Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[Mobythepom]

2 is fair. End of the day he beat average field. 2.5 would be over the top.

Would get around 4kg for that in the UK

 

[Mobythepom]

Nope - the weight is irrelevant - if he stays he wins.

Quite possibly. Even with a full quota of overseas horses he would likely still be a warm favourite.
May not need to fully see out the trip this year in any case to be too good.

 

[balmainforever]

F### Covid and politics on this forum.

 

[Slipps]

Where is Shane Zebra and Kyle ?

 

[Chism]

Peter Moody did not sound happy with the way Incentivise pulled up this morning and he mentioned it twice live on air to the boys doing the wrap up show on racing.com and it was the first time he has pulled up so poorly. Left a lot of his feed over night and very jaded after yesterday.

Got the feeling he may have come to the end of his prep but who knows really. Would really shake up the Cup market if Moody doesn’t run him.

 

[iluvparis]

Peter Moody did not sound happy with the way Incentivise pulled up this morning and he mentioned it twice live on air to the boys doing the wrap up show on racing.com and it was the first time he has pulled up so poorly. Left a lot of his feed over night and very jaded after yesterday.

Got the feeling he may have come to the end of his prep but who knows really. Would really shake up the Cup market if Moody doesn’t run him.

Zero chance he is not running. Moods just pouring cold water on the nonsense cox plate back up chat. Smart move

 

[Chism]

Zero chance he is not running. Moods just pouring cold water on the nonsense cox plate back up chat. Smart move

Hope so cause the race needs him.

 

[iluvparis]

Hope so cause the race needs him.

He is rock solid on Betfair at his lowest ever price suggesting no real issue

 

[iluvparis]

 

[Jugada]

If they're serious about handicapping they need to be giving him 3kg. It was one of the most impressive Caulfield Cup wins of all time. No chance they will though. I reckon 2kg the most likely but hoping its more.

Less than 2kg would be a joke

 

[Chism]

Has to get a 2kg penalty for sure after yesterday’s demolition of the field.

They could give him 4 and I still reckon he wins.

 

[FallingLiefs]

If they're serious about handicapping they need to be giving him 3kg. It was one of the most impressive Caulfield Cup wins of all time. No chance they will though. I reckon 2kg the most likely but hoping its more.

Less than 2kg would be a joke

Starting to warm to 2kg as most likely, taking only CC into account their previous penalties under this regime Jameka stands out as likely comparisons.

 

[Chism]

If anyone is looking for horses to play around Incentivise in the Cup with exotics here is what all the jockeys said after the Caulfield Cup.

Post-race jockey reports after the Group 1 Caulfield Cup

These are the post-race performance comments by the thoroughbred Horse racing jockeys in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup.

www.google.com.au

Persan / Montefillia and Great House all have interesting jockey comments.

 

[FallingLiefs]

If anyone is looking for horses to play around Incentivise in the Cup with exotics here is what all the jockeys said after the Caulfield Cup.

Post-race jockey reports after the Group 1 Caulfield Cup

These are the post-race performance comments by the thoroughbred Horse racing jockeys in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup.

www.google.com.au

Persan / Montefillia and Great House all have interesting jockey comments.

I was on Montefilia and she was plain with a perfect run, probably did her best the week before and has regressed slightly. It's almost a year of who to forgive the most. Herbert power, Bart all those horses either ran poorly there or poorly in the cup or not going to the MC.

 

[Slipps]

Peter Moody did not sound happy with the way Incentivise pulled up this morning and he mentioned it twice live on air to the boys doing the wrap up show on racing.com and it was the first time he has pulled up so poorly. Left a lot of his feed over night and very jaded after yesterday.

Got the feeling he may have come to the end of his prep but who knows really. Would really shake up the Cup market if Moody doesn’t run him.

All he said really was he didn’t finish all his feed like he normally does but besides that he was fine.

 

[Chism]

I was on Montefilia and she was plain with a perfect run, probably did her best the week before and has regressed slightly. It's almost a year of who to forgive the most. Herbert power, Bart all those horses either ran poorly there or poorly in the cup or not going to the MC.

Not so much in the Cup so to speak but Great House and She’s Ideel are ones to follow over the Spring.

