Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[Ah12]

3 Units PP with SB @ $34 - Incentivise cups double.

As mentioned, he really should be putting the CC away comfortably on ratings/form. MC field looks the weakest its been in years, worth a crack imo.

 

[dontlimitme]

3 Units PP with SB @ $34 - Incentivise cups double.

As mentioned, he really should be putting the CC away comfortably on exposed form. MC field looks the weakest its been in years, worth a crack imo.

where is this on sb or how do you multi it?

 

[Ah12]

where is this on sb or how do you multi it?

In the Futures markets all the way to the right of the racing section. Eg Next To Jump, Today, Tomorrow, Thursday, Friday, Futures.

Scroll down and you will see the ‘cups double market’. No need to multi it.

 

[iluvparis]

Smart from Murtagh realizing his form wouldn't be good enough

 

[FallingLiefs]

3 Units PP with SB @ $34 - Incentivise cups double.

As mentioned, he really should be putting the CC away comfortably on ratings/form. MC field looks the weakest its been in years, worth a crack imo.

Opposing Incentivise in MC until I see some weights and is still yet to get a rating from Saturday. Seems to be some split opinion on what he's going to get. I'm sticking with approx 56kg which if same in CC is probably winnable but a penalty, 3200m and potential cox plate will be interesting.

 

[HeathySure]

Opposing Incentivise in MC until I see some weights and is still yet to get a rating from Saturday. Seems to be some split opinion on what he's going to get. I'm sticking with approx 56kg which if same in CC is probably winnable but a penalty, 3200m and potential cox plate will be interesting.

I tend to agree with you. Even with the weights, racing pattern and breeding is a worry in the Cup. He is very strong over 2500 though. Its going to be a fascinating race!

 

[FallingLiefs]

I tend to agree with you. Even with the weights, racing pattern and breeding is a worry in the Cup. He is very strong over 2500 though. Its going to be a fascinating race!

I’m not too concerned about breeding. It’s worth a look at what shamus is producing. Like 4 derby/Oaks winners plus multiple more cup winners and oaks/derby placing. Staggering performance of a low service fee/book of mares.

More importantly he looks a genuine stayer to the eye in his races and if you give any creedance to dosage he’s a genuine 3miler.

 

[HeathySure]

I’m not too concerned about breeding. It’s worth a look at what shamus is producing. Like 4 derby/Oaks winners plus multiple more cup winners and oaks/derby placing. Staggering performance of a low service fee/book of mares.

More importantly he looks a genuine stayer to the eye in his races and if you give any creedance to dosage he’s a genuine 3miler.

He is producing Derby winners against Australian Sires which are either sprinting sires or as you say dont get the mares to produce horses of decent staying quality. He will be meeting better bred overseas horses in the cup. I consider it a worry.
But i do agree he is a very good cheap Australian sire

 

[FallingLiefs]

He is producing Derby winners against Australian Sires which are either sprinting sires or as you say dont get the mares to produce horses of decent staying quality. He will be meeting better bred overseas horses in the cup. I consider it a worry.
But i do agree he is a very good cheap Australian sire

33k a hole in the pocket these days but bargain last few years. Still worth it though.

 

[iluvparis]

Sonnyboyliston/Twilight Payment would have to be standouts as the worst ever topweights in the history of the great race (although techinally its VE after mare's adjustment) - Spanish Mission/Sir Dragonet absolutely thrown in relative to them

 

[Jugada]

58 for SBL lol. Such a shame it didn't accept

 

[iluvparis]

58 for SBL lol. Such a shame it didn't accept

Imagine the Nick Williams rant if it was Lloyd owned and they actually wanted to come - he would legit be firebombing RV headquarters right now

 

[FallingLiefs]

58 for SBL lol. Such a shame it didn't accept

Not sure what you were expecting, is rated 116 and just beat cup winner/co-top weight at WFA.

As if people pay no attention to OHRs

 

[Jugada]

First thoughts are you can pen Twilight Payment, Verry Elleegant, Sir Dragonet and Gold Trip at the weights. Could not beat home Spanish Mission on level weights

 

[iluvparis]

First thoughts are you can pen Twilight Payment, Verry Elleegant, Sir Dragonet and Gold Trip at the weights. Could not beat home Spanish Mission on level weights

Spanish Mission is certainly thrown in at the weights relative to TP who can't win (flogs him in the Gold Cup and runs Strad a neck but gets in lighter than an Ebor/Irish Leger winner? lel Greg C plz!) but the turn of foot that VE and Sir D have gives them more than enough chance of sprinting past him in the straight. They are superior gallopers to him at level weights if they run it slow enough. 3200m is his only advantage - I'd back VE and Sir D against him at WFA all day.

