Analysis North 2015 and beyond

[GarnerSmash]

I use the term Analysis in the title lightly.

As it stands we are in the midst of a finals series and all eyes are focussed on the here and now, which is as it should be. However I am sure that the club is and has been working towards developing a list for long term success for quite some time. As such they will be looking for those players in the younger age brackets to force their way into the squad next season.

Looking at the list as it stands, and removing those who I don’t think have shown the ability to make it at AFL level, we currently have 8 players under 24 in the team that played * on Saturday night, with another 8 showing sufficient ability to make it as AFL players, starting from 2015. List below with age in 2015.


Turner (19)
McDonald (20)
Dumont (20)
Garner (21)
McKenzie (21)
Wood (21)
Atley (22)
Brown (22)
Mullett (23)
Delaney (23)
Harper (23)
Macmillan (23)
Jacobs (23)
Cunnington (24)
Bastinac (24)
Ziebell (24)

As of now this group will be form the core of our team for the next 10 years, although this will inevitably change as the years progress. Our next generation leaders will likely be JZ, Cunners, JMac and McDonald. I think we have most roles in the midfield covered, half backs and half forwards covered but lack in key posts and ruck, however I think we have plenty of time to flesh out those holes in the future list and things look very good for a sustained crack at it as long as we can address the long term issues in the key posts.

This view is further supported by looking at the next group, those who will be 25-28 in 2015, what is supposedly the best years for a footballer. In this group we will have:

Wright (25)
Black (25)
Greenwood (26)
Tippett (26)
Hansen (26)
Goldstein (26)
Adams (27)
LT (27)
Swallow (28)

By my reckoning that then gives us 25 players on the list from 2015 who will be capable of stepping up to AFL level who are 28 and under. We then can add the likes of Wells, Dal Santo, Boomer, Thompson, Petrie, Grima, Gibson and Spud to that list for next year at least. The long term issue will be replacing the quality in that group from the groups below, the quality that we are now seeing come through in the likes of Levi, Cunners, JZ, Atley, LMac.

Overall I think we are in a pretty good position list wise for a sustained flag tilt but we really need to nail down our draft picks from here and potentially attract FA’s to fill some key posts and some skilful outside run.

What do you think are the best approaches to fleshing out the list for the next 5 years? What should we be looking at addressing and do you believe that the young group coming through have the quality to push further into finals in the coming years?

 

[Event Horizon]

I would summarize all that by saying that our main issues, from list management perspective, are:

1) our 3 class outside mids are Wells, Boomer and Dal who are all 30 plus next year.

2) our KP stocks are in need of some work. Both in terms of quality and depth.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

I would summarize all that by saying that our main issues, from list management perspective, are:

1) our 3 class outside mids are Wells, Boomer and Dal who are all 30 plus next year.

2) our KP stocks are in need of some work. Both in terms of quality and depth.

Pretty much where I see it.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Do we need to start drafting KPD's now for 2016/7 to replace Narni and Hunter? If so, does that rule out moving for someone like Jaksch considering he would want to play games next year? Or do we look to draft classy units now?

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Do we need to start drafting KPD's now for 2016/7 to replace Narni and Hunter? If so, does that rule out moving for someone like Jaksch considering he would want to play games next year? Or do we look to draft classy units now?

Delaney and Tippett need to be fast-tracked, although Tippett is a little older.

Jaksch would get games given the injury history of our other defenders.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Delaney and Tippett need to be fast-tracked, although Tippett is a little older.

Jaksch would get games given the injury history of our other defenders.

Lets say we have a fit Grima, Hansen, Hunter, Tippett and Delaney to choose from at the start of 2015. Considering we would likely have to give up a first rounder for Jaksch, would he get a game? If he is not coming in straight away is he worth using the pick? It is an interesting situation.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Lets say we have a fit Grima, Hansen, Hunter, Tippett and Delaney to choose from at the start of 2015. Considering we would likely have to give up a first rounder for Jaksch, would he get a game? If he is not coming in straight away is he worth using the pick? It is an interesting situation.

Thompson and Grima pick themselves when fit, as does Hansen. Firrito is in surpreme form at the moment. Tippett and Delaney are back-up as of Round 1, 2015. Unless they 'train the house down'.

There isn't a spot for Jaksch when all are fit, but will they be?

 

[Kimbo]

Turner (19)
McDonald (20)
Dumont (20)
Garner (21)
McKenzie (21)
Wood (21)
Atley (22)
Brown (22)
Mullett (23)
Delaney (23)
Harper (23)
Macmillan (23)
Jacobs (23)
Cunnington (24)
Bastinac (24)
Ziebell (24)
Wright (25)
Black (25)
Greenwood (26)
Tippett (26)
Hansen (26)
Goldstein (26)
Adams (27)
LT (27)
Swallow (28)

Grey = 'unproven' in terms of experience and/or injury.

