Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[FallingLiefs]

Winning average races that see you get an extra 2kg in the handicap is not a great trial for mine

Was tongue in cheek as you've also upgraded him in your rankings despite doing the same.

I think everyone has taken his hype a bit far off a moderate Makybe.

 

[Jugada]

Was tongue in cheek as you've also upgraded him in your rankings despite doing the same.

Post race win but pre weights

 

[FallingLiefs]

Post race win but pre weights

Good to hear you've got a few ahead of him again. I personally can't see anything ahead of it for likely winners, as of right now or 2 weeks ago.

 

[Jugada]

Delphi just keeps ticking along nicely with another improved run stepping up in trip and put in a good trial today for a horse that wants every bit of 2400m to see him at his best. Had to sit 3 back the rails today which generally isn't the Euro horses go and I'm hoping as he steps out in trip he will be able to take a more prominent position in running.

Amade just fair and would want to see a big improvement in the Bart Cummings - which we probably will. But it's hard to get too enthusiastic about anything behind the top 2 with Mirage Dancer and Grand Promenade finishing so close after awful runs out wide

 

[iluvparis]

I think Amade needs to place in a Group race to even pass one of the initial ballot conditions which I guess it would need to do anyway to be any chance. As such is horrific unders in the all in market.

As I said in the main thread though the big issue for those horses out there today is Incentivise beat Mirage Dancer 12 lengths in Queensland. As such I am doubtful there where any cup winners out there today

 

[Jugada]

Yeah if he isn't running top 3 in a BC next start then he isn't even in the picture anyway

 

[Jugada]

Realm of Flowers another well and truly in the bin after today

 

[iluvparis]

Realm of Flowers another well and truly in the bin after today

Shocked to be sitting here

 

[Jugada]

Updated rankings

Spanish Mission - Has been very well treated at the weights getting in close to the bottom of his range.

Dawn Patrol - Looks ideally placed by Lloyd getting the absolute minimum to scrape into the field. Just needs to find some form to know he is going well enough.

Delphi - Keeps on improving here stepping up in trip and doesn't look to have lost any of his overseas ability.

Incentivise - Great return run but has been weighted to the top end of his range and if everything progresses as expected will cop another penalty post CC which really takes the shine off. Obvious strong winning chance on ability though.

Duais - Nice closing 3rd in the Cameron to kick off her prep. Will get in with 51kg and is comfortably in the field already.

Young Werther - Another progressive 4yo who gets in nicely with 52kg and is already in the field. Nice return running the fastest last 600, 400 and 200 in restricted room.

English King - Still waiting to see my smokey go around again after a slight set back. Absolutely thrown in on his minimum with 50kg but obviously needs find form and win his way in as he is well down the order of entry. Extremely talented horse at his best though going around 3/1 in an Epsom Derby.

Amade - Got in nicely with 52.5kg but first up run was just OK and is absolute garbage at the moment in the betting at under 20s almost everywhere. If you want to back him then may as well back him in the Bart Cummings all up into the Cup because that's the race he is being aimed at to get a Cup run and if he can't perform there then I wouldn't want to be on him anyway and he's probably struggling to even get a run.

Surefire - I don't even know what they are doing with this guy. Knowing Waller they will tip him out for next year anyway but if he could win his way in would have the profile of a light weight chance.

The Chosen One - Nice first up run. Weighted ok. In the race. Just to round out a top 10.

Previous ranking casualties:

Realm of Flowers - Completely shit the bed in the Naturalism getting well beaten by some confirmed walkers.

Sir Lucan - Went terrible in the St Leger and is too far down the OOE so not even sure what the plan is now

 

[iluvparis]

POWER RANKINGS - All Quiet on the Western Front

Only thing of note this week is Sonnyboy not coming and Sir Lucan not getting a high enough weight to get in - otherwise very little has changed