 

[Jugada]

Not sure what you were expecting, is rated 116 and just beat cup winner/co-top weight at WFA.

As if people pay no attention to OHRs

Mate you were saying just yesterday that you thought it would get weight relief from TP in the Cup...

Would think it does not take a genius to work out a horse that beat last years cup winner, has won 2 in a row, 3 of last 4 in his 4yo season will get weight relief off the aforementioned cup winner is a genuine chance of winning the MC.

I knew it would be weighted far too high but 58 has him in even worse than I was expecting

 

[Jugada]

Spanish Mission is certainly thrown in at the weights relative to TP who can't win (flogs him in the Gold Cup and runs Strad a neck but gets in lighter than the Ebor/Irish Leger winner? lel Greg C plz!) but the turn of foot that VE and Sir D have gives them more than enough chance of sprinting past him in the straight. They are superior gallopers to him at level weights if they run it slow enough. 3200m is his only advantage - I'd back VE and Sir D against him at WFA all day.

Sir D won't be there but I'm very comfortable in leaving out VE now that the handicapper has well and truly found her. 57kg for a mare that isn't the Diva is a leave out job for me

 

[FallingLiefs]

Mate you were saying just yesterday that you thought it would get weight relief from TP in the Cup...



I knew it would be weighted far too high but 58 has him in even worse than I was expecting

Please read the post instead of snipping the bits that suit your opinion.............. I said it would be hard to give him too much less than TP. Was expecting something like

SirD 58
TP 58
SM 57.5
SBL 57-57.5ish
Incent 56.0

Spanish and Incent, the big winners but no real surprises.

 

[iluvparis]

Sir D won't be there but I'm very comfortable in leaving out VE now that the handicapper has well and truly found her. 57kg for a mare that isn't the Diva is a leave out job for me

Normally yes but I am happy to be much more forgiving of high weights this year because the quality of the field is so low - the top weight had 55 two years ago and was trounced and the other top weight would have carried only 53 if he just lined up here rather than running in the Ebor/Leger. She had 55.5 last year and i reckon this field will end up at least 1.5 kgs worse

Some of the syndicators would be kicking themselves at not sniffing around for some of the Ebor also rans though - they'd be able to get 5-7 kgs of Sonnyboy for length defeats!

 

[Jugada]

Please read the post instead of snipping the bits that suit your opinion.............. I said it would be hard to give him too much less than TP. Was expecting something like

SirD 58
TP 58
SM 57.5
SBL 57-57.5ish
Incent 56.0

Spanish and Incent, the big winners but no real surprises.

It's not snipping things to suit my opinion, could quote the whole thing and it wouldn't change. You were saying yesterday it would be getting weight relief from TP and now today acting like it's obvious that it would be equal top weight with TP. I thought it would be horrendously weighted but equal top weight is even worse than I was expecting

 

[FallingLiefs]

It's not snipping things to suit my opinion, could quote the whole thing and it wouldn't change. You were saying yesterday it would be getting weight relief from TP and now today acting like it's obvious that it would be equal top weight with TP. I thought it would be horrendously weighted but equal top weight is even worse than I was expecting

There's like 3-5 posts in their previous explaining it would be hard to give too much less and they've given it equal and its OHR came out only last night.

Said you had to hold out and see on weights but you ignore that part as his OHR was not released. Regardless it's not coming has got a weight close to it's OHR dictated weight and everyone can't comprehend it.

You act like it should get 55kg.

 

[HeathySure]

Please read the post instead of snipping the bits that suit your opinion.............. I said it would be hard to give him too much less than TP. Was expecting something like

SirD 58
TP 58
SM 57.5
SBL 57-57.5ish
Incent 56.0

Spanish and Incent, the big winners but no real surprises.

incentivise is disgustingly weighted. I know they weigh basically on ratings these days (which i think is totally wrong because Australian ratings are way inflated for their actual ability). He has won a 1600m wfa race and a group 3 staying race. Explosive Jack a triple group 1 staying race winner has 54. Johnny Get Angry should be weighted higher given he is a group 1 staying winner, i cant find his weight anywhere but i assume it is way less. He wins the Caulfield cup easily and his chances of winning the Melbourne cup basically go out the window. He has had 10 starts, IF he wins he basically has no races to win next year unless he improves enough to win the cox plate and bang goes his racing career.

