Midfield structure - your theories

[favourites]

Mine is

Kornes, Pendlebury, Gibbs (4th-6th mids) Foley Masten Rich

I guess its very similar to the 1st except that My mid priced are a little higher.

 

[theone5]

A lot of talk on C.Masten a few pages back had me thinking.

Some coaches saying he is injury prone and is not a keeper, others completely disagreeing.

I have my own thoughts.
This is the wrong thread for it and this post should be placed in the "Player Comparison" thread, but it will undoubtedly get lost in there.

C.Masten is obviously hot on the radar for most, including myself.
However, he does not come with the "confidence" in terms of selection compared to players such as G.Birchall, M.Pavlich, etc, etc.
He has actually been IN and OUT of my team more than any other player.

I have tried to liken him to a similar player to gauge an estimated scoring potential for the year ahead, and who better to pick a player who plays a similar game style and who also plays for West Coast...M.Priddis.

M.Priddis
First year: 68.0 (2 games)
Average possessions: 15.5
Average marks: 3.0
Average tackles: 4.5
Average goals: 0.0

Second year: 91.8 (24 games)
Average possessions: 23.5
Average marks: 3.0
Average tackles: 5.3
Average goals: 0.5

2 games in his first year certainly decreases the credibility of the statistics but the trends between the two players are nearly identical.

Take a look at his second year statistics.
There is no reason why C.Masten can not match this, if not improve on them even further with more touches and more marks.

C.Masten
First year: 69.0 (9 games)
Average possessions: 15.1
Average marks: 4.3
Average tackles: 4.6
Average goals: 0.1

Second year: ???
Average possessions: 15.1 will definitely increase.
Average marks: 4.3 should stay relatively the same.
Average tackles: 4.6 should stay relatively the same.
Average goals: 0.1 can only increase.

He can only go in the northern direction, and with a fitter/stronger body, more TOG this year and a strong pre-season under his belt, he looks the goods.

He will either pass the 90+ mark, like M.Priddis did in his second year, and hold down your 6th midfield spot or he will rise enough with hopefully a good run of 90-120 games in a row to become a straight swap for an ABC and co.

I must warn you though, he could easily do a M.Murphy type plateau, going from 75.4 to 74.9 in a static second year.

The choice is yours.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

I think the difference between the two though is Priddis came to WC previously playing regular WAFL senior football the year before, and did quite well. Won the Sandover Medal the year before drafted IIRC. So he definitely was ready for the step up. Masten didn't get that dream lead-up obviously because of his young age & small frame, so I think he'll take a little longer to develop. Just my two cents.

 

[theone5]

I think the difference between the two though is Priddis came to WC previously playing regular WAFL senior football the year before, and did quite well. Won the Sandover Medal the year before drafted IIRC. So he definitely was ready for the step up. Masten didn't get that dream lead-up obviously because of his young age & small frame, so I think he'll take a little longer to develop. Just my two cents.

This is good.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and disagreements are good as it lifts the quality of the discussion.

I fail to understand how your point has any relevance though.
M.Priddis may have been ready for the step up but so is C.Masten, proved from his 10 AFL related performances to date.

I was merely using the comparison to show the similar style of game they play which consequently leads to similar Dream Team scores.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

This is good.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and disagreements are good as it lifts the quality of the discussion.

I fail to understand how your point has any relevance though.
M.Priddis may have been ready for the step up but so is C.Masten, proved from his 10 AFL related performances to date.

I was merely using the comparison to show the similar style of game they play which consequently leads to similar Dream Team scores.

But a more ready made player will get quicker to their potential in DT terms than a non ready made player. I also dont see enough marks especially, and i actually think his tackles will decrease in Mastens game. He may get more of the pill though. I think he will improve but he wont be a keeper and i think you could pay an extra 30 or 40k and find a keeper (If u pick the right one).

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Mine is

Kornes, Pendlebury, Gibbs (4th-6th mids) Foley Masten Rich

I guess its very similar to the 1st except that My mid priced are a little higher.

Love it, it brings up an interesting point about saying 3 midfield keepers is needed than working at what the cheapest the 3 could cost to get them. Could be uses for each position say 4 forward keepers than selecting the cheapest 4. Just food for thought came to my head. I love the 3 you have picked. I have a different 3 but am also trying a similar strategy.

