful horses that have none (to be fair - so are half of mine) - just shows what an horrific race it will be this year.

50-50 between A and B but I have him a rung your RoF and Incentivises as a betting proposition

 

[onthehill24]

wow, young werther in the top 10 seeds, we are in for vintage edition. good job racing victoria! embarrassing stufff...

Johnny's getting angrier not being above young werther

 

[54Dogs]

Paris with a firm position against the QLD hype machine

 

[iluvparis]

Paris with a firm position against the QLD hype machine

He can start to prove me wrong on Saturday but as it stands one of the worst antepost prices about a horse I've ever seen (more so in the CC than here) - dont think he will get the 3200m anyway to be honest.

How quickly people forget Master Of Wine was basically fave for both cups and the Cox Plate prior to resuming last year

 

[iluvparis]

First acceptances

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2021-rv/the-sport/2021-09-07-melbourne-cup-1st-acceptances.pdf?la=en

 

[Jugada]

One down from the A line only making it easier to narrow the winning hopes.

Has to be a reasonable chance of no FIFO internationals now too

 

[iluvparis]

One down from the A line only making it easier to narrow the winning hopes.

Has to be a reasonable chance of no FIFO internationals now too

My guess is you’ll end up with the 3 faves. Even this far out they look the most likely

 

[Jugada]

Rodrigo Diaz in the bin. Poor run in the Doncaster Cup and will be very unlikely to even get a run

 

[iluvparis]

Rodrigo Diaz in the bin. Poor run in the Doncaster Cup and will be very unlikely to even get a run

never got out of the bin as evidenced by the fact oz blood stock bought it

 

[Jugada]

Dreadful run by Sir Lucan in the St Leger. Genuine 30-40s chance after that

 

[iluvparis]

Dreadful run by Sir Lucan in the St Leger. Genuine 30-40s chance after that

Yup awful. Has none off that.

 

[spike101]

Rumour member of RSN morning panel has a gambling problem. Bets and loses too much by half.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Incentivise looking likely to get around 53kg for the Cup...

What are we thinking now?

104 rater heading into a Makybe, Mo'unga 2nd probably now a 111 or 112 rater. Sir D 3rd 116, Tofane 115. Level weights means re-rated 110 at min likely 112 (i'd give him 111) or even more.

55-56kg now surely? Probably given a winning weight in the CC but penalty, lifting of weights could be pushing weight carrying record since Makybe in the MC.

Has Twilight passed vet clearance he's probably the hope to compress weights on tuesday.

 

[plays tall 1]

What are we thinking now?

104 rater heading into a Makybe, Mo'unga 2nd probably now a 111 or 112 rater. Sir D 3rd 116, Tofane 115. Level weights means re-rated 110 at min likely 112 (i'd give him 111) or even more.

55-56kg now surely? Probably given a winning weight in the CC but penalty, lifting of weights could be pushing weight carrying record since Makybe in the MC.

Has Twilight passed vet clearance he's probably the hope to compress weights on tuesday.

Agree, surely has to be up around 56 at least. I’m expecting only Twilight Payment and Sir Dragonet to get more weight. Possibly Spanish Mission but it’s anyone’s guess as to how they treat Euro ratings.

Given the mare’s allowance I’m expecting Verry Elleegant to be around the same weight (~56kg) after winning the CC with 55kg last year. Mo’unga probably around the same. Not a lot of logic to it but there rarely seems to be with handicapping for these races. Given VE’s rating she could get more but I suspect they want her in these races.