Prediction Next Coach Sacked

[ShanDog]

Surely another season with 4 wins or less though would have him under extreme pressure?
I'm tipping 6+ though which would see him safe.

Another year like the one we just had will see the end of him IMO, but I really doubt that will happen. More than likely we end up with 6-7 wins and only a small number of blowout losses. That will be plenty enough to confirm we are on the right track and for Bolton to remain in the hot seat. From the outside looking in, a significant stall in the team improvement (which isn't the same as win/loss) is the only threat to his job.

 

[longsuffreosupp]

With the draw they have and the recruiting they have done, IF Lyon cant get Freo up this year, he will end up at Carlton next year. Contract means nothing, they will either put a line through it, or he will make a dash before they do.

Wonder if Lyon would contemplate the Saints again?

 

[juss]

Another year like the one we just had will see the end of him IMO, but I really doubt that will happen. More than likely we end up with 6-7 wins and only a small number of blowout losses. That will be plenty enough to confirm we are on the right track and for Bolton to remain in the hot seat. From the outside looking in, a significant stall in the team improvement (which isn't the same as win/loss) is the only threat to his job.

Yeh I agree. A 1-2 win season would be hard to justify his position. No one expects Carlton to play finals, but it's time to see some tangible, objective improvement in the form of winning some games. The odd upset against a higher ranked side, 4-6 wins is a only winning every 4-5 weeks, 4-6 should be the aim. Going 2-20 again just won't cut it, that's not good enough two years in a row.

 

[Zoom]

The Buckley news could see him get the arse

 

[joop]

Wonder if Lyon would contemplate the Saints again?

As much as I liked Lyon for what he did for us, think that bridge has been burnt both ways. Can’t see him coming back.

 

[schmuttt]

Hinkley, Richo and Lyon are the obvious ones but I feel Worsfold doesn’t seem to be under the pressure he should be. List is in the premiership window now, if the bombers don’t win a final he should be gone. Brad Scott is probably under pressure too, North have a list more than good enough to make finals.

Cameron, Buckley and Goodwin would also be under pressure too but all three will be contracted till at least end of 2020 by the start of round 1 so unlikely the media comes for them unless they’re looking at a bottom 6 finish.

 

[PT Bar None]

It's a different era now, so conceivably we could see another year sans coach sackings. With the Tiges premiership and Collingwood making the last game, patience is the new tanking. In previous eras both Buckley and Hardwick probably would have been moved on. But now they have one and nearly between them.

That said - I wouldn't want to be Ross if Freo have another wasted year. Similarly if the Saints are something like 0-5. Everyone seems to be on the same page at Carlton at the moment but I'm not sure how many 120 point losses Bolton has left in him.

The wildcard is the meadya. If they, desperate for inches and clicks, level the crosshairs on a coach during the dead of Winter and have it as a standing talking point, they might get the right board to flinch.

Which clubs did a cleanout of their assistants, Richmond style, last season? Those are the head coaches that would want to see their team improve. Only so many times that play will work.

 

[aussierulesrules]

You raise a good point there Larry about how many more thrashings Bolton will be able to survive, as B Scott was quoted as saying in today's paper that he expects to see more thrashings of the bottom sides this year, as a result of the new 6-6-6 rule.

Prior to this year the likes of Bolton were able to stack their backline if their team was under siege, or put extra numbers coming off the back of the centre square at centre bounces to clog that area up, but they won't be able to do either any more, and could consequently be sitting ducks.

Something else that won't help the young teams is the significant restriction in the amount of time those running messages out will be spending out on the ground.

Previously they could hang around out there and basically do a bit of on-field coaching, but there won't be time for that any more, and it will pretty much only be positional instructions.

 

[Brutalitops]

You raise a good point there Larry about how many more thrashings Bolton will be able to survive, as B Scott was quoted as saying in today's paper that he expects to see more thrashings of the bottom sides this year, as a result of the new 6-6-6 rule.