 

[Jugada]

I wont be taking 6/4 about anything in a Melbourne Cup so going to have to find ones for exotics etc for Incent bets but my god it looks a task. So many flops

 

[iluvparis]

I wont be taking 6/4 about anything in a Melbourne Cup so going to have to find ones for exotics etc for Incent bets but my god it looks a task. So many flops

Perhaps you should just take the 6/4 then. Like yesterday

 

[FallingLiefs]

I wont be taking 6/4 about anything in a Melbourne Cup so going to have to find ones for exotics etc for Incent bets but my god it looks a task. So many flops

I am so utterly confident he runs 3200 its tempting but, yeah you just can't lap up the price in a MC as a probable topweight or close to off his GF.

 

[Jugada]

Perhaps you should just take the 6/4 then. Like yesterday

Nah not backing anything at 6/4 in a Cup. After spending 6 months following the form ill be backing myself in for a better return than that on the day

 

[iluvparis]

Nah not backing anything at 6/4 in a Cup. After spending 6 months following the form ill be backing myself in for a better return than that on the day

This is the same trap people fell into yesterday - I can't take 6/4 in a Caulfield Cup - I can't take 6/4 from gate 20. The Cup is just a race like any other and on form the 6/4 is an obvious bet as it was yesterday

 

[FallingLiefs]

This could possibly be one of the greatest holds on a single horse ever for these Australian corporate bookmakers.

It's unfathomable they are going to let you on for value, and if they dont the big punters will make sure of it.

 

[Jugada]

This is the same trap people fell into yesterday - I can't take 6/4 in a Caulfield Cup - I can't take 6/4 from gate 20. The Cup is just a race like any other and on form the 6/4 is an obvious bet as it was yesterday

Its a race ive put a lot of time and effort into following all runners though so im not going to be capping my return at 6/4. Ill be standing him out and trying to find the best of the rest too. If i cant also find them then whatever thats the game. Still have to think he represents value to stand him out in exotics

 

[iluvparis]

POWER RANKINGS - DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC

Can't believe I wasted so much time trying order horses to finish behind the champ

#1 - INCENTIVISE (Betfair $3, Last week #1) - Already firmed half a cent in the last 12 hours on the fair as people wake up to the fact that as long as he stays this is a complete and utter moral regardless of the penalty.
#2 - VERRY ELLEEGANT ($32, #4) - Outside the fave and Spanish Mission will be the only decent horse in the race if she lines up. The price is huge as she probably starts third fave if she goes there after the Cox Plate
#3 - SPANISH MISSION ($7.60, #6) - Onto the podium this week with everything going utter dogshit - won't have the turn of foot to trouble the fave but it is only going to take staying the trip with half remote ability to place this year.
#4 - TWILIGHT PAYMENT ($20, #8) - Won last year and outside the fave this years edition is lengths weaker - in terribly at the weights however which will stop him defending his title
#5 - PERSAN ($29, u/r) - An honest battler who can challenge his top 4 finish last year - nowhere near good enough to win though as we saw yesterday
#6 - GRAND PROMENADE ($17.50, #10) - Third fave for the Melbourne Cup if you don't mind! You could have had 60s when I pointed out he was belting up staying fields in the winter as all the good horses do these days.
#7 - GOLD TRIP ($46, u/r) - Hard to know with the Gestapo at RV will even let him run but if they do $46 is too big a price.
#8 - AWAY HE GOES ($22, u/r) - The current price is utter poison for a horse nowhere near good enough to win but he can plod home into the top 6-8.
#9 - CHAPADA ($85, u/r) - Only decent run on horse yesterday but we already know he is panels below what is required.
#10 - SIR LUCAN ($140, u/r) - The blast from the past returns - has to win his way in (not sure if they will even try) but there is just nothing else deserving of the list - can replace with one of Llodys if you think they can bounce back.

 

[iluvparis]

Its a race ive put a lot of time and effort into following all runners though so im not going to be capping my return at 6/4. Ill be standing him out and trying to find the best of the rest too. If i cant also find them then whatever thats the game. Still have to think he represents value to stand him out in exotics

The problem is (as we saw yesterday) the rest are so even with nothing between them that most likely race day variance will sink you on the exotics even if you stand him out. The two I (and most) thought were lengths clear of the others yesterday were beaten out of sight.