Wells
Dal Santo
Harvey
Thompson
Petrie
Grima
Gibson
Firrito

Grey = likely 1-2 years left, maximum.
Bold = 'indispensable'/star/role players that will be difficult to replace.

The greatest challenge is in replacing the 'star players' who are also our good outside users once they retire - and they're all in the older age bracket. In some ways it could be argued all the others have, more or less, stood up when they've been out, but they haven't all been out at once. Who, amongst those 25 or younger can and will step up to be consistent A-graders and/but, more to the point, who will or can replace the particular type of quality (good, outside ball users) that goes out of the side? Or does the team simply look different, and therefore, play different?

Still don't want to contemplate a team without Boomer and Wellsy in it.

 

[Winter]

I would summarize all that by saying that our main issues, from list management perspective, are:

1) our 3 class outside mids are Wells, Boomer and Dal who are all 30 plus next year.

2) our KP stocks are in need of some work. Both in terms of quality and depth.

Hard to argue with this.

Some big questions that need to be answered and will effect our drafting/trading strategy;

- Will Shaun Atley become a midfielder? If so he can take the batten from Wells/Harvey.
- Can Cam Delaney get fit?
- Majak Daw, Tom Curran and Robbie Tarrant? When do we cut our losses here?

 

[Deleted member 98541]

I would summarize all that by saying that our main issues, from list management perspective, are:

1) our 3 class outside mids are Wells, Boomer and Dal who are all 30 plus next year.

2) our KP stocks are in need of some work. Both in terms of quality and depth.

So your saying we should've drafted Rohan, Smith and Dayle Garlett. :blanklook

 

[GarnerSmash]

Delaney and Tippett need to be fast-tracked, although Tippett is a little older.

Jaksch would get games given the injury history of our other defenders.

Would you trade our first for him this year? Personally I'm not so sure. Its a tough one.

 

[Just4Kicks]

Good thread. From your list I extracted those players where there might be some question marks based on injury history or ability to perform constantly well at AFL level. I am not saying those players have not the talent to be best 22 but have to either prove first that they can be or get over form dips or persisting injuries. We will have to assume that some of those will not make the cut long term unfortunately. Assessing the risk of those players not making it should help with list management for 2015 and beyond. The extract is based on personal views and opinions I read on bigfooty over the time, you might want to take off or add some players.

Dumont (20)
Garner (21)
McKenzie (21)
Wood (21)
Mullett (23)
Delaney (23)
Harper (23)
Jacobs (23)
Tippett (26)
Hansen (26)
Adams (27)

 

[Flawed Genius]

I would trade for Jaksch. We're at the stage where getting a young, already developed KPP would be a smarter move than drafting one and waiting several years.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Would you trade our first for him this year? Personally I'm not so sure. Its a tough one.

Yes, I would.

Especially if it Pick 18.

 

[Northerly]

Absolute credit to our list managers, recruiters and coaches that such a list has developed on the back of SFA top 10 picks, GC/GWS concessions etc.

Unfortunately bad luck has conspired to cruel what would otherwise be depth in our KP forwards. For mine it's a no brainer that we should be chasing anyone under 25 and over 195cm who's shown the ability to play AFL footy (doesn't matter which end of the ground).

 

[Just4Kicks]

Good thread. From your list I extracted those players where there might be some question marks based on injury history or ability to perform constantly well at AFL level. I am not saying those players have not the talent to be best 22 but have to either prove first that they can be or get over form dips or persisting injuries. We will have to assume that some of those will not make the cut long term unfortunately. Assessing the risk of those players not making it should help with list management for 2015 and beyond. The extract is based on personal views and opinions I read on bigfooty over the time, you might want to take off or add some players.

Dumont (20)
Garner (21)
McKenzie (21)
Wood (21)
Mullett (23)
Delaney (23)
Harper (23)
Jacobs (23)
Tippett (26)
Hansen (26)
Adams (27)

Kimbo and I seemed to have had the same idea... I just took a little longer to type this up, had work to do for a change!

 

[GarnerSmash]

Good thread. From your list I extracted those players where there might be some question marks based on injury history or ability to perform constantly well at AFL level. I am not saying those players have not the talent to be best 22 but have to either prove first that they can be or get over form dips or persisting injuries. We will have to assume that some of those will not make the cut long term unfortunately. Assessing the risk of those players not making it should help with list management for 2015 and beyond. The extract is based on personal views and opinions I read on bigfooty over the time, you might want to take off or add some players.

