Non Lions Discussion 2024

[McIvor]

An excellent video on the AFL fixture and how it is generated.
I knew the AFL used a Canadian company a long time ago.
Nice to know that they still use the same company and have a good relationship.

How the AFL fixture is built: 18 teams, two countries, millions of options

Go inside the complex process of creating the annual AFL premiership season fixture

www.afl.com.au

I have no doubt the merger agreement stating that Brisbane must have a minimum of six games in Victoria has not been plugged into the software? Would love to know what other biases the AFL has fed into the program to ensure the likes of Collingwood and whatever other big vic club that is the the flavour of the year is ridiculously looked after, barely leaves Victoria and plays 8-10 games in a row at the MCG. Seriously, if the program wasn’t dodgy manipulated, you might actually see a semblance of an equitable draw. That video was nothing but BS spin by the AFL presenting a BS narrative that could be see right through.

 

[Section 5]

I have no doubt the merger agreement stating that Brisbane must have a minimum of six games in Victoria has not been plugged into the software? Would love to know what other biases the AFL has fed into the program to ensure the likes of Collingwood and whatever other big vic club that is the the flavour of the year is ridiculously looked after, barely leaves Victoria and plays 8-10 games in a row at the MCG. Seriously, if the program wasn’t dodgy manipulated, you might actually see a semblance of an equitable draw. That video was nothing but BS spin by the AFL presenting a BS narrative that could be see right through.

Until teams play each other twice the draw will be compromised and i don't see that happening in my lifetime.
With 10 teams based in Melbourne and only 8 scattered over the other 4 states you are always going to have more games in Melbourne. I don't think that is bias, just the situation at present and into the near future.

I took the video as a very complicated set of parameters that is regularly reviewed before they go onto the next part of the draw.
Are the Brisbane Lions "must play 6 games in Victoria (i think you mean Melbourne)" in the algorithm i have no idea.

I assumed you watched the video, but did you take note of the complex draw combination number wise.
He starts off with stating the whole draw has trillions and trillions of combinations.
Mentions later to schedule a single team over 24/25 rounds has a number of combinations of 350 to the power of 25.
That's a number with 60 to 70 zeros in total.
Being this number below, with another 5 to 8 zeros added on the end.

 

[Elixuh]

What a doughnut

 

[Section 5]

What a doughnut

You would think players would have learnt something about duty of care by now.
Should get 4 just for being stupid.
Anyone know if Simpkin passed a concession test as that will have a bearing even though it should not.

 

[Nathan Barley]

What a doughnut

I’d give him 6. Dog act. Worse than Mr Peppers

 

[Elixuh]

You would think players would have learnt something about duty of care by now.
Should get 4 just for being stupid.
Anyone know if Simpkin passed a concession test as that will have a bearing even though it should not.

Dono but he doesn’t have a good concussion history

 

[Mr Ripper]

This is what happens when you spend pre-game listening to Anthrax instead of Abba.

 

[Section 5]

Lismore news informs me Simpkin is ruled out for the remainder of the match.
Dose not mention he was concussed though but most likely that was the reason.

 

[Elixuh]

This Saints Roos game has seen some big hits and about 3 melees. Do the players realise this is a pre season game and not for points?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Watching the scores while watching the Broncos. What's changed in the third quarter? North dominating by the look. Wind assisted?

 

[Elixuh]

Watching the scores while watching the Broncos. What's changed in the third quarter? North dominating by the look. Wind assisted?

North getting a bit better connection. And lots of frees (it feels like).

It’s also 22 scoring shots to 12 lol. North accurate.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Final average score through the practice matches is 76.94. On the strength of last year's relationship between practice match scoring and regular season scoring, we can expect 75 points a game this season. This will be more than 2 goals less per game compared to last season.

From what I've seen, teams are not applying nearly as much on-ball pressure, merely enough to give themselves time to get organised behind the ball. This is the Geelong model from 2022 as discussed previously. It's the antithesis of the "more speed" mantra all the coaches have been talking about over summer.

So if 2020 was a vote on attacking styles, 2022 was all about defensive styles. Sydney's out and out pressure vs Geelong's structure behind the ball. And the result there wasn't even up for debate. In fairness to Geelong, they do pressure to an extent, but only for as long as is needed for them to get organised behind the ball. Once that's done, the result of the contest is kind of irrelevant to them; they know they're getting the ball back in a few seconds anyway. Watching them do that against us live at the G last week was fascinating in that respect. At stages they'd even give us easy lateral marks.

 

[Viceregal]

Until teams play each other twice the draw will be compromised and i don't see that happening in my lifetime.
With 10 teams based in Melbourne and only 8 scattered over the other 4 states you are always going to have more games in Melbourne. I don't think that is bias, just the situation at present and into the near future.