 

[FallingLiefs]

incentivise is disgustingly weighted. I know they weigh basically on ratings these days (which i think is totally wrong because Australian ratings are way inflated for their actual ability). He has won a 1600m wfa race and a group 3 staying race. Explosive Jack a triple group 1 staying race winner has 54. Johnny Get Angry should be weighted higher given he is a group 1 staying winner, i cant find his weight anywhere but i assume it is way less. He wins the Caulfield cup easily and his chances of winning the Melbourne cup basically go out the window. He has had 10 starts, IF he wins he basically has no races to win next year unless he improves enough to win the cox plate and bang goes his racing career.

Incent was always going to spike up in weights, they were probably generous. I'd still be sending him CC - CP.

From sunday

-
104 rater heading into a Makybe, Mo'unga 2nd probably now a 111 or 112 rater. Sir D 3rd 116, Tofane 115. Level weights means re-rated 110 at min likely 112 (i'd give him 111) or even more.

55-56kg now surely? Probably given a winning weight in the CC but penalty, lifting of weights could be pushing weight carrying record since Makybe in the MC.

Has Twilight passed vet clearance he's probably the hope to compress weights on tuesday.
-

It's just hard to hold out on his ratings because of what was behind him in a genuine race with top raters coming to front of field. Was really a worst case scenario with spike rating for him.

As for the 3yo's rising 4yo's they get assisted by WFA scale not maxing out for them yet and the fact G1 3yo races have lower BM ratings.

As for Euro's yeah they are always couple lb light IMO but it gives them incentives to come down here for instance SM somehow escapes the HCP wrath by not winning G1 although it's G2 outrates our G1s.


TP 117 (should get 58, got 58)
SBL 116 (should get 57.5, got 58)
SirD 116 (should get 57.5, got 57.5)
SM 117 (should get 58, got 57) Not a G1 winner though.

Incent 111 (should get 55, got 55.5)

 

[HeathySure]

Incent was always going to spike up in weights, they were probably generous. I'd still be sending him CC - CP.

From sunday

-
104 rater heading into a Makybe, Mo'unga 2nd probably now a 111 or 112 rater. Sir D 3rd 116, Tofane 115. Level weights means re-rated 110 at min likely 112 (i'd give him 111) or even more.

55-56kg now surely? Probably given a winning weight in the CC but penalty, lifting of weights could be pushing weight carrying record since Makybe in the MC.

Has Twilight passed vet clearance he's probably the hope to compress weights on tuesday.
-

It's just hard to hold out on his ratings because of what was behind him in a genuine race with top raters coming to front of field. Was really a worst case scenario with spike rating for him.

As for the 3yo's rising 4yo's they get assisted by WFA scale not maxing out for them yet and the fact G1 3yo races have lower BM ratings.

As for Euro's yeah they are always couple lb light IMO but it gives them incentives to come down here for instance SM somehow escapes the HCP wrath by not winning G1 although it's G2 outrates our G1s.


TP 117 (should get 58, got 58)
SBL 116 (should get 57.5, got 58)
SirD 116 (should get 57.5, got 57.5)
SM 117 (should get 58, got 57) Not a G1 winner though.

Incent 111 (should get 55, got 55.5)

A handicappers job is not to weight on potential its to weight on performance. There are HUGE flaws in the ratings system given a horse that has won 1 decent race basically is weighted out of horse racing if he wins a Caulfield Cup. If MD was around today she would get what? 62 in her second cup based on ratings? We have enough garbage horses going around right now without them weighting the good horses out of competition

As an example. Might and Power got 52.5 in his year before his CC win. He got 56 after he won. He was a superstar

 

[Jugada]

Initial thoughts of those around the market

Twilight Payment - 58
Spanish Mission - 57
Gold Trip - 57
Verry Elleegant - 57
Incentivise 55.5
Explosive Jack - 54
The Chosen One - 54
Dawn Patrol - 53
Delphi - 52.5
Amade - 52.5
Young Werther - 52
Duais - 51
Realm Of Flowers - 51
English King - 50

Incentivise has more weight than I think he deserves on what he has achieved and it will bump up another kilo or so after a CC win but on what I think he is capable of achieving the 55.5 is a winnable weight.

Nothing 57+ can beat home Spanish Mission for mine. He looks nicely in for what will be a weak year.

Jack at 54 is about what you would expect for a Derby winner but can't have him against YW with the 2kg advantage.

Dawn Patrol slots in pretty much as expected with Lloyd knowing how to beat the handicapper. Just needs to find some form now.

Delphi probably half a kilo more than I would have liked but still a very winnable weight if he shows some form this week.

RoF gets in well against everything he took on in Sydney and the AR. Not sure he has the peak ability of some but should be beating home most still.

English King still a big question mark runner I want to keep an eye on. Has to do something obviously and win his way in but on raw ability is weighted to his absolute minimum.