Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[Jugada]

POWER RANKINGS - DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC

Can't believe I wasted so much time trying order horses to finish behind the champ

#1 - INCENTIVISE (Betfair $3, Last week #1) - Already firmed half a cent in the last 12 hours on the fair as people wake up to the fact that as long as he stays this is a complete and utter moral regardless of the penalty.
#2 - VERRY ELLEEGANT ($32, #4) - Outside the fave and Spanish Mission will be the only decent horse in the race if she lines up. The price is huge as she probably starts third fave if she goes there after the Cox Plate
#3 - SPANISH MISSION ($7.60, #6) - Onto the podium this week with everything going utter dogshit - won't have the turn of foot to trouble the fave but it is only going to take staying the trip with half remote ability to place this year.
#4 - TWILIGHT PAYMENT ($20, #8) - Won last year and outside the fave this years edition is lengths weaker - in terribly at the weights however which will stop him defending his title
#5 - PERSAN ($29, u/r) - An honest battler who can challenge his top 4 finish last year - nowhere near good enough to win though as we saw yesterday
#6 - GRAND PROMENADE ($17.50, #10) - Third fave for the Melbourne Cup if you don't mind! You could have had 60s when I pointed out he was belting up staying fields in the winter as all the good horses do these days.
#7 - GOLD TRIP ($46, u/r) - Hard to know with the Gestapo at RV will even let him run but if they do $46 is too big a price.
#8 - AWAY HE GOES ($22, u/r) - The current price is utter poison for a horse nowhere near good enough to win but he can plod home into the top 6-8.
#9 - CHAPADA ($85, u/r) - Only decent run on horse yesterday but we already know he is panels below what is required.
#10 - SIR LUCAN ($140, u/r) - The blast from the past returns - has to win his way in (not sure if they will even try) but there is just nothing else deserving of the list - can replace with one of Llodys if you think they can bounce back.

Sir Lucan can't win his way in can he? I didnt think he was allowed to race before the Melbourne Cup

 

[iluvparis]

Sir Lucan can't win his way in can he? I didnt think he was allowed to race before the Melbourne Cup

Can he not run in the Lexus? I thought he gets out of Quarantine this Saturday?

 

[54Dogs]

Think he arrived on Friday so would be close

 

[Jugada]

The problem is (as we saw yesterday) the rest are so even with nothing between them that most likely race day variance will sink you on the exotics even if you stand him out. The two I (and most) thought were lengths clear of the others yesterday were beaten out of sight.

Maybe but ill still back myself in to find them. No huge loss if he wins at $2.50 on the day anyway. Maybe not +EV but id still rather take the swing on finding them for the fun of it after the hours put into tracking dozens of horses

 

[FallingLiefs]

Its a race ive put a lot of time and effort into following all runners though so im not going to be capping my return at 6/4. Ill be standing him out and trying to find the best of the rest too. If i cant also find them then whatever thats the game. Still have to think he represents value to stand him out in exotics

Thing is here with exotics, It's a once a year type race where you may get 50,000 50c F4's with Incent 1 out from once a year punters or mystery f4 might skew away from him. Will be interesting to observe approximates in quinella pools vs actual expected value on the day to then forecast for f4's.

Horse going for 11? in a row is something we haven't seen in a MC for the general public tote.

You might just get to the day and pull him out of everything.

 

[Jugada]

Can he not run in the Lexus? I thought he gets out of Quarantine this Saturday?

I was under the impression those on that flight would not have the time to have a start prior to the day of the Cup

 

[iluvparis]

Feck it - I can't keep up with RV's insane rules these days - if he can't run just make #10 Dawn Patrol for the sole reason I am on him antepost and will just pray for Lloyd shenanigans.

 

[Jugada]

Thing is here with exotics, It's a once a year type race where you may get 50,000 50c F4's with Incent 1 out from once a year punters or mystery f4 might skew away from him. Will be interesting to observe approximates in quinella pools vs actual expected value on the day to then forecast for f4's.

The once a year punters chucking in random names and numbers in boxed exotics definitely outweigh those wanting to stand out the fav with others for mine

 

[HeathySure]

I wouldnt write off Delphi (as a placegetter) on a dry track and with a sit. Clearly didnt handle it yesterday .

 

[iluvparis]

I wouldnt write off Delphi (as a placegetter) on a dry track and with a sit. Clearly didnt handle it yesterday .

Pretty rare for them to turn around runs that bad (unless trained by Bart or Lloyd)

 

[HeathySure]

Pretty rare for them to turn around runs that bad (unless trained by Bart or Lloyd)

you forgot about George Hanlon!