Dumont (20)
Garner (21)
McKenzie (21)
Wood (21)
Mullett (23)
Delaney (23)
Harper (23)
Jacobs (23)
Tippett (26)
Hansen (26)
Adams (27)

Fair call on all bar Hansen I reckon.

Injury has effected Garner, Harper and Delaney to the point where we just don't know much more about them then when we drafted them, McKenzie is a slow burner I reckon and will end up replace Dal Santo I suspect. Wood has shown good signs and Dumont has been dominating VFL level with the club very happy with both. Mullett had an injury interrupted preseason and it is showing this year, but his best is very, very good. Are Jacobs and Tippett anything more than role players? Dunno yet. Patch has been bashed up but I reckon will be at least good back up for a year or two yet, if not longer.

 

[Just4Kicks]

Fair call on all bar Hansen I reckon.

Injury has effected Garner, Harper and Delaney to the point where we just don't know much more about them then when we drafted them, McKenzie is a slow burner I reckon and will end up replace Dal Santo I suspect. Wood has shown good signs and Dumont has been dominating VFL level with the club very happy with both. Mullett had an injury interrupted preseason and it is showing this year, but his best is very, very good. Are Jacobs and Tippett anything more than role players? Dunno yet. Patch has been bashed up but I reckon will be at least good back up for a year or two yet, if not longer.

I love Hansen, I just hope that this hip thing is not becoming something more serious, I don't like the look of it...

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

The injury situation makes me seriously worried for the future.

 

[jess_1804]

As good as Spud has been this year, and through his whole career, should we look at moving him on for the good of the team long term? If we could get someone like Jaksch who has the potential to play 10+ more seasons, would that offset the loss of Spud who has 1, maybe 2, years left?

 

[Event Horizon]

First decision we are going to have to make is on Grima and Firrito who are both out of contract. Do we give them both 1 year deals? Logic would say yes, given both are playing in the finals at the moment. If a young player is good enough, he will get a game ahead of them in 2015. But I'd say we need them for insurance at least. But I would very much like to add players via trade to fill these positions if it were possible, as we have a team that can challenge over the next few seasons. Getting a 21 year old would be preferable to a 18 year old, and he could play at least 10 games down back next season.

As far as KP forwards are concerned, Black and Brown are young enough and are looking ok. Black has Wood as an "understudy", so the third tall position is ok. Assuming that Tarrant is in big doubt to make it, Brown is almost irreplaceable and Petrie even more so. These are the two positions we should be drafting for IMO.

And classy outside mids are a definite need. Next two drafts are vital for the club, as we are essentially looking for 6-7 new quality players over the next couple of years. (2 KP forwards, 2 KP backs, 2 classy outside mids and a ruckman)

 

[Kimbo]

First decision we are going to have to make is on Grima and Firrito who are both out of contract. Do we give them both 1 year deals? Logic would say yes, given both are playing in the finals at the moment. If a young player is good enough, he will get a game ahead of them in 2015. But I'd say we need them for insurance at least.

I'd give them contracts for insurance even if we do get future replacements and play them instead of these two, at least for a decent chunk of time.

 

[Event Horizon]

Fair call on all bar Hansen I reckon.

Injury has effected Garner, Harper and Delaney to the point where we just don't know much more about them then when we drafted them, McKenzie is a slow burner I reckon and will end up replace Dal Santo I suspect. Wood has shown good signs and Dumont has been dominating VFL level with the club very happy with both. Mullett had an injury interrupted preseason and it is showing this year, but his best is very, very good. Are Jacobs and Tippett anything more than role players? Dunno yet. Patch has been bashed up but I reckon will be at least good back up for a year or two yet, if not longer.

I wish I shared your confidence re McKenzie. To me he doesn't seem to have enough footy smarts, and is slow and soft.

 

[Passmore]

I wish I shared your confidence re McKenzie. To me he doesn't seem to have enough footy smarts, and is slow and soft.

I don't see it either.

He does have a laser like left boot, but he seems to need alot of time and space to use it.

 

[Reginald0]

hopefully BMac has improvement in him
look at Greenwood look at Jacobs both have more rounded games that means less mistakes
so players can improve
they can also get worse but we can pass that by this week at least

THommo is likely to play longer as he has proved durable and didn't play AFL til 22
if turner and brown become automatic selections, and by Christ they look it well that's another 2 spots covered

and surely Ats is the outside mid
he is sort ofplaying there now isn't he?