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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
October Daily Punt - aka Hartnell v Winx #confirmed
- Thread starter FallingLiefs
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LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
I thought it was going to be like 26s with the corps and 40s with betfair and even then not that great of a roughie
you know how long this will be available for?
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
True but if you are looking for some value it might be okay. It's not a great field won't shock me to see a roughie win. No idea which one though
I presume by value you mean big odds? Because there is no value in it for me at the price it is
I would be pretty shocked if we saw a roughie winning it this year, none of them look up to it. I would be very surprised if the winner didn't come from Exospheric, Scottish, Sir Isaac Newton, Jameka or Real Love
STANDBYHIRD12
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Jameka getting out to very backable odds now. $4
- Sep 4, 2013
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The winner is Jameka or Scottish
- Jan 30, 2013
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- #461
Glencadam gold lol
Co-incidentally same formline as sacred master. FWIW I think sacred master deserved to be closer in the market to sir john hawkwood, it's just by closer I thought they should both be 30's.
Real love just keeps rolling in after I didn't get on last week when I had it as clear best bet so looks like I'll be on the third best 2000m horse in Australia in Jameka and just hope she stays out the 2400.
- Sep 4, 2013
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She stayed the Oaks at 2500 pretty well? And has been storming through the line at 2000 the last two starts?
Are you really worried about the trip with her?
Yeah SJH is way unders as well i think.
Actually starting to think Real Love is way too short as well the more i look at it. Last prep there wasnt much between her and SJH and he even had her measure over a mile and a half. This prep she closed off well first up but that race was a write off imo with long shots lobbing everywhere - Set Square was only half a length behind her. Then she wasn't up to it against Jameka in the Naturalism despite having a very good 2nd up record. Then she won the JRA Cup well, but really that was a poor poor race
I think she is the next one im going to put a line through as i cut it down
The Oaks is never a good guide to staying ability. Usually none of them stay it strongly and the classiest filly rises to the top.
I think she will probably stay in personally but there are definitely still question marks and her breeding doesnt scream mile and a half
- Jan 30, 2013
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- #467
RL is flying. don't let margins of naturalism distort too much Jameka had the gun run saved 3+ lengths on the turn while RL went via the cape and still put in big over the last 200m giving Jameka weight. i don't take much notice of second up historic stats but she was deserved of being a touch flat after that first run which was actually unexpectedly high rating. RL then smashed them into the ground last start carrying weight which put the writing on the wall for mine. i say it most years in the CC and am wrong more often than not but i like these in form australian mares.
backed her first and second up before jumping off when she stepped up to the 2000 because i didn't think she'd match it with the big guns over that trip i think i posted that early doors in one of these threads, retrospectively i shouldn't have thought that but i always worry about oaks fillies staying. i wouldn't be backing her if i didn't think she was a good chance of staying it, but i'm ready to rule out the MC at this stage (i may backflip after a strong 2400) but if i was Maher i'd take on Winx and Hartnell next week after winning the CC.
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Tarzino and Set Square both scratched from CC
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Both were as much chance as me running the 100m in under 10 seconds anyway!
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Yep agreed less likely for my horse(s) to run into them!
What makes you so confident RL is flying? Is it mainly the JRA Cup?
I thought she might have been a lightweight chance after that run, but wasn't expecting to have to take single figures. I just think the Dato was a mess, the Naturalism wasn't anything to write home about and the JRA Cup was a nice win but it was a very weak race
iluvparis
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Will be leaving out of everything. Waller very poor cups record too.
I'll be flying when race is run but no surprise if I land to find Jameka has won easily.
Savers on Exospheric and Sir I who look best overs of the raiders.
All raiders go in multis with Sir J, Real Love and Tally the only other locals I'll be taking
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
I had Tally a good chance to win until it was drawn in the car park. Not sure it can win after the barrier draw unfortunately.
- Jan 30, 2013
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- #475
All 3. Naturalism was disappointing on the day but can make excuses for her to be 4L closer (weight swing and runs) then it's just price differential behind Jameka who is probably going better than BHB. Upward sprial on high rating races, only horse with that profile from aus in that race. FWIW Jameka will be my bet now as I've missed out on RL price but I don't expect improvement from her.
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