NFNL Div 3 discussion 2024

[NFNL Member]

Noticed the junior competition has no percentage but instead win based ratio as finals determination and if 2 teams are on same points h2h between the 2 teams taken into account to decide who progresses to a finals spots.

Think maybe this could have been explored to rule out percentage becoming a factor on results but also allow reservoir and Lalor some grace as the motivating factor for clubs won’t be to come out and win by 200pts to keep up with every other club that does the same thing. Saves a bit of pride for both teams, allows clubs to blood guys giving them opportunity and equalises the ladder a little bit. Hard to do for one division and not all however surely with the complexity of the division 3 fixture it could’ve had some type of consideration to it?

I like it

 

[10571z]

I like it

Logical sense, so don’t expect the league to follow.

Fitzroy and Mernda end up on same points but Mernda beat them by 50 points although Fitzroy have huge percentage due to their extra 2 games against Lalor and Reservoir, Mernda absolutely should finish on top of them.

Sounds like a fantastic idea.

 

[Rusted nuts]

Logical sense, so don’t expect the league to follow.

Fitzroy and Mernda end up on same points but Mernda beat them by 50 points although Fitzroy have huge percentage due to their extra 2 games against Lalor and Reservoir, Mernda absolutely should finish on top of them.

Sounds like a fantastic idea.

In all honesty. This has to happen. For years this league has been inept in forward thinking, demonstrating any sort of foresight and when inequity rears it’s head they wipe there hands and say it’s too hard and refer to dishing out fines to volunteers to clubs because there paperwork was an hour late or missing a signature.

This is the most logical idea to problem solve the debacle that the Div 3 fixture has become. Hopefully one of the president s see this and put the proposal to the league and the league can park there enormous ego and embrace it.

If not hopefully Ben Higgins can produce and article to highlight it to fans of all clubs.

 

[tasmanlvr]

Noticed the junior competition has no percentage but instead win based ratio as finals determination and if 2 teams are on same points h2h between the 2 teams taken into account to decide who progresses to a finals spots.

Think maybe this could have been explored to rule out percentage becoming a factor on results but also allow reservoir and Lalor some grace as the motivating factor for clubs won’t be to come out and win by 200pts to keep up with every other club that does the same thing. Saves a bit of pride for both teams, allows clubs to blood guys giving them opportunity and equalises the ladder a little bit. Hard to do for one division and not all however surely with the complexity of the division 3 fixture it could’ve had some type of consideration to it?

Indeed this is something that senior basketball leagues follow. Match ratio, H2H then percentage in the event that H2H results in a draw seems about right to me.

 

[Denny Crane]

In all honesty. This has to happen. For years this league has been inept in forward thinking, demonstrating any sort of foresight and when inequity rears it’s head they wipe there hands and say it’s too hard and refer to dishing out fines to volunteers to clubs because there paperwork was an hour late or missing a signature.

This is the most logical idea to problem solve the debacle that the Div 3 fixture has become. Hopefully one of the president s see this and put the proposal to the league and the league can park there enormous ego and embrace it.

If not hopefully Ben Higgins can produce and article to highlight it to fans of all clubs.

You have hit the nail on the head. This will only be changed if Clubs submit it to the NFNL. They will have to listen and consider it if a majority of Clubs ask for it to be approved.

 

[Wastin time]

Not being ignorant but , when was last time draw affected finals outcome?
Prior to that St Mary’s we’re the best side won grandfinal, panton hill were best side & won grandfinal..
2022 Sth Morang & Laurimar were the best 2 sides & played off.
2023 Laurimar & Mernda we’re the best 2 sides & played off..
I can’t think when a side who played finals didn’t earn it , no matter the draw..
While I agree with the % issue referring to lalor & Reza in the past , I don’t think it’s actually affected much at all..
Historically the best 2 sides throughout the entire season play off in grandfinal in this division.

 

[10571z]

Not being ignorant but , when was last time draw affected finals outcome?
Prior to that St Mary’s we’re the best side won grandfinal, panton hill were best side & won grandfinal..
2022 Sth Morang & Laurimar were the best 2 sides & played off.
2023 Laurimar & Mernda we’re the best 2 sides & played off..
I can’t think when a side who played finals didn’t earn it , no matter the draw..
While I agree with the % issue referring to lalor & Reza in the past , I don’t think it’s actually affected much at all..
Historically the best 2 sides throughout the entire season play off in grandfinal in this division.

None of those years were uneven draws were they? Or nowhere near as bad as this year

 

[10571z]

2023 - even draw, Turtles lose to HW twice however percentage the factor. Even draw though so can’t base it on as much inequity.

I think 2022 it affected the finals outcome-
Kilmore play Reservoir (152pts) , Lalor (227pts), Reservoir (171pts), Lalor (157pts), Resevoir (108pts), Lalor (133pts) beat HW (11pts), lose to HW (46pts)

HW played reservoir only twice and miss out on top 4 by 1 game to kilmore. West had lost to Laurimar by 8 points during and beaten turtles twice (lost by a point in the other), had lost to Morang by 19,22 and 30.


