Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[FallingLiefs]

Where the hell is Il Paradiso?
Dead or what…

Done a tendon and in rehab, would be huge return if he got to a cup but is a slim chance. Also those NH 3yo's haven't had a history of kicking on without the weight relief even when sound. Cross Counter probs best of them but struggled at top level. He's probably been nominated as they burnt a serious amount of cash to get him and its a drop in the ocean. Would be looking toward Sydney IMO.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

If by dead you mean $26 with TAB then yes...possible moral?

Legit haven’t heard it mentioned

 

[Gavin Excell]

Had a closer look and yeah it’s underwhelming

Real pity the lack of Europeans and no Japanese at all across the big 3.

I reckon I’m going to back the McKinnon winner for the Cup

 

[iluvparis]

In all seriousness can see the Cups double going off this year with no fresh shooters coming in

 

[Gavin Excell]

Oh and the Qld Oaks winner in the C Cup

 

[Jugada]

Maher/Eustace going heavy on the quantity over quality system. So many dregs to choose from

 

[iluvparis]

Maher/Eustace going heavy on the quantity over quality system. So many dregs to choose from

Grand Promenade $26 - jesus wept

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Nice. All my Hosier and Mr Mooj bets have been voided by SB.

 

[iluvparis]

Nice. All my Hosier and Mr Mooj bets have been voided by SB.

Beauty of a pre nom market - free hits.

 

[Slipps]

VE still $11 the Cox plate on sports. You have to take that given the noms. Legit goes $8 once people realise

 

[plays tall 1]

Verry Elleegant at $34 with Sportsbet looks great value. Waller has indicated they’re likely to go there if she gets a decent weight. Wants the same as last year, which was 55.5. Presumably Twilight Payment or Sir Dragonet get 58, so I think she’ll get 55.5 or 56. You could make a case for more but I think RV will want her in.

Surefire will need to qualify and lift its rating to get in.

Lone Eagle a huge chance if he comes. Aquis are part-owners so who knows?

Prince of Arran a big chance if he comes.

Dawn Patrol and Pondus are obvious chances in the right camp.

For rough chances I’m keeping an eye on San Huberto and Nancho. Obviously there are queries on some aspects of their form but at write your own ticket odds they are worth thought.

San Huberto is qualified and will make the field. He was putrid at Geelong but he ran well against Realm of Flowers carrying 61kgs over 2 miles. Pattern against him in the Australian Cup but he rattled home in 34.18. Deane Lester and Dean Elliott, both good judges, have flagged him as one to watch.

Nancho isn’t qualified but, if he ticks that box, his rating should get him in. He won a Group 1 in Germany over 2400m beating Ashrun and subsequent G1 winner Donjah. Not thrilled with A Cummings as trainer though.

 

[iluvparis]

Verry Elleegant at $34 with Sportsbet looks great value. Waller has indicated they’re likely to go there if she gets a decent weight. Wants the same as last year, which was 55.5. Presumably Twilight Payment or Sir Dragonet get 58, so I think she’ll get 55.5 or 56. You could make a case for more but I think RV will want her in.

Surefire will need to qualify and lift its rating to get in.

Lone Eagle a huge chance if he comes. Aquis are part-owners so who knows?

Prince of Arran a big chance if he comes.

Dawn Patrol and Pondus are obvious chances in the right camp.

For rough chances I’m keeping an eye on San Huberto and Nancho. Obviously there are queries on some aspects of their form but at write your own ticket odds they are worth thought.

San Huberto is qualified and will make the field. He was putrid at Geelong but he ran well against Realm of Flowers carrying 61kgs over 2 miles. Pattern against him in the Australian Cup but he rattled home in 34.18. Deane Lester and Dean Elliott, both good judges, have flagged him as one to watch.

Nancho isn’t qualified but, if he ticks that box, his rating should get him in. He won a Group 1 in Germany over 2400m beating Ashrun and subsequent G1 winner Donjah. Not thrilled with A Cummings as trainer though.