 

[FallingLiefs]

The once a year punters chucking in random names and numbers in boxed exotics definitely outweigh those wanting to stand out the fav with others for mine

Could be, as I said interesting to see what we can get out of approximates.

 

[54Dogs]

I was under the impression those on that flight would not have the time to have a start prior to the day of the Cup

Correct


"The younger brother of Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet, Sir Lucan cannot race on Australian soil before the Melbourne Cup, as is the case for the other travellers on the second shipment.

Consequently, should Sir Lucan not gain a Melbourne Cup berth by attrition for new trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, he may instead contest another event during Melbourne Cup Week, such as the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m) on Stakes Day."

Cup internationals to touch down

Four horses heading directly to Melbourne Cup to arrive this weekend

www.racing.com

 

[iluvparis]

Correct


"The younger brother of Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet, Sir Lucan cannot race on Australian soil before the Melbourne Cup, as is the case for the other travellers on the second shipment.

Consequently, should Sir Lucan not gain a Melbourne Cup berth by attrition for new trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, he may instead contest another event during Melbourne Cup Week, such as the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m) on Stakes Day."

Cup internationals to touch down

Four horses heading directly to Melbourne Cup to arrive this weekend

www.racing.com

Lol fk me there rules are utterly terrible - thank god Big Incy turned up for them or this years edition would have been an utter embarrassment.

 

[frantelle]

Will be interesting to what penalty he receives. I wonder what Carp’s is looking at, he can throw a curly out there sometimes.

He smashed them yesterday but didn’t beat anything higher in the weights than he is.

What did VE receive last year for beating (the top weight?) AVD?

 

[iluvparis]

Will be interesting to what penalty he receives. I wonder what Carp’s is looking at, he can throw a curly out there sometimes.

He smashed them yesterday but didn’t beat anything higher in the weights than he is.

What did VE receive last year for beating (the top weight?) AVD?

0.5 kg much to Heath's disgust

 

[Hawksboy72]

I reckon he gets 1 or 1.5kg penalty.
Let's be honest he beat alot of average horses along way.
He gave weight to a 3x derby winner and beat him a long way.
Only 4 things can beat him the Cup.
1- A lightning strike.
2- Bad Luck.
3- A flukey Gurners Lane type ride & rails run.
4- He doesn't get the 3200m.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Reckon on tote Incentivise pays above $2.50 with nanas looking for value

let’s be clear here it’s a freak

it’s a 1.80 proposition

 

[FallingLiefs]

Reckon on tote Incentivise pays above $2.50 with nanas looking for value

let’s be clear here it’s a freak

it’s a 1.80 proposition

My thought was they might go for the easy return and Incentivise to place! A horse with picket fence 9 posts long will be intriguing where the public land on him.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Might and Power got 3.5 penalty to 56 for a 4yo for 7 length win I think Incensitive gets 2 kilograms to 57.5 that is not going to stop him.

 

[Ah12]

Is Moody just trying to play him down a bit and hope to keep his penalty at around the 2kg mark? Looking back on the run i can see why he would pull up a bit worn out.

It’d be a very underwhelming Cup if he didn’t come up for it.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Is Moody just trying to play him down a bit and hope to keep his penalty at around the 2kg mark? Looking back on the run i can see why he would pull up a bit worn out.

It’d be a very underwhelming Cup if he didn’t come up for it.

If he doesn’t run it’s Spanish Missions to lose

 

[HeathySure]

I wish you could bet on the penalty. Knowing Carpenters softness i would bet the 1.5kgs or under big time

 

[Mobythepom]

Starting to warm to 2kg as most likely, taking only CC into account their previous penalties under this regime Jameka stands out as likely comparisons.

If they're serious about handicapping they need to be giving him 3kg. It was one of the most impressive Caulfield Cup wins of all time. No chance they will though. I reckon 2kg the most likely but hoping its more.

Less than 2kg would be a joke

In the UK it's 1.5lbs per length and given it was value for at least 4 lengths yesterday then the starting point would be 3kg but when you factor in the draw and the fact that the second was in turn clear, you'd be looking at 4kg+ in the UK.
Appreciate it's apples and pears but surely time for Greg to take a proper working man's swipe at a just penalty.
If the horse is given 1.5-2kg you could sympathise with connections of the other runners being a bit pissed off.

 

[iluvparis]

Is Moody just trying to play him down a bit and hope to keep his penalty at around the 2kg mark? Looking back on the run i can see why he would pull up a bit worn out.

It’d be a very underwhelming Cup if he didn’t come up for it.

Yes and quashing the Cox Plate talk - was 3.20 into 2.70 on betfair yesterday - there is nothing wrong with him