Non Lions Discussion 2024

[Grasshopper17]

So if we win 2 of our last 3 games will that be enough for us to finish top 2?

No. In fact losing to the Giants potentially sees us miss the top 4.

Sydney can still finish 9th by the way

 

[M Malice]

Lots of big games over the next 3 rounds, games featuring 2 teams currently in the hunt for a finals spot >

Round 22 - Swans v Magpies, Lions v Giants, Dockers v Cats, Blues v Hawks.

Round 23 - Bombers v Swans, Giants v Dockers, Magpies v Lions.

Round 24 - Lions v Bombers, Bulldogs v Giants, Dockers v Port.
_______________________________________________
Some wheat may be sorted from the chaff this weekend.

 

[Grasshopper17]

When are they releasing the final rounds fixture.

Wednesday apparently.

 

[M Malice]

No. In fact losing to the Giants potentially sees us miss the top 4.

Sydney can still finish 9th by the way

Yep, another huge game for us Saturday afternoon, win and I think we are certain to finish top 4 and likely top 2.

In our current form I can see no way the Bombers beat us at the Gabba in the final round, very confident of us beating a De Goeyless Pies at the MCG in round 23 as well, we will be bloody fired up to bury them after what happened last September.

 

[Nunez]

Yep, another huge game for us Saturday afternoon, win and I think we are certain to finish top 4 and likely top 2.

In our current form I can see no way the Bombers beat us at the Gabba in the final round, very confident of us beating a De Goeyless Pies at the MCG in round 23 as well, we will be bloody fired up to bury them after what happened last September.

At this point I think we absolutely need to gun for 15 in a row. Basically all finals moving forward.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

I'll be pretty disappointed if we drop a game from here, we've got ourselves in a really good position to push towards the grand final and our last 3 H/A games although aren't easy games they are all very winnable. Hope if we do indeed drop one it isn't costly.

 

[BuntonRules]

If we want it enough, it is there.

 

[Mr Ripper]

Wednesday apparently.

Eff I hate this organisation.

 

[Darren Downunder]

Eff I hate this organisation.

Yeah. It’s amazing how much I love this game
But hate the suits who run the AFL.
Soulless money managers.

 

[Bucking Beads]

The Wildcard round sounds like it happening. Why does the AFL continue to make it so hard to care about the game?

 

[dlanod]

Of all the things the AFL ****s up, adding a couple of extra finalists who won't impact anything (and if anything will provide a greater advantage for the better teams) is minimal.

 

[Nunez]

Of all the things the AFL ****s up, adding a couple of extra finalists who won't impact anything (and if anything will provide a greater advantage for the better teams) is minimal.

Agreed. If anything it'll equalise the advantage lost by the top 4 for the pre finals bye.

 

[Nathan Barley]

And give us something to watch

 

[Grasshopper17]

No changes to the seeds this week!

#1 - Sydney 139% (#1 in attack, #1 in defence). The fact their loss was against a highly rated opponent lessens the impact on their rating considerably.

#2 - Western Bulldogs 131% (#2 in attack - up 2, #2 in defence - up 2). Coming with a rush now - their convincing win is actually further enhanced by the calibre of their opponent, meaning they get a massive boost to their rating.

#3 - Brisbane 120% (#3 in attack, #8 in defence - up 2). Bit of a surprise to see us get a considerable uptick to our rating as well. This is partly related to a better than expected performance against Gold Coast, but also by St Kilda eviscerating Essendon, who we are yet to play.

#4 - Fremantle 114% (#7 in attack, #4 in defence - down 2). Despite a comfortable 6 goal win, the quality of their opposition actually means their overall rating takes a hit. If only actual percentage worked like this!

Carlton slip 2 spots to #4 in the attack seedings. 108%, still #7 overall and #14 in defence (down 1).

On the defence side, St Kilda hold at #3. 95%, #14 overall (up 1) and #16 in attack (up 1). The model has us winning by 18 points, but probably doesn't quite do justice to the form the Saints are currently in. It also has Fremantle beating Essendon by 23 points, but again, this probably doesn't do justice to Essendon's current form.