Yeah VE at $34 is a completely fine bet to go with the Cox Plate bet. Sir D even a bet at 50s - they are the two best locals by panels on form.

POA has had every possible to win it and hasn't been able to - won't break through as a 90yo cripple this year

Pondus has none - couldn't even win a Bendigo Cup against Princess Jenni

San Huberto and Nancho are complete slowies (as I declared accurately last year) that will be lapped - people keep falling into these horses and they never ever give a shout. The French and German form is utter trash - how have people not realised this.

 

[plays tall 1]

Yeah VE at $34 is a completely fine bet to go with the Cox Plate bet. Sir D even a bet at 50s - they are the two best locals by panels on form.

POA has had every possible to win it and hasn't been able to - won't break through as a 90yo cripple this year

Pondus has none - couldn't even win a Bendigo Cup against Princess Jenni

San Huberto and Nancho are complete slowies (as I declared accurately last year) that will be lapped - people keep falling into these horses and they never ever give a shout. The French and German form is utter trash - how have people not realised this.

Last year’s race was much stronger than this year’s race will be. If POA is sound, he’ll be a chance again no doubt.

Pondus had no luck in the Bendigo Cup so the race is no guide. He was beaten by True Self after that, but she’d be a factor in the race this year if she was entered.

Nancho got injured before running last year. No evidence in Australia to conclude if he’s a slowie.

 

[iluvparis]

Last year’s race was much stronger than this year’s race will be. If POA is sound, he’ll be a chance again no doubt.

Pondus had no luck in the Bendigo Cup so the race is no guide. He was beaten by True Self after that, but she’d be a factor in the race this year if she was entered.

Nancho got injured before running last year. No evidence in Australia to conclude if he’s a slowie.

I don't need that evidence as I can do European form.

Yes Pondus had no luck at Bendigo but it was still beaten fair and square by Princess Jennie which is panels below what is required. He then couldn't win the second tier QE finishing a length in front of Chapada - he is not good enough as evidenced by his European performances this season.

 

[Jugada]

Nancho has too many crosses next to its name for mine. Form lines are questionable, long term set back and local trainer. There are a lot of horses around the same mark that only have to deal with one or two of those issues

 

[54Dogs]

What weight would ROF be looking at?

 

[iluvparis]

What weight would ROF be looking at?

Not the 38.5 it needs

Seriously though had 50 in Sydney Cup so would be struggling to get too much more than that I would have thought.

 

[HeathySure]

Apparently Lloyd is targeting the Caulfield cup with Twilight Payment

 

[Jugada]

51 i reckon. If Incentivize is looking at 52-53 after its dominant wins then ROF would have to be getting a bump up to 51 after it walked in the AR

 

[Jugada]

Apparently Lloyd is targeting the Caulfield cup with Twilight Payment

Hopefully. Would have very little chance of filling a top 4 spot and should get a decent share of support from blokes who would have no idea about it before or after the Cup last year

 

[HeathySure]

Hopefully. Would have very little chance of filling a top 4 spot and should get a decent share of support from blokes who would have no idea about it before or after the Cup last year

it makes no sense to me. As you say he cannot win the Caulfield Cup, i think shenanigans are going on

 

[iluvparis]

What was its SP last year? Not like it will be at the top of the market anyway. Probably goes around 25/1 shot again at Flemington

 

[TBellicious]

Maybe he’s already got his Cup horse. Dawn Patrol

 

[Jugada]

Dawn Patrol clearly the #2 seed of the noms and the best chance he has had since Rekindling for mine. Putting in the run he did after the gelding operation is a very good sign given the talent he showed at times as a 3yo.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Dawn Patrol clearly the #2 seed of the noms and the best chance he has had since Rekindling for mine. Putting in the run he did after the gelding operation is a very good sign given the talent he showed at times as a 3yo.

Liking my 34’s I got for Dawn Patrol
Also my CP/MC multi - Verry Ellegant >Dawn Patrol at 341/1

and the CC/CP/MC- Incentivise > VE>DP @ 2500/1