1 - INCENTIVISE (Betfair $14, Last Week #1) - Almost getting out to backable odds on the fair - the weight won't stop him - if he gets the trip he basically just wins
2 - VERRY ELLEEGANT ($27, #2) - Another outstanding performance for Australia's premier WFA galloper - has settled closer both runs this prep and if she does that at Flemington she is in with a massive shout.
3 - SIR DRAGONET ($50, #3) - Prep concerns but if they pull the right reign he is in this up to his ears - in the Underwood this week.
4 - SUREFIRE ($120, #4) - Concerning drift on the fair this week - where is he?
5 - DAWN PATROL ($15.5, #5) - Well weighted if he kind find his Euro form but can he? Rock bottom odds
6 - SPANISH MISSION ($10.50, #6) - Monty to top 5, monty to be too one paced to actually win and into utter poison now if you didn't take the $34 when advised
7 - YOUNG WERTHER ($65, #9) - Getting keener by the week that this guy is a real solid smoky especially given that he is already in the field. I am almost tempted to pull the trigger on the $65 on betfair.
8 - MONTEFILA ($75, n/r) - Would have bolted in yesterday if not for the heinous Randwick track bias - is in the field and trainer wants to come here - thats basically all you need to get a slot in my top 10 by this point.
9 - TWILIGHT PAYMENT ($29, #8) - Last years winner but if he goes back-to-back with 58 I'll be close to giving the game away
10 - THE CHOSEN ONE ($42 - n/r) - Had his chance last year but the Feehan form was franked in the Rupert Clarke - he can run top 10 again.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

iluvparis no Delphi? Was a big run yesterday

 

[TBellicious]

Yes Delphi a bad omission. My top seed at the moment as I don’t think Incentivise will stay

 

[iluvparis]

iluvparis no Delphi? Was a big run yesterday

Was it? Couldn't run down one of the greatest nonnies in Oz history with every possible yesterday and the start before couldn't run past No Effort. He needs to win to get into the field as far as I can tell and from what I've seen he is no moral to do that. I tend to only include horses that are guaranteed to get a start.

I disagree with Jug - he looks miles off his O/S form and is racing the B/C/D graders - that Naturalism was nowhere near cup level form from mine and I am basically ignoring everything that ran it.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes Delphi a bad omission. My top seed at the moment as I don’t think Incentivise will stay

You'd have to be utterly insane to have Delphi anywhere near your top seed at the moment IMHO given he might not even make the field. We just ignoring how close up Mirage Dancer was yesterday? Every year there a few types that are lowly weighted and keep running places in win and your in races that people fap themselves over but they either never get in or don't do much if they do (think your Shared Amibition/Schabau/generic OTI runners in recent years)

 

[plays tall 1]

Was it? Couldn't run down one of the greatest nonnies in Oz history with every possible yesterday and the start before couldn't run past No Effort. He needs to win to get into the field as far as I can tell and from what I've seen he is no moral to do that. I tend to only include horses that are guaranteed to get a start.

I disagree with Jug - he looks miles off his O/S form and is racing the B/C/D graders - that Naturalism was nowhere near cup level form from mine and I am basically ignoring everything that ran it.

Surefire is nowhere near guaranteed a start but you’ve included him. Unlike Delphi, Surefire hasn’t qualified for the race yet.

Presumably Waller noms Surefire and Sheraz will be seen shortly or be off to the paddock. Sheraz has French form so he won’t interest you at all, but there seems to have been some interest in him on Betfair lately.

It may be a bit easier to win the traditional lead-up races (Herbert Power, Lexus, Geelong Cup, MV Cup) this Spring with the internationals unlikely to play a big part in those races.

Delphi can move as high as 34 (in the 7.0kg off benchmark band) in the OOE with prizemoney alone. Having said that, to get up that high on prizemoney he probably needs a win.

 

[plays tall 1]

POWER RANKINGS - All Quiet on the Western Front

Only thing of note this week is Sonnyboy not coming and Sir Lucan not getting a high enough weight to get in - otherwise very little has changed

