Racing October Daily Punt: Planting a Cup on top of Everest

[iluvparis]

If Yes Yes Yes can win why can’t anything else

I mean POP won a Melbourne Cup but that doesn’t mean I start backing 100/1 Aussie no hopers every year

 

[iluvparis]

If you say so but I don't think he necessarily bombed 1st up over a inadequate distance where he was 2.5 lengths from the winner who is very likely the best 3yo in the land and who had the benefit of a previous run .... he will strip fitter as well and he trialled nicely the other day .... back in distance with a cosy run he could finish all over them if they go too fast up front .... and he has the weight pull and Waller Waller Waller in his corner

That’s a total bomb in my book. It did absolutely nothing and looks a conservative 10 lengths off Everest quality

 

[Peter Doherty]

Tomorrow, Mt Gambier R3 - Delcredere

Won't be long til this guy wins his maiden, was a bit unlucky last prep. Already with some market support.

Emphatic.

Track record

 

[windyhill]

Northam r.dub. R5 n, 7.9.11/2,9

 

[windyhill]

Northam r.dub. R5 n, 7.9.11/2,9

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

IWIW too good a price to ignore? Sits back, circles field and wins?

Was looking at Shinzo but booking of McEvoy and Jmac jumping ship doesn’t fill you with confidence.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

IWIW too good a price to ignore? Sits back, circles field and wins?

Was looking at Shinzo but booking of McEvoy and Jmac jumping ship doesn’t fill you with confidence.

Think About It gets the gun run, will get a gap on IWIW and think he’ll be too hard to run down

 

[iluvparis]

IWIW too good a price to ignore? Sits back, circles field and wins?

Was looking at Shinzo but booking of McEvoy and Jmac jumping ship doesn’t fill you with confidence.

I think it’s going to have to look for inside runs. As good as it is I can’t see it sitting back detached and looping the entire field on a good track. Enough in the price to find out.

Shinzo is dead set legless and has absolutely none. It should be 150/1

 

[Joker91]

IWIW too good a price to ignore? Sits back, circles field and wins?

Was looking at Shinzo but booking of McEvoy and Jmac jumping ship doesn’t fill you with confidence.

Yes.
Has panels on most of these. Will sit midfield at worst IMO and will be too good for this lot.

 

[Sockeye]

Be interesting to see what Nolen does with IWIW after Moody put the mozz on him with the barrier draw. Just drop out to last then circle the field? Tough to win like that against high quality sprinters on a fast deck. Might be best to jump out and ride on instinct, just has to get off the fence at some stage?
I don't recall him running midfield in a race before, always comes from way back, not sure what his manners are like to race like that.

 

[iluvparis]

Be interesting to see what Nolen does with IWIW after Moody put the mozz on him with the barrier draw. Just drop out to last then circle the field? Tough to win like that against high quality sprinters on a fast deck. Might be best to jump out and ride on instinct, just has to get off the fence at some stage?
I don't recall him running midfield in a race before, always comes from way back, not sure what his manners are like to race like that.

He raced midfield in the Memsie from gate 1.

He will have to be a freak to circle them from last on gate 1 given the likely track pace and race shape

 

[Joker91]

Just worse then midfield in golden eagle as well.

 

[Suncraze]

Randwick R7 PRIVATE EYE $6.50/$2.45 Lads
IN SECRET $12 BetRight

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Home Hill, another part of Australia I wouldn't know exist, if not being a degenerate. Gambling truly is a great life tool.

 

[Slipps]

Randwick R7 PRIVATE EYE $6.50/$2.45 Lads
IN SECRET $12 BetRight

Thanks Benny

 

[54Dogs]

Thanks Benny

Pure coincidence again?

 

[Ah12]

It’s poison. It’s a 15:1 chance.

Are you giving Private Eye any? Thought Buenos Noches run was just as good in the shorts.

 

[iluvparis]

Are you giving Private Eye any? Thought Buenos Noches run was just as good in the shorts.

Yeah I think PE is a winning chance and is about the right price.

 

[Moonatic77]

Thanks Benny

Bloke tipped a 16/1 pop last week!

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Got a refund for Archo Nacho in the Coolmore on Lads but SB still a live bet?

 

[iluvparis]

Got a refund for Archo Nacho in the Coolmore on Lads but SB still a live bet?

It’s gone for a spell

 

[iluvparis]

PARIS'S ONE MINUTE EVEREST FORM GUIDE

I WISH I WIN - Repeat of his TJ win beats these easily and he'd be 6/4 off that run. Some doubt whether he can do it under this race shape but more than enough juice in price to find out.
PRIVATE EYE - Ultra consistent but normally finds one or two better at the true top level. If nothing goes massive he is good enough to pick up the pieces.
THINK ABOUT IT - Winners just win and one of the few unexposed horses in the race with form good enough to win. Looks well found at current odds but appears the main danger.
MAZU - Looks cooked - only chance is if there is an unexpected monsoon in the next 24 hours.
OVERPASS - Lacks the class to win but looks the only leader which will leave him in the race for a long way. If any of the better chances get a fair crack at him he won't be able to hold on.
BUENOS NOCHES - Has come back well but too many here have more ability so he needs to many others to run down to win.
HAWAII FIVE OH - On a huge upward spiral since moving to Gai and improved massively second up when running TAI to a bees dick. Could swoop on them late Giga Kick style and looks the best of the double figures horses.
ALCOHOL FREE - Her best would probably win this but is now just another cooked Yulong import. Hopefully sent out as a pacemaker.
IN SECRET - A mini Bivouac who is lengths better down the straight. Nothing in her form around a bend suggests she is good enough to win this.
ESPIONA - Has come back super (albeit mares grade). Blowout chance if their is a total pace collapse and Hugh can get her bursting through the inside late.
SHINZO - Golden slipper winner of an abnormal prep who went awful first up. Genuine 100s chance.
CYLINDER - Maps to absolute perfection and gets every chance to win for the 3yo generation but his age group looks to be well off the standard required to win a race like this.

Backable - I Wish I Win, Hawaii Five Oh
Saveable - Think About It, Private Eye
Sackable - Cylinder, In Secret

 

[Sockeye]

Fully in the IWIW camp because reckon he is a genuine superstar however I'm wary of these 3yo's. They are now basically mature horses but only get 53kg, and both drawn well.

 

[iluvparis]

Fully in the IWIW camp because reckon he is a genuine superstar however I'm wary of these 3yo's. They are now basically mature horses but only get 53kg, and both drawn well.

Spring 3yos are not mature horses. On official ratings Cylinder should be getting 7.5kg's off IWIW but only gets 5.5. (plus they are no good)

 

[Joker91]

Are you giving Private Eye any? Thought Buenos Noches run was just as good in the shorts.

Private Eye and Overpass both had tougher runs in transit and he couldn't go past either of them?
Also had extra run under the belt, now meets them both worse at the weights.