2021 also could have affected it -
Although a cancelled season finals proposed to go ahead with top 4 where turtles were a game ahead of HW. Turtles played reservoir and Lalor twice each, HW had played reservoir once.

It’s not even about who “wins” it could be a team sneaking into finals who deserve it.

 

[bertybeetle]

It’sa shame that a Lalor and Resevoir are looked at by the rest of the comp as dessert that’s being fought over

 

[Rusted nuts]

2023 - even draw, Turtles lose to HW twice however percentage the factor. Even draw though so can’t base it on as much inequity.

I think 2022 it affected the finals outcome-
Kilmore play Reservoir (152pts) , Lalor (227pts), Reservoir (171pts), Lalor (157pts), Resevoir (108pts), Lalor (133pts) beat HW (11pts), lose to HW (46pts)

HW played reservoir only twice and miss out on top 4 by 1 game to kilmore. West had lost to Laurimar by 8 points during and beaten turtles twice (lost by a point in the other), had lost to Morang by 19,22 and 30.


2021 also could have affected it -
Although a cancelled season finals proposed to go ahead with top 4 where turtles were a game ahead of HW. Turtles played reservoir and Lalor twice each, HW had played reservoir once.

*2021 HW played Morang 3 times and Turtles once from memory.

 

[Rusted nuts]

It’sa shame that a Lalor and Resevoir are looked at by the rest of the comp as dessert that’s being fought over

I think the H2H scenario as opposed to the percentage outcome will help Reservoir & Lalor re-build there clubs/ playing groups purely as the 200 point thumpings won’t be the major incentive for clubs. The development of young players and managing older players may be the silver lining those clubs see.

 

[10571z]

It’sa shame that a Lalor and Resevoir are looked at by the rest of the comp as dessert that’s being fought over

Neither have beaten anyone outside of each other for how long?

Everyone could have played them once with a double up against one or the other and it wouldn’t have mattered.

 

[Deleted member 20240623]

hey mappa, heard a rumour that 80+ on the track at Parade? great result for the club!

 

[Mappa]

hey mappa, heard a rumour that 80+ on the track at Parade? great result for the club!

Numbers have been solid for sure. Great vibe around the place. Good mix of new blokes, "older" players, and Parade St Damian's Juniors too.

 

[10571z]

Numbers have been solid for sure. Great vibe around the place. Good mix of new blokes, "older" players, and Parade St Damian's Juniors too.

Will you have 19s

 

[OldFossil]

Big news outta Epping FC signed James Tadd, good recruit having dual div 1 premier player.

 

[10571z]

OP and Ivanhoe definitely looked after with playing Reservoir and Lalor
4 guaranteed wins there
Tough draw for Mernda but too be expected as they were runners up

Genuine question Thunder, but why should Mernda for example be expected to have a tough draw? Should it not be every side has an “equal draw” as possible?

Isn’t the entire purpose to give the clubs a level and fair playing field not try and increase the chances of one team over another?

 

[Thunder1]

Genuine question Thunder, but why should Mernda for example be expected to have a tough draw? Should it not be every side has an “equal draw” as possible?

Isn’t the entire purpose to give the clubs a level and fair playing field not try and increase the chances of one team over another?

10571z totally agree with, it should be as “equal draw” as possible however with 11 teams and only 16 games it does make it difficult and “too even” the playing field so to speak the draw will seem to be weighted.

I decided to look at each teams fixture and this is what I did. Based on 2023 ladder I gave each team points on where they finished eg Mernda finished runners up - 2 points, Old Eltham 3rd - 3 points, Kilmore 6th - 6 points Lalor 9th - 9 points. For the sake of the exercise I gave Epping one point as they have coke down from division 2 and gave both Old Paradians and Ivanhoe 10 points each as new to competition. Now the lower the score, the harder the draw (purely hypothetical) as we know teams change from season to season but results were interesting.

Hardest to easiest
1. Mernda 84 points
2. Ivanhoe 86 points
2. Fitzroy Stars 86 points
4. Kinglake 91 points
5. Old Paradians 93 points
6. Old Eltham 94 points
6. Epping 94 points
6. Kilmore 94 points
9. Heidelberg West 98 points
9. Lalor 98 points
11. Reservoir - 102 points

Now again a lot of assumptions made with the above points but it sort of proves what I said about Mernda having a tough draw.

Also I like the idea of no percentage, someone mentioned they do it in basketball and it works but teams there are very consistent ie 10 players and court is always the same
Footy totally different, more injuries, weather and ground conditions however I think it adds value as teams are fully aware of what situation is going into games eg first time they played it was 23 point margin, for team that lost, they know they need to win by 24 points to have head to head. Also for team that won first game by 23 points, they are doing everything they can to keep the margin under 23 if they are losing. Makes a game within a game so to speak.

Anyway that’s my 2 cents worth, not sure it all makes sense but hopefully you get what I am trying to say

 

[Worm4]

Reservoir play Lalor 6 times and everyone else once - seems the best scenario in my opinion

 

[bertybeetle]

10571z totally agree with, it should be as “equal draw” as possible however with 11 teams and only 16 games it does make it difficult and “too even” the playing field so to speak the draw will seem to be weighted.