If both these results came to pass, it would eat into our % advantage, but only slightly, reducing it from the current 2.26% to about 1.91%, or around 28 points.

We have a new top seed

#1 - Western Bulldogs 131% (#3 in attack - down 1, #1 in defence - up 1). Another compelling performance against Melbourne, but their rating is also affected by Sydney's performance, given they've played them twice.

#2 - Sydney 128% (#1 in attack, #3 in defence - down 2). I don't think anyone saw this coming! Their rating haemorrhages because Port haven't really been rated at all by the model. Results like this of course also affect Port's rating in a positive manner.

#3 - Brisbane 125% (#2 in attack - up 1, #7 in defence - up 1). Everything trending in the right direction this week!

#4 - Fremantle 111% (#8 in attack - down 1, #4 in defence). Their rating takes a hit because, well, the model still doesn't rate Essendon.

Carlton remain #4 in attack. 108%, still #7 overall and #14 in defence.

Despite their mauling, St Kilda actually rises to #2 here, more due really to how bad Sydney was. 93%, #14 overall and #17 in attack (down 1). Rossball just doing its thing I guess

The model has us beating the Giants (#5 overall, 110%, #6 in attack and #8 defensively) by 11 points.

I think next year I will need to have a better method of giving a higher weighting to more recent form. It didn't matter so much towards the end of last season because the top teams were still winning often enough to warrant their high ratings.

 

[Darren Downunder]

We have a new top seed

#1 - Western Bulldogs 131% (#3 in attack - down 1, #1 in defence - up 1). Another compelling performance against Melbourne, but their rating is also affected by Sydney's performance, given they've played them twice.

#2 - Sydney 128% (#1 in attack, #3 in defence - down 2). I don't think anyone saw this coming! Their rating haemorrhages because Port haven't really been rated at all by the model. Results like this of course also affect Port's rating in a positive manner.

#3 - Brisbane 125% (#2 in attack - up 1, #7 in defence - up 1). Everything trending in the right direction this week!

#4 - Fremantle 111% (#8 in attack - down 1, #4 in defence). Their rating takes a hit because, well, the model still doesn't rate Essendon.

Carlton remain #4 in attack. 108%, still #7 overall and #14 in defence.

Despite their mauling, St Kilda actually rises to #2 here, more due really to how bad Sydney was. 93%, #14 overall and #17 in attack (down 1). Rossball just doing its thing I guess

The model has us beating the Giants (#5 overall, 110%, #6 in attack and #8 defensively) by 11 points.

I think next year I will need to have a better method of giving a higher weighting to more recent form. It didn't matter so much towards the end of last season because the top teams were still winning often enough to warrant their high ratings.

I really enjoy your seeds, Grasshopper.
I don’t understand your model at all
But thanks for doing them.

 

[dlanod]

I really enjoy your seeds, Grasshopper.
I don’t understand your model at all
But thanks for doing them.

He's just sowing them where he can.

 

[Dalions]

 

[Grasshopper17]

"Retired"

 

[Dalions]

"Retired"

Doing a Hodgey?

 

[buttermuffs]

Lots of big games over the next 3 rounds, games featuring 2 teams currently in the hunt for a finals spot >

Round 22 - Swans v Magpies, Lions v Giants, Dockers v Cats, Blues v Hawks.

Round 23 - Bombers v Swans, Giants v Dockers, Magpies v Lions.

Round 24 - Lions v Bombers, Bulldogs v Giants, Dockers v Port.
_______________________________________________
Some wheat may be sorted from the chaff this weekend.

With 4 points and 8% between us I’m now a dockers fan for the next three weeks. If they can win all their games it lets us still finish top two if we drop a game.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Grasshopper17]

Doing a Hodgey?

 

[Elixuh]

Do the magpies need to win all of their remaining games?

 

[JasRulz63]

Do the magpies need to win all of their remaining games?

(Realistically) yep, and even then they're relying on other results.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Do the magpies need to win all of their remaining games?

No. In fact they can still get a home final if they win 2 out of 3 and other results go their way.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Do the magpies need to win all of their remaining games?

On the other hand, they can win all 3 and still miss the 8, if results go against them. So their destiny is out of their hands.