Their list isn't that good. They've got half a dozen 32 year olds that have won premierships and are probably prolonging their careers for peanuts (Hawkins and Tuohy retired, also got Dangerfield, Duncan, Stanley, Guthrie)
The middle of their list experience wise are pretty standard role players like Henry, Miers, Atkins, Close. They've got a few younger stars like Holmes and De Koning to pay but no crazy bulk of young superstars.
Couple of big dollar players like Cameron and Stewart
I'd be gobsmacked if that sort of list in 2025 was over the cap even adding in a million dollar player like Bailey Smith
On top of the average prediction being 12th, it takes into account knowing they’re an extremely well run club with recent success and a high end coaching group. And despite those advantages, even posters who predicted 12th are now calling shenanigans. I don’t know how they can reconcile the 2 views. When predicting a ladder all you’ve got is the relative quality of lists and recent histories of performance.