 

[Lakey91]

I think the difference between the two though is Priddis came to WC previously playing regular WAFL senior football the year before, and did quite well. Won the Sandover Medal the year before drafted IIRC. So he definitely was ready for the step up. Masten didn't get that dream lead-up obviously because of his young age & small frame, so I think he'll take a little longer to develop. Just my two cents.

I have to agree. Priddis was mature age wasnt he? And he had experience against men (as GS said). Also, pretty small data range (with just 2 games for priddis?) to compare IMO.

See your point, and it is possible though.

 

[Athomas]

Well my mids atm are Bartel, Kornes, Selwood, Gibbs, Skipworth, Beams.

However, I have found a real smokie under 300K. Thinking of who to downgrade (Joel, Bryce or Kane).

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I tried a team with 4 midfield keepers rather than just 3. I had Pendlybury, Swan, Kornes, Gibbs as my finishing 3-6th mids. But than i thougt to mysef i want to finish with A/B/C in my same side. So i thought i would get rid of a player and get a forward instead who i see as a cheap forward keeper. Who has been my unique for so long and i think he can take the next step. So now im starting with Corey or Ablett, Kornes, Gibbs bringing in Swan, Bartel and who ever i dont pick to start with at at of Corey or Ablett.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

This is good.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and disagreements are good as it lifts the quality of the discussion.

I fail to understand how your point has any relevance though.
M.Priddis may have been ready for the step up but so is C.Masten, proved from his 10 AFL related performances to date.

Priddis before coming into the AFL, was used to the big bodies. That's why when he was given TOG, racked 'em up.

Masten was not used to the big bodies when coming into the AFL last year. So I think he'll take a little longer to adapt to be that A/B Grade midfielder.

When you said Masten could follow Priddis' footsteps (not in those exact words), I'm pointing out that it could happen but it is unlikely. That is all.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

But a more ready made player will get quicker to their potential in DT terms than a non ready made player.

Spot on.

 

[the_insid3r]

But a more ready made player will get quicker to their potential in DT terms than a non ready made player.

This is a very popular belief and on face value it makes sense, however, has anyone put together raw DT figures to see if the stats back this up?
So called ready made players might have the body to cope with AFL but we have seen plenty of 1st year players who might not have the body ready but ones who have had a huge impact on the game. It would be interesting to see what the stats (games played in the first year, dt points scored) show in terms of "Mature age rookies" vs "Young rookies".

 

[Decipher]

First year players who do well are either the midfielders or small forwards generally. KPP generally score low for the first couple of years before breaking out. Midfielders depends on their quality as a player, their tank and ToG.

Existing players can generally come in and score well in many positions however as we all know certain positions score very highly in certain teams.

 

[Cerpin Taxt]

This is a very popular belief and on face value it makes sense, however, has anyone put together raw DT figures to see if the stats back this up?
So called ready made players might have the body to cope with AFL but we have seen plenty of 1st year players who might not have the body ready but ones who have had a huge impact on the game. It would be interesting to see what the stats (games played in the first year, dt points scored) show in terms of "Mature age rookies" vs "Young rookies".

I can think of quite a few. Not all of them are best 22, but they definitely score better. Last year Dalziell and Valenti both scored well.

 

[Bease Lo]

Because it does change... players are worth their least at the end of the season. And you're right - it is all relative, but the numbers are pretty big.

Here's an example of what Kid A is talking about. This is historical data from 08 showing curves for players at 50K intervals assuming they had scored their 2007 average every Rd. It uses the real MN changes that occurred in the 2008 season.

It shows a slightly steeper drop in curve over the first few Rd's for the more expensive players; a drop in value of 45K over the season for a 450K player, to a drop of 15K over the season for a 150K player, so nominally a 10% reduction in 2008 for players who scored their average.

What it means in DT...
If you get a premium, they will have to outscore their avg by 10% over the year to be worth what they were in Rd 1, in other words the most premiumest premiums are likely to represent negative value.

NOTE - The curves are a little bit off because I had to choose players around the right price bracket who scored about their 2007 average in Rd 1 2008. FYI the players shown are: Chapman, Power, Salopek, Johncock, Maxwell, Slattery, Leuenberger and Bird.

So, there is your rule of thumb - a 10% loss by playing to their previous season avg. The more the player is worth, the more value they shed by playing to their avg. It means that Cox at 473K will lose 47K if he scored 107 every Rd this year. It means he would drop a lot more if he only avgd 100. This was one of the fundamental points in the rucks thread - think about what you are choosing; understand the potential downside of a "lock" player.