Prior to this year the likes of Bolton were able to stack their backline if their team was under siege, or put extra numbers coming off the back of the centre square at centre bounces to clog that area up, but they won't be able to do either any more, and could consequently be sitting ducks.

Something else that won't help the young teams is the significant restriction in the amount of time those running messages out will be spending out on the ground.

Previously they could hang around out there and basically do a bit of on-field coaching, but there won't be time for that any more, and it will pretty much only be positional instructions.

Interesting post. But what do you make of this table:



It would suggest to me that Carlton and most clubs spent 2018 beginning the transition. Three clubs stand out as trying to maximize overly defensive structures while they still could. Richmond, Adelaide, and North in that order. Wonder what impact, if any, it will have on these three clubs.

 

[Obeanie1]

Richardson will be next.

Reading about the feedback he got from the skipper after attending a leadership course in the US was a tad alarming.

Both he, the club and players copped a bit from the media about not communicating this issue.

Richo sounds like an old school coach who focuses on the negatives too much. That isn't how to engage with young players and win them over.

From his time on AFL 360 he didnt seem comfortable. Then again getting beat every week didnt help.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Interesting post. But what do you make of this table:

View attachment 622019

It would suggest to me that Carlton and most clubs spent 2018 beginning the transition. Three clubs stand out as trying to maximize overly defensive structures while they still could. Richmond, Adelaide, and North in that order. Wonder what impact, if any, it will have on these three clubs.

Very interesting. I had forgotten that they said last year that some clubs were already starting to go 6-6-6 more, to prepare them for the changes. Especially the teams who were out of contention.

Will be a pretty big adjustment indeed for Richmond, Adelaide and North!

Amazing how much more Adelaide started with 8 in defence than any other team!

Collingwood in particular and also WCE both did very well to make the GF going 6-6-6 as much as they did. Ought to be a much smoother transition for them.

 

[Brutalitops]

Very interesting. I had forgotten that they said last year that some clubs were already starting to go 6-6-6 more, to prepare them for the changes. Especially the teams who were out of contention.

Will be a pretty big adjustment indeed for Richmond, Adelaide and North!

Amazing how much more Adelaide started with 8 in defence than any other team!

Collingwood in particular and also WCE both did very well to make the GF going 6-6-6 as much as they did. Ought to be a much smoother transition for them.

Im still trying to figure how Adelaide will adjust. They spent 78% of centre bounces with at least 1 extra player behind the ball. Is one preseason going to be enough to work on their 6-6-6 structures? Hard to say if it'll have a telling impact but you would think clubs who play them early will be able to get a good run on in the first quarters. Likewise Richmond who started with at least one extra defensive player 73% of centre bounces. North perhaps a bit less so.

The "other" category is a raffle. Were teams playing 9-5-4 or 6-5-7? The percentages seem significant enough that they could have been extrapolated further but elected not to do so to save space (my reasoning).

 

[Nickoo]

I think we were lucky that we landed a gf against collingwood - a team we very much have the measure of atm - and a team that beat 1/6 top 8 teams in the season including losing twice against us.

Would have been a lot harder to beat melbs or richmond there.

Im still just as angry that the gf has been signed to the g for my lifetime.

Nothings changed in that respect.

Home of football, place it all started, largest crowd capacity. Can’t think of anywhere else it should or could be played.


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[kranky al]

Home of football, place it all started, largest crowd capacity. Can’t think of anywhere else it should or could be played.


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Well thinking clearly isnt your strong suit.

Stick to blowing bubbles and fingering your own bum

 

[GreyCrow]

Home of football, place it all started, largest crowd capacity. Can’t think of anywhere else it should or could be played.


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Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Sydney for a start

 

[Socrates2]

Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Sydney for a start

The Afl is everyone's home ground really.All the Melbourne clubs and Geelong play there at least 7 times a year and the interstate teams play there at least twice a year.It's a neutral ground really.