1 - INCENTIVISE (Betfair $14, Last Week #1) - Almost getting out to backable odds on the fair - the weight won't stop him - if he gets the trip he basically just wins
2 - VERRY ELLEEGANT ($27, #2) - Another outstanding performance for Australia's premier WFA galloper - has settled closer both runs this prep and if she does that at Flemington she is in with a massive shout.
3 - SIR DRAGONET ($50, #3) - Prep concerns but if they pull the right reign he is in this up to his ears - in the Underwood this week.
4 - SUREFIRE ($120, #4) - Concerning drift on the fair this week - where is he?
5 - DAWN PATROL ($15.5, #5) - Well weighted if he kind find his Euro form but can he? Rock bottom odds
6 - SPANISH MISSION ($10.50, #6) - Monty to top 5, monty to be too one paced to actually win and into utter poison now if you didn't take the $34 when advised
7 - YOUNG WERTHER ($65, #9) - Getting keener by the week that this guy is a real solid smoky especially given that he is already in the field. I am almost tempted to pull the trigger on the $65 on betfair.
8 - MONTEFILA ($75, n/r) - Would have bolted in yesterday if not for the heinous Randwick track bias - is in the field and trainer wants to come here - thats basically all you need to get a slot in my top 10 by this point.
9 - TWILIGHT PAYMENT ($29, #8) - Last years winner but if he goes back-to-back with 58 I'll be close to giving the game away
10 - THE CHOSEN ONE ($42 - n/r) - Had his chance last year but the Feehan form was franked in the Rupert Clarke - he can run top 10 again.

I’m surprised you’re rating Young Werther so high. Only won one race off 9 attempts and brings 3yo Derby form. I prefer Explosive Jack to him.

Montefilia’s going well but I’m not convinced she stays. Well beaten in the ATC Derby and ATC Oaks and didn’t exactly savage the line. Ran well yesterday. Will be interesting to see how she goes in the Metrop..

 

[Jugada]

For mine there was nothing between Jack and YW on the line or in the betting for the Derby but Jack has to carry 2kg more for dropping his nose first. Is also shorter in Cup betting

 

[iluvparis]

I’m surprised you’re rating Young Werther so high. Only won one race off 9 attempts and brings 3yo Derby form. I prefer Explosive Jack to him.

Montefilia’s going well but I’m not convinced she stays. Well beaten in the ATC Derby and ATC Oaks and didn’t exactly savage the line. Ran well yesterday. Will be interesting to see how she goes in the Metrop..

the derby winners are always weighted out of it. I think he is a better horse than both derby winners but gets in much better at the weights. Easy to like profile.

And by high I have him like 7th. Realistically it’s only the top 4-5 that are actual winning chances (maybe just top 1 this year)

 

[iluvparis]

Surefire is nowhere near guaranteed a start but you’ve included him. Unlike Delphi, Surefire hasn’t qualified for the race yet.

Presumably Waller noms Surefire and Sheraz will be seen shortly or be off to the paddock. Sheraz has French form so he won’t interest you at all, but there seems to have been some interest in him on Betfair lately.

It may be a bit easier to win the traditional lead-up races (Herbert Power, Lexus, Geelong Cup, MV Cup) this Spring with the internationals unlikely to play a big part in those races.

Delphi can move as high as 34 (in the 7.0kg off benchmark band) in the OOE with prizemoney alone. Having said that, to get up that high on prizemoney he probably needs a win.

Surefire just in their on untapped potential treated as a raider. One non winning run in oz like Delphi has produced and he’d be gone.

 

[SimonFromSunbury]

Punterssssss what did big simmo say abot the Delphi genuine lock for both cups. Out further getting much fitter and will go out to the lead my question is how could he possibly lose either?

 

[iluvparis]

Punterssssss what did big simmo say abot the Delphi genuine lock for both cups. Out further getting much fitter and will go out to the lead my question is how could he possibly lose either?

One way he could lose is not getting into either race.

 

[SimonFromSunbury]

One way he could lose is not getting into either race.

he'll get into Caufield easily then win that and hes in
ps as i own the horse inside word going to Turnbull next start

 

[iluvparis]

he'll get into Caufield easily then win that and hes in
ps as i own the horse inside word going to Turnbull next start

Good - he will need to win the Turnbull to get in - I wish you luck beating Incentivise and VE

 

[SimonFromSunbury]

Good - he will need to win the Turnbull to get in - I wish you luck beating Incentivise and VE

Hahahahahahh its almost as if you reckon VE and Incentivise are close to Delphi thats the funniest thing ive heard all day thanks for that

 

[Jugada]

Can we boot the troll. This is srs bzns