Thankyou for your great explanation Baxter. Gee it's a real tradeoff between value and scoring points. And then managing and timing your trades to get the best value and ultimately most points.

 

[Lakey91]

Midfield structure is still doing my head in.

Playing around with a few structures:

Premium, Premium, Keeper (potential premium), Keeper (potential premium), mid pricer, rookie

Premium, Keeper (potential premium), Keeper (potential premium), mid pricer, mid pricer rookie

Keeper (potential premium), Keeper (potential premium), mid pricer, mid pricer, mid pricer, rookie

Premium, Keeper (potential premium), Keeper (potential premium), mid pricer, mid pricer, mid pricer

So many combinations! And for each i can get a team which i am resonably happy with.

Just getting the right comibination between a captain option (and determining its quality - ie either bartel or a kane), mid pricers, keepers (potential premiums), and a rookie (to free up cash elsewhere), is very very challenging still.

 

[Athomas]

Premium, Premium, Keeper (potential premium), Keeper (potential premium), mid pricer, rookie

I've got that one. Maybe too much $ spend in midfield, but I like it.

 

[Saint KFC]

Right now -

Premium (A/B/C)
Premium (Swan/Kornes/Thompson)
Keeper (Potential Premium)
Mid Pricer
Rookie
Rookie

 

[_RT_]

Just a question guys, what $ value do you rank premiums/keepers/midpriced/rookies at? According to FF I have the following midfield setup:

Premium, premium, premium, midpriced, midpriced, rookie

The problem is the 3 premiums are all priced between $400-415k, the 2 midpriced are $300-390 and the rookie is $86k.

However, I see it as 4 potential premiums, 1 midpriced and 1 rookie.

On the other hand another line up I'm toying with has: 2 genuine Capt choice premiums (A/B/C), 2 potential premiums ($400-420k), 1 potential premium ($350-390) and 1 rookie.

Can you help me out here as its doing my head in. If the first one is as I see it 4 potential premiums then I'm probably going to go with the second one as it gives me genuine captain alternatives as the first one only gives me the one true captain in Cox.

 

[Houli2Gumbleton]

What are people's thoughts on this midfield?

Ablett
J.Selwood
S.Tuck
Gibbs
Haselby
Rich

 

[Lakey91]

RT heres what i would class each as:

Premium: 430k+ (Marc Murphy and higher, average of 97+)
Keeper (potential premium): I would say around 385k-430k
Keeeper: hard to pick but around 340k-385k
Mid Priced: 225k-340k
Cheapie: 140k-225k
Rookie: <140k

Thats just me though, and off the top of my head not really looking closely.

Cut off for keepers/mid pricers is probably sometwhere around that foley/kerr/griffen mark IMO.

 

[_RT_]

RT heres what i would class each as:

Premium: 430k+ (Marc Murphy and higher, average of 97+)
Keeper (potential premium): I would say around 385k-430k
Keeeper: hard to pick but around 340k-385k
Mid Priced: 225k-340k
Cheapie: 140k-225k
Rookie: <140k

Thats just me though, and off the top of my head not really looking closely.

Cut off for keepers/mid pricers is probably sometwhere around that foley/kerr/griffen mark IMO.

Cheers Lakey, using that breakdown, the second line up has 2 of ABC, 3 in the PP range and a rookie. Not a bad way to start the season. Would mean I could potentially get away with only having to make 1 trade in my midfield to have it set. Might have to sleep on it.

 

[Lakey91]

Yeh well thats just my thoughts on a general breakdown, in my view. Im sure alot of people would disagree but yeh.

 

[bombers own]

Ablett-Bartel-Gibbs-boak-Hase-Rich

Satarting with ablett+bartel because they most probably wont drop much lower than 450. therefore i would have to use nearly 2 trades to upgrade a mid-pricer(haselby) to one of them, as opposed to 1.5 to get a mid range keeper at a lower price. and there's no point trading a keeper for a keeper. i'll hopefully keep both boak and gibbs, but definitely 1 of them.

 

[Hodges]

Right now -

Premium (A/B/C)
Premium (Swan/Kornes/Thompson)
Keeper (Potential Premium)
Mid Pricer
Rookie
Rookie

Same for me too.