 

[Nickoo]

Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Sydney for a start

-Adelaide too small actually and metaphorically speaking.
- Brisbane, now there’s a laugh. Barely aware of AFL.
-Perth too far away, too small and until recently barely had anywhere to play it. Optus max out under 60k. Mmmmm.....right so we all miss out on 40k of people.
-syd, they don’t play at Homebush anymore and no one cares.
So we are left with a 100k crowd, where it all began and a state that invests in AFL with a public holiday. Where else were you thinking? Manuka, Launceston, Hobart Cairns, Alice springs, Darwin......



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[GreyCrow]

-Adelaide too small actually and metaphorically speaking.
- Brisbane, now there’s a laugh. Barely aware of AFL.
-Perth too far away, too small and until recently barely had anywhere to play it. Optus max out under 60k. Mmmmm.....right so we all miss out on 40k of people.
-syd, they don’t play at Homebush anymore and no one cares.
So we are left with a 100k crowd, where it all began and a state that invests in AFL with a public holiday. Where else were you thinking? Manuka, Launceston, Hobart Cairns, Alice springs, Darwin......



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You realise small is a misnomer

62,000 MCC snouts in the trough. Take them away and you have your 50,000 -60,000 Adelaide and Perth stadiums

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

-Adelaide too small actually and metaphorically speaking.
- Brisbane, now there’s a laugh. Barely aware of AFL.
-Perth too far away, too small and until recently barely had anywhere to play it. Optus max out under 60k. Mmmmm.....right so we all miss out on 40k of people.
-syd, they don’t play at Homebush anymore and no one cares.
So we are left with a 100k crowd, where it all began and a state that invests in AFL with a public holiday. Where else were you thinking? Manuka, Launceston, Hobart Cairns, Alice springs, Darwin......



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Troker Park would be fair.

 

[Nickoo]

You realise small is a misnomer

62,000 MCC snouts in the trough. Take them away and you have your 50,000 -60,000 Adelaide and Perth stadiums

Those snouts, a most unfortunate choice of word, pay for the stadium upgrades with their hard earned. Which isn’t what happens elsewhere. We’re in a socialist state here.


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[Nickoo]

Troker Park would be fair.

Actually come to think of what about Dingley? You’ve got the dingley international, Moorabbin airport for Pvte flights and a cow paddock. Perfect. You’d get all the hawks fans there which is more than fit in Perth.


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[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Actually come to think of what about Dingley? You’ve got the dingley international, Moorabbin airport for Pvte flights and a cow paddock. Perfect. You’d get all the hawks fans there which is more than fit in Perth.


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Travel though.

 

[GreyCrow]

Those snouts, a most unfortunate choice of word, pay for the stadium upgrades with their hard earned. Which isn’t what happens elsewhere. We’re in a socialist state here.


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The stadium upgrade is not the issue. The talk about small and the crowd only comes about because of the 62,000 snouts. And I'm not concerned if you get offended.

 

[triggering bro]

My tip is Alan Richardson. Not sure of his contract status though.

Obviously contracted this year but has a trigger for next year only if he makes finals. He’s a dead man walking.

 

[triggering bro]

It's a different era now, so conceivably we could see another year sans coach sackings. With the Tiges premiership and Collingwood making the last game, patience is the new tanking. In previous eras both Buckley and Hardwick probably would have been moved on. But now they have one and nearly between them.

That said - I wouldn't want to be Ross if Freo have another wasted year. Similarly if the Saints are something like 0-5. Everyone seems to be on the same page at Carlton at the moment but I'm not sure how many 120 point losses Bolton has left in him.

The wildcard is the meadya. If they, desperate for inches and clicks, level the crosshairs on a coach during the dead of Winter and have it as a standing talking point, they might get the right board to flinch.

Which clubs did a cleanout of their assistants, Richmond style, last season? Those are the head coaches that would want to see their team improve. Only so many times that play will work.

It’s now a lot more difficult to sack contracted coaches due to the soft cap.