I decided to look at each teams fixture and this is what I did. Based on 2023 ladder I gave each team points on where they finished eg Mernda finished runners up - 2 points, Old Eltham 3rd - 3 points, Kilmore 6th - 6 points Lalor 9th - 9 points. For the sake of the exercise I gave Epping one point as they have coke down from division 2 and gave both Old Paradians and Ivanhoe 10 points each as new to competition. Now the lower the score, the harder the draw (purely hypothetical) as we know teams change from season to season but results were interesting.

Hardest to easiest
1. Mernda 84 points
2. Ivanhoe 86 points
2. Fitzroy Stars 86 points
4. Kinglake 91 points
5. Old Paradians 93 points
6. Old Eltham 94 points
6. Epping 94 points
6. Kilmore 94 points
9. Heidelberg West 98 points
9. Lalor 98 points
11. Reservoir - 102 points

Now again a lot of assumptions made with the above points but it sort of proves what I said about Mernda having a tough draw.

Also I like the idea of no percentage, someone mentioned they do it in basketball and it works but teams there are very consistent ie 10 players and court is always the same
Footy totally different, more injuries, weather and ground conditions however I think it adds value as teams are fully aware of what situation is going into games eg first time they played it was 23 point margin, for team that lost, they know they need to win by 24 points to have head to head. Also for team that won first game by 23 points, they are doing everything they can to keep the margin under 23 if they are losing. Makes a game within a game so to speak.

Anyway that’s my 2 cents worth, not sure it all makes sense but hopefully you get what I am trying to say

One flaw i can see straight away from these calculations are the fact you have given OP and Ivanhoe more points than Lalor/Reservoir skewing the fixture complexity for teams. A more reasonable allocation for both teams would be 5 based on probably coming into the comp fitting around the 3-7 range? How does it look if those changes are made?

 

[Thunder1]

One flaw i can see straight away from these calculations are the fact you have given OP and Ivanhoe more points than Lalor/Reservoir skewing the fixture complexity for teams. A more reasonable allocation for both teams would be 5 based on probably coming into the comp fitting around the 3-7 range? How does it look if those changes are made?

bertybeetle definitely didn’t say it was perfect and just wanted to give both OP and Ivanhoe a rating. I agree with where you have them placed and have done a quick new calculation

Hardest to easiest
1. Old Eltham - 74 points
2. Kinglake -75 points
3. Fitzroy Stars - 76 points
4. Heidelberg West - 78 points
4. Lalor - 78 points
6. Mernda - 79 points
7. Reservoir - 80 points
8. Ivanhoe - 81 points
8. Kilmore - 81 points
10. Epping - 84 points
11. Old Paradians - 90 points

There are some changes for sure, as I said though it’s very subjective

 

[Rusted nuts]

bertybeetle definitely didn’t say it was perfect and just wanted to give both OP and Ivanhoe a rating. I agree with where you have them placed and have done a quick new calculation

Hardest to easiest
1. Old Eltham - 74 points
2. Kinglake -75 points
3. Fitzroy Stars - 76 points
4. Heidelberg West - 78 points
4. Lalor - 78 points
6. Mernda - 79 points
7. Reservoir - 80 points
8. Ivanhoe - 81 points
8. Kilmore - 81 points
10. Epping - 84 points
11. Old Paradians - 90 points

There are some changes for sure, as I said though it’s very subjective

Significant changes

 

[bertybeetle]

bertybeetle definitely didn’t say it was perfect and just wanted to give both OP and Ivanhoe a rating. I agree with where you have them placed and have done a quick new calculation

Hardest to easiest
1. Old Eltham - 74 points
2. Kinglake -75 points
3. Fitzroy Stars - 76 points
4. Heidelberg West - 78 points
4. Lalor - 78 points
6. Mernda - 79 points
7. Reservoir - 80 points
8. Ivanhoe - 81 points
8. Kilmore - 81 points
10. Epping - 84 points
11. Old Paradians - 90 points

There are some changes for sure, as I said though it’s very subjective

Looks good. I guess Mernda are a little higher in points purely based on the fact there are 1 point themselves so aside from epping every other team they play are higher points than them.
Lalor and Reservoir potentially lower on points compared to other teams based on both of these teams having high points to them.

Looking at potential complexities Ivanhoe and OP look well positioned to be right in the mix. Fixture tailored towards both of them and epping. These were teams predicted outside top 5 by most who now would be thrown into the ring based on the fixturing as well as recruitment to date

 

[kicking With the wind]

Epping (undefeated)
Old Eltham
Mernda
Fitzroy Stars
Kinglake
Heid west
Kilmore
Old Ivanhoe
Old paradians
Lalor
Reservior

 

[Champ or Chump]

Epping (undefeated)
Old Eltham
Mernda
Fitzroy Stars
Kinglake
Heid west
Kilmore
Old Ivanhoe
Old paradians
Lalor
Reservior

I think Old Ivanhoe would probably finish higher than us to be honest

Chump