I took the video as a very complicated set of parameters that is regularly reviewed before they go onto the next part of the draw.
Are the Brisbane Lions "must play 6 games in Victoria (i think you mean Melbourne)" in the algorithm i have no idea.

I assumed you watched the video, but did you take note of the complex draw combination number wise.
He starts off with stating the whole draw has trillions and trillions of combinations.
Mentions later to schedule a single team over 24/25 rounds has a number of combinations of 350 to the power of 25.
That's a number with 60 to 70 zeros in total.
Being this number below, with another 5 to 8 zeros added on the end.


View attachment 1918280

True but it also mentioned that as soon as you lock in a parameter (eg Pies and Dons play on Anzac Day) you instantly lose a whole bunch of them and that the vast majority of those are useless/irrelevant

 

[martinson]

True but it also mentioned that as soon as you lock in a parameter (eg Pies and Dons play on Anzac Day) you instantly lose a whole bunch of them and that the vast majority of those are useless/irrelevant

Let's face it they start from the premise of how do we get the best press coverage and the biggest crowds to go to games in Melbourne which means keep all the Pies, Dons, Blues , Tigers fans happy and build the rest of the draw around that. Derbies and gather rounds or whatever for the rest , leave the end of the draw open for some blockbusters. Some provincial games for the lesser teams .

It's not that complicated .You could draw the whole thing up in a day or two with computer systems being the way they are these days.

The one thing that goes out the window is fairness.

 

[Section 5]

True but it also mentioned that as soon as you lock in a parameter (eg Pies and Dons play on Anzac Day) you instantly lose a whole bunch of them and that the vast majority of those are useless/irrelevant

Thats true just like introducing an Opening Round and Gather Round.
Every single wish by clubs, 5 day breaks even allowing for media request adds to the combinations.
That's why there are trillions of combinations. So, the end result is a compromised competition.
Somehow usually the best 8 teams make the 8 and most years the better finals team wins the GF.

The AFL are all about getting crowds to the game and making money.
That making money bit is very important especially for the Lions

 

[Section 5]

Let's face it they start from the premise of how do we get the best press coverage and the biggest crowds to go to games in Melbourne which means keep all the Pies, Dons, Blues , Tigers fans happy and build the rest of the draw around that. Derbies and gather rounds or whatever for the rest , leave the end of the draw open for some blockbusters. Some provincial games for the lesser teams .

It's not that complicated .You could draw the whole thing up in a day or two with computer systems being the way they are these days.

The one thing that goes out the window is fairness.

I would love you to hop onto your PC and come up with a better draw that's makes a bucket load of money.
Then send it to the 18 clubs and see how they react.

Lions would not exist without club distribution funds from the AFL.

 

[martinson]

I would love you to hop onto your PC and come up with a better draw that's makes a bucket load of money.
Then send it to the 18 clubs and see how they react.

Lions would not exist without club distribution funds from the AFL.

All I said was it's not that complicated and fairness doesn't come into it.

Don't get what your point is re anything I said.

 

[BuntonRules]

Thats true just like introducing an Opening Round and Gather Round.
Every single wish by clubs, 5 day breaks even allowing for media request adds to the combinations.
That's why there are trillions of combinations. So, the end result is a compromised competition.
Somehow usually the best 8 teams make the 8 and most years the better finals team wins the GF.

The AFL are all about getting crowds to the game and making money.
That making money bit is very important especially for the Lions

This

 

[martinson]

This

The better finals team is always going to win the flag unless someone who hasn't played as well as them manages to do it. Somehow.

Don't see how an average finals team is going to even make the GF.

This thread is doing my head in.

 

[martinson]

The better finals team is always going to win the flag unless someone who hasn't played as well as them manages to do it. Somehow.

Don't see how an average finals team is going to even make the GF.

This thread is doing my head in.

But having said that there are many examples of the best team over the year and even the best team throughout the finals not winning it.

Just like a H/A game.

 

[BuntonRules]

Just saying the draw does not win flags.

 

[martinson]

Just saying the draw does not win flags.

With that I totally agree.

But I wouldn't think there was any doubt that it gives some more of a chance to get there than others.

 

[martinson]

Looking back historically it was legendary how Collingwood managed to beat the Demons in 1958 when the Dees were 10s on favourites. Basically an unbeatable team all year.

Everyone must remember the 'Colliwobbles'. They threw away around 3 flags when they were clearly the best team going at the time.

Just looking to this century in 24 years the minor premier has won the flag only 9 times.

Teams have won flags from 5th and 6th over the last dozen or so years IIRC.

My point being that whatever helps you get there is a factor.

 

[Paul Mac]

Webster can have 6 weeks minimum as far as i am concerned.

 

[mpal6]

I’d give him 6. Dog act. Worse than Mr Peppers

Nah they'll double with SPP got. It'll be 8 and Webster doesn't have the big name profile either, great time to make a statement for AFL.