Prediction National Draft 2024

[fnerd]

I wonder would we look at Shanahan or Armstrong if either fell to us?

Shanahan probably but I’d seriously doubt Armstrong ,too similar to Treacy and amiss

 

[CapitalA]

if Tauru fell to Saints then id love to try trade up to grab him.

Saints would probably take him if he's there, they just lost Battle.

 

[King Huskii]

I wonder who we would move up for and what picks would it take? It's a risk with such a deep draft as the player yoi m9ve up for may not be any better than who you would take at your original pick

 

[mightymouse75]

Not really a fan of trading up
Play your hand, don't weaken it.

We were played by Richmond & Melbourne.
4 first picks and 2 seconds.
Don't need to trade up.

 

[Superkoops]

Our draft night trades to date:

2018:
34, 41 > 30, 57 (Valente - pick 30) - trade with WB

2020:
27, 59 > 30, F3 (NOD - pick 27) - trade with Collingwood

2023:
46,60,63 > 38 - trade with Gold Coast
38, F3 > 35 (Simpson) - trade with Richmond

We have paid third rounds picks (either current or future) to move a few spots in the second round (ie 34>30, 30>27 and 38>35).

Considering the picks 27 and 28 are going to be used to bid match, after the first four matched bids, could we for example do the following:
32 (Freo), F3 (Freo) > 29 (WB)

That jumps ahead of WC and is the second pick of the 2nd round.

 

[Taylor]

Just as a bit of trivia, our pick #30 currently is valued at 629 points. Next year it's 454 points, equal to pick #38/#39-ish.

So trading it to a club like Brisbane this year makes it worth pick #23/#24-ish to them in points saved next year.

Similarly, but in reverse, the two future 3rd round picks we hold #37 (Richmond) and #45 (Fremantle) are worth 297 and 150 points respectively - making them the same as pick #49 and #60 this year.

 

[Superkoops]

Just as a bit of trivia, our pick #30 currently is valued at 629 points. Next year it's 454 points, equal to pick #38/#39-ish.

So trading it to a club like Brisbane this year makes it worth pick #23/#24-ish to them in points saved next year.

Similarly, but in reverse, the two future 3rd round picks we hold #37 (Richmond) and #45 (Fremantle) are worth 297 and 150 points respectively - making them the same as pick #49 and #60 this year.

Good clarification on the points value.

Not all clubs are looking for points. Richmond did a lot of draft night trading last year and accumulated a bunch of third and fourth round picks. Whilst less valuable next year they traded a heap of them for GCS pick 20. It could otherwise just be to improve next years draft hand. I doubt we’ll see too many fourth round picks used to upgrade but 3rd round picks still hold some value for a small upgrade.

Personally I can’t see us getting higher in the second round. The depth and value around 25-35 is good. I pointed out that there might be some chance we could trade with WB. There is some chance we could trade with Essendon if Kako bid drops a little. They wouldn’t lose too many points dropping to our pick 32/33 and get a bonus F3 for their trouble.

Otherwise I feel it is more likely we trade up in the third round to grab someone we like who is still available at say pick 48 for example.

 

[Docker82]

Good clarification on the points value.

Not all clubs are looking for points. Richmond did a lot of draft night trading last year and accumulated a bunch of third and fourth round picks. Whilst less valuable next year they traded a heap of them for GCS pick 20. It could otherwise just be to improve next years draft hand. I doubt we’ll see too many fourth round picks used to upgrade but 3rd round picks still hold some value for a small upgrade.

Personally I can’t see us getting higher in the second round. The depth and value around 25-35 is good. I pointed out that there might be some chance we could trade with WB. There is some chance we could trade with Essendon if Kako bid drops a little. They wouldn’t lose too many points dropping to our pick 32/33 and get a bonus F3 for their trouble.

Otherwise I feel it is more likely we trade up in the third round to grab someone we like who is still available at say pick 48 for example.

Anyone done the maths as to where pick 67 will actually end up after bids etc. I can't be bothered as tbh I think they'll be a few live trades across both nights that'd make my calculation irrelevant anyway.

Do think that pick is well into the 50s though. Possibly even the low 50s.

 

[Superkoops]

Anyone done the maths as to where pick 67 will actually end up after bids etc. I can't be bothered as tbh I think they'll be a few live trades across both nights that'd make my calculation irrelevant anyway.

Do think that pick is well into the 50s though. Possibly even the low 50s.

I had a half hearted crack and it didn’t fall as much as expected. I thought it would drop before draft night, but due to list spots and club draft picks it hasn’t. Although a small number of clubs may use a pick before 67 to upgrade a rookie or pass.

I went with decently early bids in the top 22 and had it around 58/59. There are a number of additional Academy players I wasn’t aware of around late second / third round and Camporeale. I’d say a conservative estimate would be between 54-59.